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grol Offline
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Post: #21
RE: RPI
My assessment is (just like last year's postseason proved) the team can play with anyone out there. The only thing that seems to be missing is consistent hitting. I know hitting "comes and goes," but we've had some games against pitchers with mediocre records who were able to up there game (perhaps) and keep us in check -- thinking most recently of the first 7 innings against A&M.
04-27-2014 12:24 PM
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13thOwl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: RPI
(04-27-2014 12:24 PM)grol Wrote:  My assessment is (just like last year's postseason proved) the team can play with anyone out there. The only thing that seems to be missing is consistent hitting. I know hitting "comes and goes," but we've had some games against pitchers with mediocre records who were able to up there game (perhaps) and keep us in check -- thinking most recently of the first 7 innings against A&M.

I think a lot of us are thinking we have seen this movie. This Rice team looks to be on track to earn a lot of its preseason goals: on track to win the CUSA regular season, on track to win at least 40 wins (including the CUSA tournament games), looking like a Regional host, and in the discussion for hosting a Super Regional. But our minds remind us that Texas Tech actually beat Rice for the first time in years, that UH now has custody of the Glove of Love for the first time in years, that Stephens is out for the year, that Zech is an unknown until he actually pitches in games after he returns from his injury and that at times the Rice team looks like they could take batting practice in a hotel lobby and not break a lamp. The best sports movies toy with your heart. They have quietly earned their lofty RPI ranking. They have earned my support. I am willing to suspend my logical suspicion of their post season chances and begin to believe.
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2014 01:37 PM by 13thOwl.)
04-27-2014 12:54 PM
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grol Offline
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Post: #23
RE: RPI
Sorenson has nothing over your prose, 13th
04-27-2014 01:30 PM
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Gravy Owl Offline
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Post: #24
RE: RPI
Well, the fundamental flaw in RPI has been evident to those who pay attention for years.

Fitt's tweak might help Arkansas in this particular case (though unless he ran the numbers for all the nearby teams, even he doesn't really know) but RPI-with-Fitt's-tweak still has the same fundamental flaw as RPI, and it won't be hard to find some team who is rated incorrectly.

Want a better metric? Use ISR.
04-27-2014 04:01 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #25
RPI
It's hard to sympathize with an apologist for Arkansas self-made and deplorable problem of prohibiting competition with in-state schools.
04-27-2014 05:30 PM
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JOwl Offline
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Post: #26
RE: RPI
(04-27-2014 05:30 PM)I45owl Wrote:  It's hard to sympathize with an apologist for Arkansas self-made and deplorable problem of prohibiting competition with in-state schools.

Not just that, but that it's hard to find midweek competition because "Northwest Arkansas is an expensive place to fly into" -- as if it's their divine right to play every midweeker at home. Which they've just about done, of course; they have exactly one midweek road game on their schedule this year.

That highlights one of the newer flaws of the RPI. Last year's new RPI formula overdid the home/road weighting differentials. Teams with home-baked schedules are getting a bit screwed, as the formula over-corrects for the advantage they've given themselves. Hard to feel sorry for them, of course, especially since we play a bit more reasonable schedule. (I think it's the RPI's extreme home/road adjustments, coupled with our reasonable schedule of 23 home/19 road vs UTs unreasonable 29/12, that is causing us to be a bit overrated and above UT in the RPI, going into today's competitions).
04-27-2014 05:52 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #27
RE: RPI
(04-27-2014 05:52 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 05:30 PM)I45owl Wrote:  It's hard to sympathize with an apologist for Arkansas self-made and deplorable problem of prohibiting competition with in-state schools.

Not just that, but that it's hard to find midweek competition because "Northwest Arkansas is an expensive place to fly into" -- as if it's their divine right to play every midweeker at home. Which they've just about done, of course; they have exactly one midweek road game on their schedule this year.

That highlights one of the newer flaws of the RPI. Last year's new RPI formula overdid the home/road weighting differentials. Teams with home-baked schedules are getting a bit screwed, as the formula over-corrects for the advantage they've given themselves. Hard to feel sorry for them, of course, especially since we play a bit more reasonable schedule. (I think it's the RPI's extreme home/road adjustments, coupled with our reasonable schedule of 23 home/19 road vs UTs unreasonable 29/12, that is causing us to be a bit overrated and above UT in the RPI, going into today's competitions).

??? I don't think they overcompensated in the slightest. In fact, I really think it would be even fairer if they left the home loss penalty the same it currently is, but inreased the road win bonus even further. What has hurt Arkansas is not so much their home-baked schedule against powderpuff opposition, but that fact that they lost several of those games. The primary difference between them and UH (who also played a home-baked OOC schedule) is that the Coogs played tougher opponents and won almost all of those games. Aaron Fitt should know better than to shed such tears for Arkansas or any other SEC (e.g., LSU, Kentucky and South Carolina are in the same boat), Big 12 (Aggies, OSU, Tech) or ACC (FSU, GT, Clemson, NC St) who play such a home-baked, weak OOC schedule.
04-27-2014 06:04 PM
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JOwl Offline
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Post: #28
RE: RPI
(04-27-2014 06:04 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 05:52 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 05:30 PM)I45owl Wrote:  It's hard to sympathize with an apologist for Arkansas self-made and deplorable problem of prohibiting competition with in-state schools.

Not just that, but that it's hard to find midweek competition because "Northwest Arkansas is an expensive place to fly into" -- as if it's their divine right to play every midweeker at home. Which they've just about done, of course; they have exactly one midweek road game on their schedule this year.

That highlights one of the newer flaws of the RPI. Last year's new RPI formula overdid the home/road weighting differentials. Teams with home-baked schedules are getting a bit screwed, as the formula over-corrects for the advantage they've given themselves. Hard to feel sorry for them, of course, especially since we play a bit more reasonable schedule. (I think it's the RPI's extreme home/road adjustments, coupled with our reasonable schedule of 23 home/19 road vs UTs unreasonable 29/12, that is causing us to be a bit overrated and above UT in the RPI, going into today's competitions).

??? I don't think they overcompensated in the slightest. In fact, I really think it would be even fairer if they left the home loss penalty the same it currently is, but inreased the road win bonus even further. What has hurt Arkansas is not so much their home-baked schedule against powderpuff opposition, but that fact that they lost several of those games. The primary difference between them and UH (who also played a home-baked OOC schedule) is that the Coogs played tougher opponents and won almost all of those games. Aaron Fitt should know better than to shed such tears for Arkansas or any other SEC (e.g., LSU, Kentucky and South Carolina are in the same boat), Big 12 (Aggies, OSU, Tech) or ACC (FSU, GT, Clemson, NC St) who play such a home-baked, weak OOC schedule.

Question, Walt - what do you think the current home/road adjustments are?
04-27-2014 06:46 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #29
RE: RPI
(04-27-2014 06:46 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 06:04 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 05:52 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 05:30 PM)I45owl Wrote:  It's hard to sympathize with an apologist for Arkansas self-made and deplorable problem of prohibiting competition with in-state schools.

Not just that, but that it's hard to find midweek competition because "Northwest Arkansas is an expensive place to fly into" -- as if it's their divine right to play every midweeker at home. Which they've just about done, of course; they have exactly one midweek road game on their schedule this year.

That highlights one of the newer flaws of the RPI. Last year's new RPI formula overdid the home/road weighting differentials. Teams with home-baked schedules are getting a bit screwed, as the formula over-corrects for the advantage they've given themselves. Hard to feel sorry for them, of course, especially since we play a bit more reasonable schedule. (I think it's the RPI's extreme home/road adjustments, coupled with our reasonable schedule of 23 home/19 road vs UTs unreasonable 29/12, that is causing us to be a bit overrated and above UT in the RPI, going into today's competitions).

??? I don't think they overcompensated in the slightest. In fact, I really think it would be even fairer if they left the home loss penalty the same it currently is, but inreased the road win bonus even further. What has hurt Arkansas is not so much their home-baked schedule against powderpuff opposition, but that fact that they lost several of those games. The primary difference between them and UH (who also played a home-baked OOC schedule) is that the Coogs played tougher opponents and won almost all of those games. Aaron Fitt should know better than to shed such tears for Arkansas or any other SEC (e.g., LSU, Kentucky and South Carolina are in the same boat), Big 12 (Aggies, OSU, Tech) or ACC (FSU, GT, Clemson, NC St) who play such a home-baked, weak OOC schedule.

Question, Walt - what do you think the current home/road adjustments are?

Home win counts 0.7, while a road win counts 1.3.
04-27-2014 07:52 PM
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JOwl Offline
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Post: #30
RE: RPI
(04-27-2014 07:52 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 06:46 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 06:04 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 05:52 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 05:30 PM)I45owl Wrote:  It's hard to sympathize with an apologist for Arkansas self-made and deplorable problem of prohibiting competition with in-state schools.

Not just that, but that it's hard to find midweek competition because "Northwest Arkansas is an expensive place to fly into" -- as if it's their divine right to play every midweeker at home. Which they've just about done, of course; they have exactly one midweek road game on their schedule this year.

That highlights one of the newer flaws of the RPI. Last year's new RPI formula overdid the home/road weighting differentials. Teams with home-baked schedules are getting a bit screwed, as the formula over-corrects for the advantage they've given themselves. Hard to feel sorry for them, of course, especially since we play a bit more reasonable schedule. (I think it's the RPI's extreme home/road adjustments, coupled with our reasonable schedule of 23 home/19 road vs UTs unreasonable 29/12, that is causing us to be a bit overrated and above UT in the RPI, going into today's competitions).

??? I don't think they overcompensated in the slightest. In fact, I really think it would be even fairer if they left the home loss penalty the same it currently is, but inreased the road win bonus even further. What has hurt Arkansas is not so much their home-baked schedule against powderpuff opposition, but that fact that they lost several of those games. The primary difference between them and UH (who also played a home-baked OOC schedule) is that the Coogs played tougher opponents and won almost all of those games. Aaron Fitt should know better than to shed such tears for Arkansas or any other SEC (e.g., LSU, Kentucky and South Carolina are in the same boat), Big 12 (Aggies, OSU, Tech) or ACC (FSU, GT, Clemson, NC St) who play such a home-baked, weak OOC schedule.

Question, Walt - what do you think the current home/road adjustments are?

Home win counts 0.7, while a road win counts 1.3.

Which dramatically overstates the advantage of playing at home. The NCAA notes that home teams win 62% of the time, but that data is skewed by the fact that the top teams play most of their games at home. Boyd points out that home teams win 55% of intraconference games (which don't have any better-team bias), which yield corrective weightings of 0.9/1.1, much less impactful than 0.7/1.3.
04-27-2014 08:23 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #31
RPI
(04-27-2014 08:23 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 07:52 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 06:46 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 06:04 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-27-2014 05:52 PM)JOwl Wrote:  Not just that, but that it's hard to find midweek competition because "Northwest Arkansas is an expensive place to fly into" -- as if it's their divine right to play every midweeker at home. Which they've just about done, of course; they have exactly one midweek road game on their schedule this year.

That highlights one of the newer flaws of the RPI. Last year's new RPI formula overdid the home/road weighting differentials. Teams with home-baked schedules are getting a bit screwed, as the formula over-corrects for the advantage they've given themselves. Hard to feel sorry for them, of course, especially since we play a bit more reasonable schedule. (I think it's the RPI's extreme home/road adjustments, coupled with our reasonable schedule of 23 home/19 road vs UTs unreasonable 29/12, that is causing us to be a bit overrated and above UT in the RPI, going into today's competitions).

??? I don't think they overcompensated in the slightest. In fact, I really think it would be even fairer if they left the home loss penalty the same it currently is, but inreased the road win bonus even further. What has hurt Arkansas is not so much their home-baked schedule against powderpuff opposition, but that fact that they lost several of those games. The primary difference between them and UH (who also played a home-baked OOC schedule) is that the Coogs played tougher opponents and won almost all of those games. Aaron Fitt should know better than to shed such tears for Arkansas or any other SEC (e.g., LSU, Kentucky and South Carolina are in the same boat), Big 12 (Aggies, OSU, Tech) or ACC (FSU, GT, Clemson, NC St) who play such a home-baked, weak OOC schedule.

Question, Walt - what do you think the current home/road adjustments are?

Home win counts 0.7, while a road win counts 1.3.

Which dramatically overstates the advantage of playing at home. The NCAA notes that home teams win 62% of the time, but that data is skewed by the fact that the top teams play most of their games at home. Boyd points out that home teams win 55% of intraconference games (which don't have any better-team bias), which yield corrective weightings of 0.9/1.1, much less impactful than 0.7/1.3.

But using a weighting based purely on the winning percentage you quoted dramatically UNDERSTATES the cumulative effect on a team playing an unbalanced schedule of, say, 2/3 or 3/4 at home, or 2/3 or more on the road.

If you want to play em all at home, sell lots of tickets and save your team the stress of travel, great.
But there is a repercussion in RPI. So just win them all and you'll be fine (UH).
04-27-2014 09:42 PM
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Post: #32
RE: RPI
(04-27-2014 09:42 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  But using a weighting based purely on the winning percentage you quoted dramatically UNDERSTATES the cumulative effect on a team playing an unbalanced schedule of, say, 2/3 or 3/4 at home, or 2/3 or more on the road.

If you want to play em all at home, sell lots of tickets and save your team the stress of travel, great.
But there is a repercussion in RPI. So just win them all and you'll be fine (UH).

Right. The alternative (aside from using a better system like ISR) is to simply set a max number of home games that a team could play, but that could make it harder for northern teams to find early season opponents.
04-27-2014 10:10 PM
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Post: #33
RE: RPI
"Opponents marked in red will do damage to the team's RPI, even if the team beats them. Opponents marked in yellow will do damage if the team loses to them. Opponents marked in green will improve RPI, even if the team loses to them."

I feel like that should be enough to show the problems with RPI. When simply having a team on your schedule improves or hurts your ranking regardless of the result you have screwed up.
04-28-2014 07:51 AM
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Post: #34
RE: RPI
(04-28-2014 07:51 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  "Opponents marked in red will do damage to the team's RPI, even if the team beats them. Opponents marked in yellow will do damage if the team loses to them. Opponents marked in green will improve RPI, even if the team loses to them."

I feel like that should be enough to show the problems with RPI. When simply having a team on your schedule improves or hurts your ranking regardless of the result you have screwed up.

This is true of ISR, as well, but in both cases it's only true in the extreme. In other words, the only time losing to another team will improve your RPI is if you have a very poor RPI ranking (e.g., sub-150) and lose to a team in the Top 25 - 50. Conversely, a team will only hurt RPI by winning if they're a Top 25 team and lose at home to a sub-150 RPI team.
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2014 08:32 AM by waltgreenberg.)
04-28-2014 08:19 AM
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NicevilleWRC Offline
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Post: #35
RE: RPI
(04-28-2014 08:19 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 07:51 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  "Opponents marked in red will do damage to the team's RPI, even if the team beats them. Opponents marked in yellow will do damage if the team loses to them. Opponents marked in green will improve RPI, even if the team loses to them."

I feel like that should be enough to show the problems with RPI. When simply having a team on your schedule improves or hurts your ranking regardless of the result you have screwed up.

This is true of ISR, as well, but in both cases it's only true in the extreme. In other words, the only time losing to another team will improve your RPI is if you have a very poor RPI ranking (e.g., sub-150) and lose to a team in the Top 25 - 50. Conversely, a team will only hurt RPI by winning if they're a Top 25 team and lose at home to a sub-150 RPI team.

According to Boyd, this is not at all true. We are currently #5 in RPI, Houston #2, and yet if we lose to them it will raise our RPI. Same for ULaLa (#13), Lousiana State (#36), Sam Houston State (#50), Dallas Baptist (#73), and TCU (#103). I don't know how exactly he determined that, but that's what his website claims.
04-28-2014 09:08 AM
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Post: #36
RE: RPI
(04-28-2014 09:08 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 08:19 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 07:51 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  "Opponents marked in red will do damage to the team's RPI, even if the team beats them. Opponents marked in yellow will do damage if the team loses to them. Opponents marked in green will improve RPI, even if the team loses to them."

I feel like that should be enough to show the problems with RPI. When simply having a team on your schedule improves or hurts your ranking regardless of the result you have screwed up.

This is true of ISR, as well, but in both cases it's only true in the extreme. In other words, the only time losing to another team will improve your RPI is if you have a very poor RPI ranking (e.g., sub-150) and lose to a team in the Top 25 - 50. Conversely, a team will only hurt RPI by winning if they're a Top 25 team and lose at home to a sub-150 RPI team.

According to Boyd, this is not at all true. We are currently #5 in RPI, Houston #2, and yet if we lose to them it will raise our RPI. Same for ULaLa (#13), Lousiana State (#36), Sam Houston State (#50), Dallas Baptist (#73), and TCU (#103). I don't know how exactly he determined that, but that's what his website claims.

If you look carefully, Boyd put in the wrong data this morning. It say's it's as of April 28th, but the W-L record and RPIs are from a month ago. I'm pretty sure we're sitting at #7 or #8 right now, but it's a pretty tight cluster between #3 and #13.
04-28-2014 09:14 AM
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Post: #37
RE: RPI
(04-28-2014 09:08 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 08:19 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 07:51 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  "Opponents marked in red will do damage to the team's RPI, even if the team beats them. Opponents marked in yellow will do damage if the team loses to them. Opponents marked in green will improve RPI, even if the team loses to them."

I feel like that should be enough to show the problems with RPI. When simply having a team on your schedule improves or hurts your ranking regardless of the result you have screwed up.

This is true of ISR, as well, but in both cases it's only true in the extreme. In other words, the only time losing to another team will improve your RPI is if you have a very poor RPI ranking (e.g., sub-150) and lose to a team in the Top 25 - 50. Conversely, a team will only hurt RPI by winning if they're a Top 25 team and lose at home to a sub-150 RPI team.

According to Boyd, this is not at all true. We are currently #5 in RPI, Houston #2, and yet if we lose to them it will raise our RPI. Same for ULaLa (#13), Lousiana State (#36), Sam Houston State (#50), Dallas Baptist (#73), and TCU (#103). I don't know how exactly he determined that, but that's what his website claims.

Guy asked me to jump in. I don't have a whole lot to add, having missed whatever Aaron said last week, but I'll mention one thing and then try to pay attention to the thread for a couple of days (unless you'd rather I didn't; I seldom poke my nose in on team sites). One thing that's worth mentioning (and that may be a reason to update the legend text on that report) is that it matters a lot now where the game is scheduled. Houston would help you if you play them there; they probably wouldn't if you played them at home.
04-28-2014 09:21 AM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #38
RE: RPI
(04-28-2014 09:21 AM)boydnation Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 09:08 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 08:19 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 07:51 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  "Opponents marked in red will do damage to the team's RPI, even if the team beats them. Opponents marked in yellow will do damage if the team loses to them. Opponents marked in green will improve RPI, even if the team loses to them."

I feel like that should be enough to show the problems with RPI. When simply having a team on your schedule improves or hurts your ranking regardless of the result you have screwed up.

This is true of ISR, as well, but in both cases it's only true in the extreme. In other words, the only time losing to another team will improve your RPI is if you have a very poor RPI ranking (e.g., sub-150) and lose to a team in the Top 25 - 50. Conversely, a team will only hurt RPI by winning if they're a Top 25 team and lose at home to a sub-150 RPI team.

According to Boyd, this is not at all true. We are currently #5 in RPI, Houston #2, and yet if we lose to them it will raise our RPI. Same for ULaLa (#13), Lousiana State (#36), Sam Houston State (#50), Dallas Baptist (#73), and TCU (#103). I don't know how exactly he determined that, but that's what his website claims.

Guy asked me to jump in. I don't have a whole lot to add, having missed whatever Aaron said last week, but I'll mention one thing and then try to pay attention to the thread for a couple of days (unless you'd rather I didn't; I seldom poke my nose in on team sites). One thing that's worth mentioning (and that may be a reason to update the legend text on that report) is that it matters a lot now where the game is scheduled. Houston would help you if you play them there; they probably wouldn't if you played them at home.

Thanks, Boyd. BTW, you still have old data (from a month ago) on your site for "current ISR'RPI".
04-28-2014 09:29 AM
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Post: #39
RE: RPI
(04-28-2014 09:29 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 09:21 AM)boydnation Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 09:08 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 08:19 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-28-2014 07:51 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  "Opponents marked in red will do damage to the team's RPI, even if the team beats them. Opponents marked in yellow will do damage if the team loses to them. Opponents marked in green will improve RPI, even if the team loses to them."

I feel like that should be enough to show the problems with RPI. When simply having a team on your schedule improves or hurts your ranking regardless of the result you have screwed up.

This is true of ISR, as well, but in both cases it's only true in the extreme. In other words, the only time losing to another team will improve your RPI is if you have a very poor RPI ranking (e.g., sub-150) and lose to a team in the Top 25 - 50. Conversely, a team will only hurt RPI by winning if they're a Top 25 team and lose at home to a sub-150 RPI team.

According to Boyd, this is not at all true. We are currently #5 in RPI, Houston #2, and yet if we lose to them it will raise our RPI. Same for ULaLa (#13), Lousiana State (#36), Sam Houston State (#50), Dallas Baptist (#73), and TCU (#103). I don't know how exactly he determined that, but that's what his website claims.

Guy asked me to jump in. I don't have a whole lot to add, having missed whatever Aaron said last week, but I'll mention one thing and then try to pay attention to the thread for a couple of days (unless you'd rather I didn't; I seldom poke my nose in on team sites). One thing that's worth mentioning (and that may be a reason to update the legend text on that report) is that it matters a lot now where the game is scheduled. Houston would help you if you play them there; they probably wouldn't if you played them at home.

Thanks, Boyd. BTW, you still have old data (from a month ago) on your site for "current ISR'RPI".

It's updating now; the scores feed from d1baseball.com truncated last night.
04-28-2014 09:37 AM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #40
RE: RPI
Not that we need a reminder, but just to give you an idea how quickly things can change-- 2 1/2 weeks ago, UT was #2 in RPI and projected by several of the pundits to be the #1 overall national seed...today, after being swept by TCU and home, and losing a home weekend series to OSU, they're down to #15 in RPI, and stuck in 4th place in the Big 12...and that's precisely why I made the point at the time not to put too much stock into Boyd's "needs report" (as most of the teams ahead of us at the time were not going to continue winning at the same pace or maintaining their RPI; not with many of them having the toughest part of their schedules remaining-- including a greater share of road games).
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2014 10:04 AM by waltgreenberg.)
04-28-2014 09:58 AM
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