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Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
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Crebman Offline
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Post: #121
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 11:13 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 11:10 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  
(04-22-2014 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Independents outnumber the entire listed membership of both Republicans and Democrats. They are 40% of the electorate and growing. (Shocking, I know, that 8 years of Dubya and Obama could make people swear off both parties.) You can get ZERO Evangelical votes but pick up 2 out of 3 independents and win the Presidency handily.

That concludes today's lesson in electoral maths.

So the assumption is that everyone currently not registered to vote must be an Independent? That's really the only way your "electoral math" works.

I'm registered as a Republican but I identify myself as an Independent. Really makes no difference for me come election time.

How is anyone "registered" as a republican or democrat? I don't recall having to tell anyone that I was one or the other?

I think in many states you have to if you want to vote in primaries.
04-24-2014 11:16 AM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #122
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
Virginia doesn't ask and the primaries are open, but if both parties are holding a primary, you pick a ballot at the polls.
04-24-2014 11:20 AM
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blunderbuss Offline
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Post: #123
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 11:16 AM)Crebman Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 11:13 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 11:10 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  
(04-22-2014 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Independents outnumber the entire listed membership of both Republicans and Democrats. They are 40% of the electorate and growing. (Shocking, I know, that 8 years of Dubya and Obama could make people swear off both parties.) You can get ZERO Evangelical votes but pick up 2 out of 3 independents and win the Presidency handily.

That concludes today's lesson in electoral maths.

So the assumption is that everyone currently not registered to vote must be an Independent? That's really the only way your "electoral math" works.

I'm registered as a Republican but I identify myself as an Independent. Really makes no difference for me come election time.

How is anyone "registered" as a republican or democrat? I don't recall having to tell anyone that I was one or the other?

I think in many states you have to if you want to vote in primaries.

Correct, that's how it is in NC. Not sure about other states.
04-24-2014 11:20 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #124
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 11:20 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 11:16 AM)Crebman Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 11:13 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 11:10 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  
(04-22-2014 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Independents outnumber the entire listed membership of both Republicans and Democrats. They are 40% of the electorate and growing. (Shocking, I know, that 8 years of Dubya and Obama could make people swear off both parties.) You can get ZERO Evangelical votes but pick up 2 out of 3 independents and win the Presidency handily.

That concludes today's lesson in electoral maths.

So the assumption is that everyone currently not registered to vote must be an Independent? That's really the only way your "electoral math" works.

I'm registered as a Republican but I identify myself as an Independent. Really makes no difference for me come election time.

How is anyone "registered" as a republican or democrat? I don't recall having to tell anyone that I was one or the other?

I think in many states you have to if you want to vote in primaries.

Correct, that's how it is in NC. Not sure about other states.

Rules vary widely across the country. In some places, you can only vote in the Republican primary if you are a registered Republican. In others, an independent (or as NC describes them, unaffiliated) can vote in either party's primary (but not both). In still others, a Republican can vote in the Democratic primary and vice versa.

And, of course, registering with either party, or none, is not indicative of how you will vote. It is not correct to assert, or assume, that being "independent" or "unaffiliated" means that you are equally likely to vote for one party or the other. The number of true "swing" voters is probably less than 10% in my estimation, not anywhere near 40%.
04-24-2014 11:44 AM
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Fitbud Offline
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Post: #125
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
I know that in the state of Texas, you can vote in a primary and they will make a note of it so that you cannot vote in the primary of a different party.

I have voted in a democratic primary before but that doesn't exclude me from voting in a republican primary this time around does it?
04-24-2014 11:49 AM
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olliebaba Offline
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Post: #126
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
I voted in the demo. primary this year and when the lady at the polls asked, "republican or demo?" I thought I had been outed. But then I remembered that as an independent which I "really" am I was okay.
04-24-2014 02:40 PM
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Hitch Offline
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Post: #127
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-23-2014 09:39 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  
(04-23-2014 09:32 AM)Hitch Wrote:  
(04-23-2014 09:23 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  
(04-23-2014 09:12 AM)Hitch Wrote:  
(04-23-2014 09:08 AM)oklalittledixie Wrote:  Ha ha, that's not going to work. You've got a third party for that. It's never going to happen. We need to purge the GOP of left wingers who are in denial and focus on our core platform.

Uh huh... This is another BS bluff. There is no way that the formation of some sort of theocratic third party is going to result in conservative electoral victories.

You're not getting this...

If "conservative" electoral victories mean no action on abortion I don't care how many are won/lost...

Ill not sell my soul to fix the national debt or curb presidential war powers...

Regan got it, and nobody in the GOP seems to get it anymore. You could very easily appease the religious right by protecting their freedom of association and worship while passing the deeper issues of gay marriage onto the states.

But you have no interest in that. You are the one crying "my way or the highway"...

Then go and do it already. Continuously threatening to leave in order to try and force the party to the right isn't a viable long term strategy. Either go and form your third party or get in line with the future of the GOP. Either way, the time for that change is now, not in 2017.

Already did, as did many evangelicals and it cost the GOP the 2012 election... But yea keep pushing us out hoping you can out lib the democrats on social issues.

Then why put in effort to try and win you back? If the GOP has already begun shedding the religious right baggage, then now is the perfect time to move the party forward.
04-24-2014 03:09 PM
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Bull_In_Exile Offline
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Post: #128
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 03:09 PM)Hitch Wrote:  
(04-23-2014 09:39 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  
(04-23-2014 09:32 AM)Hitch Wrote:  
(04-23-2014 09:23 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  
(04-23-2014 09:12 AM)Hitch Wrote:  Uh huh... This is another BS bluff. There is no way that the formation of some sort of theocratic third party is going to result in conservative electoral victories.

You're not getting this...

If "conservative" electoral victories mean no action on abortion I don't care how many are won/lost...

Ill not sell my soul to fix the national debt or curb presidential war powers...

Regan got it, and nobody in the GOP seems to get it anymore. You could very easily appease the religious right by protecting their freedom of association and worship while passing the deeper issues of gay marriage onto the states.

But you have no interest in that. You are the one crying "my way or the highway"...

Then go and do it already. Continuously threatening to leave in order to try and force the party to the right isn't a viable long term strategy. Either go and form your third party or get in line with the future of the GOP. Either way, the time for that change is now, not in 2017.

Already did, as did many evangelicals and it cost the GOP the 2012 election... But yea keep pushing us out hoping you can out lib the democrats on social issues.

Then why put in effort to try and win you back? If the GOP has already begun shedding the religious right baggage, then now is the perfect time to move the party forward.

Because now I am "an independent"... I though you wanted independents right?

Have fun trying to move far enough left to catch the democrats.... If you run Rand Paul I will happily vote gop, if you run Christy... well not so much.
04-24-2014 03:52 PM
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mlb Offline
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Post: #129
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 03:52 PM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Because now I am "an independent"... I though you wanted independents right?

Have fun trying to move far enough left to catch the democrats.... If you run Rand Paul I will happily vote gop, if you run Christy... well not so much.

You better be careful... before you know it Oklalittledixie will brand you a liberal who causes Democrats to get elected. You must toe the RNC line at all times!
04-24-2014 03:54 PM
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Hitch Offline
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Post: #130
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 03:52 PM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Because now I am "an independent"... I though you wanted independents right?

Nope, I want the GOP to target moderates.
04-24-2014 04:06 PM
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Frank the Tank Online
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Post: #131
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-23-2014 08:54 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  We tried Option 1 with Mitt Romney. Not a single swing state was delivered and conservatives staying home cost the GOP VA, OH, and FL and put NC in jeopardy. Not even counting 2008 since Obama had deity status... don't think Reagan would have beat him.

Even if I were to just grant you that Romney lost those states because Evangelicals stayed home (which, to be clear, I don't agree with at all), here's the simple problem with the GOP electoral college math: Romney still would have lost even if he had won ALL of those states. VA, OH and FL provided a total of 60 electoral votes. Even if those flipped over to the Romney side, Obama still would have had 272 electoral votes (2 more than what would be needed to win the election).

As a result, EVEN if you believe that the best way to win those swing states is to drive evangelical turnout (and once again, I HIGHLY disagree with that strategy, especially in the cases of Virginia and Florida with their new demographics), the Republicans still have to flip at least one state where a socially conservative agenda is going to be a MAJOR negative. Colorado isn't voting that way anymore. Nevada isn't voting that way anymore. New Mexico isn't voting that way anymore. Who the heck is flipping over that's going to give any credence to social conservatism? However, those interior western states have definitely shown to have a libertarian streak - you show voters in those states that the government is getting out of people's lives (BOTH on fiscal AND social issues - the latter is where the GOP continuously has the problem) and the GOP can actually win the White House.

Social conservatives may not want to hear it, but the point is that they are an anchor on the electoral college. You might be able to ride social conservatives up to a strong 49% of the vote, but you can't get the last 2% that decides elections. As someone else said, the Republicans can absolutely win on their economic and fiscal agenda, so the choice is to at least prevail on that side of the ledger (as opposed to conceding 100% of BOTH the fiscal and social sides to the Democrats until 2024, which will be inevitable without a legit GOP candidate that can draw a wide breadth of the electorate against Hillary).
04-24-2014 04:09 PM
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nomad2u2001 Offline
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Post: #132
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 11:13 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 11:10 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  
(04-22-2014 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Independents outnumber the entire listed membership of both Republicans and Democrats. They are 40% of the electorate and growing. (Shocking, I know, that 8 years of Dubya and Obama could make people swear off both parties.) You can get ZERO Evangelical votes but pick up 2 out of 3 independents and win the Presidency handily.

That concludes today's lesson in electoral maths.

So the assumption is that everyone currently not registered to vote must be an Independent? That's really the only way your "electoral math" works.

I'm registered as a Republican but I identify myself as an Independent. Really makes no difference for me come election time.

How is anyone "registered" as a republican or democrat? I don't recall having to tell anyone that I was one or the other?

What others have said.

I'll personally never register for one because I think it hinders a person's ability to be able to stand back from the situation and think critically.
04-24-2014 04:23 PM
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Frank the Tank Online
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Post: #133
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 04:06 PM)Hitch Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 03:52 PM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Because now I am "an independent"... I though you wanted independents right?

Nope, I want the GOP to target moderates.

Several political studies have shown that people constantly overstate their independence. Lots of people *say* that they're independent and want to believe it their minds, but their actions reflect that they vote in line with one party or the other just as much as people that say that they're party members. The actual true swing vote (those with an equal propensity to vote either Democrat or Republican) is actually very small. (I recall someone saying that libertarians only constitute 2% of the electorate. Well, that 2% of the electorate is who decides the election, so they might as well be 100% of the electorate. For the purposes of the Presidency, they are the voting equivalent of Justice Kennedy on the Supreme Court, whose single vote as a swing voter means more than the larger blocs of people on the opposite ends of the political spectrum.) Constitution Party voters on the right and Green Party voters on the left aren't real independents - they're only "independent" in the sense that they're not voting for the two major parties, but they're irrelevant in Presidential elections outside of the very limited circumstances of being a spoiler (i.e. Ralph Nader voters in Florida in 2000).
(This post was last modified: 04-24-2014 04:39 PM by Frank the Tank.)
04-24-2014 04:36 PM
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Bull_In_Exile Offline
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Post: #134
RE: Huckabee: No Social Issues, No Evangelical Votes
(04-24-2014 04:06 PM)Hitch Wrote:  
(04-24-2014 03:52 PM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Because now I am "an independent"... I though you wanted independents right?

Nope, I want the GOP to target moderates.

Right because a party with no base is a great idea 01-wingedeagle
04-24-2014 06:23 PM
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