(04-23-2014 11:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-22-2014 09:58 PM)billings Wrote:  TV hates the FCS home matchups. SEC network wants more SEC and P5 matchups. Gonna be a price for all the TV money and it is a tougher schedule and the bottom of the SEC will pay that price in number of wins

It's possible that the SEC will just stay with 8 home games and their current scheduling approaches and tell ESPN, "Screw you, we're not going to make our schedules tougher just to improve your ratings."

But if they don't do that, then the top SEC teams will definitely prefer 9 conference games to any kind of concerted push to toughen the non-con schedules. If you're a team like LSU or Alabama, and you have to get more non-con games against P5 teams, you're going to have to play good or great teams because the struggling teams from other P5 leagues won't want to play you. So given the options of playing more games against, say, UCLA or Michigan State, or playing a 9th SEC game that is likely to be an extra game against a middle-of-the-pack or lower SEC team, they'll prefer the latter. That's implicit in Saban's support for a 9th conference game. He'll get the media perception of a tougher schedule without having to play two tough non-con games a year.

I'm not sure ESPN would be the "screwee" here. I just read where Alabama signed a new deal for its Tier 3 rights. Adding a 9th game only adds inventory at the margin. I don't see how ESPN, with first pick of SEC games, is affected very much. If that 9th game is going to be a "must watch" game, ESPN is going to get it. If it's likely a snoozefest, somebody like Learfield gets to air it. I would think ESPN would like as many of those games as possible aired on their competitors' networks.

(04-23-2014 05:07 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(04-23-2014 11:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-22-2014 09:58 PM)billings Wrote:  TV hates the FCS home matchups. SEC network wants more SEC and P5 matchups. Gonna be a price for all the TV money and it is a tougher schedule and the bottom of the SEC will pay that price in number of wins

It's possible that the SEC will just stay with 8 home games and their current scheduling approaches and tell ESPN, "Screw you, we're not going to make our schedules tougher just to improve your ratings."

But if they don't do that, then the top SEC teams will definitely prefer 9 conference games to any kind of concerted push to toughen the non-con schedules. If you're a team like LSU or Alabama, and you have to get more non-con games against P5 teams, you're going to have to play good or great teams because the struggling teams from other P5 leagues won't want to play you. So given the options of playing more games against, say, UCLA or Michigan State, or playing a 9th SEC game that is likely to be an extra game against a middle-of-the-pack or lower SEC team, they'll prefer the latter. That's implicit in Saban's support for a 9th conference game. He'll get the media perception of a tougher schedule without having to play two tough non-con games a year.

I'm not sure ESPN would be the "screwee" here. I just read where Alabama signed a new deal for its Tier 3 rights. Adding a 9th game only adds inventory at the margin. I don't see how ESPN, with first pick of SEC games, is affected very much. If that 9th game is going to be a "must watch" game, ESPN is going to get it. If it's likely a snoozefest, somebody like Learfield gets to air it. I would think ESPN would like as many of those games as possible aired on their competitors' networks.

It definitely affects ESPN. Their new SEC network will be showing those third tier SEC games. They'd rather air Tennessee - LSU than Middle Tennessee - LSU.

The SEC likely will make more $$ on the tier 3 than what they lose on bottom bowls they wont fill. If ACC follows suit, a couple of these new bowls may be short lived.

The AAC should stay at 8 games, adding another 1a G5 to as much as possible pad our bowl eligible schools.

Just on a lark I went and looked at the schools who won the Big 6 conferences in 1975 to get a bit of perspective on their non-conference schedules

ACC played a 5 game schedule skipping one opponent.
Champion: Maryland
Villanova, Tennessee, Kentucky, Syracuse, Penn State, Cincinnati

Big 8 played 7 game schedule facing everyone
Co-Champion: Oklahoma
Oregon, Pitt, Miami (FL), Texas

Co-Champion Nebraska:
LSU, Indiana, TCU, Miami (FL),

Big Ten played an 8 game schedule skipping one.
Penn St, North Carolina, UCLA (ended up losing undefeated season when UCLA won Rose Bowl rematch)

Pac-8 played a 7 game schedule playing everyone
Co-Champion UCLA
Iowa State, Tennessee, Air Force, Ohio State

Co-Champion Cal
Colorado, West Virginia, San Jose State, Air Force

SEC played a 6 game schedule skipping three opponents
Champion Alabama
Missouri, Clemson, Washington, TCU, Southern Miss

SWC played a 7 game schedule playing everyone
Co-Champion Arkansas
Air Force, Oklahoma State, Tulsa, Utah State

Co-Champion Texas
Colorado State, Washington, Utah State, Oklahoma

Not a lot of games against lower tier programs

The other conferences
WAC
Champion: Arizona State
Washington, TCU, Idaho, Pacific

Southern
Champion: Richmond
Cincinnati, Va Tech, Ball State, Georgia, West Virginia

Southland
Champion: Arkansas State (First year Division I football)
NW State (LA), Idaho, Memphis, Cincinnati, Chattanoga, Southern Illinois

MAC
Champion: Miami (OH)
Marshall, Michigan State, Purdue, Dayton, Cincinnati

PCAA
Champion: San Jose State
Santa Clara, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, New Mexico, Hawaii

Missouri Valley
Champion: Tulsa
Kansas State, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Memphis, Louisville, Indiana State, Houston

Ivy
Champion: Harvard
Holy Cross, Boston

This presents an interesting situation.

The champions of the elite conferences played few "lower" teams though one could argue over the high/low status of a number of the eastern and southern independents in a given year.

The champions of the second tier conferences generally played two top tier conference teams (exception AState who was first year in Division I).

So what appears to be the situation is that schools who were likely conference contenders and therefore jockeying for national ranking seemed likely to play a schedule designed to position them for national respect. Likewise the teams in second tier conferences sought out games against recognized teams in their own quest. Those teams in the elite conferences less likely to be contenders positioned for wins.

It bears remembering though that there were only 11 bowl games. Any given team had less than a 15% chance of reaching a bowl so merely reaching 6-5 was unlikely to produce post-season.

Also of interest, the number of sub .500 teams in the elite conferences.
ACC 7 members, had 5 below .500
Big 8 had 2
Big 10 had 6
Pac 8 had 3
SEC with 10 members had 3
SWC with 8 members had 4

Quote:According to Nick Saban, there's not much support for a nine-game SEC schedule

"I don't think there's any support for that, it doesn't seem like" Saban told AL.com Tuesday. "I think there's a little bit more support for staying with an eight-game schedule and everybody playing a ninth opponent that's in the five major conferences."

It sounds like the SEC is leaning toward 8 conference + 1 mandatory P5 OOC (sorry Mississippi State - you'll have to upgrade your schedule!)

(04-24-2014 09:17 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

Quote:According to Nick Saban, there's not much support for a nine-game SEC schedule

"I don't think there's any support for that, it doesn't seem like" Saban told AL.com Tuesday. "I think there's a little bit more support for staying with an eight-game schedule and everybody playing a ninth opponent that's in the five major conferences."

It sounds like the SEC is leaning toward 8 conference + 1 mandatory P5 OOC (sorry Mississippi State - you'll have to upgrade your schedule!)

Bet it isn't mandatory but rather "encouraged"

(04-24-2014 09:17 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

Quote:According to Nick Saban, there's not much support for a nine-game SEC schedule

"I don't think there's any support for that, it doesn't seem like" Saban told AL.com Tuesday. "I think there's a little bit more support for staying with an eight-game schedule and everybody playing a ninth opponent that's in the five major conferences."

It sounds like the SEC is leaning toward 8 conference + 1 mandatory P5 OOC (sorry Mississippi State - you'll have to upgrade your schedule!)

Which means Florida, Georgia and South Carolina would still be playing Coastal Carolina, the Citadel and Idaho St. ooc. Nothing would really change for them.

So an 8 + 1 would impact Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss some years, Mississippi St., Arkansas and A&M frequently and have almost no impact on anyone else as 4 schools have regular ACC rivals, Vandy, TN, LSU and Missouri pretty much play 1 P5 every year.

(04-24-2014 12:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  So an 8 + 1 would impact Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss some years, Mississippi St., Arkansas and A&M frequently and have almost no impact on anyone else as 4 schools have regular ACC rivals, Vandy, TN, LSU and Missouri pretty much play 1 P5 every year.

Consider these 2014 OOC schedules:

Vanderbilt: Temple, UMass, Charleston Southern, Old Dominion
Mississippi St: So. Miss., UAB, S Alabama, UT Martin
Ole Miss: Boise St, UL Lafayette, Memphis, Presbyterian
Texas AM: Lamar, Rice, SMU, ULM

(04-24-2014 09:47 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-24-2014 09:17 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

Quote:According to Nick Saban, there's not much support for a nine-game SEC schedule

"I don't think there's any support for that, it doesn't seem like" Saban told AL.com Tuesday. "I think there's a little bit more support for staying with an eight-game schedule and everybody playing a ninth opponent that's in the five major conferences."

It sounds like the SEC is leaning toward 8 conference + 1 mandatory P5 OOC (sorry Mississippi State - you'll have to upgrade your schedule!)

Bet it isn't mandatory but rather "encouraged"

Probably so. Likely they will "very strongly" encourage at least their top-half programs to have one P5 non-con opponent every year, but I doubt they'll force teams that usually win less than 4 SEC games to do that. They'll let those coaches continue to do everything possible to try and get to 6 overall wins.