The Aggies come into Reckling looking to bounce back from a weekend home series loss to Kentucky, and desperately seeking an RPI boost as they are fighting for their post-season lives; currently on the bubble and probably on the outside looking in. Their overall record (24 - 17) is certainly good enough, but when you peel the onion a bit one realizes that that solid record is based on an out-of-conference schedule stocked full of home games against powerderpuff teams the likes of Northwestern x 3, Sacramento State x 3, Louisiana Tech x 3, UT-Pan American x 2, Houston Baptist, Stephen F. Austin, UT-Arlington, Texas Southern, Prairie View and Abilene Christian. With that many home games against teams with RPI rankings below 150, it's a wonder their Strength of Schedule is not even worse. Outside of their W-L record, their resume is sub-par: 4-8 on the road, 8-10 in SEC (and they still have series left vs. LSU, Ole Miss, MSU and Arkansas), 9-15 vs. Top 100. If not for their road series win a couple weekends back at Vandy, and their 16-1 record against sub-150 ranked RPI clubs (10-1 vs. sub-200 clubs), they would already be out of post-season contention. The Aggies currently have national rankings of #54 in ISR, #65 in RPI and #57 in SoS (vs. #13, #9 and #18 rankings, respectively, for the Owls). Unbelievably, this week's game at Reckling will be their very first mid-week game on the road all season (after playing their first 11 consecutive 2014 mid-week games at home).

Here's their schedule and results over their first 40 games...
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/schedule/Texas-AM

Offensively, the Aggies are hitting a very respectable .284/.362/.378 as a team, with 16 HRs, 42-56 SBs and averaging a healthy 5.9 runs per game. However, after looking at their run totals for individual games, they have been feasting on mid-week and Sunday starters, and struggling against better pitching. They do not appear to be playing small ball as much as in recent seasons (with only 26 sac bunts so far), but are still very aggressive on the basepaths. Looking at the stat sheet, what jumps out is a very low frequency of both walks and strikeouts, best reflected in the numbers of their leading hitter, Cole Lankford (.319/.341/.444, 4 HRs, 8 doubles, 33 RBIs....but only 8 BBs and 9 Ks in 160 ABs). In fact, they strike out less than 5 times per game, which is an exceptional low number for a team; especially one playing in the SEC. Once can only conclude that they are a VERY aggressive at the plate, with little patience, but good contact hitters that do a very good job of putting balls in play.

Defensively, they post an above-average .971 fielding percentage, with only one everyday position player with more than 3 errors (their SS has committed 11 errors). However, they've only turned 17 ground ball double plays, and their catchers have only thrown out 20% of attempted basestealers. We may be able to run on these guys.

On the mound, they have a nationally ranked strikeout rate (8.2 Ks per game) and an excellent K:BB ratio (2.8), but their 3.56 ERA and .259 BAA are only average; especially when considering the very weak and home-baked OOC schedule. In all likelihood, their starting pitcher against us will either be Jr RHP Corey Ray (10 app, 1 start, 13.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, .191 BAA, 4 BBs, 11 Ks, 0 xtrabase hits) or So LHP Matt Kent (11 app, 4 starts, 2-0, 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, .313 BAA, 4 BBs, 19 Ks, 31 hits). Given both have pitched predominantly in mid-week games against relatively weak competition, they appear to be very hittable.

Here's the roster and stat sheet for the Aggies...
http://www.aggieathletics.com/SportSelec...SID=632713
http://www.aggieathletics.com/ViewConten...0#TEAM.MLB

Let's keep the momentum building heading into our big road weekend series vs. Southern Miss. Just win, baby! Go Owls!

Not meaning to correct you as you are the guru of all things Rice Baseball, but Boyd currently has us at #9 RPI, not #18? Is this a case where Boyd is inaccurate?

(04-21-2014 07:32 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Not meaning to correct you as you are the guru of all things Rice Baseball, but Boyd currently has us at #9 RPI, not #18? Is this a case where Boyd is inaccurate?

No, no-- mea culpa. I use Boyds. It's #13 ISR, #9 RPI, #18 SoS.

Thanks for the correction.

According to Wayne's radio show, the Aggies will start Jr RHP Corey Ray, and Rice will go with either McDowell (he's apparently still recovering from a bad flu bug which kept him out this weekend) or Caleb Smith...but he'll go expects by Committee, with both Teykl and Ditman expected to each go an inning or two.

Reeves and Hoelscher still playing in pain....JC probably will continue to rest during mid-week games (at least not play the field as Catcher). Lemond was on the show and said he's been throwing the past week with no discomfort...and Wayne indicated he'd be throwing a bullpen later this week. Barring a set-back, he'll be back in action after the Finals break. No mention of Byrd's status by anyone.

Maybe the Aggies will have to do well in the rest of the regular season and SEC tournament to get off the bubble.

(04-21-2014 08:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  No mention of Byrd's status by anyone.

We probably have more position player depth than any time in recent memory. Connor Tekyl, Kirby Taylor,and even Blake Fox. While our offense has struggled, I don't notice acute drop offs due to the absences of Hoelscher or now Byrd.

Ironically, it is on the mound where we seem to be short of bodies. We got through last weeekend with only 6 pitchers appearing.

Only 13 have appeared all season, but when you take away Stephens, Rutter, Lemond, and Willamson (token appearance), you are at 9.

Of those 9, the bottom 3 are Oreweiler, McCarthy, and Caleb Smith, each of whom is under 20 innings and above 4.00 in ERA.

It is hard to imagine winning either the CUSA tourney or a regional with only 6 pitchers, especially with our offense.

Will Lemond return for post season games?

(04-22-2014 07:33 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  

(04-21-2014 08:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  No mention of Byrd's status by anyone.

We probably have more position player depth than any time in recent memory. Connor Tekyl, Kirby Taylor,and even Blake Fox. While our offense has struggled, I don't notice acute drop offs due to the absences of Hoelscher or now Byrd.

Ironically, it is on the mound where we seem to be short of bodies. We got through last weeekend with only 6 pitchers appearing.

Only 13 have appeared all season, but when you take away Stephens, Rutter, Lemond, and Willamson (token appearance), you are at 9.

Of those 9, the bottom 3 are Oreweiler, McCarthy, and Caleb Smith, each of whom is under 20 innings and above 4.00 in ERA.

It is hard to imagine winning either the CUSA tourney or a regional with only 6 pitchers, especially with our offense.

(04-22-2014 07:33 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  It is hard to imagine winning either the CUSA tourney or a regional with only 6 pitchers, especially with our offense.

Just checked. CUSA is back to an 8 team double elimination tourney format. So minimum of 4 games, maximum of 5. That will be a real test of pitching staff depth and an excellent prep for the NCAA regional.

EDIT: the mins and maxes above presume we win it. obviously the bare minimum number of games is 2.

(04-22-2014 07:49 AM)junrice Wrote:  Will Lemond return for post season games?

(04-22-2014 07:33 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  

(04-21-2014 08:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  No mention of Byrd's status by anyone.

We probably have more position player depth than any time in recent memory. Connor Tekyl, Kirby Taylor,and even Blake Fox. While our offense has struggled, I don't notice acute drop offs due to the absences of Hoelscher or now Byrd.

Ironically, it is on the mound where we seem to be short of bodies. We got through last weeekend with only 6 pitchers appearing.

Only 13 have appeared all season, but when you take away Stephens, Rutter, Lemond, and Willamson (token appearance), you are at 9.

Of those 9, the bottom 3 are Oreweiler, McCarthy, and Caleb Smith, each of whom is under 20 innings and above 4.00 in ERA.

It is hard to imagine winning either the CUSA tourney or a regional with only 6 pitchers, especially with our offense.

1. Per previous posts in other threads (and this one!), barring a setback, Lemond will be back on the mound pitching competitively for us as soon as we return from Finals break. He's already been throwing with no discomfort, and is scheduled to throw his first bullpen off the mound on Thursday. However, The OG has hinted that he will return initially to the bullpen, and will stay there if McCanna and Duplantier continue to pitch well.

2. Aside from the injuries, what has really hurt our pitching depth has been the recent struggles with Smith, Orewiler and McCarthy, all of whom pitched well and showed promise in late Frebruary through mid-March, but have all had repeated bad outings since...with all having particular difficulty throwing strikes.

3. I'm sure Wayne and Patrick know something I/we don't, but the failure to use either Williamson or McNair out of the bullpen-- or even give them a serious opportunity to earn a role-- against tough left-handed hitters has been puzzling, to say the least.

4. What hurt us last weekend-- both offensively and defensively-- was the absence of McDowell due to what was apparently a severe flu. Thank heaven both McCanna and Duplantier went deep into the game, with Kevin throwing a complete game. Having said that, barring further injury or misfortune, we do have a mix of 7 pitchers who Wayne has trust in (Lemond, Ditman, Teykl, McDowell, McCanna, Fox and Duplantier)...and we've never had more than 7 - 8 pitchers used in the post-season. It would be certainly nice if, as has happened in previous seasons, at least one of the other three (Smith, Orewiler, McCarthy) regains his form over the break, and returns to be a consistent contributor down the stretch and into the post-season.

I definitely think McDowell and Smith will be factors for us (in a positive way) before the season ends. Smith has plus stuff - he just needs more confidence and control.

Tulane, Charlotte and Louisiana Tech are all but eliminated from the conference tournament. Looks like it's about 10 teams vying for the eight spots.

Here's the game notes from the Aggie site...

http://www.aggieathletics.com/ViewArticl...=209474769

...I inadvertently posted the wrong stats for the scheduled Aggie pitcher, Jr RHP Corey Ray...

10 app, 1 start (last week), 13.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, .191 BAA, 4 BBs, 11 Ks, 0 xtrabase hits

...of course, that mid-week game last week (and 50% of his stats), came against #247 ranked Abiline Christian at home...
5.0 IP, 0 runs, 1 BB, 5 Ks

I suspect they, as well as us, we will be going with "all staff", and the Aggies do have a quality, deep bullpen, with 3 other pitchers with 12+ appearances and ERAs under 2.85....and that doesn't even include their closer.