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Pro-Russian Protesters have seized police stations in multiple Eastern Ukraine cities. Kiev has responded by sending in special forces. One special forces soldier was killed and five people were wounded in a clash. Russia has warned that if Kiev cracks down on East Ukraine, that Russia will intervene.

Likely some major escalation will happen in the next week or so.

Again, until the Europeans get their act together and put together a set of strong responses this will continue.

Here's the level of pushback that they'll need to go to. Pick one or more of the following

1) Having Turkey close of the Bosporus to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
2) Having Sweden/Denmark cut off the Skaggarat to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
3) Abrogation of Russian natural gas purchase agreements by the Europeans
4) Closing the land borders from Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland to Russia.

Add to that

1) Massive EU assistance to Ukraine's police forces, including lethal aid.

They should consider the following steps in conjunction with the above

1) Revocation of all Russian visas to the EU/Schengen/UK Area. A requirement that every Russian citizen submit the following upon reapplication for a visa. a) Proof that they are not advocates of human rights abuses (as by the EU) or invasion of other nations b) the fact that they actually live in Russia (rather than in occupied territory - those living in Crimea must use a valid Ukrainian passport those in Transdnestria must use a Moldovan passport, those in Abkhazia or South Ossetia must use a Georgian passport - effectively banning those supportive of secession from visas) c} a requirement that the applicant prove that their assets used in travel were obtained legitimately.

2) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European agencies such as the Council of Europe and OSCE
3) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European sporting/cultural agencies, such as UEFA, Eurovision, etc.
4) Requiring all cruise ships travelling to Russia in the Baltic Sea to comply with EU wage rules - effectively ending much of St Petersburg's tourism. Announcing that a new Soccer world championship will take place outside of FIFA in 2018 if the situation is not resolved prior to that.
5) A ban on any Russian national or company transacting financially in Europe if they invest in or economically support Transdnestria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or any other breakaway nation. Enact legislation providing for the seizure of assets for compensation of those displaced by that support.
6) A lifetime ban (even if sold) on any aircraft or ship transiting to Crimean, Abkhazian, South Ossetian, or Transdnestrian airports or sea ports. A ban on airlines operating (either directly or via codeshares) routes into Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestria, or Crimea.
7) A ban on EU nations/companies/individuals doing business with Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or Transdnestria

I don't think the Europeans are prepared to do any of the above yet. They'll eventually have to go there. But only after Russia takes much of Ukraine.

(04-13-2014 09:37 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, until the Europeans get their act together and put together a set of strong responses this will continue.

Here's the level of pushback that they'll need to go to. Pick one or more of the following

1) Having Turkey close of the Bosporus to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
2) Having Sweden/Denmark cut off the Skaggarat to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
3) Abrogation of Russian natural gas purchase agreements by the Europeans
4) Closing the land borders from Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland to Russia.

Add to that

1) Massive EU assistance to Ukraine's police forces, including lethal aid.

They should consider the following steps in conjunction with the above

1) Revocation of all Russian visas to the EU/Schengen/UK Area. A requirement that every Russian citizen submit the following upon reapplication for a visa. a) Proof that they are not advocates of human rights abuses (as by the EU) or invasion of other nations b) the fact that they actually live in Russia (rather than in occupied territory - those living in Crimea must use a valid Ukrainian passport those in Transdnestria must use a Moldovan passport, those in Abkhazia or South Ossetia must use a Georgian passport - effectively banning those supportive of secession from visas) c} a requirement that the applicant prove that their assets used in travel were obtained legitimately.

2) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European agencies such as the Council of Europe and OSCE
3) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European sporting/cultural agencies, such as UEFA, Eurovision, etc.
4) Requiring all cruise ships travelling to Russia in the Baltic Sea to comply with EU wage rules - effectively ending much of St Petersburg's tourism. Announcing that a new Soccer world championship will take place outside of FIFA in 2018 if the situation is not resolved prior to that.
5) A ban on any Russian national or company transacting financially in Europe if they invest in or economically support Transdnestria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or any other breakaway nation. Enact legislation providing for the seizure of assets for compensation of those displaced by that support.
6) A lifetime ban (even if sold) on any aircraft or ship transiting to Crimean, Abkhazian, South Ossetian, or Transdnestrian airports or sea ports. A ban on airlines operating (either directly or via codeshares) routes into Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestria, or Crimea.
7) A ban on EU nations/companies/individuals doing business with Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or Transdnestria

I don't think the Europeans are prepared to do any of the above yet. They'll eventually have to go there. But only after Russia takes much of Ukraine.

You forgot about France surrendering.

Joking aside, that is a pretty good list. Nice job.

(04-13-2014 09:42 AM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  

(04-13-2014 09:37 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, until the Europeans get their act together and put together a set of strong responses this will continue.

Here's the level of pushback that they'll need to go to. Pick one or more of the following

1) Having Turkey close of the Bosporus to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
2) Having Sweden/Denmark cut off the Skaggarat to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
3) Abrogation of Russian natural gas purchase agreements by the Europeans
4) Closing the land borders from Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland to Russia.

Add to that

1) Massive EU assistance to Ukraine's police forces, including lethal aid.

They should consider the following steps in conjunction with the above

1) Revocation of all Russian visas to the EU/Schengen/UK Area. A requirement that every Russian citizen submit the following upon reapplication for a visa. a) Proof that they are not advocates of human rights abuses (as by the EU) or invasion of other nations b) the fact that they actually live in Russia (rather than in occupied territory - those living in Crimea must use a valid Ukrainian passport those in Transdnestria must use a Moldovan passport, those in Abkhazia or South Ossetia must use a Georgian passport - effectively banning those supportive of secession from visas) c} a requirement that the applicant prove that their assets used in travel were obtained legitimately.

2) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European agencies such as the Council of Europe and OSCE
3) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European sporting/cultural agencies, such as UEFA, Eurovision, etc.
4) Requiring all cruise ships travelling to Russia in the Baltic Sea to comply with EU wage rules - effectively ending much of St Petersburg's tourism. Announcing that a new Soccer world championship will take place outside of FIFA in 2018 if the situation is not resolved prior to that.
5) A ban on any Russian national or company transacting financially in Europe if they invest in or economically support Transdnestria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or any other breakaway nation. Enact legislation providing for the seizure of assets for compensation of those displaced by that support.
6) A lifetime ban (even if sold) on any aircraft or ship transiting to Crimean, Abkhazian, South Ossetian, or Transdnestrian airports or sea ports. A ban on airlines operating (either directly or via codeshares) routes into Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestria, or Crimea.
7) A ban on EU nations/companies/individuals doing business with Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or Transdnestria

I don't think the Europeans are prepared to do any of the above yet. They'll eventually have to go there. But only after Russia takes much of Ukraine.

You forgot about France surrendering.

Joking aside, that is a pretty good list. Nice job.

France is surrendering. They aren't even willing to cancel the sale of Naval ships to Russia's military

Germany is surrendering. Merkel is unwilling to take any significant steps.

Great Britain is surrendering. They're too afraid of upsetting the bankers in the City. Great Britain? More like "Little England".

This is the end of NATO.

The US should and probably will enact a new security framework that includes Eastern Europe but that isn't dependent upon France, Germany, or the UK.

(04-13-2014 09:37 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, until the Europeans get their act together and put together a set of strong responses this will continue.

Here's the level of pushback that they'll need to go to. Pick one or more of the following

1) Having Turkey close of the Bosporus to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
2) Having Sweden/Denmark cut off the Skaggarat to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
3) Abrogation of Russian natural gas purchase agreements by the Europeans
4) Closing the land borders from Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland to Russia.

Add to that

1) Massive EU assistance to Ukraine's police forces, including lethal aid.

They should consider the following steps in conjunction with the above

1) Revocation of all Russian visas to the EU/Schengen/UK Area. A requirement that every Russian citizen submit the following upon reapplication for a visa. a) Proof that they are not advocates of human rights abuses (as by the EU) or invasion of other nations b) the fact that they actually live in Russia (rather than in occupied territory - those living in Crimea must use a valid Ukrainian passport those in Transdnestria must use a Moldovan passport, those in Abkhazia or South Ossetia must use a Georgian passport - effectively banning those supportive of secession from visas) c} a requirement that the applicant prove that their assets used in travel were obtained legitimately.

2) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European agencies such as the Council of Europe and OSCE
3) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European sporting/cultural agencies, such as UEFA, Eurovision, etc.
4) Requiring all cruise ships travelling to Russia in the Baltic Sea to comply with EU wage rules - effectively ending much of St Petersburg's tourism. Announcing that a new Soccer world championship will take place outside of FIFA in 2018 if the situation is not resolved prior to that.
5) A ban on any Russian national or company transacting financially in Europe if they invest in or economically support Transdnestria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or any other breakaway nation. Enact legislation providing for the seizure of assets for compensation of those displaced by that support.
6) A lifetime ban (even if sold) on any aircraft or ship transiting to Crimean, Abkhazian, South Ossetian, or Transdnestrian airports or sea ports. A ban on airlines operating (either directly or via codeshares) routes into Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestria, or Crimea.
7) A ban on EU nations/companies/individuals doing business with Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or Transdnestria

I don't think the Europeans are prepared to do any of the above yet. They'll eventually have to go there. But only after Russia takes much of Ukraine.

And what will Europe do when Russia turns off the gas for a month?

What is lost on most is the fact that Ukraine is not an equal ally. That's their loss. It's only natural that the Europeans are unwilling to sacrifice anything for a country that isn't their own or overly important to them. Everything else is just talk.

(04-13-2014 11:45 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  

(04-13-2014 09:37 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, until the Europeans get their act together and put together a set of strong responses this will continue.

Here's the level of pushback that they'll need to go to. Pick one or more of the following

1) Having Turkey close of the Bosporus to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
2) Having Sweden/Denmark cut off the Skaggarat to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
3) Abrogation of Russian natural gas purchase agreements by the Europeans
4) Closing the land borders from Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland to Russia.

Add to that

1) Massive EU assistance to Ukraine's police forces, including lethal aid.

They should consider the following steps in conjunction with the above

1) Revocation of all Russian visas to the EU/Schengen/UK Area. A requirement that every Russian citizen submit the following upon reapplication for a visa. a) Proof that they are not advocates of human rights abuses (as by the EU) or invasion of other nations b) the fact that they actually live in Russia (rather than in occupied territory - those living in Crimea must use a valid Ukrainian passport those in Transdnestria must use a Moldovan passport, those in Abkhazia or South Ossetia must use a Georgian passport - effectively banning those supportive of secession from visas) c} a requirement that the applicant prove that their assets used in travel were obtained legitimately.

2) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European agencies such as the Council of Europe and OSCE
3) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European sporting/cultural agencies, such as UEFA, Eurovision, etc.
4) Requiring all cruise ships travelling to Russia in the Baltic Sea to comply with EU wage rules - effectively ending much of St Petersburg's tourism. Announcing that a new Soccer world championship will take place outside of FIFA in 2018 if the situation is not resolved prior to that.
5) A ban on any Russian national or company transacting financially in Europe if they invest in or economically support Transdnestria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or any other breakaway nation. Enact legislation providing for the seizure of assets for compensation of those displaced by that support.
6) A lifetime ban (even if sold) on any aircraft or ship transiting to Crimean, Abkhazian, South Ossetian, or Transdnestrian airports or sea ports. A ban on airlines operating (either directly or via codeshares) routes into Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestria, or Crimea.
7) A ban on EU nations/companies/individuals doing business with Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or Transdnestria

I don't think the Europeans are prepared to do any of the above yet. They'll eventually have to go there. But only after Russia takes much of Ukraine.

And what will Europe do when Russia turns off the gas for a month?

Europe has 3-5 months of reserves built up.

Wait for Russia to come back begging to the table. Within 2 weeks of such a boycott by Europe, Russia's economy would start to founder - badly. The MICEX would drop about half its value. The Ruble would collapse or Russia would have to spend its hard currency reserves to prop it up.

And with no exports of nat gas to Europe, there'd be much less foreign hard currency coming into Russia to replenish those hard currency reserves.

People talk about oil exports keeping Russia's economy afloat. Natural Gas exports (overwhelmingly to Europe) are much important to Russia's economy.

Russia needs to sell that natgas more than Europe needs to buy it. And while in the event of a complete and permanent break in supply, Europe could build the infrastructure to import LNG from elsewhere much more quickly than Russia could build a 4000 mile long pipeline system to China. Its true that while Europe builds LNG import terminals, Russia could be building export terminals. But they'd have to do so without US/European assistance, and they'd then have to find customers. And the US doesn't need the gas, Europe wont be buying the gas, and China already has much of its nat gas already sourced for its existing LNG facilities. Even if China was willing to buy more LNG from Russia, Russia wouldn't be able to charge China what they charge Europe (which is about 4 times what the "World Price" is as Russia indexes its nat gas sales to Crude Oil prices).

(04-13-2014 11:45 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  

(04-13-2014 09:37 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Again, until the Europeans get their act together and put together a set of strong responses this will continue.

Here's the level of pushback that they'll need to go to. Pick one or more of the following

1) Having Turkey close of the Bosporus to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
2) Having Sweden/Denmark cut off the Skaggarat to all Russian naval and merchant marine traffic
3) Abrogation of Russian natural gas purchase agreements by the Europeans
4) Closing the land borders from Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland to Russia.

Add to that

1) Massive EU assistance to Ukraine's police forces, including lethal aid.

They should consider the following steps in conjunction with the above

1) Revocation of all Russian visas to the EU/Schengen/UK Area. A requirement that every Russian citizen submit the following upon reapplication for a visa. a) Proof that they are not advocates of human rights abuses (as by the EU) or invasion of other nations b) the fact that they actually live in Russia (rather than in occupied territory - those living in Crimea must use a valid Ukrainian passport those in Transdnestria must use a Moldovan passport, those in Abkhazia or South Ossetia must use a Georgian passport - effectively banning those supportive of secession from visas) c} a requirement that the applicant prove that their assets used in travel were obtained legitimately.
2) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European agencies such as the Council of Europe and OSCE
3) Expulsion/Suspension of Russia from all intra-European sporting/cultural agencies, such as UEFA, Eurovision, etc.
4) Requiring all cruise ships travelling to Russia in the Baltic Sea to comply with EU wage rules - effectively ending much of St Petersburg's tourism. Announcing that a new Soccer world championship will take place outside of FIFA in 2018 if the situation is not resolved prior to that.
5) A ban on any Russian national or company transacting financially in Europe if they invest in or economically support Transdnestria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or any other breakaway nation. Enact legislation providing for the seizure of assets for compensation of those displaced by that support.
6) A lifetime ban (even if sold) on any aircraft or ship transiting to Crimean, Abkhazian, South Ossetian, or Transdnestrian airports or sea ports. A ban on airlines operating (either directly or via codeshares) routes into Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestria, or Crimea.
7) A ban on EU nations/companies/individuals doing business with Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or Transdnestria

I don't think the Europeans are prepared to do any of the above yet. They'll eventually have to go there. But only after Russia takes much of Ukraine.

And what will Europe do when Russia turns off the gas for a month?

Turn their attention to the US/Canada and wait for Russia to say "Oh s*** we're going broke again". But as Tom said, they're not going to do that, not because they're against Russia's actions, but they want to insure that their strength is tied into the Eastern Hemisphere as much as possible rather than having to associate with the Western Hemisphere.