I think everyone is overreacting to Saban's comments. I doubt his comments are reflective of all the AD's in the P5 conferences; much less the position the other AD's in the SEC would take. I do think some sort of separation will occur within the FBS, but I don't see it as being as drastic as some people are stating. Of course this is just my opinion.

You can't apply NFL economics to CFB.

There is no mechanism to balance the competitive field so that UAB has an equal chance to succeed like Alabama, there isn't even a mechanism to allow Mississippi State to be as competitive as Alabama.

The only mechanism is playing and counting games against the G5 and FCS.

Last season 9 schools lost more conference games than they won and still were able to qualify for post-season based on those extra wins. While 16 P5 schools failed to win enough for post-season. Those 9 used the only mechanism available to them to aid recruiting by selling "success". Take it away from them and the divide within the group becomes larger.

Last year NC State used two G5 wins and an FCS to get the only three wins they earned. Ditto Arkansas who used the same formula.

Playing exclusively P5 might be a swell idea for Alabama (so swell they follow that in their scheduling don't they?) but it insures the top group in each P5 league grows ever stronger while the bottom group grows weaker, struggling more to get donations and sponsorships and finding their tickets more difficult to sell.

The bottom half of the P5 will do anything in their power to stay in the top flight. They'll gladly take their annual beatings - and be quite happy with them!

The top 20-25 programs can simply "weed out" little brothers of the world if push comes to shove.

The increase in TV money will help alleviate the blow of poor attendance.

Many schools - for instance, Maryland and Miami (FL) - have always been more about TV viewership than real attendance anyway....

(04-14-2014 02:13 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  The bottom half of the P5 will do anything in their power to stay in the top flight. They'll gladly take their annual beatings - and be quite happy with them!

The top 20-25 programs can simply "weed out" little brothers of the world if push comes to shove.

The increase in TV money will help alleviate the blow of poor attendance.

Many schools - for instance, Maryland and Miami (FL) - have always been more about TV viewership than real attendance anyway....

They won't be happy with their annual beatings.

Try to live in the CFB world without good ticket sales, donation and sponsorship revenue.

You cannot market an athletic venture that has no chance of success. The schools are already having to dip into general university resources as it is, weaken three revenue streams and it gets worse.

(04-14-2014 11:44 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 07:04 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  ^ and there it is.

The reason the P5 will eventually say "to hell with the truce, we're forming our own subdivision"

dream on dreamer. P5 needs the G5 more than the G5 needs the P5. Let's see what happens when all of those "power conference" team come out of September 2-2 or 1-3 instead of 4-0 with fantasies of a national championship still intact. Their bandwagon fans and high dollar boosters will revolt.

Look at Ohio State- they schedule 1 P5 team a year and 3 G5(or 2 G5 and 1 FCS) teams a year for their OOC games. The one P5 is the only one they'll play on the road so that's 7 out of 8 OOC games played at home every two years. If they only play other P5 schools that number drops down to 4 out of 8, or 3 fewer. Ohio State averages $5.2m/game in ticket sales. 3 fewer home games means -$15.6m in ticket rev every two years PLUS travel expenses for 3 more road games. Even a cash cow like OSU won't walk away from that much cash just to stick it to the little guy.

Like I said, the P5 NEEDS the G5.

Couple points

1) Nobody said the P5 will never play the G5 again just because they are in a different subdivision. I mean, does the G5 not play FCS teams even though they are in a separate subdivision? Cross division games will still continue. And yeah, "we'll boycott if you dont let us in" blah blah no you wont because there are plenty of G5 teams that need a payday. And if the G5 doesn't want to play, plenty of FCS will for less money and no return games.

2) The separate subdivision ENCOURAGES better September scheduling. Right now its in Ohio State's interest to schedule nothing but nice, safe game against Miami OH or Kent State types that wont jeopardize their post season. But in a P5 league with an AQ bid to the B1G winner, its in Ohio States interest to play multiple OOC games against Stanford and Oklahoma and Clemson types that will prepare them for conference play since they can lose 1-2 of their OOC games but still be in the hunt for a NC.

I can't see how alienating millions of viewers will be good for TV revenue. I bet they could increase TV revenue and interest in college football just as much by having an 8 team (or even 12 or 16) team playoff so teams have to settle it on the field.

(04-14-2014 04:28 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 11:44 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 07:04 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  ^ and there it is.

The reason the P5 will eventually say "to hell with the truce, we're forming our own subdivision"

dream on dreamer. P5 needs the G5 more than the G5 needs the P5. Let's see what happens when all of those "power conference" team come out of September 2-2 or 1-3 instead of 4-0 with fantasies of a national championship still intact. Their bandwagon fans and high dollar boosters will revolt.

Look at Ohio State- they schedule 1 P5 team a year and 3 G5(or 2 G5 and 1 FCS) teams a year for their OOC games. The one P5 is the only one they'll play on the road so that's 7 out of 8 OOC games played at home every two years. If they only play other P5 schools that number drops down to 4 out of 8, or 3 fewer. Ohio State averages $5.2m/game in ticket sales. 3 fewer home games means -$15.6m in ticket rev every two years PLUS travel expenses for 3 more road games. Even a cash cow like OSU won't walk away from that much cash just to stick it to the little guy.

Like I said, the P5 NEEDS the G5.

Couple points

1) Nobody said the P5 will never play the G5 again just because they are in a different subdivision. I mean, does the G5 not play FCS teams even though they are in a separate subdivision? Cross division games will still continue. And yeah, "we'll boycott if you dont let us in" blah blah no you wont because there are plenty of G5 teams that need a payday. And if the G5 doesn't want to play, plenty of FCS will for less money and no return games.

2) The separate subdivision ENCOURAGES better September scheduling. Right now its in Ohio State's interest to schedule nothing but nice, safe game against Miami OH or Kent State types that wont jeopardize their post season. But in a P5 league with an AQ bid to the B1G winner, its in Ohio States interest to play multiple OOC games against Stanford and Oklahoma and Clemson types that will prepare them for conference play since they can lose 1-2 of their OOC games but still be in the hunt for a NC.

No, I think they feel they can be ready by playing OOC games against G5 teams. Probably less chance of injury, right? Builds confidence also when they win. And besides, the OOC games will mean absolutely nothing then.

(04-14-2014 03:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  You cannot market an athletic venture that has no chance of success.

A lot of schools are already marketing only the illusion of a chance of success, or maybe a chance at a watered-down definition of success that fans are less and less willing to pay for every year.

Mississippi State has about the same chance of winning the SEC in football that Boise State has. How long can they continue to bamboozle ticket-buyers and donors into thinking that beating 4 G5/FCS teams (if they can manage that) plus going 2-6 in the SEC equals success? IMO, not much longer.

And once ticket-buyers and donors are no longer willing to pay as much for that faux version of "success", i.e., once fans realize that kind of 6-6 is really no different than 3-9 against an all-P5 schedule and spend their money accordingly, then how much does it help Miss St to play that many G5/FCS games?

(04-14-2014 04:37 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I can't see how alienating millions of viewers will be good for TV revenue. I bet they could increase TV revenue and interest in college football just as much by having an 8 team (or even 12 or 16) team playoff so teams have to settle it on the field.

Kinda my theory. All the money that powers this D4 move is coming from networks. In the end, the final form will reflect whats best for the networks. I can see where culling the herd a bit might not be an issue---but cutting the number of schools in half is never going to fly.

(04-14-2014 04:28 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 11:44 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 07:04 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  ^ and there it is.

The reason the P5 will eventually say "to hell with the truce, we're forming our own subdivision"

dream on dreamer. P5 needs the G5 more than the G5 needs the P5. Let's see what happens when all of those "power conference" team come out of September 2-2 or 1-3 instead of 4-0 with fantasies of a national championship still intact. Their bandwagon fans and high dollar boosters will revolt.

Look at Ohio State- they schedule 1 P5 team a year and 3 G5(or 2 G5 and 1 FCS) teams a year for their OOC games. The one P5 is the only one they'll play on the road so that's 7 out of 8 OOC games played at home every two years. If they only play other P5 schools that number drops down to 4 out of 8, or 3 fewer. Ohio State averages $5.2m/game in ticket sales. 3 fewer home games means -$15.6m in ticket rev every two years PLUS travel expenses for 3 more road games. Even a cash cow like OSU won't walk away from that much cash just to stick it to the little guy.

Like I said, the P5 NEEDS the G5.

Couple points

1) Nobody said the P5 will never play the G5 again just because they are in a different subdivision. I mean, does the G5 not play FCS teams even though they are in a separate subdivision? Cross division games will still continue. And yeah, "we'll boycott if you dont let us in" blah blah no you wont because there are plenty of G5 teams that need a payday. And if the G5 doesn't want to play, plenty of FCS will for less money and no return games.

2) The separate subdivision ENCOURAGES better September scheduling. Right now its in Ohio State's interest to schedule nothing but nice, safe game against Miami OH or Kent State types that wont jeopardize their post season. But in a P5 league with an AQ bid to the B1G winner, its in Ohio States interest to play multiple OOC games against Stanford and Oklahoma and Clemson types that will prepare them for conference play since they can lose 1-2 of their OOC games but still be in the hunt for a NC.

1) No, that's exactly what Saban was quoted as saying, so somebody was saying it. Here's the quote from the OP-

"In his address Monday, Bowlsby seconded an opinion that Alabama coach Nick Saban threw out last week at the SEC meetings, that the day could come where top-five BCS conference schools might choose to only play games amongst themselves in the future, and not play teams from the Mountain West, Sun Belt, Conference USA, MAC or American conferences."

So he said "top 5 BCS" and not all P5 teams, but Ohio State considers themselves to be a top 5 BCS team.

2.) I know it encourages better September scheduling but its the last thing OSU and other P5 schools want to do, for the reasons I pointed out. That's why they won't do it.

its like you're replying to posts without even reading them.

(04-14-2014 04:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 03:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  You cannot market an athletic venture that has no chance of success.

A lot of schools are already marketing only the illusion of a chance of success, or maybe a chance at a watered-down definition of success that fans are less and less willing to pay for every year.

Mississippi State has about the same chance of winning the SEC in football that Boise State has. How long can they continue to bamboozle ticket-buyers and donors into thinking that beating 4 G5/FCS teams (if they can manage that) plus going 2-6 in the SEC equals success? IMO, not much longer.

And once ticket-buyers and donors are no longer willing to pay as much for that faux version of "success", i.e., once fans realize that kind of 6-6 is really no different than 3-9 against an all-P5 schedule and spend their money accordingly, then how much does it help Miss St to play that many G5/FCS games?

Really smack from a Cal fan? Sorry, one win over a FCS team and a bunch of blowout losses qualifies you to cast shade on the G5 teams? I guess it couldn't get much worse.

Lets see how Cal would fare in a world with only FBS P5 games.

2013. 0 wins - all games save one were blowouts.
2012. 2 wins
2011. 5 wins
2010. 4 wins
2009. 7 wins Congrats.

Really? I'll bet a Sun Belt team getting 5 games against FBS teams at home would manage to win at least one of them. Even if they didn't, they wouldn't have been beaten by an average of 3 touchdowns at home. And you weren't any better on the road. My personal favorite was y'all getting curb stomped by a putrid Colorado team.

Cal is a cautionary tale for the P5. And an example why there probably won't be a split.

Congrats on your incumbency. That's all you have over the G5 as far as football goes.

Do you have a point? What good does it do Miss State to play a non-con schedule of USM, UAB, South Alabama, and Tennessee-Martin?

For that matter, outside of a six-figure payday, what good does it do those teams to play Miss State? Do they need that game? They don't get to join the SEC if they win. If they win they get a feel-good charge that goes away as soon as they go back to their regular grind -- a 7-5 CUSA team with a W over a bad P5 team is still a 7-5 CUSA team that plays in a mid-December bowl game. If they lose it's just another game. Beating Alabama or Florida State, now that would be a big deal. Beating Miss State does nothing permanent even for the fans, except for a fringe minority who thinks their team would be the rulers of CFB if it wasn't for an evil P5 conspiracy to keep them from surpassing Alabama and Ohio State.

(04-14-2014 07:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Do you have a point? What good does it do Miss State to play a non-con schedule of USM, UAB, South Alabama, and Tennessee-Martin?

For that matter, outside of a six-figure payday, what good does it do those teams to play Miss State? Do they need that game? They don't get to join the SEC if they win. If they win they get a feel-good charge that goes away as soon as they go back to their regular grind -- a 7-5 CUSA team with a W over a bad P5 team is still a 7-5 CUSA team that plays in a mid-December bowl game. If they lose it's just another game. Beating Alabama or Florida State, now that would be a big deal. Beating Miss State does nothing permanent even for the fans, except for a fringe minority who thinks their team would be the rulers of CFB if it wasn't for an evil P5 conspiracy to keep them from surpassing Alabama and Ohio State.

Playing and beating the Miss State's, Penn State's, NC State's, etc does quite a lot for G5 programs. Helps SOS for landing the Access Bowl spot for starters.

(04-14-2014 09:56 PM)UCF_SystemsEng Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 07:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Do you have a point? What good does it do Miss State to play a non-con schedule of USM, UAB, South Alabama, and Tennessee-Martin?

For that matter, outside of a six-figure payday, what good does it do those teams to play Miss State? Do they need that game? They don't get to join the SEC if they win. If they win they get a feel-good charge that goes away as soon as they go back to their regular grind -- a 7-5 CUSA team with a W over a bad P5 team is still a 7-5 CUSA team that plays in a mid-December bowl game. If they lose it's just another game. Beating Alabama or Florida State, now that would be a big deal. Beating Miss State does nothing permanent even for the fans, except for a fringe minority who thinks their team would be the rulers of CFB if it wasn't for an evil P5 conspiracy to keep them from surpassing Alabama and Ohio State.

Playing and beating the Miss State's, Penn State's, NC State's, etc does quite a lot for G5 programs. Helps SOS for landing the Access Bowl spot for starters.

The best G5 teams will get a "pop" from playing good P5 teams, for sure. Fresno State has a shot at being really good this year, and they have to like that they have USC and Nebraska on the schedule. If they win those and run the table, or split them and finish 12-1, then they're almost assured of getting that "access" slot.

But there's no resume boost from playing a bad P5 team. Poll voters and committee members know that beating a 2-10 P5 team is not impressive, and the "Big 12" or "SEC" or "Pac-12" patch on their uniforms doesn't make it impressive.

And, a bad G5 team gets nothing from enhancing their SOS or even upsetting a P5 team. The resume boost only has value for teams that have a shot at a major bowl and/or a top-25 ranking.

(04-14-2014 04:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 03:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  You cannot market an athletic venture that has no chance of success.

A lot of schools are already marketing only the illusion of a chance of success, or maybe a chance at a watered-down definition of success that fans are less and less willing to pay for every year.

Mississippi State has about the same chance of winning the SEC in football that Boise State has. How long can they continue to bamboozle ticket-buyers and donors into thinking that beating 4 G5/FCS teams (if they can manage that) plus going 2-6 in the SEC equals success? IMO, not much longer.

And once ticket-buyers and donors are no longer willing to pay as much for that faux version of "success", i.e., once fans realize that kind of 6-6 is really no different than 3-9 against an all-P5 schedule and spend their money accordingly, then how much does it help Miss St to play that many G5/FCS games?

So far the fans are willing to load the car and head to Birmingham or Shreveport at the end of the year and declare the season as success. So far that isn't changing. Most of the examples of dreadful bowl attendance have come from schools underperforming from their expected standard or from G5 schools with softer support asked to travel very long distances.

(04-14-2014 07:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Do you have a point? What good does it do Miss State to play a non-con schedule of USM, UAB, South Alabama, and Tennessee-Martin?

For that matter, outside of a six-figure payday, what good does it do those teams to play Miss State? Do they need that game? They don't get to join the SEC if they win. If they win they get a feel-good charge that goes away as soon as they go back to their regular grind -- a 7-5 CUSA team with a W over a bad P5 team is still a 7-5 CUSA team that plays in a mid-December bowl game. If they lose it's just another game. Beating Alabama or Florida State, now that would be a big deal. Beating Miss State does nothing permanent even for the fans, except for a fringe minority who thinks their team would be the rulers of CFB if it wasn't for an evil P5 conspiracy to keep them from surpassing Alabama and Ohio State.

USM is an in-state school, that game is of interest to fans with less regard to record. UAB is a short hop and will sell more visiting tickets than the normal G5 opponent.

(04-14-2014 10:54 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 04:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 03:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  You cannot market an athletic venture that has no chance of success.

A lot of schools are already marketing only the illusion of a chance of success, or maybe a chance at a watered-down definition of success that fans are less and less willing to pay for every year.

Mississippi State has about the same chance of winning the SEC in football that Boise State has. How long can they continue to bamboozle ticket-buyers and donors into thinking that beating 4 G5/FCS teams (if they can manage that) plus going 2-6 in the SEC equals success? IMO, not much longer.

And once ticket-buyers and donors are no longer willing to pay as much for that faux version of "success", i.e., once fans realize that kind of 6-6 is really no different than 3-9 against an all-P5 schedule and spend their money accordingly, then how much does it help Miss St to play that many G5/FCS games?

So far the fans are willing to load the car and head to Birmingham or Shreveport at the end of the year and declare the season as success. So far that isn't changing. Most of the examples of dreadful bowl attendance have come from schools underperforming from their expected standard or from G5 schools with softer support asked to travel very long distances.

So far, that's true. How long that lasts depends in part on how fast the prices increase, just as the tolerance of fans of the "name" teams for these games depends in large part on how much they're asked to pay. The season ticket bases won't go away overnight, but the long term trend is downward, and the economics of the "buy" games depend on Ohio State season ticket holders (for example) grudgingly paying for the Kent State game in order to have their good seats for the Michigan game.

(04-14-2014 07:37 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Do you have a point? What good does it do Miss State to play a non-con schedule of USM, UAB, South Alabama, and Tennessee-Martin?

For that matter, outside of a six-figure payday, what good does it do those teams to play Miss State? Do they need that game? They don't get to join the SEC if they win. If they win they get a feel-good charge that goes away as soon as they go back to their regular grind -- a 7-5 CUSA team with a W over a bad P5 team is still a 7-5 CUSA team that plays in a mid-December bowl game. If they lose it's just another game. Beating Alabama or Florida State, now that would be a big deal. Beating Miss State does nothing permanent even for the fans, except for a fringe minority who thinks their team would be the rulers of CFB if it wasn't for an evil P5 conspiracy to keep them from surpassing Alabama and Ohio State.

Just like the NCAA tournament in basketball, the beauty of the current football system is that allows teams to define victory in their own way. Next year, in our second year of full FBS, our goal is to make a bowl (and maybe beat Mississippi State at home). 7-5 would be a good season. In 10 years, maybe we'll set our goals higher. Playing Mississippi State gives USA the ability to gauge how far we've come and how far we have to go as we start our second year in FBS. We'll sell out our stadium. We hope (but don't expect) to win. We'll get an opportunity to see how we match up against a mid to top SEC team when we play at South Carolina. We'll also get a big check for that game. Besides, neither Alabama nor Auburn will schedule USA (they won't play us even as a payday game).

ff my team hadn't earned a berth in the bowl for our conference champion in close to sixty years and hadn't won that bowl in close to eighty years, I doubt I'd be defining victory as competing at the same level as the top 10 teams in the country year in and year out. Jus' saying.

Mississippi State won the SEC West in 1998. When their conference schedule includes Alabama, Auburn, LSU ( 6 of last 10 national champs - and 8 berths in the championship game in the last 10 years) plus Texas A&M its not like they have a weak schedule like Ohio State. If Mississippi State wins out, they'll be in the playoff. Do they really need to play a brutal OOC schedule? If they are a fraud, they'll be exposed in the playoffs if they get that far.

Shade from Alabama or Auburn or Florida State or even Miami might be justified. Shade from Cal? Not justified. I'm pretty sure we can play with you guys.

As far as a place for teams like USA in FBS, I'd argue if there's space in it for Cal, there's space in it for USA.

I'm absolutely sure no one is talking about this but I'll throw it in there...

I guarantee Saban wants the easiest path to the playoff that he can get. If he's signing top recruiting classes and still has the polls eating him up, he doesn't want to go out of the way just to make sure there's 100% no doubt that they deserve a playoff spot. If he can get away with playing FCS, low G5, low G5, low G5, the SEC west + Kentucky and Vandy I'm sure he would.

He's just a bit chapped that ODU turned down Alabama's request to host them (even though they had a full schedule and ODU was playing another P5 that week). "In some instances, I have seen [schools] that put themselves out there publicly, and then get denied. It doesn't look good. Yeah, YOU did, jack! I'm sure threatening not to play G5 teams will make them think twice about the next offer they turn down.

I don't talk Tennessee much but I can't wait until Butch Jones stomps a mudhole in this little turd.

(04-14-2014 07:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 04:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-14-2014 03:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  You cannot market an athletic venture that has no chance of success.

A lot of schools are already marketing only the illusion of a chance of success, or maybe a chance at a watered-down definition of success that fans are less and less willing to pay for every year.

Mississippi State has about the same chance of winning the SEC in football that Boise State has. How long can they continue to bamboozle ticket-buyers and donors into thinking that beating 4 G5/FCS teams (if they can manage that) plus going 2-6 in the SEC equals success? IMO, not much longer.

And once ticket-buyers and donors are no longer willing to pay as much for that faux version of "success", i.e., once fans realize that kind of 6-6 is really no different than 3-9 against an all-P5 schedule and spend their money accordingly, then how much does it help Miss St to play that many G5/FCS games?

Really smack from a Cal fan? Sorry, one win over a FCS team and a bunch of blowout losses qualifies you to cast shade on the G5 teams? I guess it couldn't get much worse.

Lets see how Cal would fare in a world with only FBS P5 games.

2013. 0 wins - all games save one were blowouts.
2012. 2 wins
2011. 5 wins
2010. 4 wins
2009. 7 wins Congrats.

Really? I'll bet a Sun Belt team getting 5 games against FBS teams at home would manage to win at least one of them. Even if they didn't, they wouldn't have been beaten by an average of 3 touchdowns at home. And you weren't any better on the road. My personal favorite was y'all getting curb stomped by a putrid Colorado team.

Cal is a cautionary tale for the P5. And an example why there probably won't be a split.

Congrats on your incumbency. That's all you have over the G5 as far as football goes.

LOL, seriously. It's hilarious how the worst programs in the P5 talk the most **** to the G5. They're grandfathered in and they know it.