waltgreenberg
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I Root For: Rice Owls
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ECU Baseball Preview-- Bounce Back Weekend
This is a somewhat abbreviated preview since I've been very busy this week trying to tie up loose ends (some Rice-related) before heading down to Houston tomorrow for the weekend series and a couple meetings early next week.
Despite losing four of their last six games, and playing arguably their worst baseball of the season, the Baseball Owls are still ranked in the Top 15 in most of the national polls, and are currently ranked #8 nationally in RPI, #13 in ISR and #13 in Strength of Schedule. Having said that, if we hope to maintain our grip on a regional hosting birth and stay atop the CUSA standings, it's absolutely imperative that we find a way to beat back the mid-season malaise, overcome adversity (with the recent injuries to JC Reeves and Leon Byrd) and find a way to right the ship and bounce back this weekend with a home series win against the East Carolina Pirates (in our last meeting against them before they leave the conference after this season). The Owls currently have a 1 1/2 game lead in the CUSA race, but that is somewhat misleading since four teams (ECU, USM, UAB and UT-SA) are even with us in the loss column, and two other team (FIU, MTSU) are only 2 games back in the standings. We can ill-afford a home series loss this weekend if we hope to extend our conference championship streak. Game times at The Reck are: 6:30pm CST on Friday, 2:00pm on Saturday and 12:00 noon on Sunday.
ECU comes into town playing it's best ball of the season, and starting to live up to their lofty preseason expectations. Prior to losing a hearbreaking 2-3 decision at NC State on Wednesday, the Pirates had reeled off seven consecutive wins (albeit all against teams with RPI rankings below 200). Their early season woes were primarily the result of sloppy defense, but they appear to have corrected that problem by moving all-american Sr Drew Reynolds (8 errors) from 2B to DH, and making switches at both shortstop (from highly regarded Freshman Kirk Morgan-- 8 errors-- to Jr Hunter Allen), and catcher (from Luke Lowery-- 5 errors-- to Fr Eric Tyler). The Pirates have posted an overall record of 17-12 (4-5 on road, 6-3 in CUSA, 2-7 vs. Top 100, 10-2 vs. RPI 200+, #120 ISR, #124 RPI, #190 SoS). It is very difficult to evaluate ECU given their very weak first half schedule. All four of their road wins were against teams ranked below 200 in RPI, and quite honestly, their only quality series win was at home against Tulane (2-1). In other conference action, they swept lowly Charlotte and lost two of three to Marshall. The only eltie teams they've played were an early road series at Virginia, when they were swept, and their loss on Wednesday to a badly struggling NC State squad. Conversely, they've already played 12 games against teams with RPI rankings below 200 (vs. only one such game played by Rice), in addition to 3 games against #177 ranked Marshall-- which represents over half their schedule to date! Consequently, one can assume that their stats are at least somewhat inflated.
Here's ECU's schedule and results to date...
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/sch...t-Carolina
Offensively, as a team ECU is hitting .276/.359/.350, with 10 HRs, 37 doubles/triples, 26-40 stolen bases and averaging 4.6 runs per game. The boast four regulars hitting over .300, led by: Zach Houchins (.353/.411/.414, 7 doubles, 12 RBIs, 5-7 SBs), Drew Reynolds (.312/.397/.404, 1 HR, 7 doubles, 11 RBIs), Charlie Yorgen (.349/.440/.419. 7 RBIs), Luke lowery (.347/.380/.413, 1 HR, 8 RBIs), Ian Townsend (.280/.342/.410, 3 HRs, 4 doubles, 21 RBIs) and Ben Fultz (.273/.343/.375, 1 HR, 4 doubles/triples, 21 RBIs, 4-6 SBs). The Pirates are another very aggressive, free-swinging team. However, their lineup poses a very formidable and difficult matchup problem for our right-handed pitchers (save for Blake Fox) as all but two of the regulars (3B Houchins and C Tyler/Lowery) are left-handed batters. Our pitchers need to regain the command of their pitches they've appeared to lose over the past couple weeks, and return to pounding the strikezone. Our defense neeeds to tighten up considerably from our recent play, and put a stop to gifting runs.
On the mound, the ECU staff has posted very respectable across-the-board stats: 2.78 ERA, 2.34 BAA, 2.3 K:Bb ratio and averaging a very low 2.6 walks issued per game. Of course, they are led by consensus first-team preseason all-american and projected early first round draft pick, Jr RHP Jeff Hoffman, who possesses a 95- 98 MPH fastball, as well as a "plus" curveball and solid changeup, which he throws almost exclusively to left-handed batters. (I have provided below Baseball America's full scouting report on Hoffman.) As other teams have done when facing Rice this year, it appears the Pirates will be juggling their weekend rotation in order to throw a second left-handed pitcher against us. Very highly regarded but oft-injured David Lucroy (who had been ECU's mid-week guy for most of this season) will likely get the Sunday start against us, instead of regular Sunday starter, RHP Tyler Bolton, who started Wednesday's game vs. NC State, but who could still be available to pitch in relief against us as he only threw 3.0 innings and 52 pitches. Lucroy was a first-team Freshman all-american selection his Freshman year in 2011, but has missed most of the past two years with injuries, and has struggled with his control. However, he had his best game of the year last weekend against lowly UMBC (6.0 IP, 3 hits, 1 unearned run, 1 BB, 3 Ks). The bullpen has proven to be THE strength of the team so far this season, and is led by a trio of Senior right-handers: their one-inning closer Drew Reynolds (who tied Lemond for the CUSA lead in saves last year with 14), their workhorse set-up man Ryan Williams (who has pitched the most innings of anyone on the entire staff, including starters, and is averaging 3.0 IP/outing) and 5th year returnee Brett Mabry. This trio has combined to record either the win or the save in all 17 of ECU's victories this year...and all three have exceptional control. Their fourth best and most used reliever, true Freshman Davis Kirkpatrick is also a right-hander...so once we get to their bullpen, we can pretty much stick with our left-handed lineup. Having said that, their bullpen has been just about lights out up to now (ECU is 13-1 when leading after 6 innings, and 14-0 when leading after 7 innings). This is not a team we want to fall behind.
J.Hoffman (Jr RHP): 7 starts, 1-3, 45.0 IP, 3.80 ERA, .213 BAA, 18 BBs, 4 HBP, 6 WP, 45 Ks
R.Love (JUCO, LHP): 6 starts, 2-1, 35.0 IP, 2.31 ERA, .198 BAA, 11 BBs, 22 Ks
D.Lucroy (RS So LHP): 5 starts, 1-3, 21.1 IP, 5.48 ERA, .313 BAA, 8 BBs, 3 HBP, 12 Ks
D.Reynolds (Sr, RHP): 9 app, 1-0, 4 saves, 9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA, .176 BAA, 0 BBs, 9 Ks
R.Wiliams (Sr, RHP): 16 app, 8-1, 2 saves, 48.0 IP, 0.75 ERA, .207 BAA, 3 BBs, 38 Ks
B.Mabrey (RS Sr RHP): 9 app, 2-0, 24.2 IP, 1.46 ERA, .221 BAA, 2 BBs, 10 Ks
T.Bolton (Jr RHP): 7 starts, 1-3, 31.1 IP, 2.30 ERA, .291 BAA, 16 BBs, 14 Ks
Hoffman is the only high-frequency strikeout pitcher on the staff, and he and Bolton are the only guys without exception control. Consequently, this weekend it makes sense for our lineup to be their usual very aggressive selves at the plate. However, we need to do a better job executing the sac bunt when called upon to do so (perhaps the understatement of the year given our recent inability to lay down a bunt in fair territory), and we need to stop running ourselves out of innings on the bases.
Here's their roster, as well as individual and team stats over the Pirates' first 29 games...
http://www.ecupirates.com/sports/m-baseb...l-mtt.html
http://www.ecupirates.com/sports/m-baseb...mcume.html
It's put up or shut up time for the Baseball Owls. No question they have hit a mid-season wall due to a multitude of factors, including being tired from the spate of 5-game weeks and feeling the increasing end-of-the-semester academic pressures (with Finals just 3 weeks away). The injuries to Stephens, Rutter, and now Reeves and Byrd have only compounded the issue. However, the team needs to come together, dig deep and find a way-- any way-- to get back on the winning track and win this weekend series. The team leaders need to step up, as do some of our backup who are now getting an opportunity to prove themselves. Let's bring the focus, energy level and will to win (refusal to lose) required to win this critical conference series against ECU, who we will be playing for the last time before they depart CUSA after this season). Let's play a brand of baseball worthy of our still lofty national rankings, and representative of what we've come to expect from Rice Baseball. Go Owls!
Based on their returning talent, led by two all-american candidates (Hoffman, Reynolds), Collegebaseballmadness.com ranked ECU #25 in their preseason Top 44...
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/8281
Quote:East Carolina had a solid season last year, but an 11 game stretch in the middle of the year where the Pirates went 2-9 doomed the team’s postseason chances. The good news for the Pirates is that the majority of the key performers are back this season and they are in a great position to reverse the fortunes of last year. There are a few loses in the field, but the entire weekend rotation and closer return. Add in a recruiting class with five junior college transfers and 11 freshmen and the outlook for East Carolina this season is very bright.
2013: 31-26, 14-10
2013 Postseason: None
Coach: Billy Goodwin
Field Players:
Drew Reynolds will lead East Carolina at the plate. The senior utility player hit a team leading .322 with 22 RBI’s in 2013. He also serves as the teams closer. Senior Zach Houchins returns in the infield after hitting .317 with five home runs and 42 RBI’s in his first season with the Pirates. Joining the duo will be a trio of outfielders who started last year. Dylan Brown started 43 games last year and hit .216 with three home runs and 18 RBI’s. Ben Fultz and Garret Brooks started 25 and 21 games respectively. Fultz hit .292 with three home runs and 24 RBI’s, while Brooks hit .196, but did have a .321 on base percentage. A pair of sophomores will be behind the plate. Travis Watkins started 34 games and hit .267 with 16 RBI’s, while Luke Lowery started 25 games and hit .302 with four home runs and 14 RBI’s. The Pirates will look for newcomers to add a lot of production. Lowery could also see time in the infield. A trio of freshmen should also see infield time. Bryce Harman and Kirk Morgan both hit over .400 during the Purple-Gold World Series in the fall, while Charlie Yorgen added a .500 on base percentage. Junior college transfer Ian Townsend will also likely see time in the outfield after hitting .455 with a home run and 3 RBI’s this fall.
Pitchers:
The pitching staff is East Carolina’s strength. They will be lead by Jeff Hoffman, who is one of the top prospects for the 2014 MLB Draft. The junior was 6-7 with a 3.20 ERA last season. He really started to turn head with his performance in the Cape Cod Baseball League last summer. There, he went 2-0 with a 3.69 ERA, holding batters to a .217 average. He was named the Outstanding Pro Prospect of the league. Both of the other weekend starters return. David Lucroy went 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA and Ryan Williams went 6-2 with a 4.50 ERA. In the bullpen, Drew Reynolds will be back as the closer. He was 3-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 14 saves last year. Brett Mabry will join him after going 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 19 appearances. Also back will be Nick Durazo and Taylor Bolton, who both appeared in ten games apiece last year and had identical 7.36 ERA’s. East Carolina will look for added help from newcomers. Junior College transfers James Gray and Reid Love, along with freshmen Evan Kruczynski and Luke Bolka should be the top candidates.
Who to Watch:
Jeff Hoffman is drawing all the attention, but David Lucroy could be the key to the rotation. In his first season playing with the Pirates, Lucroy was very impressive. He had the second lowest ERA on the team and held batters to a .194 batting average. He also struck out 82 batters in just 72.1 innings. With a year under his belt, those numbers could improve this season. The duo of Hoffman and Lucroy should be very dangerous this season and the Pirates will look to turn it into a successful season.
Final Projection:
East Carolina has had a strong program over the years, but took a step back last season. From 1999 to 2012, the Pirates reached the postseason 12 times and won three regionals, but missed the postseason last season. This season’s team looks to have the makings to return to a regional. The Pirates will be tested early with a series at Virginia, but the schedule is mostly in East Carolina’s favor. They get Rice, Southern Miss, and Florida Atlantic at home this year. With the favorable schedule and a lot of production back, watch out for the Pirates.
Projected Postseason: NCAA Baseball Tournament
Returning Leaders:
At Bats: Drew Reynolds, IF, 211
Hits: Drew Reynolds, IF, 68
Home Runs: Zach Houchins, IF, 5
RBIs: Zach Houchins, IF, 42
Runs: Zach Houchins, IF, 34
Stolen Bases: Dylan Drown, OF, 7
Wins: Jeff Hoffman, P, 6; Ryan Williams, P, 6
Innings Pitched: Jeff Hoffman, P, 109.1
Strikeouts: Jeff Hoffman, P, 84
Saves: Drew Reynolds, P, 14
Madness 2014 MLB Draft Rankings:
#2 Jeff Hoffman
#131 David Lucroy
Baseball American projected ECU to finish #3 in CUSA and make the post-season...
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2...rence-usa/
Quote:East Carolina: For all his electric stuff, Hoffman went just 6-7 last year, and he must mature into a dominant Friday ace as a junior. If he does, ECU’s rotation should be outstanding, as Jr. RHP David Lucroy (the brother of big league catcher Jonathan Lucroy) should be a rock-solid No. 2 starter with good command of a fastball that reaches 93 and three quality secondary offerings. Fr. RHP Davis Kirkpatrick and Jr. RHP Tyler Bolton (the No. 2 prospect in the Coastal Plain League last year) give ECU two more good starting options, and two-way star Drew Reynolds gives the bullpen a shut-down stopper. With leading home run hitter Chase McDonald gone, Sr. 3B Zach Houchins must emerge as the lineup’s primary power threat. And most importantly, freshman Kirk Morgan has to fill stalwart Jack Reinheimer’s shoes at shortstop.
Kendall Rogers/Perfect Game (who will be in attendance for Friday's Hoffman vs. Lemond marquess matchup) also picked ECU to finish #3 in the conference, and selected Hoffman (RHP), Reynolds (closer/DH) and Houchins (3B) for his preseason all-conference team...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=9331
Quote:• EAST CAROLINA: The Pirates are looking to make a huge statement on the national stage, and have the team capable of doing just that this season. ECU obviously is led by elite righthanded pitcher Jeff Hoffman, while junior Tyler Bolton also is expected to have a huge season on the mound. Keep an eye on righty David Lucroy, who displayed a fastball up to 98 during fall workouts, while two-way player Drew Reynolds is back for duties both at second base and as closer … In terms of young players, keep an eye on hard-hitting Bryce Harman. Harman was a very talented prospect out of high school, ranked No. 75 nationally with very good power potential … Last but not least, keep an eye on Hoffman, who showed strong stuff during the summer at the Cape Cod League, and should vouch for at least the No. 2 spot in the MLB draft this summer.
Eric Sorensons ranked ECU #74 his in preseason Top 302 countdown...
http://www.collegebaseballtoday.com/2014...s-of-2014/
Quote:74- EAST CAROLINA (31-26, 14-10)
2013 ISR: 100
Starters Returning: 5
Weekend Starters: 3
Mid-Week Starters: 1
Key Relievers (15+inns.): 3
Aye! We’re just not used to seeing the Pirates being “ordinary” but here we are. The road back starts with two-way threat Drew Reynolds, who led the team with a .322 average at the plate and 14 saves on the mound. Also watch RHP Jeff Hoffman (6-7, 3.20), who was named the “Top Prospect” in the prestigious Cape Cod League and has a 98mph heater. A great recruiting class comes in, led by MLB draftees LHP Luke Bolka (34th round, Reds) and 1B/OF Bryce Harman (27th round, Nats)
Here's Baseball America's early season scouting report on Jr RHP Jeff Hoffman...
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/g...ff-hoffman
Quote:Game Report: East Carolina Righthander Jeff Hoffman
February 15, 2014 by Clint Longenecker
GREENVILLE, N.C.—After winter flurries earlier in the week, the weather complied to allow East Carolina righthander Jeff Hoffman to make his regular season debut Friday against James Madison. Hoffman demonstrated why he is a presumptive top-five draft pick, showing three pitches that were at least plus in the Pirates’ 6-5 victory.
The season began inauspiciously when Hoffman surrendered a leadoff home run to third baseman Ty McFarland, the son of James Madison head coach Spanky McFarland. The ball was carrying well to right field Friday and the lefthanded-hitting McFarland took advantage to hit one of three home runs to right field on the day.
In the first three innings, Hoffman’s fastball sat 94-96 mph with ease and touched 97. In the later innings, Hoffman pitched at 92-95 mph. A premium athlete, Hoffman showed the potential for at least plus command, capable of locating consistently on the outer-thirds of the strike zone to both sides of the plate. Hoffman established his fastball for strikes early in counts, and nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of his fastballs went for strikes, while more than two-thirds (67 percent) of all his pitches were strikes. He walked two of the 27 batters (7 percent) he faced.
Working from the first base side of the rubber, the loose, long-limbed Hoffman showed the ability to create tremendous plane to his fastball and worked in the lower half of the zone. Hoffman relied more on his four-seam fastball Friday, and his two-seam fastball has plus life with heavy sink and arm-side run. He produced eight groundouts (and another groundball that should have been an out) against four flyouts and two infield flies.
Hoffman showed a clearly defined plan for facing right- and lefthanded hitters. The 6-foot-4, 192-pound Hoffman got ahead of righthanded hitters with his fastball and relied on his breaking balls as put-away offerings, as all six of his strikeouts came on breaking balls. His 80-83 mph curveball flashed at least plus, even better at its best. But the offering lacked consistency as Hoffman failed to get on top of the offering. Eight of his 19 breaking balls (42 percent) went for strikes, though five of the eight that did generated swings and misses. He also mixed in a few slower breaking balls at 76-78 mph.
Against lefthanded hitters, Hoffman showed tremendous feel for his improved changeup that was a legitimate plus offering. All but one of his 12 changeups were thrown to lefthanded hitters and all but two (83 percent) went for strikes. Twice Hoffman doubled up on changeups to lefthanded hitters to start the at-bat. Hoffman released his changeup from a lower arm slot than his fastball, which created fade and generated weak contact.
Although the 21-year-old Hoffman allowed four runs, only three were earned in his 6 2/3 innings, during which he allowed four hits. His third earned run occurred when he was pulled with two outs and a runner on second in the seventh inning, as Hoffman threw 87 pitches and had a 90-pitch limit. The baserunner scored on a hit surrendered by the reliever.
Hoffman displayed his athleticism while fielding his position, handling a bunt well and snaring a chopper back through the box, a play very few pitchers could have made.
“You can’t walk away from this outing and not be impressed,” an American League scout said. “He is special. His changeup was a lot better today and he showed the ability to spot up his fastball where he wanted it.”
Hoffman will next pitch against No. 1 ranked Virginia in Charlottesville next Friday in a highly anticipated matchup
.
And, finally, here's collegebaseballinsider.com's preseason interview with closer/DH Drew Reynolds...
http://www.collegebaseballinsider.com/14...nolds.html
Quote:After not seeing the mound during his freshman year, East Carolina senior Drew Reynolds (left) has racked up 24 saves over the past two years in becoming one of the top closers in the country.
To make matters worse for Pirates opponents, Reynolds also wields one of ECU’s best bats, making him one of the top two-way players in the nation. Primarily used as a designated hitter, Reynolds hit .322 with 13 doubles, 30 runs and 22 RBI for the Pirates in 2013.
This season, Reynolds is expected to start at second base in addition to closing games for Billy Godwin’s Pirates, who went 14-10 in Conference USA and 31-26 last year. He recently took time to answer some questions from CBI.
First Inning – After not pitching as a freshman, did anything change that enabled you to become such a force out of the bullpen?
Not really, I just spent a lot of time working with our pitching coach Dan Roszel on understanding my body control and refining my delivery so that I could develop more consistency.
Second Inning – Was it your plan to be a two-way player at ECU coming out of high school?
I committed as a middle infielder after my junior year of high school. It wasn't until my senior season of high school that I feel like I came into my own on the mound, so it became something that the coaches wanted to flirt with when I got to ECU. I hadn’t planned on pitching in college, but I was more than willing to do whatever the coaches thought would give our team a better chance to win.
Third Inning – Describe the challenges being a two-way player presents? Is it tougher to get your hitting/defensive reps or your pitching reps?
It’s definitely tougher to get my pitching reps. I spend most of my time working with position players at practice, so I always have to find a time to sneak down and get my bullpen in while I’m not hitting or on defense.
Fourth Inning – Playing two ways, do you prepare your arm for the season any different from any other position player or pitcher?
Not significantly different. The main thing I have to be conscious of is to just be smart, and to not over-do it on certain days. On days I throw a bullpen, I typically don’t make as many throws in the infield. On days that aren’t supposed to be heavy throwing as a pitcher, I may mix in more throws in the infield instead of all the prep work that goes along with being a pitcher. Not being able to focus on solely one over the other is difficult, but my coaches do a very good job in managing my arm and making sure I am available for the games.
Fifth Inning – If you had to give up pitching or hitting, which one would you give up? Why?
I honestly don't know. I’ve been doing both since I started playing baseball. Being a position player was my first love, but having the opportunity to pitch out of the bullpen at the collegiate level for such a great program like ECU has caused me to develop a genuine love for doing that as well. I would miss doing either one of them, but just being able to compete and play the game of baseball, regardless of my role, is more than enough for me.
Sixth Inning – You're expected to start at second after primarily DH-ing last year. How does that change your overall approach and specifically your approach as a pitcher? How do you conserve your arm?
It won't change it much. The main difference will be that I may have to go warm-up in the bullpen a little earlier in the game since I won't have the extra half inning to go throw, or I may make some throws with one of the infielders in between innings. Luckily I’ve done this many times in my lifetime heading back to my high school days so I am pretty familiar with it. As for conserving my arm, I may not take infield/outfield on certain days to try and limit the amount of throws I make.
Seventh Inning – Describe yourself as a hitter.
I like to think of myself as a disciplined hitter. I feel like my knowledge of the game and the mental side of it are my strengths. I’m a son of a coach and a huge baseball junkie so during a game I try to pay attention to the pitcher and apply knowledge I already have to my at-bats in order to try and put myself in the best possible situation to have success.
Eighth Inning – Describe yourself as a pitcher.
As a pitcher I feel like the best thing that describes me is that I'm a competitor. I love being out on the mound with the game on the line and it being up to me to decide it. I mix my arm slots up and throw from both overtop and sidearm. As a hitter I know how difficult it is just focusing on one arm slot so I feel like mixing mine up is a bit of a wrinkle I can throw at hitters that can mess their comfort level up. I'm not the most overpowering closer in the country, but I try and pride myself on being the most competitive.
Ninth Inning – What do the Pirates have to do to get back to Regionals?
For the Pirates to make it back to the postseason, we just have to play clean, consistent baseball. We have a ton of ability on both the staff and in the position player group. It's just a matter of being consistent and executing at a high level on a day-to-day and game-to-game basis.
(This post was last modified: 04-03-2014 04:55 PM by waltgreenberg.)
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