As the Baseball Owls make the halfway turn on the regular season, the coaching staff and players have much to be proud of as the team has, by most accounts, exceeded expectations despite losing their Friday ace to injury; a loss which most teams-- even the most elite-- could not overcome....but there is still much work left to do (and areas which must see improvemnt) if the team hopes to achieve its goals. We make the turn having posted a 20-7 overall record (12-3 at home, 7-2 on the road, 8-1 in CUSA, 8-7 vs. Top 50, 10-7 vs. Top 100)-- exactly halfway to our 20th consecutive 40-win season, and holding a 2-game lead in the conference standing (over FIU and ECU) in our quest for our 19th consecutive conference championship (though USM and UAB are only one back in the loss column). With regards to the conference race it is important to keep in mind that there is a VERY unbalanced schedule this year-- almost every other contender (ECU, USM, FIU, FAU, Tulane, UAB) plays at least two series against the three bottom-feeders (LaTech, Marshall, Charlotte), while we're not scheduled to play any of the three (and we're the only one of the top seven teams that have to play all six of the other top CUSA teams). While this may help our RPI in the long run, it will make it that much more difficult to win the regular season conference title.

Reflecting back on the first half, we have the good, the not so good/bad, and the somewhat ugly. Though we continue to fall somewhat beneath the radar in the various national polls (where we rank as high as #10 and as low as #21), our national rankings in ISR (#2), RPI (#3) and strength of schedule (#10) are the highest they've been in several years...and position us strongly for both regional hosting and naitonal seed consideration so long as we continue winning at the current pace. Also on the positive side, a number of returning players have either performed at the very high, all-american caliber level expected of them (Zech Lemond, Skyler Ewing) or have stepped up their game big time to become major contributors (Blake Fox, Matt Ditman, Chase McDowell, Kirby Taylor, Ryan McCarthy). Add to this list the red-hot bat of JC Reeves, who is the leading candidate for CUSA Newcomer of the Year. Several other newcomers or returnees seeing their first D-1 action have shown flashes of brilliance, but need to exhibit greater consistency in their performances (Jon Duplantier, Trevor Teykl, Caleb Smith, Austin Orewiler, Charlie Warren, John Williamson)...and I'd add returning contrbutor Kevin McCanna to that list. What's encouraging is that amongst the pitchers, the inconsistency has largely been attributed to sporadic control issues (and not suddenly being hit hard). Thus far this season, somewhat contrary to expectations, it has been the pitching and the defense that has carried the team. The pitching staff currently boasts a 2.38 ERA, .215 BAA, 2.5 K:BB ratio and is averaging 8.3 strikeouts per game. Pretty sterling numbers considering our strength of schedule...and if we can reduce the number of walks and hit by pitches in the second half, we could actually improve upon those numbers.

On the negative side of the ledger, aside from the injuries to Jordan Stephens and Evan Rutter, the offense has been far too inconsistent-- we're averaging 5.7 runs/game, but have scored 3 runs or less in over half our games (and 2 runs or less in 8 of our 27 games). Conversely, we've scored double-digit run totals in 7 of our games. And though we are hitting better in the clutch (with runners in scoring position) than the past couple seasons, and doing a slightly better job in the bunting game, our walk totals are down significantly from previous seasons, and this has had an adverse effect on our overall offensive efficiency. Our team onbase percentage (.358) is sub-par, and we currently have just one player above the .400 OBP level. This has got to improve if we are to become legitimate Omaha contenders. Similarly, our offense has got to solve it's continued struggles against left-handed pitching...and we'll get yet another opportunity at this against Middle Tennessee State this weekend. What gives one optimism is that we have several everyday players who are currently hitting well below their potential and past year levels. If and when they start hitting as they have in the past-- and we are no longer relying on the same two or three guys to carry the offensive load every game, there is no limit to how far this team can go..

Let's put it all together this weekend, kickoff the second half of the year with our sixth consecutive series victory, and create additional separation in the CUSA standings. Game times in Murfreesboro, TN (just outside Nashville) are: 6:00pm CST on Friday, a late 4:00pm CST afternoon game on Saturday, and a 12:00 noon CST finale on Sunday.

The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders enter this series with a rather pedestrian 10-13 overall record (7-6 at home, 5-4 in CUSA, 2-5 vs. Top 100), and with national rankings of #158 RPI, #167 USR and #122 SoS. The only weekend series they have won this year was at home a couple weeks back against lowly Charlotte (sweep). However, though they lost 2 of 3 to both UAB and Tulane, all games were low scoring and within a couple runs. In fact, almost every game they have played this season has been close, with 15 of their 23 games decided by two runs or less. Here's their schedule and results to date...

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/sch...-Tennessee

We should not take Middle Tennessee lightly; not only because of the difficulty in playing on the road, but because they are precisely the type of team that could give us fits-- they are an extremely upperclass-laden, veteran squad (their starting lineup consists of 5 Seniors, 3 JUCO transfers and one other Junior; while 6 of their 8 top pitchers are upperclassmen and the two Sophomores are releivers)...and their weekend rotation features two left-handed pitchers with "plus" off-speed pitches, and a recently converted closer.

Here are the game notes from the Middle Tennessee website...
http://www.goblueraiders.com/content.cfm/id/75678

Offensively, the Blue Raiders are hitting jusst 252/.343/.347 as a team, with 9 HRs, 41 doubles/triples, 16-25 stolen bases and averaging just 4.3 runs/game. Their primary problems are: (1) they strikeout a ton-- 6 everyday players already have 15+ strikeouts, (2) they're not very proficient at small ball-- only 9 sac bunts on the year, and an inefficient 16 - 25 in SBs, and (3) they have a very unbalanced lineup with only two players hitting above .275 and five hitting below .250. The two guys you cannot let beat you are Trent Miller (.356/.402/.511, 1 HR, 10 doubles/triples, 17 RBIs) and Austin Bryant (.324/.405/.405, 5 doubles/triples, 9 RBIs), but they also have a couple free-swinging power guys in Jared Allen (.273/.340/.443, 3 HRs, 5 doubles/triples, 12 RBIs, 21 Ks) and Ryan Stephens (.247/.311/.430, 4 HRs, 5 doubles, 11 RBIs). Jake Ingold is hitting just .217 for the season, but has been one of their hottest hitters the past two weeks, hitting .320 with 7 RBIs over the past 7 games. For a change, the matchup works well for us (all but Blake Fox, that is) as the Blue Raiders are a right-handed laden lineup, with just one left-handed batter (Stephens) and one switch hitter (Hank LaRue who is hiiting .182). If our pitchers can consistently get their off-speed and breaking ptiches over the plate, we should be able to rack up impressive strikeout numbers this weekend.

Middle Tennessee appears to be a very solid defensive team, as they've posted a .972 fielding percentage and no player has accumulated more than 5 errors. However, even that is misleading as it is their catcher (Adkins) who has the five errors (along with 5 passed balls and 23 wild pitches), and their pitching staff have collectively committed another 7 of their team total 25 errors. Their entire infield has only committed 8 errors over their first 23 games. Given the issue with their catcher and pitchers, they might be vulnerable to the bunting game. Just saying.

On the mound, the staff stats are somewhat misleading since they just recently replaced one struggling weekend starter (with an ERA of 7.48) with their closer. Having said that, their across-the-board stats are not very good, especially when considering their #122 ranked SoS: 4.66 ERA, .264 BAA, 1.65 K:BB ratio, but a very respectable 7.4 strikeouts per game. They will be pitching upperclass southpaws on Friday and Sunday, with their ace (Zac Curtis) leading CUSA in strikeouts and ranked #2 nationally. For the 3rd week their Saturday starter will be 5-year right-hand pitcher and converted closer, Paul Mittura...

Zac Curtis (Sr, LHP): 6 starts, 2-1, 39.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, .259 BAA, 14 BBs, 6 HBP, 52 Ks
Paul Mittura (RS Sr RHP): 9 app, 2 starts, 1-0, 4 saves, 24.2 IP, 2.92 ERA, .247 BAA, 4 BBs, 11 Ks
Jonathan Frebis (Jr LHP): 6 starts, 1-3, 29.2 IP, 4.85 ERA, .283 BAA, 17 BBs, 21 Ks

Closer, Heath Slatton (So, RHP): 11 app, 2-1, 1 save, 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, .283 BAA, 9 BBs, 6 HBP, 14 Ks
Kooper Kessler (Jr, RHP): 6 app, 1-0, 13.0 IP, 2/08 ERA, .163 BAA, 3 BBs, 9 Ks
Garrett Ring (So, RHP): 9 app, 2 starts, 0-3, 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, .258 BAA, 10 BBs, 13 Ks

Of the weekend starters, only Mittura has outstanding control, and he's the one guy who's not a strikeout pitcher. Given Curtis' high strikeout totals, one has to assume he's got a devastating breaking ball when ahead in the count. Consequently, we should go up there looking for that fastball against him early in the count. On Sunday, I'd try to be patient and really work the count against Frebis, who can be on the wild side.

Let's solve the southpaw pitching puzzle for once and for all. This is a series in which we want to get into their bullpen as quickly as possible. We haven't lost a game outside of Houston since opening weekend, when we took two of three from Stanford. Let's continue to flex our road warrior muscles, and bring the focus and the aggressiveness needed to win away from home. Time to show another CUSA newcomer why we've won 18 consecutive conference championships and have every intention of extending the streak for yet another year. Time to bring it all together and play mistake-free Rice baseball. Time to keep our weekend series record perfect on the year. Go Owls!



Here's Kendall's/Perfect Game's preseason preview of Middle Tennessee...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=9331

Quote:• MIDDLE TENNESSEE: The Blue Raiders were expected to compete for a postseason appearance last season, but that didn’t happen. Now, MTSU hopes to surprise a bit with the return of talented lefthanded pitcher Johnathan Frebis, who’s 89-93 with his fastball, along with improved off speed pitches … Keep an eye on intriguing lefty Brandon Zajac, who’s 87-92 with his FB, while senior Zac Curtis returns with an 88-92 fastball and good curveball … Heath Slaton, who sits 90-93 with good off speed stuff and command is back, too, while keep an eye on freshman two-way player Caleb Smith. Smith is 88-92 on the bump with a plus slider. He also is a good athlete who can play center field. Injury-wise, Jonathan Sisco returns from injury, while freshman lefty Benji Cash will miss the year because of TJ surgery.

We play LaTech on May 15 to 17 here in Houston. Each team in CUSA plays 10 of the 12 conference opponents, so it would be impossible to miss series with all three of the three worst teams. We are fortunate to miss the two worst teams in CUSA (Marshall and Charlotte) because playing those series could only hurt us. Sweeps would do us no good. One loss out of those six games would hurt our RPI.

(03-27-2014 08:43 PM)temchugh Wrote:  We play LaTech on May 15 to 17 here in Houston. Each team in CUSA plays 10 of the 12 conference opponents, so it would be impossible to miss series with all three of the three worst teams. We are fortunate to miss the two worst teams in CUSA (Marshall and Charlotte) because playing those series could only hurt us. Sweeps would do us no good. One loss out of those six games would hurt our RPI.

Winning the conference is more important than RPI, at least in my book.

WaltGreenburg Said "Similarly, our offense has got to solve it's continued struggles against left-handed pitching"

I don't know why I let this stuff bother me, but I went back and reviewed the last 14 games before I ran out of steam. Since the start of the ODU series, we have:

Scored 29 runs over 48.2 innings pitched by left handed pitchers (0.60 runs per inning)

Scored 59 runs over 87.1 innings pitched by right handed pitchers (0.68 runs per inning)

Do we really need to "solve our continued struggle against LHP"? Or is this like the perception that Graham ruins pitchers? Something that will not go away regardless of actual events.

(03-27-2014 08:49 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 08:43 PM)temchugh Wrote:  We play LaTech on May 15 to 17 here in Houston. Each team in CUSA plays 10 of the 12 conference opponents, so it would be impossible to miss series with all three of the three worst teams. We are fortunate to miss the two worst teams in CUSA (Marshall and Charlotte) because playing those series could only hurt us. Sweeps would do us no good. One loss out of those six games would hurt our RPI.

Winning the conference is more important than RPI, at least in my book.

Fortunately, we are on track to do both.

Last year when our strength of schedule was much lower, there certainly was a lot of complaining about having to play three game weekend series against some really weak conference teams.

(03-27-2014 09:41 PM)temchugh Wrote:  WaltGreenburg Said "Similarly, our offense has got to solve it's continued struggles against left-handed pitching"

I don't know why I let this stuff bother me, but I went back and reviewed the last 14 games before I ran out of steam. Since the start of the ODU series, we have:

Scored 29 runs over 48.2 innings pitched by left handed pitchers (0.60 runs per inning)

Scored 59 runs over 87.1 innings pitched by right handed pitchers (0.68 runs per inning)

Do we really need to "solve our continued struggle against LHP"? Or is this like the perception that Graham ruins pitchers? Something that will not go away regardless of actual events.

No, it's not perception; it's reality. The numbers you present are averages and are easily misleading. For example, the majority of the 14 runs scores against Texas State was against left-handed pitching, but many of those runs were gifted to us by some 14 free passes and 3 - 5 errors.

Yes, there are exceptions-- we did quickly knock out Purdue's quality left-hander early in the season, as well as FAU's ace last week...but those are the exceptions; not the rule. We DO struggle mightily against left-handed pitching. One reason is that we have two everyday left-handed hitters (Cook and Warren/Willamson) and both our switch hitters are natural left-handed hitters. Second, for whatever reason, Aquino has really, really struggled this year against left-handers. Hoelscher is the one guy who has consistently hit left-handers hard this season. Taylor, who has only been inserted into the lineup against lefties the past two weeks, also does a good job, predominantly because he doesn't try to do too much with the pitches. Rather, he's content to go up the middle or to the opposite field; whereas some of our other right-handed hitters keep trying to pull the ball.

(03-27-2014 09:45 PM)temchugh Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 08:49 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 08:43 PM)temchugh Wrote:  We play LaTech on May 15 to 17 here in Houston. Each team in CUSA plays 10 of the 12 conference opponents, so it would be impossible to miss series with all three of the three worst teams. We are fortunate to miss the two worst teams in CUSA (Marshall and Charlotte) because playing those series could only hurt us. Sweeps would do us no good. One loss out of those six games would hurt our RPI.

Winning the conference is more important than RPI, at least in my book.

Fortunately, we are on track to do both.

Last year when our strength of schedule was much lower, there certainly was a lot of complaining about having to play three game weekend series against some really weak conference teams.

Agreed. The reality is our SoS will be no worse than Top 25 - 35 this year; whereas last year (prior to post-season) it was close to 100. Consequently, so long as we keep winning at a good pace, our RPI will stay up there. It will drop a bit, but not precipitously. Having said that, given we do not play in the SEC, ACC or Pac-12, we simply must win the conference title if we want to be in the running for national seed. A Top 8 RPI, without the conference crown is unlikely to get us a national seed....but a Top 10 - 12 RPI with at least the regular season conference championship will likely keep us in the running.

Walt Said:"both our switch hitters are natural left-handed hitters. "

A few weeks ago I had the opportunity to chat at length with Ford's dad and I recall him saying Ford was a natural right handed hitter.

80 pct chance of rain/thunderstorms tonight in Tennessee. 60 pct. rain chance tomorrow - although I'm not so sure that the worst of the weather might stay south of there?

(03-27-2014 10:17 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 09:41 PM)temchugh Wrote:  WaltGreenburg Said "Similarly, our offense has got to solve it's continued struggles against left-handed pitching"

I don't know why I let this stuff bother me, but I went back and reviewed the last 14 games before I ran out of steam. Since the start of the ODU series, we have:

Scored 29 runs over 48.2 innings pitched by left handed pitchers (0.60 runs per inning)

Scored 59 runs over 87.1 innings pitched by right handed pitchers (0.68 runs per inning)

Do we really need to "solve our continued struggle against LHP"? Or is this like the perception that Graham ruins pitchers? Something that will not go away regardless of actual events.

No, it's not perception; it's reality. The numbers you present are averages and are easily misleading. For example, the majority of the 14 runs scores against Texas State was against left-handed pitching, but many of those runs were gifted to us by some 14 free passes and 3 - 5 errors.

Yes, there are exceptions-- we did quickly knock out Purdue's quality left-hander early in the season, as well as FAU's ace last week...but those are the exceptions; not the rule. We DO struggle mightily against left-handed pitching. One reason is that we have two everyday left-handed hitters (Cook and Warren/Willamson) and both our switch hitters are natural left-handed hitters. Second, for whatever reason, Aquino has really, really struggled this year against left-handers. Hoelscher is the one guy who has consistently hit left-handers hard this season. Taylor, who has only been inserted into the lineup against lefties the past two weeks, also does a good job, predominantly because he doesn't try to do too much with the pitches. Rather, he's content to go up the middle or to the opposite field; whereas some of our other right-handed hitters keep trying to pull the ball.

In the Texas State game, we scored four runs in 4.1 innings against lefties and 10 runs in 4.2 inning against righties, so that game is not making the averages I presented misleading in favor of lefties. I guess that Texas State supports your argument that we hit righties much better.

So games that we score lots of runs against right handers (12 runs in 8 innings against A&M CC's 7 right handed pitchers) are because we know how to hit against them. Yes, there are exception (3 runs in 16.1 innings against all right handed pitchers in the 17 inning ODU game), but you can't draw any conclusions from the exceptions? (There was one left handed ODU pitcher in that 17 inning game but his line was zero outs and zero runs).

Against FAU, during the Friday game, we scored only two runs against their lefty ace who pitched a complete game, proving that we can't hit lefties. On Saturday, we scored eight runs in 4.1 innings against three left handed pitchers and six runs in 3.2 inning against right handed pitchers. I guess that Saturday was an exception for lefties but proved the point for righties.

Since averages are meaningless and the exceptions so confusing (at least to me), what should I look for as an indication that we are making progress against left handed pitchers?

(03-28-2014 07:35 AM)temchugh Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:17 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 09:41 PM)temchugh Wrote:  WaltGreenburg Said "Similarly, our offense has got to solve it's continued struggles against left-handed pitching"

I don't know why I let this stuff bother me, but I went back and reviewed the last 14 games before I ran out of steam. Since the start of the ODU series, we have:

Scored 29 runs over 48.2 innings pitched by left handed pitchers (0.60 runs per inning)

Scored 59 runs over 87.1 innings pitched by right handed pitchers (0.68 runs per inning)

Do we really need to "solve our continued struggle against LHP"? Or is this like the perception that Graham ruins pitchers? Something that will not go away regardless of actual events.

No, it's not perception; it's reality. The numbers you present are averages and are easily misleading. For example, the majority of the 14 runs scores against Texas State was against left-handed pitching, but many of those runs were gifted to us by some 14 free passes and 3 - 5 errors.

Yes, there are exceptions-- we did quickly knock out Purdue's quality left-hander early in the season, as well as FAU's ace last week...but those are the exceptions; not the rule. We DO struggle mightily against left-handed pitching. One reason is that we have two everyday left-handed hitters (Cook and Warren/Willamson) and both our switch hitters are natural left-handed hitters. Second, for whatever reason, Aquino has really, really struggled this year against left-handers. Hoelscher is the one guy who has consistently hit left-handers hard this season. Taylor, who has only been inserted into the lineup against lefties the past two weeks, also does a good job, predominantly because he doesn't try to do too much with the pitches. Rather, he's content to go up the middle or to the opposite field; whereas some of our other right-handed hitters keep trying to pull the ball.

In the Texas State game, we scored four runs in 4.1 innings against lefties and 10 runs in 4.2 inning against righties, so that game is not making the averages I presented misleading in favor of lefties. I guess that Texas State supports your argument that we hit righties much better.

So games that we score lots of runs against right handers (12 runs in 8 innings against A&M CC's 7 right handed pitchers) are because we know how to hit against them. Yes, there are exception (3 runs in 16.1 innings against all right handed pitchers in the 17 inning ODU game), but you can't draw any conclusions from the exceptions? (There was one left handed ODU pitcher in that 17 inning game but his line was zero outs and zero runs).

Against FAU, during the Friday game, we scored only two runs against their lefty ace who pitched a complete game, proving that we can't hit lefties. On Saturday, we scored eight runs in 4.1 innings against three left handed pitchers and six runs in 3.2 inning against right handed pitchers. I guess that Saturday was an exception for lefties but proved the point for righties.

Since averages are meaningless and the exceptions so confusing (at least to me), what should I look for as an indication that we are making progress against left handed pitchers?

Right. Believe what you want. If you honestly think we hit well or as well against left-handed pitchers that's your perogative....but that's not what I've witnessed with my own eyes. And opposing coaches seem to think the same thing, as they have repeatedly changed their weekend rotation or regular mid-week starter to throw at least one southpaw against us.

(03-27-2014 10:21 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 09:45 PM)temchugh Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 08:49 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 08:43 PM)temchugh Wrote:  We play LaTech on May 15 to 17 here in Houston. Each team in CUSA plays 10 of the 12 conference opponents, so it would be impossible to miss series with all three of the three worst teams. We are fortunate to miss the two worst teams in CUSA (Marshall and Charlotte) because playing those series could only hurt us. Sweeps would do us no good. One loss out of those six games would hurt our RPI.

Winning the conference is more important than RPI, at least in my book.

Fortunately, we are on track to do both.

Last year when our strength of schedule was much lower, there certainly was a lot of complaining about having to play three game weekend series against some really weak conference teams.

Agreed. The reality is our SoS will be no worse than Top 25 - 35 this year; whereas last year (prior to post-season) it was close to 100. Consequently, so long as we keep winning at a good pace, our RPI will stay up there. It will drop a bit, but not precipitously. Having said that, given we do not play in the SEC, ACC or Pac-12, we simply must win the conference title if we want to be in the running for national seed. A Top 8 RPI, without the conference crown is unlikely to get us a national seed....but a Top 10 - 12 RPI with at least the regular season conference championship will likely keep us in the running.

I can't actually do this math, but my guess is that if you took away our five wins against ODU (RPI = 17) and FIU (RPI = 40) and replaced them with six wins against Marshall (RPI = 189) and Charlotte (RPI = 225), then our RPI would drop by quite a bit. Our record against top 50 RPI teams would also be much less impressive. I can do that math, it would be 3-6 instead of 8-7. If playing the weak teams instead of the strong teams were the difference between Rice winning the conference vs. not, then I seriously doubt that we would be anywhere close to a national seed. Last year we tied for the regular season championship (winning the tie-breaker to get the top seed in the tournament) and we won the tournament. Yet we hosted nothing (and did not deserve to host).

(03-28-2014 07:52 AM)temchugh Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:21 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 09:45 PM)temchugh Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 08:49 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 08:43 PM)temchugh Wrote:  We play LaTech on May 15 to 17 here in Houston. Each team in CUSA plays 10 of the 12 conference opponents, so it would be impossible to miss series with all three of the three worst teams. We are fortunate to miss the two worst teams in CUSA (Marshall and Charlotte) because playing those series could only hurt us. Sweeps would do us no good. One loss out of those six games would hurt our RPI.

Winning the conference is more important than RPI, at least in my book.

Fortunately, we are on track to do both.

Last year when our strength of schedule was much lower, there certainly was a lot of complaining about having to play three game weekend series against some really weak conference teams.

Agreed. The reality is our SoS will be no worse than Top 25 - 35 this year; whereas last year (prior to post-season) it was close to 100. Consequently, so long as we keep winning at a good pace, our RPI will stay up there. It will drop a bit, but not precipitously. Having said that, given we do not play in the SEC, ACC or Pac-12, we simply must win the conference title if we want to be in the running for national seed. A Top 8 RPI, without the conference crown is unlikely to get us a national seed....but a Top 10 - 12 RPI with at least the regular season conference championship will likely keep us in the running.

I can't actually do this math, but my guess is that if you took away our five wins against ODU (RPI = 17) and FIU (RPI = 40) and replaced them with six wins against Marshall (RPI = 189) and Charlotte (RPI = 225), then our RPI would drop by quite a bit. Our record against top 50 RPI teams would also be much less impressive. I can do that math, it would be 3-6 instead of 8-7. If playing the weak teams instead of the strong teams were the difference between Rice winning the conference vs. not, then I seriously doubt that we would be anywhere close to a national seed. Last year we tied for the regular season championship (winning the tie-breaker to get the top seed in the tournament) and we won the tournament. Yet we hosted nothing (and did not deserve to host).

Good grief-- aside from having such an awful SoS last year (due not only to a down year for the conference overall, but also the scheduling of Harvard, Hawaii and LaTech, and Stanford underperforming), we did not have the W - L record last year to host a regional, regardless to what our RPI might have been. I believe we had just 35 or 36 wins prior to the conference tourney. Second, and related to the first point, I think we played but 3 games against Top 50 teams last year, and had an 0-3 record in those games.

Of course, if you replace two of our higher ranked CUSA opponents with the two worst our RPI and SoS will go down significantly....and that's not what I was advocating. However, the point remains that with the highly unbalanced CUSA schedule this year, a couple of the top-tier teams get very significant scheduling advantages that will allow them to compete for the conference title.

For what it's worth [not much],Warren Nolan's calculations have RICE finishing with the # 4 RPI and 44-10 record [that's 24-3 the rest of the way!]!! HOPE he's right!

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/predictedrpi

NOTE: He also has UH finishing RPI #1 with a 29-3 finishing kick! Good luck to coogs, will only help our RPI!!

(03-28-2014 07:41 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-28-2014 07:35 AM)temchugh Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:17 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 09:41 PM)temchugh Wrote:  WaltGreenburg Said "Similarly, our offense has got to solve it's continued struggles against left-handed pitching"

I don't know why I let this stuff bother me, but I went back and reviewed the last 14 games before I ran out of steam. Since the start of the ODU series, we have:

Scored 29 runs over 48.2 innings pitched by left handed pitchers (0.60 runs per inning)

Scored 59 runs over 87.1 innings pitched by right handed pitchers (0.68 runs per inning)

Do we really need to "solve our continued struggle against LHP"? Or is this like the perception that Graham ruins pitchers? Something that will not go away regardless of actual events.

No, it's not perception; it's reality. The numbers you present are averages and are easily misleading. For example, the majority of the 14 runs scores against Texas State was against left-handed pitching, but many of those runs were gifted to us by some 14 free passes and 3 - 5 errors.

Yes, there are exceptions-- we did quickly knock out Purdue's quality left-hander early in the season, as well as FAU's ace last week...but those are the exceptions; not the rule. We DO struggle mightily against left-handed pitching. One reason is that we have two everyday left-handed hitters (Cook and Warren/Willamson) and both our switch hitters are natural left-handed hitters. Second, for whatever reason, Aquino has really, really struggled this year against left-handers. Hoelscher is the one guy who has consistently hit left-handers hard this season. Taylor, who has only been inserted into the lineup against lefties the past two weeks, also does a good job, predominantly because he doesn't try to do too much with the pitches. Rather, he's content to go up the middle or to the opposite field; whereas some of our other right-handed hitters keep trying to pull the ball.

In the Texas State game, we scored four runs in 4.1 innings against lefties and 10 runs in 4.2 inning against righties, so that game is not making the averages I presented misleading in favor of lefties. I guess that Texas State supports your argument that we hit righties much better.

So games that we score lots of runs against right handers (12 runs in 8 innings against A&M CC's 7 right handed pitchers) are because we know how to hit against them. Yes, there are exception (3 runs in 16.1 innings against all right handed pitchers in the 17 inning ODU game), but you can't draw any conclusions from the exceptions? (There was one left handed ODU pitcher in that 17 inning game but his line was zero outs and zero runs).

Against FAU, during the Friday game, we scored only two runs against their lefty ace who pitched a complete game, proving that we can't hit lefties. On Saturday, we scored eight runs in 4.1 innings against three left handed pitchers and six runs in 3.2 inning against right handed pitchers. I guess that Saturday was an exception for lefties but proved the point for righties.

Since averages are meaningless and the exceptions so confusing (at least to me), what should I look for as an indication that we are making progress against left handed pitchers?

Right. Believe what you want. If you honestly think we hit well or as well against left-handed pitchers that's your perogative....but that's not what I've witnessed with my own eyes. And opposing coaches seem to think the same thing, as they have repeatedly changed their weekend rotation or regular mid-week starter to throw at least one southpaw against us.

I've watched nearly all of Rice's games this year, and it's clear that we struggle against decent left-handed pitching. The best example is our inability to hit LHP Tyler Ford of UH. Ford hasn't started a game this season, and he's only 4th in innings-pitched for the Cougars. No one would mistake him for Sandy Koufax. But in his two appearances against Rice (10 innings total), we've gotten just 4 hits (all singles), no walks, and no runs.

What are the actual stats for hitting against LHP vs. RHP?

I looked online a bit and couldn't find a breakdown of LHP vs. RHP. Does anyone know where to find detailed hitting stats?

(03-28-2014 10:09 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  What are the actual stats for hitting against LHP vs. RHP?

I looked online a bit and couldn't find a breakdown of LHP vs. RHP. Does anyone know where to find detailed hitting stats?

Unfortunately, no team makes this available at the college level. And simply looking at scoring can be misleading as it doesn't factor in free passes, errors, wild pitches, and relief pitchers letting inherited runners score.

(03-28-2014 09:13 AM)davidelder Wrote:  I've watched nearly all of Rice's games this year, and it's clear that we struggle against decent left-handed pitching. The best example is our inability to hit LHP Tyler Ford of UH. Ford hasn't started a game this season, and he's only 4th in innings-pitched for the Cougars. No one would mistake him for Sandy Koufax. But in his two appearances against Rice (10 innings total), we've gotten just 4 hits (all singles), no walks, and no runs.

Why does every team Rice plays start a lefty if they've got one ? Where there's smoke, there must be a fire.

(03-28-2014 10:16 AM)Da.Owl Wrote:  Why does every team Rice plays start a lefty if they've got one ? Where there's smoke, there must be a fire.

Because the Walt Greenberg preview says they should. Just like everyone believes Wayne ruins pitchers because one higher profile media hack proclaims it without evidence every chance he gets.

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(03-28-2014 10:16 AM)Da.Owl Wrote:  

(03-28-2014 09:13 AM)davidelder Wrote:  I've watched nearly all of Rice's games this year, and it's clear that we struggle against decent left-handed pitching. The best example is our inability to hit LHP Tyler Ford of UH. Ford hasn't started a game this season, and he's only 4th in innings-pitched for the Cougars. No one would mistake him for Sandy Koufax. But in his two appearances against Rice (10 innings total), we've gotten just 4 hits (all singles), no walks, and no runs.

Why does every team Rice plays start a lefty if they've got one ? Where there's smoke, there must be a fire.

The ratio of LHP to RHP on any given team is generally higher than the ratio of left-handers to right-handers in the general population. That means quite a lot of starting pitchers are lefties.

Why do you and Walt suppose that teams stack their rosters with left-handers, even when they don't plan to schedule Rice in the near future?