(03-27-2014 12:41 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Malcolm Gladwell is a generally smart dude that wrote Tipping Point several years back and has been a respected commentator on social, economic, and other topics. He has done some good commentary in podcasts and articles on Grantland. He is being brought up here because he has talked about the trend for a few years now that football is taking a similar path as boxing did decades ago. Essentially, football is a sport that science is showing to be rather dangerous for injuries that people fear the most (head and neck), and most people with means do not encourage their children to participate by choice with a touch of peer pressure. That tipping point (to use a Gladwell term) occurred for boxing several decades ago, which caused the dearth of talent in the sport today. He and others are suggesting that the same thing will happen in football over the next few decades.

EerMeNow, I agree with you. I would be selling the sport at all levels if I were financially invested in it while it is at the apex.

The NFL will continue to get rich for 10-20 years at least, because the effect of parents steering their kids away from football will take a long time to fully impact the feeder chain that runs from pee-wee football to the NFL. The quality of HS football in parts of the U.S. will drop off before then, but there will be enough of a talent pool to sustain the NFL for at least several years after that.

There will eventually be an impact, though. I doubt that the people in charge of the NFL and CFB have the vision to change football enough to lower the risk of head injury to the level where it is in, say, baseball.

(03-27-2014 12:56 PM)WNCOrange Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:11 PM)EerMeNow Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:44 AM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:10 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Even before this recent ruling, I and some others have suggested that an all private school conference of eastern, non-Ivy schools would be hugely successful, even at a non-scholarship level.

Northwestern
Duke
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Miami
Notre Dame
Boston College

There's your 8 schools, just like the Ivy League. Stanford and USC would likely be glad to play most of this gang in football and basketball, and those two schools could park the rest of their sports in the WCC. All of those private schools would be in the same boat, anyway. There would likely be a heartland private conference of Tulsa, Oral Roberts, SMU, TCU, Baylor, Rice, Tulane, and maybe a few more of the private schools of Texas (Abilene, Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist). As with Stanford and USC, some of that crew would probably continue playing football and basketball with the other former P5 schools.

Duke and ND will not quit big time basketball and football, respectively. They have plenty of money to play the game no matter the rules.

None of those power conference schools are going to drop big-time sports, even if they had to start paying pro-level salaries to players. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

Malcolm Gladwell disagrees. Personally, I would not be buying long-term stock in any level of football.

Totally agree. It is going to go the way of boxing.

If that's the case, UCONN should be cheering for the downfall of football. At that time, conference realignment will be dictated by basketball, thus finally getting us into a P5!!! How can I expedite this scenario??!!!

(03-27-2014 10:10 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Even before this recent ruling, I and some others have suggested that an all private school conference of eastern, non-Ivy schools would be hugely successful, even at a non-scholarship level.

Northwestern
Duke
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Miami
Notre Dame
Boston College

There's your 8 schools, just like the Ivy League. Stanford and USC would likely be glad to play most of this gang in football and basketball, and those two schools could park the rest of their sports in the WCC. All of those private schools would be in the same boat, anyway. There would likely be a heartland private conference of Tulsa, Oral Roberts, SMU, TCU, Baylor, Rice, Tulane, and maybe a few more of the private schools of Texas (Abilene, Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist). As with Stanford and USC, some of that crew would probably continue playing football and basketball with the other former P5 schools.

I'd make the argument that Rice and Tulane would probably wish to associate with that Eastern grouping over the "heartland grouping". And I'd imagine the Eastern grouping would be happy to accommodate them. But I like the post has some nice ideas to it.

(03-27-2014 01:06 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:56 PM)WNCOrange Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:11 PM)EerMeNow Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:44 AM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Duke and ND will not quit big time basketball and football, respectively. They have plenty of money to play the game no matter the rules.

None of those power conference schools are going to drop big-time sports, even if they had to start paying pro-level salaries to players. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

Malcolm Gladwell disagrees. Personally, I would not be buying long-term stock in any level of football.

Totally agree. It is going to go the way of boxing.

If that's the case, UCONN should be cheering for the downfall of football. At that time, conference realignment will be dictated by basketball, thus finally getting us into a P5!!! How can I expedite this scenario??!!!

I hope you are under 40 so this actually occurs in your lifetime

Do you think many D1 schools will discontinue athletic schollys? I do. Most athletic programs lose money so how can
the University justify losing more money by keeping a couple hundred "new" employees. NW President Emeritus said
NW would probably go the route of the Ivy League schools, if the ruling is upheld.

(03-27-2014 01:17 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Do you think many D1 schools will discontinue athletic schollys? I do. Most athletic programs lose money so how can
the University justify losing more money by keeping a couple hundred "new" employees. NW President Emeritus said
NW would probably go the route of the Ivy League schools, if the ruling is upheld.

i have been saying this for quite some time. sooner or later the schools will realize that they have had a nice run but it is time to get out while they are still ahead. They are about to get hit by a tsunami and now would be an appropriate time to say "screw it....I quit."

(03-27-2014 12:40 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:11 PM)EerMeNow Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:44 AM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:10 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Even before this recent ruling, I and some others have suggested that an all private school conference of eastern, non-Ivy schools would be hugely successful, even at a non-scholarship level.

Northwestern
Duke
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Miami
Notre Dame
Boston College

There's your 8 schools, just like the Ivy League. Stanford and USC would likely be glad to play most of this gang in football and basketball, and those two schools could park the rest of their sports in the WCC. All of those private schools would be in the same boat, anyway. There would likely be a heartland private conference of Tulsa, Oral Roberts, SMU, TCU, Baylor, Rice, Tulane, and maybe a few more of the private schools of Texas (Abilene, Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist). As with Stanford and USC, some of that crew would probably continue playing football and basketball with the other former P5 schools.

Duke and ND will not quit big time basketball and football, respectively. They have plenty of money to play the game no matter the rules.

None of those power conference schools are going to drop big-time sports, even if they had to start paying pro-level salaries to players. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

Malcolm Gladwell disagrees. Personally, I would not be buying long-term stock in any level of football.

I love Malcolm Gladwell in general (I've read all of his books), but on the particular subject of football participation, I think he's on the very high end of pessimism.

Plus, the right to collectively bargain is not the same as the ability to collectively bargain successfully. Just look at college basketball and football players' very own pro counterparts in the NBA and NFL, where pro athlete unions with access to the best and most expensive representation available still got rolled over by the owners.

Ultimately, college athletes are going to get paid at some level, especially at the power conference level where the revenue for even the Northwesterns and Wake Forests of the world (much less the likes of Notre Dame, USC and Duke) is still simply waaaaaaaaaay too great in comparison to what they'd ever be realistically paying out to athletes. Anyone that has tried to deny this has been sticking their head in the stand or attempting to perpetuate the myth that college sports are still amateur sports. Now, that doesn't mean that they're going to get paid a *lot* necessarily, as we've seen in the NBA and NFL lockouts. It would be smart for the NCAA and universities to find a way to deal with this separately from the largely messy and inefficient unions instead of continuing with their denial.

Even at the professional level, collective bargaining provides for wide disparity in compensation between stars and journeyman players. At the college level, where such a high percentage of players will never even sniff an NFL locker room, the disparity would likely be so great that compensation might not ever even be an issue that makes it to the bargaining table.

This case has more symbolic value - it goes to the definition of whether major college sports, at least football (and by extension, probably men's bball) are amateur or professional in nature. The ramifications of any decision that might ultimately prevail won't just affect college sports. This goes to the heart of America's cultural identity. Whether we want to admit it or not, if we honestly ranked where we as a nation value sports and education, I'm afraid we would put sports higher.

If I were a Northwestern Student or Alum, I'd want to punch Mr. Kain in the face right about now....

just the thought that you might have witnessed the last days of your football or basketball team just because numnut athletes are trying to get a piece of the pie is jarring....

these spoiled athletes are going to learn fast that when sports media is pumping you up and making you feel special, that its always important to have the fan on your side. THE FAN is the hidden negotiating piece, because once THE FAN realizes the true writing on the wall, that if you, the spoiled athlete, get your way, then its possible that the sports programs might get cut, then public sentiment for this **** is going to turn fast and get ugly.....

These college football players overestimate their value in the scheme of things....the fans don't really care about the star players, they care about the jersey. Don't **** with the jersey

(03-27-2014 01:47 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:40 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:11 PM)EerMeNow Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:44 AM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Duke and ND will not quit big time basketball and football, respectively. They have plenty of money to play the game no matter the rules.

None of those power conference schools are going to drop big-time sports, even if they had to start paying pro-level salaries to players. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

Malcolm Gladwell disagrees. Personally, I would not be buying long-term stock in any level of football.

I love Malcolm Gladwell in general (I've read all of his books), but on the particular subject of football participation, I think he's on the very high end of pessimism.

Plus, the right to collectively bargain is not the same as the ability to collectively bargain successfully. Just look at college basketball and football players' very own pro counterparts in the NBA and NFL, where pro athlete unions with access to the best and most expensive representation available still got rolled over by the owners.

Ultimately, college athletes are going to get paid at some level, especially at the power conference level where the revenue for even the Northwesterns and Wake Forests of the world (much less the likes of Notre Dame, USC and Duke) is still simply waaaaaaaaaay too great in comparison to what they'd ever be realistically paying out to athletes. Anyone that has tried to deny this has been sticking their head in the stand or attempting to perpetuate the myth that college sports are still amateur sports. Now, that doesn't mean that they're going to get paid a *lot* necessarily, as we've seen in the NBA and NFL lockouts. It would be smart for the NCAA and universities to find a way to deal with this separately from the largely messy and inefficient unions instead of continuing with their denial.

Even at the professional level, collective bargaining provides for wide disparity in compensation between stars and journeyman players. At the college level, where such a high percentage of players will never even sniff an NFL locker room, the disparity would likely be so great that compensation might not ever even be an issue that makes it to the bargaining table.

This case has more symbolic value - it goes to the definition of whether major college sports, at least football (and by extension, probably men's bball) are amateur or professional in nature. The ramifications of any decision that might ultimately prevail won't just affect college sports. This goes to the heart of America's cultural identity. Whether we want to admit it or not, if we honestly ranked where we as a nation value sports and education, I'm afraid we would put sports higher.

excellent post!!!! very very true

But I think if it really came down to it, **** or get off the pot.....Universities are going to maintain what they are....which is Universities. Mr. Kain and Co. are deluded in thinking they are on some crusade for the student athlete, because if it comes down to it, Northwestern isn't going to negotiate to pay people to play sports....they're going to cut the programs.

In the end, you would see Education win the day vs. sports entertainment. 99.9% of the Universities in this country are not going to venture into establishing minor league sports. The system works now, because they get their cake and can eat it too. Athletes aren't going to bully Universities into establishing minor league systems....not gonna happen (except perhaps at Alabama or Notre Dame)

But I agree with your post....the underlying message out of all of this shows just how our emphasis on sports in our culture is completely out of whack....

(03-27-2014 01:29 PM)john01992 Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 01:17 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Do you think many D1 schools will discontinue athletic schollys? I do. Most athletic programs lose money so how can
the University justify losing more money by keeping a couple hundred "new" employees. NW President Emeritus said
NW would probably go the route of the Ivy League schools, if the ruling is upheld.

i have been saying this for quite some time. sooner or later the schools will realize that they have had a nice run but it is time to get out while they are still ahead. They are about to get hit by a tsunami and now would be an appropriate time to say "screw it....I quit."

I wouldn't hang it up on the Universities or the NCAA just yet....I expect them to hit back hard

Right now this union-**** is basically threatening the existence of the private universities. For the majority of them, there won't be any "negotiating". They either win the appeal, or they cut sports, pure and simple. Crack-smoking sports media writers don't seem to get this....

And if any Private school, like Notre Dame, tried to start paying its players....well, I'd imagine the rest of the public schools would have a long long meeting with the NCAA and look at heavy sanctions, death-penalty type stuff

Making the student-athlete an "employee" on any level is not going to happen....

(03-27-2014 01:57 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  If I were a Northwestern Student or Alum, I'd want to punch Mr. Kain in the face right about now....

just the thought that you might have witnessed the last days of your football or basketball team just because numnut athletes are trying to get a piece of the pie is jarring....

these spoiled athletes are going to learn fast that when sports media is pumping you up and making you feel special, that its always important to have the fan on your side. THE FAN is the hidden negotiating piece, because once THE FAN realizes the true writing on the wall, that if you, the spoiled athlete, get your way, then its possible that the sports programs might get cut, then public sentiment for this **** is going to turn fast and get ugly.....

These college football players overestimate their value in the scheme of things....the fans don't really care about the star players, they care about the jersey. Don't **** with the jersey

I agree with you here. College fans are different from Pro fans.

And now for the tax part.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...yers-union

(03-27-2014 01:14 PM)brista21 Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:10 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Even before this recent ruling, I and some others have suggested that an all private school conference of eastern, non-Ivy schools would be hugely successful, even at a non-scholarship level.

Northwestern
Duke
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Miami
Notre Dame
Boston College

There's your 8 schools, just like the Ivy League. Stanford and USC would likely be glad to play most of this gang in football and basketball, and those two schools could park the rest of their sports in the WCC. All of those private schools would be in the same boat, anyway. There would likely be a heartland private conference of Tulsa, Oral Roberts, SMU, TCU, Baylor, Rice, Tulane, and maybe a few more of the private schools of Texas (Abilene, Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist). As with Stanford and USC, some of that crew would probably continue playing football and basketball with the other former P5 schools.

I'd make the argument that Rice and Tulane would probably wish to associate with that Eastern grouping over the "heartland grouping". And I'd imagine the Eastern grouping would be happy to accommodate them. But I like the post has some nice ideas to it.

Thanks. Indeed, Tulane and Rice would have some options because of their academic prowess, and those that can remember the wild WAC days when Tulane seemed to be playing on the west coast every other game know they have no issue with traveling. A Texas-centric private school conference would definitely be possible, though. There are a ton in the area. As I said above, most of these private schools only have a couple of peers that are close to them, and then they have to travel a bit. Playing nationally for football and parking the rest of the sports in a regional conference makes financial sense under such a scenario for USC, Stanford, BYU, TCU, Baylor, and maybe Rice and Tulane. The WCC and that "heartland" grouping I mentioned would be just fine for competition in basketball and the other sports that each region finds important.