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Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
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FloridaJag Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
Thanks for the correction. I guess then

East

Central Florida
Connecticut
Navy
James Madison
Massachussets
South Florida
Temple


West

Cincinnati
Houston
East Carolina
Southern Methodist
Tulane
Tulsa

Memphis
[/quote]
03-27-2014 09:06 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
AAC should make a FB sch agreement with Mass.
Eventally AAC might need Mass
03-27-2014 09:15 AM
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jaredf29 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
I think some people are forgetting that the AAC tv contract isn't going to get larger. We're not inviting anyone to further dilute our $ even further, or even our prestige as a conference which is still struggling perceptionwise.
03-27-2014 09:23 AM
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FloridaJag Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 09:23 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  I think some people are forgetting that the AAC tv contract isn't going to get larger. We're not inviting anyone to further dilute our $ even further, or even our prestige as a conference which is still struggling perceptionwise.

When is the next Look-in to the contract?
03-27-2014 09:26 AM
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Wilkie01 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 09:06 AM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Thanks for the correction. I guess then

East

Central Florida
Connecticut
Navy
James Madison
Massachussets
South Florida
Temple


West

Cincinnati
Houston
East Carolina
Southern Methodist
Tulane
Tulsa

Memphis
[/quote]

Why not go on to 16 teams add Old Dominion and Western Kentucky?
03-27-2014 09:36 AM
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Hank Schrader Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 09:36 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  
(03-27-2014 09:06 AM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Thanks for the correction. I guess then

East

Central Florida
Connecticut
Navy
James Madison
Massachussets
South Florida
Temple


West

Cincinnati
Houston
East Carolina
Southern Methodist
Tulane
Tulsa

Memphis

Why not go on to 16 teams add Old Dominion and Western Kentucky?
[/quote]

03-banghead

This is my nightmare.
03-27-2014 09:54 AM
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HuskyU Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 09:36 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  
(03-27-2014 09:06 AM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Thanks for the correction. I guess then

East

Central Florida
Connecticut
Navy
James Madison
Massachussets
South Florida
Temple


West

Cincinnati
Houston
East Carolina
Southern Methodist
Tulane
Tulsa

Memphis

Why not go on to 16 teams add Old Dominion and Western Kentucky?
[/quote]

Yes please. Let's make that happen starting next year. 02-13-banana
03-27-2014 10:06 AM
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BruceMcF Online
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Post: #28
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 09:06 AM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Thanks for the correction. I guess then
But that's not getting to 12, that's getting to 14, and there's no special CCG bonus for getting to 14 ... each add past 12 has to add more to the media and other value than the add before.

JMU and UMass to the AAC adds less media value than the add before.

The answer to whether the AAC would add JMU and UMass to get to 12 is that its impossible: getting to twelve is important enough that the AAC has already got that sorted out.

The answer to whether the AAC would add JMU and UMass to "get to 14" is that the question has got it turned around backwards: you don't add schools to "get to" 14, you see schools that are attractive enough to add (thinking like a School President) to justify the penalty of going to 14.

And when the question is turned the right way around, it seems like they wouldn't.

If Army, which despite their woeful record the last couple of decades is still a national name brand, wanted to join FB only, then the AAC would probably be looking for the best 14th. Other than that, its not easy to see a pair out there that covers the penalties of going from 12 to 14.
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2014 10:08 AM by BruceMcF.)
03-27-2014 10:08 AM
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Post: #29
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 09:23 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  I think some people are forgetting that the AAC tv contract isn't going to get larger. We're not inviting anyone to further dilute our $ even further, or even our prestige as a conference which is still struggling perceptionwise.

The math isn't hard.
At $1 million per team in CFP money X 12 =$12 million.
$2 million per team in ESPN money X 12 = $24 million.
Total equals $36 million. For current members to be kept whole upon adding two members would require $6 million in total new revenue for the AAC and with the CFP money capped, those two new teams would have to have a TV value of $1 million each greater than the current AAC members.

But doesn't stop people from thinking there is a magical pot o' gold that will make 14 worth the AAC's time.
03-27-2014 10:14 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 08:14 AM)Niner National Wrote:  Am I the only one that thinks UMass might just be screwed?

Their football program is struggling and has pretty awful support. With the AAC standing a fair shot at getting the increased payout for being the best G5 conference many seasons, why would they jeopardize that by bringing in UMass?

Would UCONN even allow it?

Would they look only at this year's basketball results and ignore the last 15 years of no NCAA tournaments?

Would UMass fans even get excited about playing Texas, Louisiana, NC, and Florida schools?

I just have a hard time seeing it happen to be quite honest.

The football program has two years to do something meaningful in the MAC and I believe their new (former) coach is highly regarded. We know the MAC wanted them all-sports and if the two years run out I'm sure the two sides could have a powwow or they could go independent. Even Idaho, possibly the worst FBS program ever, will not drop down to FCS. That doesn't seem like something UMass would do either. Ultimately, I think they need to upgrade their on-campus stadium regardless. Get your students at the games and make the environment better than UConn and BC's.

The basketball side is much more secure than just one tourney in the last fifteen years. They have three 20+ win seasons in a row and have been on the bubble a few years in between then and the last appearance. I believe they almost won the NIT but lost to Ohio State because I remember watching the game. Anyway, most importantly in regards to basketball, their coach is a former player and that means their future could be secure if he keeps up what he's doing.

UConn is publicly pimping themselves to other conferences, how can anyone in the AAC take them seriously? Cincinnati is guilty of this too.

Just when we thought realignment was dead....COGS
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2014 10:16 AM by esayem.)
03-27-2014 10:14 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 10:14 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-27-2014 09:23 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  I think some people are forgetting that the AAC tv contract isn't going to get larger. We're not inviting anyone to further dilute our $ even further, or even our prestige as a conference which is still struggling perceptionwise.

The math isn't hard.
At $1 million per team in CFP money X 12 =$12 million.
$2 million per team in ESPN money X 12 = $24 million.
Total equals $36 million. For current members to be kept whole upon adding two members would require $6 million in total new revenue for the AAC and with the CFP money capped, those two new teams would have to have a TV value of $1 million each greater than the current AAC members.

But doesn't stop people from thinking there is a magical pot o' gold that will make 14 worth the AAC's time.

Right now, the only conference that can add UMass and possibly even earn thier current members a raise is the Sunbelt. ThenSB would suffer No dilution of BCS/CFP earnings and it gives the Sunbelt a CCG game they might could sell for some decent coin.
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2014 10:22 AM by Attackcoog.)
03-27-2014 10:21 AM
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LouPower Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
UMass just needs to get rid of football. It's not working.
03-27-2014 10:48 AM
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Post: #33
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 09:23 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  I think some people are forgetting that the AAC tv contract isn't going to get larger. We're not inviting anyone to further dilute our $ even further, or even our prestige as a conference which is still struggling perceptionwise.
The one step that would clearly increase the AAC's media value would be bringing the Army / Navy game in conference, but for the same reason Army and Navy are unlikely to accept the Army/Navy game being played in conference ... that is one of the major strikes against the AAC from the Army perspective, that having the Army/Navy game as part of a conference ladder would require it to be played before CCG weekend, instead of the following open week.

The AAC has the best markets in the Go5, what it needs are schools that people in those markets will tune in to watch ... and the UMass/JMU combination does not offer any clear promise to do better on that score than the average pair of existing AAC schools.
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2014 10:55 AM by BruceMcF.)
03-27-2014 10:54 AM
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Post: #34
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 10:48 AM)LouPower Wrote:  UMass just needs to get rid of football. It's not working.

Or at least move back to FCS. They had a consistent team and decent fan support when they played on campus and in the CAA. Unfortunately, being FCS has such a stink to it that even the 20-25 schools in the G5 that should be playing FCS will never drop. In time though, I could see UMASS being extended an invite. They won't be terrible forever and it is a state flagship school.

JMU though? Hahahaha. Not a chance. The Sun Belt is probably the only life boat out there for us right now and the admin has been adamant about not joining for quite some time now.
03-27-2014 11:01 AM
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Post: #35
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
UMass will probably have to go independent in football or go back to FCS unless the SBC extends a lifeline to them.
03-27-2014 11:17 AM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 10:14 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-27-2014 09:23 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  I think some people are forgetting that the AAC tv contract isn't going to get larger. We're not inviting anyone to further dilute our $ even further, or even our prestige as a conference which is still struggling perceptionwise.

The math isn't hard.
At $1 million per team in CFP money X 12 =$12 million.
$2 million per team in ESPN money X 12 = $24 million.
Total equals $36 million. For current members to be kept whole upon adding two members would require $6 million in total new revenue for the AAC and with the CFP money capped, those two new teams would have to have a TV value of $1 million each greater than the current AAC members.

But doesn't stop people from thinking there is a magical pot o' gold that will make 14 worth the AAC's time.

Add 17M to that for NCAA tournament credit money. There are other revenue streams also. AAC makes light years more money than any other G5 from NCAA tourn credits (9 earned so far this year, compared to 1 for the other G5's excetp MWC who has 3 I believe).
03-27-2014 11:31 AM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 08:14 AM)Niner National Wrote:  Am I the only one that thinks UMass might just be screwed?

Their football program is struggling and has pretty awful support. With the AAC standing a fair shot at getting the increased payout for being the best G5 conference many seasons, why would they jeopardize that by bringing in UMass?

Would UCONN even allow it?

Presumably, UConn wants UMass in the AAC about as much as BC wants UConn in the ACC. IOW, "over my dead body."

The SBC might happen for them because UMass, as a 12th FB team, would allow the SBC to collect an additional $1 million/year from the CFP and to hold a football title game that should get them $1 million/year from ESPN.

But for UMass, what's their end goal of having FBS football? It's not playing a Sun Belt "conference game" against Idaho in Foxborough. They've already decided it's not full membership in the MAC. They're not getting into the American unless UConn leaves it.

Speaking of Idaho, you could ask the same question about them. Maybe both are just hanging around FBS for 5 years or so to see if there will be some kind of earthquake that shatters existing G5 conferences and leaves places for them.
03-27-2014 11:32 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
I think many of these lower tier FBS schools don't want to go FCS because they are afraid of the negative publicity. They'll be mocked and scorned for awhile and will likely probably never be invited back to an FBS conference. Idaho should go to the Big Sky and UMASS should go back to the CAA. Who knows though, maybe if a few schools bite the bullet and reclassify down, there will be a wave of more schools that say "screw it, FBS isn't worth it."
03-27-2014 11:41 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 11:31 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  There are other revenue streams also. AAC makes light years more money than any other G5 from NCAA tourn credits (9 earned so far this year, compared to 1 for the other G5's excetp MWC who has 3 I believe).

I would add though that the main school being discussed, Umass, is not in a G5 conference: they are in the A10. The A10 also has 9 and counting. 05-stirthepot

Now I am the first one to mention that there is more to conference realignment than the next TV contract. But for UMass, the AAC without a place for its football, likely doesn't make a lot of sense, especially once you add in exit fees and such.
03-27-2014 11:56 AM
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Post: #40
RE: Does the AAC invite UMASS and JMU to get to 12?
(03-27-2014 10:54 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(03-27-2014 09:23 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  I think some people are forgetting that the AAC tv contract isn't going to get larger. We're not inviting anyone to further dilute our $ even further, or even our prestige as a conference which is still struggling perceptionwise.
The one step that would clearly increase the AAC's media value would be bringing the Army / Navy game in conference, but for the same reason Army and Navy are unlikely to accept the Army/Navy game being played in conference ... that is one of the major strikes against the AAC from the Army perspective, that having the Army/Navy game as part of a conference ladder would require it to be played before CCG weekend, instead of the following open week.

The AAC has the best markets in the Go5, what it needs are schools that people in those markets will tune in to watch ... and the UMass/JMU combination does not offer any clear promise to do better on that score than the average pair of existing AAC schools.

The question is how valuable is Army-Navy when the competition is regular season everyone else? It used to be high value the final week of the season when most everyone not headed to a bowl game had called it a year. When that final weekend became blockbuster TV with the championship games the game had to get a carve-out from the NCAA to move to the week after the legal playing dates ended to remain valuable.

I have my doubts the Army-Navy game significantly moves the needle for TV on an earlier date. The last five years of playing the last legal date they didn't draw a 2.5 rating four of those times. Moving to the no competition weekend boosted it to a 3.8 and 3.9 (over 6 million viewers).
03-27-2014 12:12 PM
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