(03-25-2014 05:13 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 04:57 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:48 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

Yikes, that non-conference schedule is even softer than Marshall's.

We hate the two FCS opponents... But confident this won't repeat itself...

I'm assuming either you had a non-conference game contracted that became a conference game or a late cancellation. That's the usual cause for that sort of thing.

Late cancelation was the cause... We just have win seven games instead of six to go bowling this year... No big deal.

(03-25-2014 05:23 PM)ncbeta Wrote:  That won happen though.

I agree

With the new improved exposure, recruiting will get better at most/all AAC programs... I'm thinking 1-3 more years the AAC can most definitely.

With only four slots, the likelihood of a g5 getting in is close to nil, it may happen 1 time in 50 years. The playoffs will expand before any get in. If there isnt already a split that cuts the g5 out for good.

Don't sleep on Houston

The committee will be made of humans who will select the 4 , no computers, no coaches poll, no AP poll, so no one really knows how it going to play out, SOS will count big time. if you have a undefeated (1) AAC & three ( 1) loss P5's, it could happen sooner than anyone thinks. Especially after UCF win against a P5 is still fresh in the country mind. So if it's going to happen, it stands to reason 2014 CFP would be it, since there is no real separation, between the AAC and the P5's; especially if there are a couple of big time upsets by the AAC over say teams like OU & Ohio State.

(03-25-2014 10:28 PM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  The committee will be made of humans who will select the 4 , no computers, no coaches poll, no AP poll, so no one really knows how it going to play out, SOS will count big time. if you have a undefeated (1) AAC & three ( 1) loss P5's, it could happen sooner than anyone thinks. Especially after UCF win against a P5 is still fresh in the country mind. So if it's going to happen, it stands to reason 2014 CFP would be it, since there is no real separation, between the AAC and the P5's; especially if there are a couple of big time upsets by the AAC over say teams like OU & Ohio State.

Are the committee members going to be sequestered like jurors all season long?

They are going to see the AP poll. The USA Today poll. They are going to see the computer ratings and like the basketball selection committee are most certainly going to go in the room armed with printouts of computer ratings.

I don't know why the Houston contingent is so confident they are going to do nothing but sit down with the names of the five conference champions and some sort of strength of schedule rating and automatically select the champion with the highest SOS.

If you look at the SOS of the non-AQ over the past few years, they have tended to be grouped fairly closely and the difference when coupled with record is usually fairly well reflected in the polls.

(03-25-2014 11:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:28 PM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  The committee will be made of humans who will select the 4 , no computers, no coaches poll, no AP poll, so no one really knows how it going to play out, SOS will count big time. if you have a undefeated (1) AAC & three ( 1) loss P5's, it could happen sooner than anyone thinks. Especially after UCF win against a P5 is still fresh in the country mind. So if it's going to happen, it stands to reason 2014 CFP would be it, since there is no real separation, between the AAC and the P5's; especially if there are a couple of big time upsets by the AAC over say teams like OU & Ohio State.

Are the committee members going to be sequestered like jurors all season long?

They are going to see the AP poll. The USA Today poll. They are going to see the computer ratings and like the basketball selection committee are most certainly going to go in the room armed with printouts of computer ratings.

I don't know why the Houston contingent is so confident they are going to do nothing but sit down with the names of the five conference champions and some sort of strength of schedule rating and automatically select the champion with the highest SOS.

If you look at the SOS of the non-AQ over the past few years, they have tended to be grouped fairly closely and the difference when coupled with record is usually fairly well reflected in the polls.

I'm talking about an undefeated AAC team, not just from a Houston perspective in this matter, of course I like it to be Houston..

Wrong. It will happen at least once in the next 4 years, and possibly more.

The huge difference for the G5 here, is that what you said about the four team playoff WAS TRUE about the two team playoff. Very few G5s had a chance for the championship even with a perfect season.

Now- IMO - a G5 with a perfect season AND a couple of high-quality wins (OOC or not) is nearly a lock for a playoff berth.

Furthermore, IMO, two unbeaten G5 teams can go to access bowls in the same season. That scenario doesn't happen very often but when it does, the committee can now take both (and probably will). Instead of the old system where the big boy bowls could lock out the best teams because of their conference affiliation or fan base considerations ($$)

(03-25-2014 09:47 PM)cleburneslim Wrote:  With only four slots, the likelihood of a g5 getting in is close to nil, it may happen 1 time in 50 years. The playoffs will expand before any get in. If there isnt already a split that cuts the g5 out for good.

(03-26-2014 07:26 AM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 11:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:28 PM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  The committee will be made of humans who will select the 4 , no computers, no coaches poll, no AP poll, so no one really knows how it going to play out, SOS will count big time. if you have a undefeated (1) AAC & three ( 1) loss P5's, it could happen sooner than anyone thinks. Especially after UCF win against a P5 is still fresh in the country mind. So if it's going to happen, it stands to reason 2014 CFP would be it, since there is no real separation, between the AAC and the P5's; especially if there are a couple of big time upsets by the AAC over say teams like OU & Ohio State.

Are the committee members going to be sequestered like jurors all season long?

They are going to see the AP poll. The USA Today poll. They are going to see the computer ratings and like the basketball selection committee are most certainly going to go in the room armed with printouts of computer ratings.

I don't know why the Houston contingent is so confident they are going to do nothing but sit down with the names of the five conference champions and some sort of strength of schedule rating and automatically select the champion with the highest SOS.

If you look at the SOS of the non-AQ over the past few years, they have tended to be grouped fairly closely and the difference when coupled with record is usually fairly well reflected in the polls.

I'm talking about an undefeated AAC team, not just from a Houston perspective in this matter, of course I like it to be Houston..

Not debating the advantage an AAC or MWC undefeated has over Sun Belt, MAC, CUSA. The argument has been made that SOS would allow them to trump a better record Sun Belt, MAC, CUSA in selection.

Hypothetically a G5 conference member could make it into a four team playoff, but it isn't very likely with SOS becoming very important. There isn't likely to be a G5 conference with a higher SOS than the lowest rated P5 conferences. If they were undefeated and beat a couple of good to great P5 teams, and there are multiple P5 schools in consideration that have more than one loss perhaps.

They can dream about playing Big Boy FB, but it's only a dream.

I don't think it will be one out of four years but one out of 50 requires ignoring the history of how frequently non-power teams crack the top 4.