What if the Big XII would have taken West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville all at once effective July 1, 2012?

Would the Big East stuck with Temple and added 2 more eastern schools in an attempt to maintain its original footprint? Or could have it raided the Mountain West in an attempt for a cross-country football conference and a 3-time zone all sports conference? Would the Catholic 7/8 have checked out early?

My guess is the eastern option would look something like this:

Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida, Connecticut, UMass*, Memphis, Temple* (*football only for. 2012, all sports in 2013)

Memphis would join for all-sports in 2012 and Middle Tennessee would take their place in C-USA. The Sun Belt stays at 9 in football.

The western option might look like this:

East - Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida, Connecticut, Temple*
West - New Mexico, Colorado State, Wyoming, Boise State*, San Diego State*, Fresno State*

The Big East disbands the Mountain West by taking 6 of its 10 members in some capacity. The WAC gets back Nevada, Hawaii, UNLV, and Air Force to get to 11 in football and 10 in all sports. Air Force and Navy eventually join the Big East for football only in 2015.

In either scenario, since the ACC can't replace Maryland with Louisville, they take Connecticut from the Big East who is replaced by Houston for 2014. SMU and UCF still replace Pittsburgh and Syracuse in 2013.

In the Eastern option, the Big East replaces Rutgers with Tulane. When the C7 split, Tulsa and ECU get added and a 12th school is named later.

In the Western option, Rutgers is replaced with UMass. The C7 split merely converts Temple and Air Force to full members for a total of 10 full members and 14 in football.

(03-18-2014 09:18 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  What if the Big XII would have taken West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville all at once effective July 1, 2012?

Would the Big East stuck with Temple and added 2 more eastern schools in an attempt to maintain its original footprint? Or could have it raided the Mountain West in an attempt for a cross-country football conference and a 3-time zone all sports conference? Would the Catholic 7/8 have checked out early?

My guess is the eastern option would look something like this:

Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida, Connecticut, UMass*, Memphis, Temple* (*football only for. 2012, all sports in 2013)

Memphis would join for all-sports in 2012 and Middle Tennessee would take their place in C-USA. The Sun Belt stays at 9 in football.

The western option might look like this:

East - Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida, Connecticut, Temple*
West - New Mexico, Colorado State, Wyoming, Boise State*, San Diego State*, Fresno State*

The Big East disbands the Mountain West by taking 6 of its 10 members in some capacity. The WAC gets back Nevada, Hawaii, UNLV, and Air Force to get to 11 in football and 10 in all sports. Air Force and Navy eventually join the Big East for football only in 2015.

In either scenario, since the ACC can't replace Maryland with Louisville, they take Connecticut from the Big East who is replaced by Houston for 2014. SMU and UCF still replace Pittsburgh and Syracuse in 2013.

In the Eastern option, the Big East replaces Rutgers with Tulane. When the C7 split, Tulsa and ECU get added and a 12th school is named later.

In the Western option, Rutgers is replaced with UMass. The C7 split merely converts Temple and Air Force to full members for a total of 10 full members and 14 in football.

How do Pitt or Syracuse end up in either scenario? They were gone before WVU.

most likely IMO UConn would go to ACC instead of Louisville. ND as well. USF being left would probably have to go back to cusa and anyone else that was invited prior to this point would back out. thus no American conference. The BE would probably still be what it is today

Big 12 North would have been down right nasty in hoops this year - Kansas, Louisville, Iowa State, Cincinnati, K-State.

(03-18-2014 09:30 PM)prp Wrote:  

(03-18-2014 09:18 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  What if the Big XII would have taken West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville all at once effective July 1, 2012?

Would the Big East stuck with Temple and added 2 more eastern schools in an attempt to maintain its original footprint? Or could have it raided the Mountain West in an attempt for a cross-country football conference and a 3-time zone all sports conference? Would the Catholic 7/8 have checked out early?

My guess is the eastern option would look something like this:

Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida, Connecticut, UMass*, Memphis, Temple* (*football only for. 2012, all sports in 2013)

Memphis would join for all-sports in 2012 and Middle Tennessee would take their place in C-USA. The Sun Belt stays at 9 in football.

The western option might look like this:

East - Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida, Connecticut, Temple*
West - New Mexico, Colorado State, Wyoming, Boise State*, San Diego State*, Fresno State*

The Big East disbands the Mountain West by taking 6 of its 10 members in some capacity. The WAC gets back Nevada, Hawaii, UNLV, and Air Force to get to 11 in football and 10 in all sports. Air Force and Navy eventually join the Big East for football only in 2015.

In either scenario, since the ACC can't replace Maryland with Louisville, they take Connecticut from the Big East who is replaced by Houston for 2014. SMU and UCF still replace Pittsburgh and Syracuse in 2013.

In the Eastern option, the Big East replaces Rutgers with Tulane. When the C7 split, Tulsa and ECU get added and a 12th school is named later.

In the Western option, Rutgers is replaced with UMass. The C7 split merely converts Temple and Air Force to full members for a total of 10 full members and 14 in football.

How do Pitt or Syracuse end up in either scenario? They were gone before WVU.

No. SU and Pitt announced an intention to leave before WVU, but we honored more of the wait period than the Mountaineers, so they actually left first. That's why they paid a LOT more in exit fees (20 million v. 7.5 million).

The more interesting scenario is the B12 taking Louisville, Cinci and WVU to get to 12-- which forces the ACC to take UConn.

At that point, without Lv, Cinci and UConn, the AAC is C-USA reborn, and is a lot less of a viable league (there goes its 3/4 NCAA tourney teams).

With that arrangement, the B12 is in play for the FSU/Clemson move if it were to happen back then. Ideally, they get FSU and Clemson and are a 14 strong league with
ISU, KU, KSU, OU, OSU, TEX, TTU in the West and
TCU, BAY, LV, CIN, WV, FSU, CLEM in the East

and dangled offers to Georgia Tech, Notre Dame (prior to ACC deal), and/or a Rice/Tulane to get to 16

WOW

two major things would of developed, neither of which the OP got into.

1. the b12 would of had to gone to a divisions setup.
the b12 by its demographic nature is a very hard conference to split up into divisions. this would of led to more conference in-fighting and giving schools that had already tried to leave an even bigger incentive to leave. it would of effectively destabilized the league even more than it already was. this is why only adding 2 schools was a genius move by the b12 because it was one less internal fight to deal with at a time when the conference couldn't afford to have any in-fighting.

the pac12 nearly had a mutiny over this issue* and the ACC is trying so hard to eliminate divisions because so many of its members from within the conference are pissed off about the new divisions. with a 12 team b12 the schools would be a lot less inclined to sign a GOR, the member schools would not be standing together in the same manner as they were in reality. this may sound silly but schools being all on the same page actually goes a very long way in gaining leverage during tv negotiations. with 12 schools the b12 would of ended up with less money, split more ways, no GOR, and more resentment between the schools. it effectively would of guaranteed more defections within 1-3 years.

*this is most likely the biggest reason as to why the pac did not add any more schools after going to 12. they would of ran into the same "divisions problem" as the b12.

for those of you calling me crazy for saying by adding 4 schools the b12 would of ended up with less money split more ways:

while people will continue to blast the wvu/tcu move because they failed to secure ville and eventually lost them to the ACC. what people fail to realize is that the b12 had all but signed a TV contract negotiated for a 10 team league before the texas a&m/missouri departures. all the b12 needed was two replacements. with 12 teams they effectively would of had to start over in tv negotiations with 4 less than ideal schools on the negotiating table. no offense to these 4 but they are not the "total package." on top of that the b12 would of lost the money that would of gone to mizz/aggie....money that the b12 managed to retain adding tcu/wvu. remember that in this scenario it would be very hard to fathom the b12 signing a GOR......do you honestly believe fox would be as willing to pay out big bucks without that safety net?

2. the ACC timeline of events completely changes
with the b12 going to 4 and making less money maryland would not feel as threatened staying in the ACC. you may go WTF......."how can I say that" but it is the threat of revenue disparity.....the feeling of being left behind in the never ending cash grab that is CFB that scares college admins into conference realignment more so than the prosperity of making more money.

TBH i think most schools could care less what their TV payout is ==> just as long as it's in the same league as their competition. so what we will see is with the b12 not getting that blockbuster 20 mill per school contract maryland would have had a smaller incentive to leave. while UMD was facing budget problems, the truth is that the line of thought among college admins across the nation would be in a completely different state of thought.

On top of that think of this from the perspective of other conferences.......

the b10
the b12 would of been extremely unstable. while I have been a huge proponent that maryland was an academic driven move by the b10. part of the reason they went to the east in the first place is because texas wasn't an option in the west.

in this alternate version the b10 would of been working with a different lineup. the east would of been harder for them to expand in while they would of had an easier time in the west. something that was the complete opposite in reality.

I can not fathom the b10 settling/focusing on rutgers or maryland (let alone both) when they had a goldmine in the west (texas). the b10 could of even swiped mizz and/or aggie away from the sec before they ever played a game in that conference as part of a texas combo.

the pac12
in reality the p12 rejected the texahoma in this time period and the b12 quickly stabilized soon after. but in this alternate version the b12 would never have stabilized which meant:

-the pac would have had time to reconsider after watching events unfold

-the pac would have to bite the bullet on the "divisions problem" add the texahoma or risk losing them to the sec, acc, or b10

which brings us back full circle to the whole "b10 going east with rutgers/maryland"

the truth is that what you are proposing is like changing a key event in world history and having to guess how it affected future events. you can't do it and it is all speculative at best. but regardless of what happens in this version of events the ACC would never have had to deal with "the uconn problem" because there's a chance they never would of lost maryland in the first place. but if they did they still would of been in a much better position to add rutgers or raid the b12.

(03-18-2014 09:18 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  The western option might look like this:

East - Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida, Connecticut, Temple*
West - New Mexico, Colorado State, Wyoming, Boise State*, San Diego State*, Fresno State*

The Big East disbands the Mountain West by taking 6 of its 10 members in some capacity. The WAC gets back Nevada, Hawaii, UNLV, and Air Force to get to 11 in football and 10 in all sports. Air Force and Navy eventually join the Big East for football only in 2015.

1. do you have AF going to two different conferences here?

2. air force, CSU, & wyoming are quietly a very strong trio and it is damn near impossible for them to be broken up unless the b12 or pac12 come calling. everyone seems to overlook this and seeing so many people do so is one of my biggest pet peeves.

The only way this scenerio works is Syracuse and Pittsburgh need to have already announced they are already leaving to the ACC. Because Missouri did not announce the were leaving the big 12 until after Pitt and Syracuse announced.

After all those announcements, it is reasonable to say at that point, the big 12 could have announced it was taking WV and TCU in 2012 and Louisville and Cincy in 2013.

at that point the big east football is down to UConn, USF and Rutgers. The big east can still backfill but the whole thing could fall apart when the big ten takes Rutgers and MD while ND joins the ACC for non-football. At that point, the ACC takes UConn to replace MD.

so at that point, the big east is down to one active football team, USF. With plans to backfill with Temple in 2012 and a bunch of teams in 2013. Odds are these teams will still move to the big east in 2013 but Boise and SDSU never temporarily left the MWC and Navy never joins. The C7 still split. The big east football conference still transforms into the AAC with roughly the same teams except without Navy, the AAC stays at 10 teams and does not add Tulsa.

The Big East would have done the same with the C7 keeping the name. The interesting part is with WVU, UL, UC going into the Big 12 together and say the offer for Clemson and FSU was accepted. Whom of the left over schools would the ACC have taken ? UConn, Rutgers ? USF ?, TCU ? THE AAC wouldn't exist and CUSA probably grabbed the remaining Big East football schools left.
I think the ACC stays together in this situation.

(03-19-2014 03:10 AM)goofus Wrote:  The only way this scenerio works is Syracuse and Pittsburgh need to have already announced they are already leaving to the ACC. Because Missouri did not announce the were leaving the big 12 until after Pitt and Syracuse announced.

After all those announcements, it is reasonable to say at that point, the big 12 could have announced it was taking WV and TCU in 2012 and Louisville and Cincy in 2013.

at that point the big east football is down to UConn, USF and Rutgers. The big east can still backfill but the whole thing could fall apart when the big ten takes Rutgers and MD while ND joins the ACC for non-football. At that point, the ACC takes UConn to replace MD.

so at that point, the big east is down to one active football team, USF. With plans to backfill with Temple in 2012 and a bunch of teams in 2013. Odds are these teams will still move to the big east in 2013 but Boise and SDSU never temporarily left the MWC and Navy never joins. The C7 still split. The big east football conference still transforms into the AAC with roughly the same teams except without Navy, the AAC stays at 10 teams and does not add Tulsa.

Aren't there NCAA rules which would come into play once a league drops below a certain number of members? If you took five schools out of an eight team Big East, I'm not sure the league technically exists anymore. At that point, if the B1G still wants to come east, they could just pick up Rutgers and UConn at bargain basement prices because those schools have zero leverage. Maybe you decide you don't need the legal hassle that prying Maryland from the ACC is sure to become.

At the same time, the B1G might not be thrilled about the Big 12 moving into its backyard, and perhaps they retaliate by plucking Kansas and Missouri, reuniting them with Nebraska. Perhaps in that scenario, the SEC goes to plan B and takes Oklahoma to team with TAMU instead of the Tigers.

Well it's all speculation, but back to the OP, Pitt and Syracuse announced their intent to leave before WVU and TCU.

The Big East's 2013 football lineup as of October 2011 in this scenario is Rutgers, UConn and USF (UL, UC, TCU and WVU are going to the Big 12, Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC). The C7 is still at 8 since Notre Dame hasn't left the Big East yet.

It isn't clear if Maryland would leave the ACC, and the Rutgers invitation to the Big 10 was dependent on Maryland coming in as well. Also since Notre Dame isn't off the table yet the Big 10 could still wait to see what happens to ND.

Who are you going to backfill into the Big East? There's only 3 votes from the football side of the equation at this point (all of the defecting schools lost their vote when they announced they were leaving, and TCU never got a vote). The original announcement was Houston, UCF, SMU, Boise, SDSU. Is this conference viable and can RU (who may not have been voting at that time because we didn't have a school president in place) - UConn - USF get enough votes for Houston, UCF and SMU to get invited for full membership or does the Big East stop sponsoring football (a la the WAC) and don't expand?

That's also a possibility. So RU -- UConn -- USF go the independent route, and only get local television coverage in their markets (RU and UConn get an SNY contract for example) -- or RU and UConn join the MAC for football and USF joins C-USA for football. Anything could have happened.

Let's assume that the Big East can expand with Houston, UCF and SMU. There's only 6 schools. You still need Navy and one other. Would SDSU and Boise still accept a football only invite? The TV contract with these 6 schools just won't be good, and that was Boise's major incentive to come East. Or are the only candidates available become Idaho and New Mexico State (the WAC disbanding still happens and they would take any home they could find).

Anyhow, my point really is that when you look at alternative histories anything could happen. The Catholic 7 left after Notre Dame, Rutgers and Louisville left and the basketball was watered down by adding Tulane and trying to get ECU in for a full invite. Assume Memphis hasn't been invited. What's the value of the TV contrfact for hoops in this configuration:

Providence -- UConn -- St. John's -- Seton Hall -- Rutgers -- Villanova
Georgetown -- UCF -- USF -- Houston -- SMU -- Marquette -- DePaul

There's 12 teams for basketball. Memphis would make sense to add but there's no desire for 13 teams for hoops. You can't really break this configuration up into divisions all that easily. I was trying for North/South but you don't have the geography in the conference to make that work. The basketball is stronger if you invite Memphis instead of UCF, but football is far better with UCF instead of Memphis. Temple might accept a football only invite, so the football conference looks like this:

UConn -- Rutgers -- Temple -- Navy -- USF -- UCF -- Houston -- SMU.

Still not a lot of value for a TV contract, so Boise and San Diego State don't come east. No NC caliber teams here, so the BCS AQ label goes away, or if the playoff happens, there's no auto bid.

The valuation of the basketball contract becomes the key to what happens to the Big East. Here's the configuration with NO EXPANSION and UConn -- USF -- RU go down the independent route for football:

Providence -- UConn -- St. John's -- Seton Hall -- Rutgers -- Villanova -- Georgetown -- USF -- Marquette -- DePaul -- Notre Dame.

11 team conference if Notre Dame stays, 10 team conference if the Irish go to the ACC.

Maryland stays in the ACC so there's no Big 10 invite for Rutgers.

Basketball still gets the deal from Fox Sports.

there are no football options other than independence or the MAC for Rutgers, UConn and USF. Fox Sports gives a fairly generous contract for football TV coverage for those 3 schools to keep the basketball property.

That's a wonderful scenario, isn't it?

That's a good point I forgot about. If TCU, WV, Louisville, Cincy go to the big 12 and Syracuse, Pitt, ND, Uconn to ACC, and Rutgers, MD to Big ten.

then at point, the only active football school left in the big east is USF. So the basketball schools then could just vote to dissolve the conference. USF takes the hint and voluntarily leaves for C-USA with all exit fees waved.

But we don't know if RU and UConn have any place to go in that scenario. With 3 schools left playing football, it's a little harder, though still easy for the Big East to just stop sponsoring football.

If ND doens't get the ACC invite, they stay with the Catholic 7. Even if they do get the invite, Rutgers only goes to the Big 10 as school number 14 -- someone else had to be #13. Maryland stays in the ACC, UConn has no place to go. Does ND leave the big east because of the academic quality of the schools invited (which other than SMU isn't particularly great, and certainly isn't up to the par of Pitt or even Syracuse)? Or does it leave anyway?

Again, this is all just an alternative to what actually happened.

(03-18-2014 09:56 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  Big 12 North would have been down right nasty in hoops this year - Kansas, Louisville, Iowa State, Cincinnati, K-State.

South would be tough as well with 4 tournament teams.

(03-19-2014 10:05 AM)megadrone Wrote:  Well it's all speculation, but back to the OP, Pitt and Syracuse announced their intent to leave before WVU and TCU.

Agreed on this point. As for the rest, I think that . . .

ND would not want to stay with the C-7 because of the FB scheduling and bowl issue. They would work on the ACC invite, and it would come as it did in reality. BE would be down to C-7, RU, UConn, USF.

BIG response would still be to take Maryland and Rutgers. No change here. BE would be C-7, UConn, USF.

ACC has a decision. Down to 11 in FB and UofL is gone. USF and ECU are not popular choices. Memphis is available but also not a likely candidate. If not UConn, then who else is left? Temple? Tulane? I think cooler heads prevail and UConn gets in, but not without a lot of hand-wringing. ACC is the same except for UConn for UofL. Same contract as now. Same bowl arrangements. Same lawsuit against Maryland. ACC wins the first post-apocalyptic ACC-BIG challenge with a UConn victory over Rutgers. BE would then be C-7 and USF.

BE declines to add any new FB members, so USF either goes back to CUSA or stays in BE with FB only in MAC or FB indy. USF decides to leave for CUSA and CUSA considers Temple, UMass, Army and Navy as well. C-7 give USF a chunk of the NCAA units and exit fees to USF as an incentive to exit, keeping the rest for themselves. The BE is not a BCS conference for 2013.

Because C-7 are in still in the BE and not leaving the conference, Fox/FS1 offer can be reviewed and matched by ESPN. When C-7 left originally, the Fox/FS1 offer was done is secret and ESPN was not allowed to match because the C-7 were not a continuation of the BE. Since they are in the BE and not on their own, ESPN has to decide if they can match the $$$ and exposure offered by Fox/FS1. ESPN decides to match $$$ and exposure, but does so jointly with Fox/FS1 instead of going it alone. BE (C-7) keeps Big Monday on ESPN, MSG and all BET games on ESPN. Butler, Xavier and Creighton are all still invited to get to 10.

Because UConn, RU and USF would have one lame duck year in 2013 where there is nobody else playing FB in the BE, the BE, BIG, CUSA and ACC work to move everyone early so there is no 6th BCS conference.

BIG XII takes WVU and TCU early, and goes to divisions for FB for 2013. Championship game in Jerry's World annually. ESPN/Fox pony up to keep Texas and the rest whole monetarily after the 3 new schools enter. Additional bowls are needed as they are at 12.

BIG has RU and Maryland one year earlier. It is a pain, as schedules are made way in advance, but it gets done.

MAC considers ultimatum for Temple and UMass to be all in or all out.

Had the Big 12 landed Cincinnati, Louisville, and West Virginia then I don't think T.C.U. would have been in the mix. I believe that B.Y.U. would have made concessions and joined to make the Big 12 fourteen and miss their logo total again. Then there would have been no speculation to speak of about this conference. We would have a solid P5 with solid enough schools all around to be stable.

I still think the Big 10 would have taken Rutgers and possibly Connecticut to move to 14. I still think Notre Dame would have landed a deal with the ACC, or possibly even with the Big 12 had the ACC with the keeping of Maryland never been made to feel insecure enough to offer the deal in the first place.

The SEC would be done at 14. The Big 10 would be done at 14. The ACC would be done at 14 (maybe with N.D. as a partial), The Big 12 would be done at 14 (maybe with N.D. as a partial), and The PAC would stand pat at 12. 69 schools would be included in the P5 and realignment at the top would be through between P5 conferences. Maybe each conference eventually grows to 16 with G5 schools who are elevating their athletics and academics, or maybe not.

But they didn't do that. Now the Big 12 can't find two candidates that pay for themselves and add to everyone else's revenue. And as long as the Big 12 stays at 10 speculation and rumors will continue.

(03-19-2014 02:18 PM)MUAvalanche Wrote:  MAC considers ultimatum for Temple and UMass to be all in or all out.

The ultimatum is a clause in the UMass agreement in the event that Temple leaves ... also if Temple FB stay in the MAC, there's nothing to consider, two FB affiliates in two large East Coast markets was what the MAC was aiming at.

I think Hawaii was going to be in the Big West regardless of the OP's scenario.

(03-19-2014 08:00 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  The Big East would have done the same with the C7 keeping the name. The interesting part is with WVU, UL, UC going into the Big 12 together and say the offer for Clemson and FSU was accepted. Whom of the left over schools would the ACC have taken ? UConn, Rutgers ? USF ?, TCU ? THE AAC wouldn't exist and CUSA probably grabbed the remaining Big East football schools left.
I think the ACC stays together in this situation.

Maybe. I thought the BE wasn't truly a complete goner until I saw the bit about the deal to get Boise and SDSU required 70% of TV to be allocated to football instead of 33% as the old deal provided. I never believed the hoop schools would sign off on that deal and they ended up getting more than they would have if the Boise Big East TV projections had been accurate.