the strength of our league will be defined by how we do in OOC, so I decided to make a thread with a look into those games
I have everyone's OOC listed and divided them into 4 categories (also incorporating how good everyone is projected to be)


Easily win= EW (win or shame us)
Should win but wont be easy= SW (tough be very winnable)
Upset win= UW (likely favored to lose but win is possible)
Miracle win = MW (unrealistic chance of winning)

Cincy
EW= Miami (OH) SW= Toledo UW= Miami (FL) MW= Ohio State
note: the ohio state game will be interesting and it wont just be about who wins but what was the score, which on paper could get out of hand in a bad way, and even though i put Toledo in the SW category, losing to them would definitely hurt our leagues perception

UConn
EW= None SW= stony brook, army UW= Boise, BYU
note: stony/army should be easy wins if uconn even fields a decent team but we dont really know what we are getting from uconn yet, and losing to 2 fcs 2 years in a row will be shameful

ECU
EW=NC central SW= none UW= UNC, VT MW= SC
note: with everyone in the league and how good they are projected, how big the brands of their opponents are, and likelihood of beating them, ECU has the best chance at making a splash for this league before conference play

Houston
EW= tenn tech, grambling SW= UTSA UW= BYU
note: you could argue utsa in the EW but they were decent last year and return the most starters in the nation and could argue byu in the SW

Memphis
EW=Austin Peay SW= MTSU UW= none MW=Ole Miss, UCLA
note: some would have mtsu in the UW, but i have faith in memphis improving and ole miss isn't the greatest but i don't have that much faith in memphis

SMU
EW= none SW=UNT, UW= TCU MW=A&M, Baylor
note: hardest ooc in the nation IMO, unt might actually be even favored for the game, but i think smu should handle a rebuilding UNT

Temple
EW= Delaware St SW= None UW= Penn State, Vandy, Navy
note: i know some of you would argue temple beating vandy or psu would be a miracle but i believe in temple from what i saw from them last season and improving that they have a legitimate shot at them

Tulane
EW= SLU SW=none UW= GT, Rutgers, Duke
note: if tulane improves from last season all 3 UW are easily winnable (maybe not duke but who knows) also SLU was a great fcs team (ranked #6)

Tulsa
EW= none SW= Texas state, FAU, CSU UW= none MW= Oklahoma
note: i choose to believe last year was the once in a blue moon year for tulsa and they they are atleast capable of beating fau, a rebuilding csu, and txst (in all honestly all 3 should probably be in the UW category)

UCF
EW= bethune cookman SW= none UW= mizzou byu & psu
note: all depends on the new qb even bethune cookman is a ranked fcs and a former rivalry game that could end up disastrous if the new talent doesn't live up to the hype

USF
EW= WCU SW=none UW=NC State, MD MW= Wisconsin
note: nc state and MD are definitely winnable but not with the team they put out last season.

i think we could potentially handle business but i also thought that last year and we did horrible (the only 2 decent ooc wins were psu and rice) and were losing to fcs like crazy in the bottom half of the league

no fcs losses is all i ask and a couple decent upsets,

In two of Temple's opponents, PSU and Vandy, both have new coaches and presumeably new systems as a result. It is those early in the year ooc games that new coaches/systems sometimes lose focus and wind up losing. In the case of UCF playing PSU, that game is in Ireland making it evn more of a duanting task for PSU. Also in UCF's favor is that Missouri loses as much as anyone from graduation. Fianlly, USF has to eventually step up in performance with the recent very good recruiting classes they have had. Is this the year?

I think there should be another category for a push. I think that at home it could go either way at home against UNC (ECU has a lot returning and beat them on the road by 24 last year).

I would almost put VT as a push as well because we have a senior super star QB and they'll be breaking in a new one and it's an early season game (we also always play them close).

I could say the same thing about SC but they are a top level SEC team and we are certainly the underdogs in Columbia. That being said, I think we have a legit shot for the upset because they've lost Clowney and their QB Shaw and even though this stat dips back into the 90s, ECU has actually taken 4 of the last 6 in Columbia and 5 of the last 9 overall.

I really can see us making a big splash in the OOC and then having several let downs during the conference schedule (classic ECU).

I don't think any win qualifies as a miracle next year for ECU

(03-18-2014 10:04 AM)NBPirate Wrote:  I don't think any win qualifies as a miracle next year for ECU

you realize SC has been a consecutive top 10 team for like 5 years now?

everyone not an ECU fan, who for some reason think you're better than the seahawks, would easily put that game in that category

(03-18-2014 10:17 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(03-18-2014 10:04 AM)NBPirate Wrote:  I don't think any win qualifies as a miracle next year for ECU

you realize SC has been a consecutive top 10 team for like 5 years now?

everyone not an ECU fan, who for some reason think you're better than the seahawks, would easily put that game in that category

Yes ECU fans are sometimes a bit delusional but miracle is a strong word. Was it a miracle when you guys beat #5 OSU in '09? Was it a Miracle when ECU destroyed #8 WVU and beat #15 VT in '08. Was it a miracle when ECU beat a Russell Wilson led #25 NCSU team in '10. These types of things happen every few years. We have a long history of big time upsets and simply playing the nation's elite very close.

I think ECU should expect to win against a UNC team that we demolished just last year on the road. Losing a starting QB in a QB driven game is a big deal so it's not really a stretch to think that ECU can make some noise early in the season against SC and VT because they'll be breaking in new signal callers.

You repeatedly say that ECU fans are high on themselves but have you ever thought that you might just be underselling our potential. We have a history of beating top programs and then faltering in conference. We often play to the level of competition (see C-USA 1.0 & even C-USA 2.0 to a certain degree).

I think you should give our conference more credit as a whole and stop putting these P5 schools on a pedestal. At ECU we usually play high quality P5 schools in our OOC and we expect to win 1 or 2 out of 3 against them. That's how it's always been and how it's gonna be in the future.

I'm willing to come on this board and admit that I was wrong if we fall on our face. Will you offer ECU fans a public apology if we come out on fire?

I'd have to say, regardless of our team performance last year besides the BCS win...We are all in good positions to win the games that counts. Again and again, I will say that all of our QBs (Except Tulsa, eff you) and Tulane (love you, hopefully Montana leads you to the promise land) are well acquainted to the game and we should, for the most part be a VERY competitive conference next year.

For you soccer fans, it'll be like the Barclays Premier League...A lot of teams are able to win, but you got to wait til the end of the year to find it out.

(03-18-2014 10:38 AM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  

(03-18-2014 10:17 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(03-18-2014 10:04 AM)NBPirate Wrote:  I don't think any win qualifies as a miracle next year for ECU

you realize SC has been a consecutive top 10 team for like 5 years now?

everyone not an ECU fan, who for some reason think you're better than the seahawks, would easily put that game in that category

Yes ECU fans are sometimes a bit delusional but miracle is a strong word. Was it a miracle when you guys beat #5 OSU in '09? Was it a Miracle when ECU destroyed #8 WVU and beat #15 VT in '08. Was it a miracle when ECU beat a Russell Wilson led #25 NCSU team in '10. These types of things happen every few years. We have a long history of big time upsets and simply playing the nation's elite very close.

I think ECU should expect to win against a UNC team that we demolished just last year on the road. Losing a starting QB in a QB driven game is a big deal so it's not really a stretch to think that ECU can make some noise early in the season against SC and VT because they'll be breaking in new signal callers.

You repeatedly say that ECU fans are high on themselves but have you ever thought that you might just be underselling our potential. We have a history of beating top programs and then faltering in conference. We often play to the level of competition (see C-USA 1.0 & even C-USA 2.0 to a certain degree).

I think you should give our conference more credit as a whole and stop putting these P5 schools on a pedestal. At ECU we usually play high quality P5 schools in our OOC and we expect to win 1 or 2 out of 3 against them. That's how it's always been and how it's gonna be in the future.

I'm willing to come on this board and admit that I was wrong if we fall on our face. Will you offer ECU fans a public apology if we come out on fire?

"going into" the season i would have put houston vs #5 okst as a miracle win. i am not saying it cant happen but that from projections of how both teams are projected to be not a single person will have money on ECU. again i have it in the "unrealistic" chance i didnt say it was impossible.

and im not putting p5 on a pedestal but putting a consecutive top 10-ish team on pedestal in SC. and SC and VT werent qb driven teams by any definition. VT didn't beat you on offense, as a matter of fact VT might be better off with a new qb. SC is also a defensive run first team, they beat the best ever UCF team with connor shaw not playing because of injury. they return more starters than ECU and recruiting class isn't even comparable. SC's likely QB starter is a heavily experience senior, who was openly spoke of as a dramatically better passer than shaw (but didn't have the run ability)

think of it this way, im not saying it's impossible but if ecu beat unc and vt= wow ecu has a good team this year. ecu beats sc= shocks the world. it will be considered an astronomical upset because no one will expect that

(03-18-2014 08:53 AM)pesik Wrote:  the strength of our league will be defined by how we do in OOC, so I decided to make a thread with a look into those games
I have everyone's OOC listed and divided them into 4 categories (also incorporating how good everyone is projected to be)


Easily win= EW (win or shame us)
Should win but wont be easy= SW (tough be very winnable)
Upset win= UW (likely favored to lose but win is possible)
Miracle win = MW (unrealistic chance of winning)

Cincy
EW= Miami (OH) SW= Toledo UW= Miami (FL) MW= Ohio State
note: the ohio state game will be interesting and it wont just be about who wins but what was the score, which on paper could get out of hand in a bad way, and even though i put Toledo in the SW category, losing to them would definitely hurt our leagues perception

UConn
EW= None SW= stony brook, army UW= Boise, BYU
note: stony/army should be easy wins if uconn even fields a decent team but we dont really know what we are getting from uconn yet, and losing to 2 fcs 2 years in a row will be shameful

ECU
EW=NC central SW= none UW= UNC, VT MW= SC
note: with everyone in the league and how good they are projected, how big the brands of their opponents are, and likelihood of beating them, ECU has the best chance at making a splash for this league before conference play

Houston
EW= tenn tech, grambling SW= UTSA UW= BYU
note: you could argue utsa in the EW but they were decent last year and return the most starters in the nation and could argue byu in the SW

Memphis
EW=Austin Peay SW= MTSU UW= none MW=Ole Miss, UCLA
note: some would have mtsu in the UW, but i have faith in memphis improving and ole miss isn't the greatest but i don't have that much faith in memphis

SMU
EW= none SW=UNT, UW= TCU MW=A&M, Baylor
note: hardest ooc in the nation IMO, unt might actually be even favored for the game, but i think smu should handle a rebuilding UNT

Temple
EW= Delaware St SW= None UW= Penn State, Vandy, Navy
note: i know some of you would argue temple beating vandy or psu would be a miracle but i believe in temple from what i saw from them last season and improving that they have a legitimate shot at them

Tulane
EW= SLU SW=none UW= GT, Rutgers, Duke
note: if tulane improves from last season all 3 UW are easily winnable (maybe not duke but who knows) also SLU was a great fcs team (ranked #6)

Tulsa
EW= none SW= Texas state, FAU, CSU UW= none MW= Oklahoma
note: i choose to believe last year was the once in a blue moon year for tulsa and they they are atleast capable of beating fau, a rebuilding csu, and txst (in all honestly all 3 should probably be in the UW category)

UCF
EW= bethune cookman SW= none UW= mizzou byu & psu
note: all depends on the new qb even bethune cookman is a ranked fcs and a former rivalry game that could end up disastrous if the new talent doesn't live up to the hype

USF
EW= WCU SW=none UW=NC State, MD MW= Wisconsin
note: nc state and MD are definitely winnable but not with the team they put out last season.

i think we could potentially handle business but i also thought that last year and we did horrible (the only 2 decent ooc wins were psu and rice) and were losing to fcs like crazy in the bottom half of the league

no fcs losses is all i ask and a couple decent upsets,

Well, written.

Not having any dogs in the fight, I think this is very fair and realistic analysis. I agree with the USF/NCSU game. State had no QB last year. There is optimistic hopes on Brissett but until he plays, NCSU QB will be a BIG question mark again this season. Doreen basically used the entire last year for the team to play and learn his offense for those returning this year. So Pack fans have no idea of what to expect this season. As much as it pains me to say, I do think going into the season ECU is the top team in NC with Duke just right behind. I still am not sold on ECU's defense and that might be what causes them a special season.

(03-18-2014 08:53 AM)pesik Wrote:  the strength of our league will be defined by how we do in OOC, so I decided to make a thread with a look into those games
I have everyone's OOC listed and divided them into 4 categories (also incorporating how good everyone is projected to be)


Easily win= EW (win or shame us)
Should win but wont be easy= SW (tough be very winnable)
Upset win= UW (likely favored to lose but win is possible)
Miracle win = MW (unrealistic chance of winning)

Cincy
EW= Miami (OH) SW= Toledo UW= Miami (FL) MW= Ohio State
note: the ohio state game will be interesting and it wont just be about who wins but what was the score, which on paper could get out of hand in a bad way, and even though i put Toledo in the SW category, losing to them would definitely hurt our leagues perception

UConn
EW= None SW= stony brook, army UW= Boise, BYU
note: stony/army should be easy wins if uconn even fields a decent team but we dont really know what we are getting from uconn yet, and losing to 2 fcs 2 years in a row will be shameful

ECU
EW=NC central SW= none UW= UNC, VT MW= SC
note: with everyone in the league and how good they are projected, how big the brands of their opponents are, and likelihood of beating them, ECU has the best chance at making a splash for this league before conference play

Houston
EW= tenn tech, grambling SW= UTSA UW= BYU
note: you could argue utsa in the EW but they were decent last year and return the most starters in the nation and could argue byu in the SW

Memphis
EW=Austin Peay SW= MTSU UW= none MW=Ole Miss, UCLA
note: some would have mtsu in the UW, but i have faith in memphis improving and ole miss isn't the greatest but i don't have that much faith in memphis

SMU
EW= none SW=UNT, UW= TCU MW=A&M, Baylor
note: hardest ooc in the nation IMO, unt might actually be even favored for the game, but i think smu should handle a rebuilding UNT

Temple
EW= Delaware St SW= None UW= Penn State, Vandy, Navy
note: i know some of you would argue temple beating vandy or psu would be a miracle but i believe in temple from what i saw from them last season and improving that they have a legitimate shot at them

Tulane
EW= SLU SW=none UW= GT, Rutgers, Duke
note: if tulane improves from last season all 3 UW are easily winnable (maybe not duke but who knows) also SLU was a great fcs team (ranked #6)

Tulsa
EW= none SW= Texas state, FAU, CSU UW= none MW= Oklahoma
note: i choose to believe last year was the once in a blue moon year for tulsa and they they are atleast capable of beating fau, a rebuilding csu, and txst (in all honestly all 3 should probably be in the UW category)

UCF
EW= bethune cookman SW= none UW= mizzou byu & psu
note: all depends on the new qb even bethune cookman is a ranked fcs and a former rivalry game that could end up disastrous if the new talent doesn't live up to the hype

USF
EW= WCU SW=none UW=NC State, MD MW= Wisconsin
note: nc state and MD are definitely winnable but not with the team they put out last season.

i think we could potentially handle business but i also thought that last year and we did horrible (the only 2 decent ooc wins were psu and rice) and were losing to fcs like crazy in the bottom half of the league

no fcs losses is all i ask and a couple decent upsets,

A minor quarrel on your comment about losing to Toledo on Cincinnati's OOC: Toledo is probably better on paper than everyone in the AAC aside from Cincinnati, UCF, ECU and Houston for 2014. In the past few years they have beaten OOC Michigan, Colorado, Illinois and Air Force.

In regards to every one of these games, the league will continued to be looked down upon win or lose. If teams in this league do win these games, they will be discounted to the fact that the P5 school had a bad day/lack of motivation, bad officating, etc. Even if the conference receives kudos, it will be short lived and forgotten in short order.

(03-18-2014 12:44 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  A minor quarrel on your comment about losing to Toledo on Cincinnati's OOC: Toledo is probably better on paper than everyone in the AAC aside from Cincinnati, UCF, ECU and Houston for 2014. In the past few years they have beaten OOC Michigan, Colorado, Illinois and Air Force.

In regards to every one of these games, the league will continued to be looked down upon win or lose. If teams in this league do win these games, they will be discounted to the fact that the P5 school had a bad day/lack of motivation, bad officating, etc. Even if the conference receives kudos, it will be short lived and forgotten in short order.

toledo was a 7-5 mac team that loses its starting qb and starting RB and finished the season losing to a 5-7 akron

tulsa and "maybe" uconn & smu are the only 3 teams id favor toledo over in the aac next year.

and i completely disagree with your statement, if as a collective we handle business in ooc we'll definitely be given our due in respect to being a G5 conferencem almost p5 in quality of teams and it will only be short lived if flop the following year. ucf has started the positive inflow for the league and something we can build on and keep building on

17 games where a loss would be damaging to AAC's football-image:

Cincinnati: Miami/OH, Toledo
UConn: Stony Brook (FCS), Army
East Carolina: N.C. Central (FCS)
Houston: Tennessee Tech (FCS), Grambling (FCS), UTSA
Memphis: Austin Peay
Temple: Delaware State (FCS)
Tulane: Southeastern Louisiana (FCS)
Tulsa: Texas State, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State
UCF: Bethune-Cookman (FCS)
South Florida: Western Carolina (FCS)
SMU: North Texas

27 games where a win would be helpful to AAC's football-image:

Cincinnati: Miami (FL), Ohio State
UConn: Boise, BYU
ECU: North Carolina, Va. Tech, South Carolina
Houston: BYU
Memphis: MTSU, UCLA, Ole Miss
SMU: TCU, Texas A&M, Baylor
Temple: Penn State, Vandy, Navy
Tulane: Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Duke
Tulsa: Oklahoma
UCF: Missouri, BYU, Penn State
South Florida: NC State, Maryland, Wisconsin

Realistic hope: Win the 17 games in the first group, and win 1/3 of the games in the second group. Overall record against OOC opponents: 26-18

(03-18-2014 01:06 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  17 games where a loss would be damaging to AAC's football-image:

Cincinnati: Miami/OH, Toledo
UConn: Stony Brook (FCS), Army
East Carolina: N.C. Central (FCS)
Houston: Tennessee Tech (FCS), Grambling (FCS), UTSA
Memphis: Austin Peay
Temple: Delaware State (FCS)
Tulane: Southeastern Louisiana (FCS)
Tulsa: Texas State, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State
UCF: Bethune-Cookman (FCS)
South Florida: Western Carolina (FCS)
SMU: @North Texas

27 games where a win would be helpful to AAC's football-image:

Cincinnati: Miami (FL), Ohio State W, L
UConn: Boise, BYU L, L
ECU: North Carolina, Va. Tech, South Carolina W, W, L
Houston: @BYU W
Memphis: MTSU, UCLA, Ole Miss W, L, L
SMU: TCU, Texas A&M, Baylor L, L, L
Temple: Penn State, Vandy, Navy L, L, W
Tulane: Georgia Tech, @Rutgers, @Duke L, W, L
Tulsa: Oklahoma L
UCF: Missouri, BYU, Penn State W, W, L
South Florida: NC State, Maryland, Wisconsin W, L, L

Realistic hope: Win the 17 games in the first group, and win 1/3 of the games in the second group. Overall record against OOC opponents: 26-18

I just hope nobody loses to an FCS squad this year. As for UCF's OOC schedule

Penn State - they lost their coach, we lost our QB, game is on a neutral field. UCF -3
@Missouri - defending SEC East champ and Cotton Bowl champ, but lost several starters. Missouri -10
Bethune Cookman - old rival from our D1AA days, but even with a new QB this should be an easy win. UCF -24
BYU - good team, but not intimidating outside the 6th fan vote contest and we've got them at home. UCF -10

Teams who have best chance to make conference look Good, Bad and Ugly.

This is based on possible losses. Not based on team potential or rankings. (Ranked by OOC strength of schedule) P5 opponents are not a bad loss.
All FCS are bad losses, and Most G5 (Excluding Navy, Boise, BYU)

The Good (only one potential bad loss on each schedule)

1.SMU-plays 3 P5 teams and 1 G5.
2.East Carolina- 3 P5 and 1 FCS.
3.USF- 3 P5, 1 FCS
4.Tulane- 3 P5, 1 fCS
5.Temple- 2 P5, 1G5(navy), 1FCS
6.UCF- 2 P5, 1G5(BYU), 1FCS

The Bad (2 potential bad loses on schedule)
7. Cincy- 2 P5, 2 G5(Toledo, Miami OH)
8.Memphis- 2 P5, 1G5(MTSU instate rivalry good luck), 1 FCS
9.Uconn- 3 G5(BYU, Boise st), 1 FCS

The Ugly (3 potential bad loses)
10. Tulsa- 1 P5, 3 G5(FAU, Texas State, Colo State)

**** Son
11. Houston- 2 FCS, 2G5 (BYU)

(03-18-2014 01:06 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  17 games where a loss would be damaging to AAC's football-image:

Cincinnati: Miami/OH, Toledo
UConn: Stony Brook (FCS), Army
East Carolina: N.C. Central (FCS)
Houston: Tennessee Tech (FCS), Grambling (FCS), UTSA
Memphis: Austin Peay
Temple: Delaware State (FCS)
Tulane: Southeastern Louisiana (FCS)
Tulsa: Texas State, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State
UCF: Bethune-Cookman (FCS)
South Florida: Western Carolina (FCS)
SMU: North Texas

27 games where a win would be helpful to AAC's football-image:

Cincinnati: Miami (FL), Ohio State
UConn: Boise, BYU
ECU: North Carolina, Va. Tech, South Carolina
Houston: BYU
Memphis: MTSU, UCLA, Ole Miss
SMU: TCU, Texas A&M, Baylor
Temple: Penn State, Vandy, Navy
Tulane: Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Duke
Tulsa: Oklahoma
UCF: Missouri, BYU, Penn State
South Florida: NC State, Maryland, Wisconsin

Realistic hope: Win the 17 games in the first group, and win 1/3 of the games in the second group. Overall record against OOC opponents: 26-18

What he said.

(03-18-2014 01:31 PM)MechaKnight Wrote:  I just hope nobody loses to an FCS squad this year. As for UCF's OOC schedule

Penn State - they lost their coach, we lost our QB, game is on a neutral field. UCF -3
@Missouri - defending SEC East champ and Cotton Bowl champ, but lost several starters. Missouri -10
Bethune Cookman - old rival from our D1AA days, but even with a new QB this should be an easy win. UCF -24
BYU - good team, but not intimidating outside the 6th fan vote contest and we've got them at home. UCF -10

Remembering the loss at BHS, Missouri goes down.

(03-18-2014 01:06 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  17 games where a loss would be damaging to AAC's football-image:

Cincinnati: Miami/OH, Toledo
UConn: Stony Brook (FCS), Army
East Carolina: N.C. Central (FCS)
Houston: Tennessee Tech (FCS), Grambling (FCS), UTSA
Memphis: Austin Peay
Temple: Delaware State (FCS)
Tulane: Southeastern Louisiana (FCS)
Tulsa: Texas State, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State
UCF: Bethune-Cookman (FCS)
South Florida: Western Carolina (FCS)
SMU: North Texas

27 games where a win would be helpful to AAC's football-image:

Cincinnati: Miami (FL), Ohio State
UConn: Boise, BYU
ECU: North Carolina, Va. Tech, South Carolina
Houston: BYU
Memphis: MTSU, UCLA, Ole Miss
SMU: TCU, Texas A&M, Baylor
Temple: Penn State, Vandy, Navy
Tulane: Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Duke
Tulsa: Oklahoma
UCF: Missouri, BYU, Penn State
South Florida: NC State, Maryland, Wisconsin

Realistic hope: Win the 17 games in the first group, and win 1/3 of the games in the second group. Overall record against OOC opponents: 26-18

typo?