Interesting that Louisville has a higher probability than 1 seeds:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/...edictions/

For my man Stammers:

'The model, which is in its fourth year, is principally based on a composite of five computer power ratings:

■Ken Pomeroy’s ratings
■Jeff Sagarin’s “predictor” ratings
■Sonny Moore’s ratings
■Joel Sokol’s LRMC ratings
■ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, a new addition this year
Each of these ratings has a strong track record in picking tournament games. We shouldn’t make too much of the differences among them: They are all based on the same basic information (wins and losses, strength of schedule, margin of victory) computed in slightly different ways (for example, the Moore ratings place a lot of emphasis on recent performance whereas the other systems do not). However, the reason to use five systems instead of one is because even small differences can compound over the course of a tournament that requires six or seven games to win. For instance, a team that is an 80 percent favorite to win each of its games has a 26 percent chance of going on a six-game winning streak, whereas one with a 70 percent chance has only a 12 percent chance of doing so. Each system has different features and bugs, and blending them helps to smooth out any rough edges."

and

"RPI is the Dick Morris of algorithms. Maybe I should challenge it to a bet."

Most people already knew this, though. Just reaffirming to hear a real stat guy (with a track record of success) state it.

I ran the following 7 times for us against both Gw and Va and we won 5 out of 7.

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

Louisville got a great draw. Probably better to be the 4 in that region than the 1.

I'm still not sold on KY auto-advancing past Kansas St. Kentucky hasn't really beaten anyone of Kansas St's caliber on a neutral / away floor all year, except for possibly Providence. I'm not sure why most people are looking beyond Kansas St in that one.

Each time I look at the brackets, I still think we ended up in just about the best possible spot. If we had to trade with anyone, it would be Louisville.

(03-17-2014 03:17 PM)tiger 72 Wrote:  I ran the following 7 times for us against both Gw and Va and we won 5 out of 7.

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

Ran it 10 times for each. Memphis won 8, GW won 2. UVA and the Tigers split 5 and 5.

(03-17-2014 03:30 PM)George CantStandYa Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:17 PM)tiger 72 Wrote:  I ran the following 7 times for us against both Gw and Va and we won 5 out of 7.

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

Ran it 10 times for each. Memphis won 8, GW won 2. UVA and the Tigers split 5 and 5.

I ran it 20 times for Memphis vs Virginia and Memphis won 11, UVA won 9. So the simulation see's it as around a 50/50 game

(03-17-2014 03:30 PM)George CantStandYa Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:17 PM)tiger 72 Wrote:  I ran the following 7 times for us against both Gw and Va and we won 5 out of 7.

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

Ran it 10 times for each. Memphis won 8, GW won 2. UVA and the Tigers split 5 and 5.

Memphis wins 110-108 in double overtime for me. Joe with 27 and Shaq with 26 but Nichols and Shaq both foul out. It's a little dumb because it has Crawford shooting 4 free throws.

(03-17-2014 03:56 PM)mairving Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:30 PM)George CantStandYa Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:17 PM)tiger 72 Wrote:  I ran the following 7 times for us against both Gw and Va and we won 5 out of 7.

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

Ran it 10 times for each. Memphis won 8, GW won 2. UVA and the Tigers split 5 and 5.

Memphis wins 110-108 in double overtime for me. Joe with 27 and Shaq with 26 but Nichols and Shaq both foul out. It's a little dumb because it has Crawford shooting 4 free throws.

Interesting that in Mem vs UV 20 times .......Virginia wins are close while Memphis wins are mainly 20 point blowout wins.

Had some time to kill, so ran the UVA-Mem match 100x. 52-48, Memphis. So according to that simulation, UVA better watch out!

The scores were frankly, all over the place. Some were nail biters both ways, sometimes we won big, sometimes they won big. The only consistent thing that popped out from that oracle, was that if Memphis is ahead at the half they generally win, and if the game goes to OT, they win the larger percentage of those.

(03-17-2014 04:01 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:56 PM)mairving Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:30 PM)George CantStandYa Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:17 PM)tiger 72 Wrote:  I ran the following 7 times for us against both Gw and Va and we won 5 out of 7.

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

Ran it 10 times for each. Memphis won 8, GW won 2. UVA and the Tigers split 5 and 5.

Memphis wins 110-108 in double overtime for me. Joe with 27 and Shaq with 26 but Nichols and Shaq both foul out. It's a little dumb because it has Crawford shooting 4 free throws.

Interesting that in Mem vs UV 20 times .......Virginia wins are close while Memphis wins are mainly 20 point blowout wins.

Pace/style.

UVA plays it slow. We are at our best quick.

(03-17-2014 03:56 PM)mairving Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:30 PM)George CantStandYa Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:17 PM)tiger 72 Wrote:  I ran the following 7 times for us against both Gw and Va and we won 5 out of 7.

http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

Ran it 10 times for each. Memphis won 8, GW won 2. UVA and the Tigers split 5 and 5.

Memphis wins 110-108 in double overtime for me. Joe with 27 and Shaq with 26 but Nichols and Shaq both foul out. It's a little dumb because it has Crawford shooting 4 free throws.

A little dumb is right

(03-17-2014 04:24 PM)NJ1 Wrote:  I just ran Memphis vs. GWU 15 times and Memphis lost 11 out of 15. Maybe I shouldn't even watch the game! haha.

What were you wearing? Maybe you should change and try it again.

(03-17-2014 04:34 PM)NJ1 Wrote:  good point. Will not watch the game in vintage Penn State sweater and pajama pants. Will change to tiger hoodie and slacks and report back.

I believe there are now pedophilia laws on the books that outlaw that attire.

Is this thing a random number generator or what ?

Looks like it generates Memphis as a 70% favorite.

Kentucky vs Kansas St has Kentucky as a 60% favorite.

Those look like reasonable odds. I'm going to run some others.

Just ran Arkansas and Kentucky and it was 11-9 in Arkansas' favor. Its a very limited data set, but it at least seems to be generating reasonable expectations.

For fun, I did Memphis '08 vs Kentucky '10. Memphis wins 8-2.

Memphis 08 vs Kentucky 12 was Memphis 7-3. Dang that 08 team was good.

I'm not even going to do Memphis 08 vs Kansas 08.

538 does a great job of consolidating many sources of polling data for coming up with good election predictions, although I don't think they do any primary research. I've got to think it's a lot harder to come up with accurate predictions for sporting events using the various ranking indices, especially when you have so many teams involved and a limited number of common opponents. Still, good info to look at and I trust 538's opinion more than I do the NCAA selection committee's.