So I have not watched Harvard enough to really make a great argument as to what the matchups will be. It's clear that's a pretty good team, but nothing really there to suggest they can beat UC if UC plays its best. I think if UC plays well they win the game...that simple.

However, while Michigan State is really good, I don't think they present a ton of matchup problems for UC. The reason is UC will have the ability to play small when it wants to. Sparty plays a lot of 4 guards (3 guards/ 1 G/F). UC has the versatility with their athletes to bother some of those guards. When Michigan State plays a couple of big guys, I like the idea of Titus on Payne. I think Titus was Born to guard that type of player. Payne could still get his own under that scenario, but I think he'd really have to work for it.

What scares me most about the matchup is that in the 4 guard sets Jackson is likely going to be spending significant time on Payne. Jackson is certainly a good enough defender for that to work, but I really fear his getting in foul trouble in that matchup. Of course, because Michigan State likes to play small, UC actually would have more flexibility in this game than a typical game where Jackson gets in foul trouble.

The other thing that scares me is that Gary Harris can get on a roll and hit difficult shots. The kind of shots where even with great defense there may be nothing else to do. Anyways, I think what makes MSU unique and tough is their quickness and versatility with the 4 guards + Payne and I think UC has a roster that actually matches up quite well with that style.

Thoughts?

The only matchup that matters is Harvard.

(03-17-2014 12:59 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Thoughts?

I really hope Delaware St. wins.


Seriously, though; good analysis, Mark. I think it'd be fitting for MSU to get upset in their first game considering everyone at ESPN last night picked them to win the whole thing.

Harvard obviously scares me. It all comes down to which UC shows up? The one that can score or the one that cant? You just have no clue what you are going to get from these guys. They have been hideous at the foul line the last number of games. I'd love to see Justin Jackson's FT% over his last 25 attempts. It has to be below 20%. I think UC matches up decently with Michigan State as well. One thing that worries me is how the officials call the game. Will they let the game be physical or not? West Coast officials arent exactly known for letting the guys "play".

(03-17-2014 01:13 PM)Marcus Wrote:  Harvard obviously scares me. It all comes down to which UC shows up? The one that can score or the one that cant? You just have no clue what you are going to get from these guys. They have been hideous at the foul line the last number of games. I'd love to see Justin Jackson's FT% over his last 25 attempts. It has to be below 20%. I think UC matches up decently with Michigan State as well. One thing that worries me is how the officials call the game. Will they let the game be physical or not? West Coast officials arent exactly known for letting the guys "play".

Maybe. I will say I have watched Arizona a number of times and they play very physical defense.

(03-17-2014 01:10 PM)BearcatBeta Wrote:  The only matchup that matters is Harvard.

To the players that is true, but to a fan. I get to talk the entire first weekend. I'll trust Mick to have them focused on a Harvard team that won in last year's tournament and played with UConn the entire game this year.

(03-17-2014 01:18 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 01:13 PM)Marcus Wrote:  Harvard obviously scares me. It all comes down to which UC shows up? The one that can score or the one that cant? You just have no clue what you are going to get from these guys. They have been hideous at the foul line the last number of games. I'd love to see Justin Jackson's FT% over his last 25 attempts. It has to be below 20%. I think UC matches up decently with Michigan State as well. One thing that worries me is how the officials call the game. Will they let the game be physical or not? West Coast officials arent exactly known for letting the guys "play".

Maybe. I will say I have watched Arizona a number of times and they play very physical defense.

Hopefully things have changed with officiating out West. Maybe they will let them play some this time around. There is nothing worse than a trio of officials whose constant whistle determines the outcome of games.

I don't know. I always thought there was nothing worse than a trio of officials who swallow their whistles and let teams mug each other, ruining the game.

Bearcats rely on getting SK a lot of FT attempts. I thought the last two UConn games were not called tight enough for UC.

(03-17-2014 01:13 PM)Marcus Wrote:  Harvard obviously scares me. It all comes down to which UC shows up? The one that can score or the one that cant? You just have no clue what you are going to get from these guys. They have been hideous at the foul line the last number of games. I'd love to see Justin Jackson's FT% over his last 25 attempts. It has to be below 20%. I think UC matches up decently with Michigan State as well. One thing that worries me is how the officials call the game. Will they let the game be physical or not? West Coast officials arent exactly known for letting the guys "play".

1 for his last 14 (4 game stretch) = 7.1%

4 for his last 20 (5 games) = 20%

The 6th game back is the UL loss where he went 4/4 bringing the average up to 33.3% for the last 6 games.

If SK is going to the free throw line a lot against Harvard, I believe UC cruises. Of course that correlates with him taking the ball hard to the rim and he should be able to do that often against Harvard compared to say UConn or Louisville.

If UC displays forty minutes of the defensive focus and energy we've seen so often this year we'll all feel pretty good by 5 P.M. Thursday and we can start worrying about MSU...or Delaware.

4 out of 6 of the CBS 'experts' pick Harvard. I read another preview that picked Harvard. Of course on the selection show Harvard was the pick.

UC will be ready to prove the so called experts wrong. The Bearcats are due for a good game.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...redictions

Harvard doesn't scare me at all. They're a senior-heavy team that wins through execution and always bringing their "A" game. They rarely win games based on superior talent.

The teams that UC has problems with are the ones with great individual talent that can break through good defenses. Louisville, UConn, and New Mexico fit this description, and SMU plays this way at home (although I think SMU has more talent than Harvard this year even on the road).

If we play like we did against Xavier, we'll lose. But I think our seniors are focused enough to not let that happen.

Michigan State, on the other hand, is a horrible draw for us. I've heard people say that they have the most talented starting 5 in the country when they're healthy. They're all healthy now, and Izzo always has his players mentally ready for the tourney. That game could get ugly.

I think we beat Harvard, but MSU and Payne is really tough. I think he is going to be a really good NBA player.

Harvard runs a Princeton offense. Out of all the upper echelon Big East teams that we consistently faced, we always had the most success against Georgetown and their Princeton offense. Due to that, I really like this matchup for us.

(03-17-2014 03:19 PM)JFlight21 Wrote:  Harvard runs a Princeton offense. Out of all the upper echelon Big East teams that we consistently faced, we always had the most success against Georgetown and their Princeton offense. Due to that, I really like this matchup for us.

I'm with you..do your fancy pass and weave Harvard and we'll have more deflections than Katherine Sebelius talking about obamacare.

(03-17-2014 03:19 PM)JFlight21 Wrote:  Harvard runs a Princeton offense. Out of all the upper echelon Big East teams that we consistently faced, we always had the most success against Georgetown and their Princeton offense. Due to that, I really like this matchup for us.

And don't think for a second that Princeton ever let's them forget that...

(03-17-2014 04:53 PM)BearcatBeta Wrote:  

(03-17-2014 03:19 PM)JFlight21 Wrote:  Harvard runs a Princeton offense. Out of all the upper echelon Big East teams that we consistently faced, we always had the most success against Georgetown and their Princeton offense. Due to that, I really like this matchup for us.

I'm with you..do your fancy pass and weave Harvard and we'll have more deflections than Katherine Sebelius talking about obamacare.

+1

Harvard is pretty average at taking care of the ball, turning it over at a 17-18% clip (124th nationally). Hopefully that will help us build a lead. Harvard also doesn't utilize the three ball much. Hopefully that will help us keep it.

My gut feeling though is that this will be a 60-55 sort of struggle that we frequently find ourselves in. Let's hope in those last 5 minutes of the game that we can generate a few turnovers and hit our FTs.

On ESPN3 you can find a Harvard / Princeton matchup on replay. Unfortunately the UConn game is too far in the past.

The one thing I will say with MSU in particular if we get to them and any other team after that is we always bring the opponent down to play our game: in the mud, ugly, our tempo, slugfest. That's why we can look awful on offense and still have a chance to win at the end.