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I like Toledo's chances tonight
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Nick in Cleveland Offline
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Post: #1
I like Toledo's chances tonight
I have a good feeling about tonight's game. The last time time Toledo made the NCAA I was in the 8th grade back in 1980. They are overdue and today is the day.

Prediction:
Toledo 77
Western 73
03-15-2014 03:25 PM
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rockytop Offline
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Post: #2
RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
I agree. Rockets are the better team if they play 40 minutes at the defensive end. I think they will. Of course we must face the COY. Still mad about that one.
03-15-2014 04:09 PM
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Nick in Cleveland Offline
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RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
I was wrong...
03-15-2014 07:22 PM
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ToledoMike Offline
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RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
Well Nick, you got our number of points spot on. Being a UT fan, I suppose we are used to dissappontment by now. I too thought we had a good chance tonight, but the curse continues if we don't somehow get an at large bid.
03-15-2014 07:46 PM
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bcunn3128 Away
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RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
(03-15-2014 07:46 PM)ToledoMike Wrote:  Well Nick, you got our number of points spot on. Being a UT fan, I suppose we are used to dissappontment by now. I too thought we had a good chance tonight, but the curse continues if we don't somehow get an at large bid.

We got our butts kicked. There will be no at large NCAA bid.
03-15-2014 08:03 PM
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Toledo Football 1st Offline
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Post: #6
RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
After beating Western at home I had a good feeling about tonight, too. We lost to NIU and WMU about hung 100 on us tonight. It's the NIT.
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2014 08:47 PM by Toledo Football 1st.)
03-15-2014 08:47 PM
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ToledoMike Offline
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RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
(03-15-2014 08:03 PM)bcunn3128 Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 07:46 PM)ToledoMike Wrote:  Well Nick, you got our number of points spot on. Being a UT fan, I suppose we are used to dissappontment by now. I too thought we had a good chance tonight, but the curse continues if we don't somehow get an at large bid.

We got our butts kicked. There will be no at large NCAA bid.

(03-15-2014 08:47 PM)Toledo Football 1st Wrote:  After beating Western at home I had a good feeling about tonight, too. We lost to NIU and WMU about hung 100 on us tonight. It's the NIT.

I would assume as much since there has been no bubble talk for us since those disappointing MAC West defeats. Some I have talked with think 27 wins and a #35 RPI would be good enough, but when you are in the MAC there is no such room for error. Personally, I think the MAC was pretty damn tough this year. As we all know, winning the MAC is not a walk in the park. Defensively, we are missing that 6'10" dominant center that the winning teams always seem to come up with somehow.
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2014 08:51 PM by ToledoMike.)
03-15-2014 08:51 PM
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djsfw57 Offline
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RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
27 wins/#37 RPI IS good enough - if you are one of the big boys. Unfortunately we all know that the power schools have a completely different set of rules than the mid majors.
03-16-2014 07:48 AM
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T-Town Offline
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Post: #9
RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
(03-15-2014 07:22 PM)Nick in Cleveland Wrote:  I was wrong...

Understandable----I also mislead myself into expecting a win because based on the EMU game I believed that the Rockets were finally committed to (and capable of) playing tough team defense for almost 40 minutes at a time and furthermore I never saw that disastrous rebound mismatch coming.
03-16-2014 10:05 AM
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ToledoMike Offline
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RE: I like Toledo's chances tonight
(03-16-2014 07:48 AM)djsfw57 Wrote:  27 wins/#37 RPI IS good enough - if you are one of the big boys. Unfortunately we all know that the power schools have a completely different set of rules than the mid majors.

You are correct and I think the RPI algorithm is crap. Computer algos are supposed to be able weed through conference differences to come up with an decent equalizing formula using SOS and how the team does against that schedule. RPI is not accurate in many cases since it doesn't figure in the margin of victory (MOV). Even looking past MOV, it doesn't seem to work very well with the way things are weighted.

Let's examine how the RPI is obviously wrong in our case, even by using their own "how we did" logic. Our RPI rank is 37 after yesterday. We as fans know and the experts know that we weren't the 37th best team by watching our mediocre play and lackluster outcomes against middling teams. Sure, we have talent and potential, but the computers, especially the RPI, can't evaluate that.

We were 0-1 vs RPI 1-50 (Kansas)
We were 6-4 against RPI 51-100
We only lost one game against teams with RPI 101+ (NIU)

So,even by their own logic and not looking at MOV, our 6-4 record shows that we belong more in the 51-100 rank category and not inside the top 50. Our BPI is much more accurate at #88 and Sagarin at #104 which both take MOV into consideration.
03-16-2014 11:18 AM
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