(03-16-2014 08:45 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  

(03-16-2014 08:11 AM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 10:43 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 10:27 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 10:25 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Michigan as one seed would be a joke. They simply don't have a one seed resume in my opinion. Iowa State beat them head to head and has better numbers and nobody is handing them a one seed. Michigan still has three double digit losses and a bad loss to Charlotte early in the season. Seven total losses is still too much for my taste.

A #1 should not have bad losses and shouldn't have lost 7 times.

How about the Cards for a #1?

Nice run at the end of the season but take a look at their wins...really not very impressive. But they may get the nod because there aren't a bunch of other standouts.

I disagree. They are the only team to win at UC and at SMU plus the absolutely owned UConn in all three games. That is same UConn team that beat Memphis three times, won twp out three from Cincinnati, and beat Florida.

Not my final seed predictions for the top six lines:

1. Florida, Wichita State, Arizona, Villanova
2. Louisville, Iowa State, Michigan, Wisconsin
3. Duke, Virginia, Kansas, SDSU
4. Creighton, Syracuse, Michigan State, Cincinnati
5. UCLA, UConn, New Mexico, VCU
6. North Carolina, Ohio State, Kentucky, Oklahoma.

I could easily see both Mountain West teams earning no higher than a four seed. Their lack of top 50 and top 100 opponents could hurt them. UCLA has three losses out the top 75 including one to sub 200 RPI Washington State a week ago. I could say the same thing about Duke too which is why I hard time giving them anything more than a three if they win today, however, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Clemson are better than Oregon State, Utah, and Washington State. The Bearcats could still earn a three seed if the committee values regular season conference championships. Cats were still the only team to beat every team in the conference at least once. UC's average RPI loss is 31 which is better than other teams in their seed range.

Five good in conference wins do not a #1 seed make. That's it 5.
UofL was also SWEPT by Memphis. Swept home and away.
SMU is now at risk of not making the tournament so that might be 4 good wins.
I'd like to think a #1 seed would have more than 4-5 good wins.

UC has 5-6 good wins (SMU, SWEPT Memphis, UofL, UConn, Nebraska) and will not be anywhere near a #1 seed.

(03-16-2014 08:58 AM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(03-16-2014 08:45 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  

(03-16-2014 08:11 AM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 10:43 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 10:27 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  A #1 should not have bad losses and shouldn't have lost 7 times.

How about the Cards for a #1?

Nice run at the end of the season but take a look at their wins...really not very impressive. But they may get the nod because there aren't a bunch of other standouts.

I disagree. They are the only team to win at UC and at SMU plus the absolutely owned UConn in all three games. That is same UConn team that beat Memphis three times, won twp out three from Cincinnati, and beat Florida.

Not my final seed predictions for the top six lines:

1. Florida, Wichita State, Arizona, Villanova
2. Louisville, Iowa State, Michigan, Wisconsin
3. Duke, Virginia, Kansas, SDSU
4. Creighton, Syracuse, Michigan State, Cincinnati
5. UCLA, UConn, New Mexico, VCU
6. North Carolina, Ohio State, Kentucky, Oklahoma.

I could easily see both Mountain West teams earning no higher than a four seed. Their lack of top 50 and top 100 opponents could hurt them. UCLA has three losses out the top 75 including one to sub 200 RPI Washington State a week ago. I could say the same thing about Duke too which is why I hard time giving them anything more than a three if they win today, however, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Clemson are better than Oregon State, Utah, and Washington State. The Bearcats could still earn a three seed if the committee values regular season conference championships. Cats were still the only team to beat every team in the conference at least once. UC's average RPI loss is 31 which is better than other teams in their seed range.

Five good in conference wins do not a #1 seed make. That's it 5.
UofL was also SWEPT by Memphis. Swept home and away.
SMU is now at risk of not making the tournament so that might be 4 good wins.
I'd like to think a #1 seed would have more than 4-5 good wins.

UC has 5-6 good wins (SMU, SWEPT Memphis, UofL, UConn, Nebraska) and will not be anywhere near a #1 seed.

I gave the one seed to Villanova but their best is win is Kansas. After that it double digit seed line teams like Providence, St. Joe's, and Xavier. UC's has better wins over quality teams than Villanova has. After you slot Wichita State, Florida, and Arizona the next twenty something picks blur together. The key is getting a four seed or better to avoid a potential at-large team. With mid-major one seeds falling like crazy, the automatic bid winners are very weak.

Eyeball test says UL should clearly be a 1. Resume does not back that up, though.

They are going to make a 1 seed miserable when they see UL is in their bracket.

How much parity is their in college bb when the fourth number 1 is this debated, could be any number of 5 or 6 teams.

Some teams I don't want to see in the first two rounds:
Duke
N.C.
Creighton
Ky.
Virginia
UCLA
Cuse
N.M.
And of coarse UL, right now.
There are other teams but we should not meet them in the first two rounds.

In todays Top 25 and 1, CBS has moved UC up to number 10 this morning. WTF, who knows what goes on in the mind of some of these people.

(03-16-2014 09:45 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  In todays Top 25 and 1, CBS has moved UC up to number 10 this morning. WTF, who knows what goes on in the mind of some of these people.

It could people looking at the entire season and correcting their previous mistakes. Remember, not matter what at Louisville fans says just tell them the Bearcats were the only team to beat everyone in the league this year.

Some main bracket projections today:

Palm: 3
SI: 4
USA Today: 4
Lunardi: 5

Going to stick with a 4 myself.

I've thought 4 since the beginning of the month and see no reason to alter that now.

The fact all these experts keep forcing Kansaa into the 2 line just boggles the mind.

(03-16-2014 09:09 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Eyeball test says UL should clearly be a 1. Resume does not back that up, though.

They are going to make a 1 seed miserable when they see UL is in their bracket.

If no 4th team has a 1 seed resume you might as well give it to the team that's playing like the overall 1 seed. If Michigan looses I think that's what the committee would do as a compromise. Can you imagine Wichita being rewarded for an undefeated season by having their road to the final 4 go through Louisville in the Indianapolis region?

(03-16-2014 11:38 AM)CD11 Wrote:  I've thought 4 since the beginning of the month and see no reason to alter that now.

I think we get the 5 due to UCLA winning and the committee needing a 4 seed for those Western sites.

(03-16-2014 12:34 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-16-2014 11:38 AM)CD11 Wrote:  I've thought 4 since the beginning of the month and see no reason to alter that now.

I think we get the 5 due to UCLA winning and the committee needing a 4 seed for those Western sites.

Yep. It was going to take an upset or two to move us down and UCLA pulled it off. Now I hope Michigan State wins to keep them the hell away from us. I also hope Florida wins so there's no chance we see UK in the first weekend, as slim as that would be. JJ would foul out in less than 20 minutes against them.

(03-16-2014 11:58 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(03-16-2014 09:09 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Eyeball test says UL should clearly be a 1. Resume does not back that up, though.

They are going to make a 1 seed miserable when they see UL is in their bracket.

If no 4th team has a 1 seed resume you might as well give it to the team that's playing like the overall 1 seed. If Michigan looses I think that's what the committee would do as a compromise. Can you imagine Wichita being rewarded for an undefeated season by having their road to the final 4 go through Louisville in the Indianapolis region?

I could see the committee doing just that. Wichita St. while they deserve a 1 seed really is pretty unproven against better competition. Wichita St if they are deserving of a 1 should be able to beat UofL and any other comers.

UofLs resume just doesn't say 1 seed. I think UofL maybe a 2 based on their tournament performance but even in the tourney they got a very easy road to the final.