more here --> http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/..._usa_log51

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

Projections:

Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 La. Tech 100 100 80.9 43.6 29.2
5 UTEP 100 90.7 52.7 29.6 20.0
2 Tulsa 100 100 83.9 46.9 17.8
3 Middle Tenn. 100 100 77.6 43.0 16.4
4 Southern Miss 100 100 46.0 22.4 13.5
8 UAB 100 57.8 12.2 2.9 1.1
6 Old Dominion 100 60.8 15.4 4.8 0.9
10 North Texas 75.0 49.5 10.4 2.8 0.4
9 Charlotte 100 42.2 6.9 1.3 0.4
11 Fla. Atlantic 50.9 20.2 3.7 0.9 0.1
14 Marshall 49.1 19.0 3.3 0.8 0.09
7 Tulane 100 40.6 4.9 0.8 0.07
12 East Carolina 71.0 7.9 1.2 0.2 0.04
15 Rice 25.0 9.9 0.8 0.09 0.006
13 UTSA 29.0 1.4 0.09 0.007 0.0007

Woo-hoo! .04 chance is still a chance!

(03-11-2014 10:39 AM)Chappy Wrote:  Woo-hoo! .04 chance is still a chance!

Don't be rediculous. That's not a chance. The Monarchs have almost twice as much chance as the Pirates!

Lloyd: What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me…ending up together?

Mary: Not good.

Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?

Mary: I’d say more like one out of a million.

Lloyd: So you’re telling me there’s a chance......Yeah!

SportsNetwork picks Tulsa http://sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.a...nf=confusa

(03-11-2014 01:48 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  SportsNetwork picks Tulsa http://sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.a...nf=confusa

Why does Marshall have just as much of a chance at the CUSA Champ as ODU, albeit a small chance?

According to the KenPom site:
ODU has 0.9%
Marshall has 0.09%

(03-11-2014 10:11 AM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  more here --> http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/..._usa_log51

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

Projections:

Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 La. Tech 100 100 80.9 43.6 29.2
5 UTEP 100 90.7 52.7 29.6 20.0
2 Tulsa 100 100 83.9 46.9 17.8
3 Middle Tenn. 100 100 77.6 43.0 16.4
4 Southern Miss 100 100 46.0 22.4 13.5
8 UAB 100 57.8 12.2 2.9 1.1
6 Old Dominion 100 60.8 15.4 4.8 0.9
10 North Texas 75.0 49.5 10.4 2.8 0.4
9 Charlotte 100 42.2 6.9 1.3 0.4
11 Fla. Atlantic 50.9 20.2 3.7 0.9 0.1
14 Marshall 49.1 19.0 3.3 0.8 0.09
7 Tulane 100 40.6 4.9 0.8 0.07
12 East Carolina 71.0 7.9 1.2 0.2 0.04
15 Rice 25.0 9.9 0.8 0.09 0.006
13 UTSA 29.0 1.4 0.09 0.007 0.0007

(03-11-2014 02:00 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  According to the KenPom site:
ODU has 0.9%
Marshall has 0.09%

OOPS

didn't see that extra 0

Although it DOES say we have a better chance than #7 seed Tulane at 0.07

If I was a betting man, I'd throw down ten bucks on UAB and ECU just because the odds are probably very low, but they actually do have a "chance" imo

Would love to see how these adjust once we get to semis.

Marshall v FAU was close to a toss-up.
NT did defeat Rice.
71% chance that ECU beats UTSA looks about right to me.


Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

(03-11-2014 11:10 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  

(03-11-2014 10:39 AM)Chappy Wrote:  Woo-hoo! .04 chance is still a chance!

Don't be rediculous. That's not a chance. The Monarchs have almost twice as much chance as the Pirates!

Try 22.5 (0.9/0.04) times the chance.

Does Kenpom adjust the Log5 daily?