Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
Author Message
TIGERCITY Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 19,908
Joined: Feb 2009
Reputation: 437
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #1
Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
"American log5
by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 10, 2014

I’m using my ratings and Bill James’ log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.

American Athletic Conference
Location: Memphis
Dates: March 12-15
Chance of bid thief: zero
Current kPOY: Russ Smith, Louisville

Projections:

Qtrs Semis Final Champ

2 Louisville 100 95.4 73.9 53.9
1 Cincinnati 100 88.4 47.9 17.5
3 SMU 100 82.5 23.6 11.5
5 Memphis 100 54.0 28.2 9.7
4 UConn 100 46.0 22.4 7.0
6 Houston 100 17.5 1.6 0.3
8 Temple 54.5 6.8 1.0 0.09
7 Rutgers 55.3 2.8 0.5 0.06
9 UCF 45.5 4.8 0.6 0.04
10 S. Florida 44.7 1.8 0.3 0.03

Louisville and Cincinnati finished the season with identical 15-3 records in the inaugural season of the American. Standard tie-breaking procedures did not resolve the deadlock, so the top seed was decided by a coin-flip. I like to talk about theoretical coin-flips deciding so many important things in sports, but this was a real one, complete with Bill Raftery as a witness.

Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin called heads, all the while knowing that tails never fails, and tails would allow the Bearcats to avoid a potential semi-final road game (because the tourney is being played at Memphis’s FedExForum). Alas, the coin came up heads. Or did it? It’s impossible to tell from the grainy video supplied. It doesn’t even pan to the ground. There may not have even been a coin and there’s no way of verifying Mick Cronin was actually the person on the phone. It’s about as legitimate as the moon landing.

The result of this false flag is that Louisville is a slightly bigger favorite than they otherwise would be. Because that is exactly how the American wanted it."
03-11-2014 09:52 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Bearcat2012 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,408
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 70
I Root For: Cincy Bearcats
Location:
Post: #2
RE: Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
(03-11-2014 09:52 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  Louisville and Cincinnati finished the season with identical 15-3 records in the inaugural season of the American. Standard tie-breaking procedures did not resolve the deadlock, so the top seed was decided by a coin-flip. I like to talk about theoretical coin-flips deciding so many important things in sports, but this was a real one, complete with Bill Raftery as a witness.

Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin called heads, all the while knowing that tails never fails, and tails would allow the Bearcats to avoid a potential semi-final road game (because the tourney is being played at Memphis’s FedExForum). Alas, the coin came up heads. Or did it? It’s impossible to tell from the grainy video supplied. It doesn’t even pan to the ground. There may not have even been a coin and there’s no way of verifying Mick Cronin was actually the person on the phone. It’s about as legitimate as the moon landing.





classic.
03-11-2014 09:59 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Maize Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 21,340
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 555
I Root For: Athletes First
Location:
Post: #3
RE: Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
Hoping for a AAC Final of Louisville vs. Cincinnati...our Oldest Rival and it would be the 100th Meeting...Russdiculous vs. SK...04-cheers
03-11-2014 10:08 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
mattsarz Offline
TV Guide
*

Posts: 7,159
Joined: Mar 2006
Reputation: 110
I Root For: SU, Ariz. St.
Location: Painesville, OH
Post: #4
RE: Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
(03-11-2014 10:08 AM)Maize Wrote:  Hoping for a AAC Final of Louisville vs. Cincinnati...our Oldest Rival and it would be the 100th Meeting...Russdiculous vs. SK...04-cheers

Please don't take this the wrong way b/c its not meant to place both schools back in their C-USA skins, but all that would be missing is a 11:30am ET tip time on CBS.
(This post was last modified: 03-11-2014 10:26 AM by mattsarz.)
03-11-2014 10:25 AM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Maize Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 21,340
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 555
I Root For: Athletes First
Location:
Post: #5
RE: Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
(03-11-2014 10:25 AM)mattsarz Wrote:  
(03-11-2014 10:08 AM)Maize Wrote:  Hoping for a AAC Final of Louisville vs. Cincinnati...our Oldest Rival and it would be the 100th Meeting...Russdiculous vs. SK...04-cheers

Please don't take this the wrong way b/c its not meant to place both schools back in their C-USA skins, but all that would be missing is a 11:30am ET tip time on CBS.

Lol...that is ssssooo true...and actually the early time this year would've worked better for me...have an obligation to go to this Saturday at 6pm....03-banghead
03-11-2014 10:34 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stxrunner Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,263
Joined: May 2013
Reputation: 189
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location: Chicago, IL
Post: #6
RE: Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
(03-11-2014 10:25 AM)mattsarz Wrote:  
(03-11-2014 10:08 AM)Maize Wrote:  Hoping for a AAC Final of Louisville vs. Cincinnati...our Oldest Rival and it would be the 100th Meeting...Russdiculous vs. SK...04-cheers

Please don't take this the wrong way b/c its not meant to place both schools back in their C-USA skins, but all that would be missing is a 11:30am ET tip time on CBS.

The funny thing about that is...Cincinnati and Louisville never played in the C-USA conference tournament final. Crazy, I know.
03-11-2014 12:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Maize Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 21,340
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 555
I Root For: Athletes First
Location:
Post: #7
RE: Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
(03-11-2014 12:47 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  
(03-11-2014 10:25 AM)mattsarz Wrote:  
(03-11-2014 10:08 AM)Maize Wrote:  Hoping for a AAC Final of Louisville vs. Cincinnati...our Oldest Rival and it would be the 100th Meeting...Russdiculous vs. SK...04-cheers

Please don't take this the wrong way b/c its not meant to place both schools back in their C-USA skins, but all that would be missing is a 11:30am ET tip time on CBS.

The funny thing about that is...Cincinnati and Louisville never played in the C-USA conference tournament final. Crazy, I know.

The 2012 BIG EAST Tournament Final between the two was a bruising game....04-cheers
03-11-2014 01:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
owlfan2272 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,131
Joined: Dec 2009
Reputation: 78
I Root For: Temple Owls
Location:
Post: #8
RE: Ken Pomeroy's blog on the AAC Tournament
0.09% chance sounds good to me!
03-11-2014 03:13 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.