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The future of the Missouri Valley
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #61
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
All the Wichita State scenarios seem a bit implausible to me. The geography just doesn't work for them.

I like the AAC scenario because it balances the geography fairly well but I just don't see it.
03-15-2014 03:26 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #62
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 03:26 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  All the Wichita State scenarios seem a bit implausible to me. The geography just doesn't work for them.

I like the AAC scenario because it balances the geography fairly well but I just don't see it.
There's no urgency for the AAC on the BBall front at present, given their comfortable multi-bid status, even without Louisville, so it makes a lot of sense for them to wait and see on that strategy until their current contract comes closer to renewal. No point making a move for Wichita State now if its some other BBall-first school that has the sex appeal in 2019/2020.

And the other conceivable Wichita State moves seem like they would fall down on either not being a big enough improvement to either Wichita State or the new conference or both to justify the geography.

(03-15-2014 01:57 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The BE if it wanted could target Virginia Commonwealth and Wichita State to bring in one nice public basketball school on each side of the division.
Its unlikely that the Big East fan base has so many OCD fans that there is any particular advantage in that kind of extremely abstract symmetry. And a willingness to include a public school doesn't imply an interest among the former members of the Old Big East in seeing the start toward a "public school bloc".
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2014 03:38 PM by BruceMcF.)
03-15-2014 03:34 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #63
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 01:57 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 01:43 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 07:34 AM)orangefan Wrote:  UMass strikes me as the best candidate if the MAC will keep them on as football only.
If the Big East wants to take an east coast public school, they can take VCU without any risk of losing them in the next round of FBS alignment should they experience success in FB.

A move to the Big East is probably worth it for VCU since Georgetown, Villanova and Xavier are in that conference. Its a better top tier than what the A10 offers. Gtown is a school VCU would like to rub shoulders with.

The BE if it wanted could target Virginia Commonwealth and Wichita State to bring in one nice public basketball school on each side of the division.

You seem to be assuming that G'town, Nova, et al will remain top tier teams in the future. They could well slip down to the level of the top A-10 schools after a few years of recruiting without the cachet the former BE schools added. What was G'town before they joined the BE? I believe Villanova had one good year, but overall I think the BE will be just another mid-major hoping to get an at-large bid to the NCAAT.
03-15-2014 03:39 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #64
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 03:39 PM)ken d Wrote:  You seem to be assuming that G'town, Nova, et al will remain top tier teams in the future.
Yes, I for one am indeed assuming that. In a year where there is literally one conference below the top ten RPI conferences that could get an at-large bid due to its regular season champion being upset in their conference tournament, the Big East is clearly in the top ten tier of multi-bid conferences. They have enough programs with enough history to have a better than even chance of maintaining that status on the basis of their existing membership, and conference income that allows them to boost their standing through expansion in the long-odds event that those ten cannot sustain it on their own.

And if cost-of-attendance stipends become a conference by conference option, its clear that the Big East will be able to afford those, which will give it an additional substantial recruiting advantage over a number of the autobid-only conferences.
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2014 03:49 PM by BruceMcF.)
03-15-2014 03:49 PM
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #65
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 03:49 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 03:39 PM)ken d Wrote:  You seem to be assuming that G'town, Nova, et al will remain top tier teams in the future.
Yes, I for one am indeed assuming that. In a year where there is literally one conference below the top ten RPI conferences that could get an at-large bid due to its regular season champion being upset in their conference tournament, the Big East is clearly in the top ten tier of multi-bid conferences. They have enough programs with enough history to have a better than even chance of maintaining that status on the basis of their existing membership, and conference income that allows them to boost their standing through expansion in the long-odds event that those ten cannot sustain it on their own.

And if cost-of-attendance stipends become a conference by conference option, its clear that the Big East will be able to afford those, which will give it an additional substantial recruiting advantage over a number of the autobid-only conferences.

Agreed. The BE has the money to stay in the game. The A10 has largely done more with less. In the long run, money should translate into continued success. The biggest risk is that they will be forgotten on FS1, but I believe FOX will continue to invest heavily in promoting the success of FS1 and its partners.
03-15-2014 04:04 PM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #66
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 04:04 PM)orangefan Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 03:49 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 03:39 PM)ken d Wrote:  You seem to be assuming that G'town, Nova, et al will remain top tier teams in the future.
Yes, I for one am indeed assuming that. In a year where there is literally one conference below the top ten RPI conferences that could get an at-large bid due to its regular season champion being upset in their conference tournament, the Big East is clearly in the top ten tier of multi-bid conferences. They have enough programs with enough history to have a better than even chance of maintaining that status on the basis of their existing membership, and conference income that allows them to boost their standing through expansion in the long-odds event that those ten cannot sustain it on their own.

And if cost-of-attendance stipends become a conference by conference option, its clear that the Big East will be able to afford those, which will give it an additional substantial recruiting advantage over a number of the autobid-only conferences.

Agreed. The BE has the money to stay in the game. The A10 has largely done more with less. In the long run, money should translate into continued success. The biggest risk is that they will be forgotten on FS1, but I believe FOX will continue to invest heavily in promoting the success of FS1 and its partners.

And if Fox wins the B1G bidding there will be a lot more people who can suddenly find what channel FS1 and FS2 are on.
03-15-2014 05:05 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #67
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
Georgetown, Villanova and Xavier have 30+ years of successful basketball tradition that is nationally competitive.

Those are the 3 programs that the BE is essentially banking their future on. I have a difficulty seeing St. John's and Providence becoming Top 10 programs anytime soon. Make the NCAA's every once in a while sure but to be top shelf good luck.

I think its going to take Creighton a Final Four out of the BE before they are thought of as a real BE program and not just an MVC school lost in the BE. Creighton hasn't been even to a Sweet 16 since 1974 so obviously they have some work to do.
03-15-2014 11:22 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #68
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 05:05 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  And if Fox wins the B1G bidding there will be a lot more people who can suddenly find what channel FS1 and FS2 are on.
Or if Fox/FS1 and ABC/ESPN do a consortium deal.
03-16-2014 09:23 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #69
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier, and Marquette should be fine, so long as they win and continue to challenge themselves in the non-conference. Schools like Creighton should be in the middle or top most years, too. Butler's had a run of good coaches, so I think this year is an anomaly, but, if it's not, they should be no worse than Seton Hall. DePaul looks like they just gave up after they got their invite.

I think network contracts have given the major conference schools a reason to be needlessly picky about who they play in the non-conference. It's like they need an incentive to go out and schedule up, like if a camera isn't on them, they won't spend the money to host or travel. So be it. If that's the case, the new Big East is going to be the SEC. One or two great teams, and a lot of filler. Fans will thump their chests and scream "look at our conference, look at our SOS," but, there won't be a single good thing outside of the conference on the brag sheet.

The Big East is probably going to prey upon the A10 after this season. They might decide to block them in scheduling, which is their own foolish choice, because the A10 is a conference of smallish schools who have no problem packing their bags and going where the games are. Or, like what happened to Gonzaga there for a bit, go to virtually any holiday tournament and get your big games there, if schools perpetually refuse to schedule you.

I hope the MVC can follow the A10 in that methodology, although I don't think the MVC is as basketball-minded as the A10. And who knows what happens if MoSU is lured out of the conference, or if someone does offer Wichita State better accommodations...
03-16-2014 10:21 AM
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darkdragon99 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
Wichita State is probably gonna start football back up again some day. They arent going to a basketball only league.
03-17-2014 12:29 AM
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Jet915 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 01:24 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(03-11-2014 11:59 AM)mlb Wrote:  Dayton and SLU seem like no-brainers to the Big East. I am still surprised that the Big East didn't invite them last year with Xavier and Butler.

St. Louis and Dayton have city names. Aside from Providence every school in the Big East has a non-city name. I'm wondering if part of the concern on adding those two stems from sounding too Midwestern for a league that wants to continue to stake a claim on the East Coast.

Another idea for the BE; When the B12 expands with Cincinnati and Memphis destroying the AAC basketball conference in its wake why not reach back out to UConn for an invite?

That is what the Big East really could use more than anything else UCONN. Maybe throw SLU that 12th bid after 5 more years of NCAA tournament basketball.

I think the Big East would take UCONN back because of it's long history in the Big East. The problem is UCONN has invested so much money into their crappy football program that there is no way they will throw that away and the Big East is not going to take anyone with a division I football program.
03-17-2014 08:23 AM
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Jet915 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 01:57 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 01:43 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 07:34 AM)orangefan Wrote:  UMass strikes me as the best candidate if the MAC will keep them on as football only.
If the Big East wants to take an east coast public school, they can take VCU without any risk of losing them in the next round of FBS alignment should they experience success in FB.

A move to the Big East is probably worth it for VCU since Georgetown, Villanova and Xavier are in that conference. Its a better top tier than what the A10 offers. Gtown is a school VCU would like to rub shoulders with.

The BE if it wanted could target Virginia Commonwealth and Wichita State to bring in one nice public basketball school on each side of the division.

If VCU was a private school, they would have already been invited to the Big East IMO. Right or wrong, I think the University Presidents are wary of adding a public school. As for Wichita State, there is no way they are getting in. I don't think Creighton would allow it and their academics are akin to a community college.
03-17-2014 08:25 AM
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Jet915 Offline
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Post: #73
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-15-2014 03:39 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 01:57 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 01:43 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(03-15-2014 07:34 AM)orangefan Wrote:  UMass strikes me as the best candidate if the MAC will keep them on as football only.
If the Big East wants to take an east coast public school, they can take VCU without any risk of losing them in the next round of FBS alignment should they experience success in FB.

A move to the Big East is probably worth it for VCU since Georgetown, Villanova and Xavier are in that conference. Its a better top tier than what the A10 offers. Gtown is a school VCU would like to rub shoulders with.

The BE if it wanted could target Virginia Commonwealth and Wichita State to bring in one nice public basketball school on each side of the division.

You seem to be assuming that G'town, Nova, et al will remain top tier teams in the future. They could well slip down to the level of the top A-10 schools after a few years of recruiting without the cachet the former BE schools added. What was G'town before they joined the BE? I believe Villanova had one good year, but overall I think the BE will be just another mid-major hoping to get an at-large bid to the NCAAT.

I doubt his. First, the Big East has money. Second, if you look at 2014 recruiting (alot of recruits committed after it was known that the C7 was breaking off), the Big East has the 2nd most top 100 recruits of any conference except the ACC (and we only have 10 schools). I think many kids like the idea of playing big time basketball at basketball only schools.
03-17-2014 08:27 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #74
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-17-2014 08:25 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  Right or wrong, I think the University Presidents are wary of adding a public school.

Yeah...the conference should really rethink that one. Let them learn the hard way, though.
03-17-2014 11:17 AM
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Post: #75
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-17-2014 11:17 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 08:25 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  Right or wrong, I think the University Presidents are wary of adding a public school.

Yeah...the conference should really rethink that one. Let them learn the hard way, though.

I wouldn't be shocked if 10-15 years from now, the MVC is all or nearly all private schools.
03-17-2014 01:11 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #76
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-17-2014 01:11 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 11:17 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 08:25 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  Right or wrong, I think the University Presidents are wary of adding a public school.

Yeah...the conference should really rethink that one. Let them learn the hard way, though.

I wouldn't be shocked if 10-15 years from now, the MVC is all or nearly all private schools.

I'm curious where the public ones would go? Even if some of those guys want to leave, who's going to take them? Or, what "better option" becomes available?
03-17-2014 02:52 PM
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Chuck A Offline
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Post: #77
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-17-2014 01:11 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 11:17 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 08:25 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  Right or wrong, I think the University Presidents are wary of adding a public school.

Yeah...the conference should really rethink that one. Let them learn the hard way, though.

I wouldn't be shocked if 10-15 years from now, the MVC is all or nearly all private schools.

Why? I wouldn't be shocked if it becomes all or nearly all public schools. In general, the publics have the most money, better facilities and better athletes (especially at the non-BCS level). Privates are the ones that are running away of hybrid private/public conferences, not the other way around. There are not enough viable privates around to do the things that the Catholic 7 did, unless you begin to bring up a bunch of Div 2 and Div 3 private schools.
03-18-2014 11:28 AM
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Post: #78
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-18-2014 11:28 AM)Chuck A Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 01:11 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 11:17 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 08:25 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  Right or wrong, I think the University Presidents are wary of adding a public school.

Yeah...the conference should really rethink that one. Let them learn the hard way, though.

I wouldn't be shocked if 10-15 years from now, the MVC is all or nearly all private schools.

Why? I wouldn't be shocked if it becomes all or nearly all public schools. In general, the publics have the most money, better facilities and better athletes (especially at the non-BCS level). Privates are the ones that are running away of hybrid private/public conferences, not the other way around. There are not enough viable privates around to do the things that the Catholic 7 did, unless you begin to bring up a bunch of Div 2 and Div 3 private schools.

Because college basketball is in trouble. The average viewer age is much older than NBA and it is less racially diverse at a time when racial diversity is increasing in the US.

I think you are going to see some of the public Valley schools trying to get on the FBS football train while they can.
03-18-2014 01:56 PM
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MU88 Offline
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Post: #79
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-17-2014 08:25 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  If VCU was a private school, they would have already been invited to the Big East IMO.

It has nothing to do with VCU being public. VCU won't be invited because Georgetown doesn't want them in the conference and the other schools respect Georgetown's reasons.
03-18-2014 02:19 PM
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Jet915 Offline
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Post: #80
RE: The future of the Missouri Valley
(03-18-2014 02:19 PM)MU88 Wrote:  
(03-17-2014 08:25 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  If VCU was a private school, they would have already been invited to the Big East IMO.

It has nothing to do with VCU being public. VCU won't be invited because Georgetown doesn't want them in the conference and the other schools respect Georgetown's reasons.

But they supposedly were in favor of Richmond?
03-18-2014 02:22 PM
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