Around tournament time, I always hear people say "It's hard to beat a team a third time". I decided to see what kind of data I could find. Since the 2000-2001 season I found 39 cases of one team beating another twice in the MAC regular season, then playing a third in the MAC Tournament. The team that won both regular season games is 32-7 (.821) in those third games.

(03-10-2014 12:31 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  Around tournament time, I always hear people say "It's hard to beat a team a third time". I decided to see what kind of data I could find. Since the 2000-2001 season I found 39 cases of one team beating another twice in the MAC regular season, then playing a third in the MAC Tournament. The team that won both regular season games is 32-7 (.821) in those third games.

I would think that the hardest part about beating a team three times in one season is winning the first two games.

Toledo is 1-1 vs. WMU, 1-0 vs. UB, 1-0 vs. Akron, 1-1 vs. OU, 1-1 vs. EMU, 1-1 vs. NIU, and 1-0 vs. Miami. We won't even the shot to do 3-0 hah. It's kind of a yikes that we beat all teams we split with at home.

But how many of the times was the winner an obvious favorite?

It's hard to beat a GOOD team 3 times.

(03-10-2014 12:44 PM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  But how many of the times was the winner an obvious favorite?

It's hard to beat a GOOD team 3 times.

Not sure how to quantify GOOD, but...

When both teams were .500 or better in MAC play, the team that won the first two games was 11-3 (.786) in the third.

When the two teams were withing 4 MAC wins of each other, the team that won the first two games was 15-4 (.789) in the third.

I think the whole 'it's hard to beat a team three times' cliche is just something to give fans hope when they face off against a better team for a third time. For example, if OU and Miami win tonight and meet Wednesday in Cleveland, I could tell myself that we're due for a win based off of how well we've played and how close we've lost in our two games this year. In all likelihood, we'll lose a third time if we end up playing again, but it's far from impossible.

(03-10-2014 12:32 PM)bn9 Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 12:31 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  Around tournament time, I always hear people say "It's hard to beat a team a third time". I decided to see what kind of data I could find. Since the 2000-2001 season I found 39 cases of one team beating another twice in the MAC regular season, then playing a third in the MAC Tournament. The team that won both regular season games is 32-7 (.821) in those third games.

I would think that the hardest part about beating a team three times in one season is winning the first two games.

Actually that's the easy part. Every team that ever won three straight won the first two, but only all of them were able to win the third.