While I know the polls have little to do with seeds- and while I know matchups are more important than seed- So many seeds projected in the 7-9 range for team ranked 19. Thought we would be past that with the new league. The one loss to Houston cannot possibly be that much of an anchor you would think.

Lose to UConn- will end up in that 7-10 range- but if our kids win two to three games in this tourney- would hope for a stronger seed and with that a likely less tough (but still good) first round opponent.

So we now have 3 wins over teams that have been top 5 at some point in this season, nice!!

Interesting about Michigan State. They beat #24 Iowa and Iowa drops out. They lose to unranked (#33) Ohio State and Ohio State jumps up to 24. Michigan State stays at 22.

And the 40-0 team is no where to be found.

We were #9 in KenPom in 2012 and got an 8 seed. The computers love Louisville because when they are better than someone that absolutely crush them. That is pretty much what we did in 2012 and the computers loved us. The pretty much any of these systems work is that a projected outcome is generated based on performance to that point, and if a team consistently outperform the projection that team will move up. We have underperfomed the projections in most of our wins while Louisville has outperformed. KenPom says that on a neutral Lousville would be around 10 points better than UConn, but they won by 30. Tennessee has vaulted up the KenPom rankings because they have won their last three by 38, 28, and 27 - much more than projected.

Catspaws said they are the 1st team since 1980 to start # 1 and finish unranked.

(03-10-2014 01:49 PM)TigerBCL Wrote:  We were #9 in KenPom in 2012 and got an 8 seed. The computers love Louisville because when they are better than someone that absolutely crush them. That is pretty much what we did in 2012 and the computers loved us. The pretty much any of these systems work is that a projected outcome is generated based on performance to that point, and if a team consistently outperform the projection that team will move up. We have underperfomed the projections in most of our wins while Louisville has outperformed. KenPom says that on a neutral Lousville would be around 10 points better than UConn, but they won by 30. Tennessee has vaulted up the KenPom rankings because they have won their last three by 38, 28, and 27 - much more than projected.

THIS!

That's why Kenpom, RPI, BPI, etc are ALL flawed. Even if you average them all together there would STILL be things that stood out.

But it's all we have to go by, so all you can do is win games and see what happens.

(03-10-2014 12:04 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

LMAO he's got the same moves I had last week during the last 5 minutes of the Louisville game

(03-10-2014 02:00 PM)LegolElf Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 01:49 PM)TigerBCL Wrote:  We were #9 in KenPom in 2012 and got an 8 seed. The computers love Louisville because when they are better than someone that absolutely crush them. That is pretty much what we did in 2012 and the computers loved us. The pretty much any of these systems work is that a projected outcome is generated based on performance to that point, and if a team consistently outperform the projection that team will move up. We have underperfomed the projections in most of our wins while Louisville has outperformed. KenPom says that on a neutral Lousville would be around 10 points better than UConn, but they won by 30. Tennessee has vaulted up the KenPom rankings because they have won their last three by 38, 28, and 27 - much more than projected.

THIS!

That's why Kenpom, RPI, BPI, etc are ALL flawed. Even if you average them all together there would STILL be things that stood out.

But it's all we have to go by, so all you can do is win games and see what happens.

I believe they are good systems, but they do have limits. Part of the reason for our low KenPom rating is a poor defensive rating relative to what we were the past two years. I don't think anyone that has watched this team play would argue with that. They have won big gemas by guarding great late in the game, but over the course of the season they have been bad defensively. The system expects the performance to be what a team does most of the time. Louisville has crushed most teams it has played. Against the KenPom Top 50 they are 5-5 with average win by 13.4 points and average loss by 6.2. Against non top-50 they are 21-0 with the average win by 27.8 points. We are 5-7 against KenPom top 50 with the average win by 6.4 and the average loss by 11.7. Against nontop 50 we are 18-1 with the average win by 15.7. Louisville had 1 non-top 50 game in single digits with no losses. We had 5 non-top 50 games in single digits and lost one of them. Our qulatiy wins per KenPom are better (2,2,19,21,26) versus (18,26,26,30,30) and our losses (not counting Houston which is terrible) are better (average rank of 20.6 vs average of 28.0) although we have two more. Qualitatively there is not much difference between what we have accomplished and what Lousiville has accomplished, but quantitatively there is a big difference in how it has been accomplished. This is very much relfected in the RPI numbers where Louisville is 22 and we are 29. Without the awful Houston loss our RPI would be around the same or better than Louisville.

(03-10-2014 11:53 AM)LegolElf Wrote:  The only reason Louisville is #5 is because they are killing teams "not named Memphis" lately.

Are they really "that" good? #5 good? I just don't see it.

I think Tiger fans could be under estimating Louisville because we beat them twice. They are better than Nova is is ranked 3 or 4?

The problem with the rankings is that nobody is great. You could mix up the top 20 or 30, draw 2 names out of the hat, and one could beat the other on any given night, on a neutral court. I'm not sure I ever recall a season quite like this one.

Bracket pool bets are going to be hilarious this year.

For that matter, the nit is going to be filled with teams that could win it all. Ok state, Kentucky, Missouri, ole miss, utk...

(03-10-2014 05:37 PM)TripleA Wrote:  The problem with the rankings is that nobody is great. You could mix up the top 20 or 30, draw 2 names out of the hat, and one could beat the other on any given night, on a neutral court. I'm not sure I ever recall a season quite like this one.

Bracket pool bets are going to be hilarious this year.

With these new AAC rankings do you still think our ceiling is a 4 seed?

(03-10-2014 05:44 PM)holyterror Wrote:  For that matter, the nit is going to be filled with teams that could win it all. Ok state, Kentucky, Missouri, ole miss, utk...

Bracket Matrix- NIT.

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Top seeds: Florida State, Cal, Nebraska, Georgetown

Other notables:
St. Johns 2 seed
Mizzou 2
LSU 3
Southern Miss 3
Marquette 3
Illinois 4
Indiana 4
Maryland 5
NC State 5
Indiana State 7
Mississippi 8 seed in the NIT

(03-10-2014 05:37 PM)TripleA Wrote:  The problem with the rankings is that nobody is great. You could mix up the top 20 or 30, draw 2 names out of the hat, and one could beat the other on any given night, on a neutral court. I'm not sure I ever recall a season quite like this one.

Bracket pool bets are going to be hilarious this year.

I usually do decent in the pools I get in but there is always that one person that kills it.. This year will be really hard to pick.. This is the 1st year I can remember to where there really isn't a dominate team and there is so much parity in the game..Usually you can figure on about 4 or 5 teams that could possibly win it all but this year I really think it could be one of 15 or 20 teams that could win it all..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(03-10-2014 05:55 PM)Mimi Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 05:44 PM)holyterror Wrote:  For that matter, the nit is going to be filled with teams that could win it all. Ok state, Kentucky, Missouri, ole miss, utk...

Bracket Matrix- NIT.

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Top seeds: Florida State, Cal, Nebraska, Georgetown

Other notables:
St. Johns 2 seed
Mizzou 2
LSU 3
Southern Miss 3
Marquette 3
Illinois 4
Indiana 4
Maryland 5
NC State 5
Indiana State 7
Mississippi 8 seed in the NIT

That guy is filled with more %$#$ than the Christmas goose. Has UK a 6 seed in the NCAA and has Arkansas in even though they have only won 3 road games all year and got a hole stomped in them at Bama. Only reason they are considered is they beat a group of under performing players with UK on their jersey twice. If UK got the seeding they deserve they could be out game 1 this year. They are NOT a team but a group of players just playing out season so the NBA will call.

Cannot understand Florida wins SEC by 6 games. Then you have 2 teams tied for second. For that reason some believe they deserve4 bids. Yet C-USA has 4 teams tied for first two already having 25 wins. But it is a 1 bid conference.

(03-10-2014 12:44 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 12:16 PM)hollywoodTiger Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 11:59 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 11:52 AM)BIGGESTTIGERJLB Wrote:  Told y'all

What a fabulous league


Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

Did you just use the word "fabulous?"

Ha.

Grow up.

Huh?

Must have had a broken sarcasm meter.

(03-10-2014 10:00 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 05:55 PM)Mimi Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 05:44 PM)holyterror Wrote:  For that matter, the nit is going to be filled with teams that could win it all. Ok state, Kentucky, Missouri, ole miss, utk...

Bracket Matrix- NIT.

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Top seeds: Florida State, Cal, Nebraska, Georgetown

Other notables:
St. Johns 2 seed
Mizzou 2
LSU 3
Southern Miss 3
Marquette 3
Illinois 4
Indiana 4
Maryland 5
NC State 5
Indiana State 7
Mississippi 8 seed in the NIT

That guy is filled with more %$#$ than the Christmas goose. Has UK a 6 seed in the NCAA and has Arkansas in even though they have only won 3 road games all year and got a hole stomped in them at Bama. Only reason they are considered is they beat a group of under performing players with UK on their jersey twice. If UK got the seeding they deserve they could be out game 1 this year. They are NOT a team but a group of players just playing out season so the NBA will call.

Cannot understand Florida wins SEC by 6 games. Then you have 2 teams tied for second. For that reason some believe they deserve4 bids. Yet C-USA has 4 teams tied for first two already having 25 wins. But it is a 1 bid conference.

Remind me never to go to a holiday dinner at ncrdbl1's house.