For as long as there has been bracketology and "the bubble", there were good teams in bad leagues, teams who had earned a bid and a decent seed and were favored to win their conference tournament, but sometimes there were upsets. Bubble watchers had to keep half an eye on the one-bid league tournaments, because if a Gonzaga or a Memphis or a Butler or a VCU lost, it would "shrink the bubble" by one.

That may be over. With the recent wave of realignment, the lower-level leagues were hit pretty hard. It's not discussed as much, because they're lower profile leagues than the FBS leagues or the Big East or the A-10. The Missouri Valley lost Creighton, the Horizon lost Butler, the CAA lost a bunch of teams, the SoCon is losing Davidson, etc.

Looking at Lunardi's ESPN bracketology, 10 conferences have 2 or more bids. Only one school (Wichita State) from outside those 10 conferences has a seed above 11. Southern Miss is a #11, UW-Green Bay and BYU are #12's. If they don't win their conference tournaments, I think the committee may have a hard time putting them in over an also-ran from a top league. (Yes, like St Johns, or Minnesota or NC State or Tennessee or Oregon.)

(03-03-2014 06:38 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  For as long as there has been bracketology and "the bubble", there were good teams in bad leagues, teams who had earned a bid and a decent seed and were favored to win their conference tournament, but sometimes there were upsets. Bubble watchers had to keep half an eye on the one-bid league tournaments, because if a Gonzaga or a Memphis or a Butler or a VCU lost, it would "shrink the bubble" by one.

That may be over. With the recent wave of realignment, the lower-level leagues were hit pretty hard. It's not discussed as much, because they're lower profile leagues than the FBS leagues or the Big East or the A-10. The Missouri Valley lost Creighton, the Horizon lost Butler, the CAA lost a bunch of teams, the SoCon is losing Davidson, etc.

Looking at Lunardi's ESPN bracketology, 10 conferences have 2 or more bids. Only one school (Wichita State) from outside those 10 conferences has a seed above 11. Southern Miss is a #11, UW-Green Bay and BYU are #12's. If they don't win their conference tournaments, I think the committee may have a hard time putting them in over an also-ran from a top league. (Yes, like St Johns, or Minnesota or NC State or Tennessee or Oregon.)

I wouldn't say the lower level leagues were the ones hit hard- but it's the mid-tier ones that were hit really hard. Ones like the CAA, MVC, Horizon, and somewhat the A-10. The lower tier ones never were getting 2 teams in almost 100% of the time(yes, I know the MAAC got 2 in a few years ago).

Also, as a point of fact- BYU is in the WCC(Gonzaga's conference).

Southern Miss would/will be a real fascinating case should they not win their conference.

(03-03-2014 06:38 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  For as long as there has been bracketology and "the bubble", there were good teams in bad leagues, teams who had earned a bid and a decent seed and were favored to win their conference tournament, but sometimes there were upsets. Bubble watchers had to keep half an eye on the one-bid league tournaments, because if a Gonzaga or a Memphis or a Butler or a VCU lost, it would "shrink the bubble" by one.

That may be over. With the recent wave of realignment, the lower-level leagues were hit pretty hard. It's not discussed as much, because they're lower profile leagues than the FBS leagues or the Big East or the A-10. The Missouri Valley lost Creighton, the Horizon lost Butler, the CAA lost a bunch of teams, the SoCon is losing Davidson, etc.

Looking at Lunardi's ESPN bracketology, 10 conferences have 2 or more bids. Only one school (Wichita State) from outside those 10 conferences has a seed above 11. Southern Miss is a #11, UW-Green Bay and BYU are #12's. If they don't win their conference tournaments, I think the committee may have a hard time putting them in over an also-ran from a top league. (Yes, like St Johns, or Minnesota or NC State or Tennessee or Oregon.)

Until two strong teams play in an otherwise bad conference .

Stever20: I suppose the lowest-level leagues weren't hit hard, because they didn't have anyone worth poaching. If you want to separate the "mid-tier" Horizon and Colonial from the bottom-tier Ohio Valley and MAAC, that's fair.

I included BYU because they're the second WCC team, in that #12 "barely in the Tournament" spot. So if someone other than Gonzaga or BYU wins the WCC, Gonzaga drops down a few spots from a No. 8 seed to a 9 or 10, while giving BYU a loss outside the RPI top 50. It also dings Gonzaga's RPI, taking a bit of shine off of BYU's win over Gonzaga.

Although BYU still has wins over Stanford and Texas, plus Gonzaga and the WCC champ, so maybe they're safe.

And MJG, if you have two good teams, in this landscape that means you're a Top-Ten conference.

The A-10 is projected by USA Today to be a SIX bid conference ... that's higher than all but two conferences, which doesn't seem to be too hurt by alignment.


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(03-04-2014 09:32 AM)IceJus10 Wrote:  The A-10 is projected by USA Today to be a SIX bid conference ... that's higher than all but two conferences, which doesn't seem to be too hurt by alignment.

Not yet ... though two of those six are subject to ongoing realignment speculation ... but in the terms of the OP, A-10 has been a top ten conference for a while now, so it wouldn't be included in the OP's "lower-level leagues".

It's almost as if you could take the 10 football conferences, add the Big East, A10 and WCC, and form a new super division.

You'd only be missing out on Wichita St, Harvard, North Dakota St, Stephen F Austin, Green Bay and maybe Belmont among the top 64 teams in the nation this year. And I am sure Wichita St could find a home in the American, A10 etc.

Consolidation among conferences has killed the Valley, the WAC, the Horizon and the Colonial. Not to mention the SWC, Great Midwest and Metro.