TeamRankings gives the Bucs a 1.87% chance to win the A-Sun tournament.

Here's their breakdown:

Mercer: 70.48% chance to win
FGCU: 18.40%
USC Upstate: 7.88%
ETSU: 1.87%
North Florida: .65%
Lipscomb: .59%
Jacksonville: .1%
Stetson: .03%

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/conferen...n-bracket/

(02-28-2014 11:59 PM)BucSinceTheSixties Wrote:  TeamRankings gives the Bucs a 1.87% chance to win the A-Sun tournament.

Here's their breakdown:

Mercer: 70.48% chance to win
FGCU: 18.40%
USC Upstate: 7.88%
ETSU: 1.87%
North Florida: .65%
Lipscomb: .59%
Jacksonville: .1%
Stetson: .03%

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/conferen...n-bracket/

Those numbers look pretty accurate. The home court advantage is huge. Plus those teams with the home court are just plain better than the ones who do not.

FGCU should now be odds on favorite to win -

They currently hold the tiebreaker over Mercer, thanks to USCU's win over the Bucs. They only have to beat Northern Kentucky at their place to be seeded #1 and have home court advantage throughout.

So Mercer will, most likely, have to beat Jacksonville, USCU (who has beaten them once and taken them to overtime, and is on a roll) and FGCU in Fort Myers to win. NOT a favorable draw.

Updated on TeamRankings:

ETSU has been lowered to having a 1.59% chance of winning the conference championship.

Mercer 54.86% chance of winning championship
FGCU 35.57%
USCU 7.51%
ETSU 1.59%

I wonder how they get those numbers? They clearly don't acknowledge any "X" factors. http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/conferen...n-bracket/