Let me take a shot at the most likely tie breakers:

If Mercer and FGCU win out (which they should since Stetson and NKU are a cut below Lipscomb and UNF – but who the heck knows after such putrid performances) they would have identical records. They split their season series. So top seed would depend on who wins the USCU-ETSU game. Bucs win and its Mercer (who beat us twice). USCU wins and its FGCU (who beat them twice).

If Bucs win over USCU (leaving Mercer 1st, FGCU 2nd, ETSU 3rd) then 4th seed would be UNF (2 wins over Mercer!!) over 5th USCU (1 win over Mercer) over 6th Lipscomb (2 losses to Mercer).

If USCU wins over ETSU (leaving FGCU 1st, Mercer 2nd, USCU 3rd) then 4th seed would be Lipscomb (1 win over FGCU, 2 losses to Mercer, 1 win over USCU), 5th ETSU (1 win over FGCU, 2 losses to Mercer, 2 loses to USCU) and 6th UNF (2 losses to ETSU).

So right now the Bucs are looking at a Lipscomb game Tuesday. Either at home (if they beat USCU) or on the road (if they lose).
My head hurts too much to do the other alternatives (if Lipscomb loses, or UNF loses, or both lose).

Let me know if this sounds right.

Ok, here's the rest of it -

If ETSU loses, Lipscomb loses, but UNF wins, then we are 4th, UNF is 5th (1 game better than Lipscomb, but 2 losses to the Bucs) and Lipscomb is 6th (record is 1 game worse than ETSU or UNF). We get a home game vs UNF on Tuesday.

If ETSU loses, UNF loses and Lipscomb wins, then Lipscomb is 4th (1 win over USCU), we are 5th (2 losses to USCU) and UNF is 6th (with 1 more loss). We play Lipscomb in Nashville Tuesday.

If ETSU loses, UNF loses and Lipscomb loses, then we are 4th (1 game better record than UNF or LIpscomb), Lipscomb is 5th (1 win over FGCU) and UNF is 6th (2 losses to FGCU). The Bucs get a home game versus Lipscomb.

At this point, I think that's correct.

Nice work on the scenarios SWVA. Mercer is in desperate need of an ETSU win tomorrow. Here's my quick opinions on the tourney from a Mercer viewpoint:

Stetson is the only "gimme" in the tourney. Making it that much more important to get that #1 seed.

The #2 seed road is MUCH more difficult than #1.

In my opinion the least desirable opponents for Mercer are 1) Upstate, 2) FGCU, 3) North Florida

Mercer DOES match up well against Lipscomb, ETSU, and Jacksonville (with one test still pending)

ETSU wins and Mercer could play Stetson, ETSU/Lipscomb, and FGCU

Upstate wins and Mercer could play JAX, Upstate, and then FGCU. (TOUGH... but still winnable).

This game @Upstate is a game ETSU really needs, and I think they will get it.

(02-28-2014 12:29 AM)MercerFan Wrote:  Nice work on the scenarios SWVA. Mercer is in desperate need of an ETSU win tomorrow. Here's my quick opinions on the tourney from a Mercer viewpoint:

Stetson is the only "gimme" in the tourney. Making it that much more important to get that #1 seed.

The #2 seed road is MUCH more difficult than #1.

In my opinion the least desirable opponents for Mercer are 1) Upstate, 2) FGCU, 3) North Florida

Mercer DOES match up well against Lipscomb, ETSU, and Jacksonville (with one test still pending)

ETSU wins and Mercer could play Stetson, ETSU/Lipscomb, and FGCU

Upstate wins and Mercer could play JAX, Upstate, and then FGCU. (TOUGH... but still winnable).

This game @Upstate is a game ETSU really needs, and I think they will get it.

I sure hope you are right MercerFan!

A loss to Stetson earlier in the season may come back to haunt us, this seems to be a theme.

Lipscomb wins but UNF up 8 at half

UNF wins. Mercer wins. FGCU wins.