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2014 MBB Tiebreakers
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DadofTwins Offline
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Post: #1
2014 MBB Tiebreakers
Things are still quite murky and unsettled with a week to go.

Here's what we know:

Mercer & FGCU will be 1 & 2 in some order.

The winner of ETSU/Upstate will be 3.

Stetson and Kennesaw can be no higher than 8.

Seed line matters more this year than past years because conferecne tournament games are hosted by the better-seeded team.

Team-by-team:

Mercer can finish no lower than 2nd. To finish first, they need to either beat FGCU outright or have ETSU beat Upstate on Friday. A loss this weekend means FGCU is the 1-seed with 2 wins. 2 losses means FGCU only needs a split.

FGCU is in the same boat as Mercer. The 1 seed is theirs with 2 wins and some help (Upstate over ETSU, or Mercer losing one). Otherwise they're the 2.

USC-Upstate is third with a win Friday over ETSU. Lose and they are probably 4, unless something weird happens. (USCU loses AND Lispcomb beats FGCU AND Lipscomb beats Stetson AND UNF beats Mercer AND Jacksonville beats Mercer AND Kennesaw beats UNF) makes Lipscomb the 4 and Upstate drops to 5.

ETSU is third with a win over Upstate Friday. If they lose, Lipscomb can drop them to fifth with 2 wins and a UNF loss. Otherwise, ETSU is 4th.

Lipscomb has a shot at 4th with 2 wins, but they'll need a lot of help (see above). To finish 5th, they need 2 wins OR (win over FGCU + 2 Mercer losses + 2 Kennesaw wins). Otherwise a split this weekend leaves them 6th. They could also finish 7th with 2 losses + (UNF and Jacksonville each win once OR if Jacksonville wins twice).

North Florida can finish no higher than 5th, and no lower than 6th. They get there with 2 wins + at least one Lipscomb loss. There is also a scenario where Jacksonville gets the 5 even with 1 UNF win (see below). Lipscomb can also poach the 5th spot in the one-win scenario above. Any other scenario where UNF splits the weekend leaves them 5th. Two losses leave them 6th, unless Lipscomb also loses twice AND Jacksonville loses once.

Jacksonville has an outside shot at the 5. They need 2 wins + 2 Lipscomb losses + UNF loss to Mercer. They also get the 5 with 2 wins + 1 Lipscomb loss + 2 UNF losses. Jackonsville can also finish 6th with 1 win + 1 UNF win + 2 Lipscomb losses. All other scenarios (including the remaining scenarios where they win twice but don't get enough help) leave them 7th.

Stetson is no higher than 8th. They lose a tiebreaker to Jacksonville at 7-11 (because Jacksonville has a win over FGCU). They win a 2-way tiebreaker with Kennesaw at 5-13 (because Kennesaw's best wins are over USC-U and UNF. Stetson also beat USC-U, and their next-best win is over ETSU, who is guaranteed to finish ahead of UNF), but strangely, if Northern Kentucky also finishes 5-13, that 3-way tie goes to Kennesaw based on head-to-head records (Northern Kentucky 3-1, Kennesaw 2-2, Stetson 1-3).

Kennesaw State can tie for 8th with 2 wins and 2 Stetson losses, but for that to matter they also need Northern Kentucky to lose to FGCU to create a 3-way tie. Otherwise, they're out.

I think all of this is right, but if I get word otherwise I'll fix this post accordingly.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2014 03:39 AM by DadofTwins.)
02-25-2014 02:12 PM
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LUGSUMU Offline
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Post: #2
RE: 2014 MBB Tiebreakers
Tie Breakers:
Mercer/FGSU- If ETSU wins against upstate Mercer gets the 1 seed, if Upstate wins FGCU gets it.
ETSU/UPstate-This is for the 3 spot.
5/6- if Lipscomb and UNF both win it goes to the tie breaker
Jville most likely at 7
Stetson finishes no higher than 8 but could fall out with some weird scenario that is highly unlikely with KSU winning 2 and stetson losing 2 and NKU losing.
KSU most likely out.
NKU ineligible.
02-26-2014 08:57 AM
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Statman101 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: 2014 MBB Tiebreakers
KSU is completely out because while it has a win over USC Upstate so does Stetson and the Hatters have a win over ETSU who can't finish behind UNF or Jacksonville which is the only possibility of another win for KSU.
02-26-2014 12:08 PM
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DadofTwins Offline
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RE: 2014 MBB Tiebreakers
(02-26-2014 12:08 PM)Statman101 Wrote:  KSU is completely out because while it has a win over USC Upstate so does Stetson and the Hatters have a win over ETSU who can't finish behind UNF or Jacksonville which is the only possibility of another win for KSU.

You are correct about a two-way tie between Stetson and Kennesaw.

But a 3-way tie between NKU, Kennesaw, and Stetson would be resolved based first on head-to-head records. That would put NKU 8th, Kennesaw 9th, and Stetson 10th. Then, since NKU is ineligible, Kennesaw gets their spot.

Thus, if NKU wins twice or loses twice, Stetson is in no matter what. But if NKU splits (beating Stetson and losing to FGCU), Stetson would need to beat Lipscomb or have Kennesaw lose one to clinch.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2014 12:40 PM by DadofTwins.)
02-26-2014 12:36 PM
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LUGSUMU Offline
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Post: #5
RE: 2014 MBB Tiebreakers
that was what I was getting at. You just explained it a lot better that I did. Thanks!
02-26-2014 02:43 PM
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DadofTwins Offline
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RE: 2014 MBB Tiebreakers
Just watched the end of UNF-Mercer.

Here's where we stand:

No change between Mercer & FGCU, as both lost. They're still 1 & 2, and which team wins the potential tiebreaker will be determined by tomorrow night's ETSU-Upstate game.

Jacksonville still has an outside shot at the 6. Lipscomb can still end up anywhere between 4 and 7.

Stetson got curb-stomped by Northern Kentucky, but Kennesaw lost a close one to Jacksonville, so Stetson is now locked in as the 8.

Here are the scenarios left:

For Mercer to be a 1-seed: (WIN + ETSU win) OR (ETSU win + Northern Kentucky win)

Otherwise they're the 2.

For FGCU to be the 1-seed: (WIN + USC-U win) OR (USC-U win + Jacksonville win)

Otherwise they're the 2.

For ETSU to be the 3, WIN.
For ETSU to be the 5, LOSS + Kennesaw win + Lipscomb win.

Otherwise, they're the 4.

For USC-U to be the 3, WIN
For USC-U to be the 5, LOSS + Lipscomb win + Jacksonville win + Kennesaw win

Otherwise, they're the 4.

For Lipscomb to be the 4, WIN + Kennesaw win + EITHER ETSU win OR (USC-U win + Jacksonville win)
For Lipscomb to be the 6, (LOSS + Kennesaw win + Jacksonville win) OR (LOSS + ETSU win + Mercer win) OR (LOSS + USC-U win + Northern Kentucky win) OR (LOSS + UNF win + Mercer win)
For Lipscomb to be the 7, LOSS + Jacksonville win + UNF win

Otherwise, Lipscomb is the 5.

A Lipscomb win makes North Florida the 6. North Florida can also fall to 6 with a LOSS + Stetson win + Mercer win + USC-U win + FGCU win.

Otherwise, North Florida is the 5.

For Jacksonville to be the 6, WIN + Stetson win + UNF win

Otherwise, Jacksonville is the 7.

Stetson is the 8 no matter what happens.

Kennesaw is out.

Again, I'm pretty sure this is right, but if somebody has better information I'll correct it.

Also, I think the A-Sun still has the rule that if there's a tie for the regular season title, the automatic NIT bid goes to the team that advances farthest (furthest?) in the conference tournament.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2014 03:14 AM by DadofTwins.)
02-27-2014 11:12 PM
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Statman101 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: 2014 MBB Tiebreakers
The overall key for Lipscomb and UNF is which team is in first. If FGCU is in first, the tie-breaker goes to Lipscomb. If Mercer is in first, the tie-breaker goes to UNF. If there is a three-way tie, UNF wins because it was 3-1 against LU and JU. Its long and complicated but will clear up some more tonight.
02-28-2014 03:20 PM
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DadofTwins Offline
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RE: 2014 MBB Tiebreakers
(02-28-2014 03:20 PM)Statman101 Wrote:  The overall key for Lipscomb and UNF is which team is in first. If FGCU is in first, the tie-breaker goes to Lipscomb. If Mercer is in first, the tie-breaker goes to UNF. If there is a three-way tie, UNF wins because it was 3-1 against LU and JU. Its long and complicated but will clear up some more tonight.

This is correct for a tie at 9-9.

If the tie is at 10-8, Lipscomb gets the nod over UNF because, whoever loses the game for the 3-seed, both swept UNF. The loser would be 3-1 H2H, Lipscomb 2-2, and UNF 1-3.
02-28-2014 09:22 PM
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DadofTwins Offline
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RE: 2014 MBB Tiebreakers
Updated Friday night:

Upstate wins, so they're the 3, and will host either Lipscomb, Jacksonville, or UNF.

ETSU finishes 10-8 and will play in the 4-5 game. Where that game will be remains to be seen. Johnson City is still most likely, but there's an outside shot they'll have to travel to Nashville.

FGCU is in the driver's seat for the 1-seed. Hold serve against Northern Kentucky and they have home court throughout, plus a potential automatic NIT bid.

Here are the scenarios left:

For Mercer to be a 1-seed: (WIN + Northern Kentucky win)

Otherwise they're the 2.

For FGCU to be the 1-seed: WIN OR Jacksonville win

Otherwise they're the 2.

USC-Upstate is the 3.

For ETSU to be the 5, Kennesaw win + Lipscomb win.

Otherwise, they're the 4.

For Lipscomb to be the 4, WIN + Kennesaw win + Jacksonville win
For Lipscomb to be the 6, (LOSS + Kennesaw win + Jacksonville win) OR (LOSS + USC-U win + Northern Kentucky win) OR (LOSS + UNF win + Mercer win)
For Lipscomb to be the 7, LOSS + Jacksonville win + UNF win

Otherwise, Lipscomb is the 5.

A Lipscomb win makes North Florida the 6. North Florida can also fall to 6 with a LOSS + Stetson win + Mercer win + FGCU win.

Otherwise, North Florida is the 5.

For Jacksonville to be the 6, WIN + Stetson win + UNF win

Otherwise, Jacksonville is the 7.

Stetson is the 8.

Kennesaw is out.
02-28-2014 09:36 PM
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