http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Playing California. Winner gets Cuse.

Beat Louisville and SMU at home...and we will be a 5-6 seed.

Lulz

(02-24-2014 12:21 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Playing California. Winner gets Cuse.

Hairy Palm has us as a 6 seed playing Oregon in his bracket. Not sure why but he has Cincinnati as a 2 seed and the bracket was done on Sunday well after Louisville beat Cincy.

Palm has Cincy a 2, Louisville a 5, Memphis a 6, UConn a 6, and SMU a 10.

How can a team ranked #21 be an 8 seed?

The difference between finishing 7-0 and 0-5 could be the difference between a 3/4 seed and a 10/11 seed.

Still plenty of time to move UP or DOWN.

(02-24-2014 12:41 PM)TigerTimmy Wrote:  How can a team ranked #21 be an 8 seed?

My guess is that he is factoring in us losing 3 or 4 more games in his prognostication.

(02-24-2014 12:41 PM)TigerTimmy Wrote:  How can a team ranked #21 be an 8 seed?

The polls have no relation to seeding.

So we went from a 6 seed prior to UConn game, to a 7 seed after UConn game, to beating both Rutgers and Temple and falling to an 8 seed? Yeah, he is SPOT ON! smh

I guess since Okie St and Gonzaga keep on losing he is devaluing those wins for us? And I'm sure most think us beating UL on road was a fluke.

Good thing is, Tigers have a chance to PROVE their worth over the next 3 weeks. It's ALL up to them. Nothing will be handed out.

(02-24-2014 12:48 PM)LegolElf Wrote:  Good thing is, Tigers have a chance to PROVE their worth over the next 3 weeks. It's ALL up to them. Nothing will be handed out.

Yup.

(02-24-2014 12:43 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(02-24-2014 12:41 PM)TigerTimmy Wrote:  How can a team ranked #21 be an 8 seed?

My guess is that he is factoring in us losing 3 or 4 more games in his prognostication.

Lunardi claims to not do projections, but simply ranks each team on performance to date.

(02-24-2014 12:59 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(02-24-2014 12:43 PM)3601 Wrote:  

(02-24-2014 12:41 PM)TigerTimmy Wrote:  How can a team ranked #21 be an 8 seed?

My guess is that he is factoring in us losing 3 or 4 more games in his prognostication.

Lunardi claims to not do projections, but simply ranks each team on performance to date.

How is unranked UCLA #5 seed?


He' even got GW and VCU as #8 seeds......... they didn't receive any votes!!

I stopped paying attention to anything that Lunardi had to say a long time ago.

Beat Houston, and find a way to go 2-1 against Louisville, Cincy, and SMU. Do that and you're 23-7, 15-3 in conference, no bad losses with 5 wins against top 50 teams. Do that and we've got a 5 seed. Beat Houston and drop the last three and we would be as high as a 9-10 seed. Either scenario is possible, just depends on who shows up.

I don't buy Lunardi's seeding, even as of today.

But...


If we were an 8 seed and faced Cuse in the round of 32, how would that affect the expectations of those who think this season is defined by sweet 16 or bust?

I for one continue to hold to my position on probability. The only teams that should expect to be in the sweet 16 are 1 or 2 seeds. For everyone else, the odds favor "the field."

The reason for that is that there are so many factors in play, from parity in mid range seeding to luck in game play, officiating, etc. They call it madness for a reason.

Thinking that a sweet 16 is very possible is one thing. I think our ceiling is higher than that. But expecting it is another thing. And if you have to go through a 1 or 2 seed it is possible, but it is the most difficult road, and expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

(02-24-2014 02:09 PM)gotigers1 Wrote:  I stopped paying attention to anything that Lunardi had to say a long time ago.

Yep.

(02-24-2014 02:26 PM)lenetzach Wrote:  I don't buy Lunardi's seeding, even as of today.

But...


If we were an 8 seed and faced Cuse in the round of 32, how would that affect the expectations of those who think this season is defined by sweet 16 or bust?

I for one continue to hold to my position on probability. The only teams that should expect to be in the sweet 16 are 1 or 2 seeds. For everyone else, the odds favor "the field."

The reason for that is that there are so many factors in play, from parity in mid range seeding to luck in game play, officiating, etc. They call it madness for a reason.

Thinking that a sweet 16 is very possible is one thing. I think our ceiling is higher than that. But expecting it is another thing. And if you have to go through a 1 or 2 seed it is possible, but it is the most difficult road, and expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

I will preface this by saying that I think Lunardi is off with the 8 seed (esp if it is based upon where Memphis is now).

But, if Memphis drops two of the last four and the first game in the AAC tourney, then they could be staring at an 8/9 seed.

So, my response to the bolded part is that Memphis didn't live up to expectations in the regular season to put itself in a postion to advance to the S16, so in effect, the season was a disappointment. I think, if Memphis were to lose 3 of the next 5 games and end up 23-9 on selection sunday that would mean Memphis lost three home games and a home(neutral) game.

(02-24-2014 02:49 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(02-24-2014 02:26 PM)lenetzach Wrote:  I don't buy Lunardi's seeding, even as of today.

But...


If we were an 8 seed and faced Cuse in the round of 32, how would that affect the expectations of those who think this season is defined by sweet 16 or bust?

I for one continue to hold to my position on probability. The only teams that should expect to be in the sweet 16 are 1 or 2 seeds. For everyone else, the odds favor "the field."

The reason for that is that there are so many factors in play, from parity in mid range seeding to luck in game play, officiating, etc. They call it madness for a reason.

Thinking that a sweet 16 is very possible is one thing. I think our ceiling is higher than that. But expecting it is another thing. And if you have to go through a 1 or 2 seed it is possible, but it is the most difficult road, and expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

I will preface this by saying that I think Lunardi is off with the 8 seed (esp if it is based upon where Memphis is now).

But, if Memphis drops two of the last four and the first game in the AAC tourney, then they could be staring at an 8/9 seed.

So, my response to the bolded part is that Memphis didn't live up to expectations in the regular season to put itself in a postion to advance to the S16, so in effect, the season was a disappointment. I think, if Memphis were to lose 3 of the next 5 games and end up 23-9 on selection sunday that would mean Memphis lost three home games and a home(neutral) game.

I would say Memphis not making the S16 would be a disappointment (not a failure, this team has done too much to make this year a failure, we have a top half finish in a top 4 league and a NCAA bid in our hands likely even if we lose out). But a disappointment, definitely.

I think 8/9 is way off right now. I think we are 1 6/7 right now.

BTW, if we get Cuse in Buffalo, that is a likely big loss. There are two ways to beat the Cuse (and I likely watch more Cuse than anyone on this board), outboard them (unlikely for us) or beat them from 3 (incredibly unlikely for us).

If we get Cuse, we need Shaq and Nichols to wear out the elbow on cuts to the soft underbelly of the 2-3. I have no doubt we can get some shots along the baseline with hi/low, but we likely won't shoot well enough to shake the zone up. Plus their style of play is predicated on not allowing fast breaks, neutralizing the speed advantage we would have against the Orange.

I don't the Orange are THAT much better, I just think it is a very poor match up for us. And if we were to lose that game, I would NEVER hear the end of it...

(02-24-2014 12:56 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(02-24-2014 12:48 PM)LegolElf Wrote:  Good thing is, Tigers have a chance to PROVE their worth over the next 3 weeks. It's ALL up to them. Nothing will be handed out.

Yup.

Win out and this seed can go up ALOT!

Beat Houston, beat UofL (home), UofC (road), and SMU (home), plus the 3 games in the conf tourney?

28-6 with wins over three ranked teams and a conference title? That could be a 3 seed!

Even if we go 3-1 (beat Houston, split 'Ville/Cincy, beat SMU) and make the conference finals…

26-8? That would be a likely 5 seed…

With our closing kick there is a lot of opportunity. Our seed range is likely a 3 (win out) to a play-in 12 (lose out).

Exciting stuff. High variance possibilities.