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Guess what? CC beat Denver, so we're in 4th heading into that series with Denver.

t1. NoDak (39 pts)
t1. St. Cloud St (39 pts)
3. Nebraska-Omaha (33 pts)
4. Western Michigan (31 pts)
5. Denver (29 pts)
6. Minn-Duluth (28 pts)
7. Colorado College (24 pts)
8. Miami (17 pts)

(02-22-2014 10:38 PM)Brown and Gold Wrote:  What did I say this morning? Don't freak out?

/looks at scores around the NCHC right now
NoDak 6 - 2 UMD [was tied for 5th with us]
CC 1 - 1 Denver (in the 2nd) [was 1 pt ahead for 4th]

Yup. And Denver is coming in town next weekend, so some separation possibility there.

UMD heads to Miami (who split with St. Cloud this weekend) before getting UNO at home to end the season. Denver hosts Miami to end their season. UNO hosts Colorado College next weekend.

and CC sweeps DU

This is crazy stuff. Parity anyone?

You don't think SCSU and/or ND are craping thier pants seeing Miami sitting in 8th place right now?

I predict a team not in the top 16 pair wise ends up winning the conference tournament

(02-23-2014 09:20 AM)BroncoFever Wrote:  You don't think SCSU and/or ND are craping thier pants seeing Miami sitting in 8th place right now?

I predict a team not in the top 16 pair wise ends up winning the conference tournament

Watch it be Miami.

Which reminds me, we can't finish last now this season. The worst we can do is 7th. Yay, mathematics!

I also think there may be some logistical, mathematical probability that we can't finish in 7th, but I can't prove it.

However, there are three ways we can still win the regular season title. Obviously, this requires us to win out:
(1) St Cloud and NoDak split next weekend, St. Cloud is swept on final weekend (@ CC)
(2) St. Cloud takes 4 of 6 points next weekend, St. Cloud is swept on final weekend
(3) St. Cloud and NoDak split next weekend, St. Cloud takes 1 of 6 points on final weekend

Unless #1 happens to be a double shoot-out split, we can't hope for a 3-way tie with NoDak and SCSU since NoDak would have 14 ROW (the best we can do is 13). If it does happen, then we can go for 11 of 12 points (5 of 6 this coming weekend) and then here's how the three team tie-break would play out:

Step 1: ROW wins (13 apiece for WMU and NoDak, SCSU gets 3rd)
Step 2: ROW wins again (arbitrary "begins again")
Step 3: Winning % head-to-head (.500)
Step 4: Goal differential head-to-head.

Well, we lost 3-2 both games in December. If we were to sweep NoDak, I'm willing to be we'd get an empty netter at least one of the nights to push a game to +2. If not, then we move on......

Step 5: Winning % against rest of teams, start at top

Oh hi St. Cloud!

Guess what? SCSU already has a sweep over NoDak. We went .750 against them. That double shoot-out split would put NoDak at .250 against them.

SCIENCE!

If we straight-up tie St. Cloud, they can win 1 regulation game, but that'd have to be Option 2. Obviously, we own the head-to-head there though.

But the odds of this happening are very slim. Again, we have to take care of business straight up and hope for a miracle. NoDak has yet to go to a shoot-out in conference play this season, so hoping for two (or Option #2) is tough.

Dream big though, right?

(02-22-2014 11:32 PM)Brown and Gold Wrote:  Guess what? CC beat Denver, so we're in 4th heading into that series with Denver.

t1. NoDak (39 pts)
t1. St. Cloud St (39 pts)
3. Nebraska-Omaha (33 pts)
4. Western Michigan (31 pts)
5. Denver (29 pts)
6. Minn-Duluth (28 pts)
7. Colorado College (24 pts)
8. Miami (17 pts)

Well it appears to be a 3 horse race between WMU, DU & UMD for the final spot to host the first round.

Nodaks and Cloud have 2 of the spots locked up. I don't see UNO losing the next 4 games, so I going to say they are in.

WMU
vs DU
@ ND

DU
@ WMU
vs Miami

UMD
@ Miami
vs UNO

(02-23-2014 11:00 AM)Brown and Gold Wrote:  

(02-23-2014 09:20 AM)BroncoFever Wrote:  You don't think SCSU and/or ND are craping thier pants seeing Miami sitting in 8th place right now?

I predict a team not in the top 16 pair wise ends up winning the conference tournament

Watch it be Miami.

Which reminds me, we can't finish last now this season. The worst we can do is 7th. Yay, mathematics!

I also think there may be some logistical, mathematical probability that we can't finish in 7th, but I can't prove it.

However, there are three ways we can still win the regular season title. Obviously, this requires us to win out:
(1) St Cloud and NoDak split next weekend, St. Cloud is swept on final weekend (@ CC)
(2) St. Cloud takes 4 of 6 points next weekend, St. Cloud is swept on final weekend
(3) St. Cloud and NoDak split next weekend, St. Cloud takes 1 of 6 points on final weekend

Unless #1 happens to be a double shoot-out split, we can't hope for a 3-way tie with NoDak and SCSU since NoDak would have 14 ROW (the best we can do is 13). If it does happen, then we can go for 11 of 12 points (5 of 6 this coming weekend) and then here's how the three team tie-break would play out:

Step 1: ROW wins (13 apiece for WMU and NoDak, SCSU gets 3rd)
Step 2: ROW wins again (arbitrary "begins again")
Step 3: Winning % head-to-head (.500)
Step 4: Goal differential head-to-head.

Well, we lost 3-2 both games in December. If we were to sweep NoDak, I'm willing to be we'd get an empty netter at least one of the nights to push a game to +2. If not, then we move on......

Step 5: Winning % against rest of teams, start at top

Oh hi St. Cloud!

Guess what? SCSU already has a sweep over NoDak. We went .750 against them. That double shoot-out split would put NoDak at .250 against them.

SCIENCE!

If we straight-up tie St. Cloud, they can win 1 regulation game, but that'd have to be Option 2. Obviously, we own the head-to-head there though.

But the odds of this happening are very slim. Again, we have to take care of business straight up and hope for a miracle. NoDak has yet to go to a shoot-out in conference play this season, so hoping for two (or Option #2) is tough.

Dream big though, right?

Almost, it's only a 1% chance we could get 7th. So, for all intents and purposes, we're gonna be 6th or better.

We still have a 14% chance of 3rd and 28% chance of 4th.

I'll have all the NCHC stats up in the weekly rankings post tomorrow.

You cheated. Cheating's bad mmm'kay?