(02-24-2014 04:02 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote: JMU should be a replacement for EMU, not an addition to. This expansion stuff is overrate with remaining targets sitting somewhere marginal and slightly above marginal. The real play would be to drop an EMU type which has shown very little on the field and in the stands for decades running now and give said marginal add a shot to improve the spot.
I'd plus 500 that if I could but I did go plus 3.
This is the core reason I believe the G5 is inherently unstable even if the P5 don't pull any teams up.
The MWC may be stable because there are no other schools in the Mountain Time Zone and west to combine with other than Idaho and NMSU as well as UTEP who has stated they think their future requires being aligned with other Texas schools.
But look at AAC.
UConn football member since 2004, Cincinnati since 2005, USF since 2005. Remaining nine added 2013 or later.
CUSA
USM 1995, UAB football since 1999 Rice 2005, Marshall 2005 UTEP 2005, remaining 9 added 2013 or later
Sun Belt four members added 2013 or later.
Those three leagues are in flux and all three have made additions that were at least in part in response to the campaigning of schools no longer in the league.
That leads to mismatches and I would say the MAC is also plagued by disconnects in philosophy and commitment to intercollegiate athletics.
History shows us numerous examples of conferences reaching a breaking point where a critical mass forms and either breaks as a complete group (Valley spawning Big 8, Southern spawning SEC and ACC, WAC breaking into MWC, the Pac-8 emerging out of disputes in the old PCC) or schools from various associations form a new league (Border and Rocky Mtn breaking up as schools defect to form WAC, the Great Midwest when a group of Metro schools became frustrated, Big East forming, CUSA forming out of Liberty Football Alliance, Metro and Great Midwest, American South now Sun Belt out of a group of frustrated Southland schools, and in reality the first formation of the Big XII born out of a joint venture of SWC and Big 8 to sell their TV rights).
I don't have a cogent guess as to who will be the group of schools and what will be the element binding them together but I think you nailed the cause, eventually leagues go out of balance.
In the Sun Belt the membership at one point was fairly well on the same page. Now we have UALR dropping down to 14 sports because of budget issues and ULM cut their already thin budget because of state finance issues, it's no accident the two dominate the bottom of the all-sport standings most years. Idaho was tagged along to reach our magic number of 12 much like UMass was the magic 14. I think the greatest risk to the Sun Belt's future isn't being raided, it's a group of schools becoming frustrated and bumping into another group of schools that feel similarly disaffected by their conference and aligning together.