I don't want to downplay the difficulty of playing Louisville - much less twice in one regular season - but I was checking their RPI, and they're ranked 36.

Louisville has beaten 3 teams in the top 50, and none ranked between 50 and 100. The Cards have beaten a total of SIX teams ranked 150 or better. The remainder are ranked below 150. Their four losses were all to teams ranked in the Top 50.

As defending national champs and a brand name in college basketball, they'll be invited to the tournament. But I have to wonder if their resume would be considered "bubblish" if they weren't Louisville.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketba.../teamId/97

For the record, I think UC goes down Saturday. Beating UL twice is a row is a very difficult task.

They haven't earned their accolades, but they're a good team and if you threw enough good teams in their path they'd win their fair share.

I hope we come out Saturday ready to take their best shot and with at least as much energy as we played with at their place.

Their resume isn't impressive. But their metrics are extremely impressive. Wouldn't be surprised to see them favored against us Saturday. Win and we will essentially lock up the conference title though.

(02-20-2014 12:01 AM)Overrated Wrote:  Their resume isn't impressive. But their metrics are extremely impressive. Wouldn't be surprised to see them favored against us Saturday. Win and we will essentially lock up the conference title though.

I wonder how much of that is Louisville blowing out inferior teams on a regular basis. Those games probably boost their averages a little.

(02-20-2014 04:01 AM)Flying Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-20-2014 12:01 AM)Overrated Wrote:  Their resume isn't impressive. But their metrics are extremely impressive. Wouldn't be surprised to see them favored against us Saturday. Win and we will essentially lock up the conference title though.

I wonder how much of that is Louisville blowing out inferior teams on a regular basis. Those games probably boost their averages a little.

Absolutely that's the case. The best metrics try to account for strength of opponent (as well as where you played) when evaluating your performance (ie a winning by 28 at UCF isn't nearly as impressive for UC as winning by 16 at Memphis). But there is still some debate as to how much being able to destroy poor competition means. Generally speaking though, the best teams are able to beat their opponents, especially poor competition, by a lot.

Louisville is interesting though because they haven't played too many good teams this year and their record against those good teams is mediocre given how good their metrics are. I'll just use conference play as an example of comparing UC and UL.

In conference, UL has scored 1.188 points per possession and only allowed 0.904 ppp. That is an efficiency margin of .284 which is really, really strong.

UC by contrast has scored 1.068 ppp and allowed 0.935 ppp in conference play for an efficiency margin of 0.133. That's strong but not incredible. It is important to note UC to date has played 9 games against the bottom half of the conference and 5 against the top half while UL has played 9 games against the bottom half but only 4 games against the top half.

What is interesting is their performance in those games against the top half of the conference: In those 4 games they have scored 280 points, allowed 269 points (+11 point differential) in 277 possessions. That's an efficiency margin of 0.040, with 3 of those 4 games coming at home.

In UC's 5 games against the top half of the conference, they have scored 321 points, allowed 310 points (same +11 point differential) in 322 possessions, for an efficiency margin of 0.034, with 3 of the 5 games coming on the road.

So in comparing the level of performance in high level games, the two teams are surprisingly similar (albeit in a small sample size of games), with UC having played the tougher schedule so far. There is just a huge gap in the level of performance against the bottom half of the league.

UofL is a good team but not great. They have the players to be great and it always seems like they hit another gear every year about this time. They will be dangerous from now til the end of basketball season is my guess.

I think louisville is the best team in the conference and one of the best 5 or 6 in the country. depending on their draw they are one of the teams I may pick to win it all. a sweep of them would be incredible.

Btw as good as they are (and the metrics reflect it) they do not have the resume to match it. they have not played a very strong schedule and they've not distinguished themselves against the good teams they have played.

(02-20-2014 07:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I think louisville is the best team in the conference and one of the best 5 or 6 in the country. depending on their draw they are one of the teams I may pick to win it all. a sweep of them would be incredible.

Btw as good as they are (and the metrics reflect it) they do not have the resume to match it. they have not played a very strong schedule and they've not distinguished themselves against the good teams they have played.

Mark. Hard not to agree with what you have stated.

I have major concerns about our Saturday game.

True, we don't have a great number of quality wins. However we have no bad losses. We have lost 4 games and that was against ranked opponents. We have smacked down everyone we were suppose to. While I don't think we are a top 5 team, I still think we are dangerous and this is the time of year where we typically hit our stride. Guess we will see how good we are Saturday and what could be our last meeting for a while unless we meet in the AAC.

I'm actually feeling pretty good about this one. 5/3 will be loud and crazy on Saturday. The team will be fired up and ready. They know how to play UofL. And they did beat them at Louisville.

I like that UC is getting points from just about every player now. Nobody is afraid to take a shot (which can be a bad thing - they just need to play smart). And the offense is looking better.

I think the key will be UC protecting the ball. They did not do a very good job in the first game but built a big enough lead that they withstood the turnovers (partly from Shaq playing big early, partly from SK getting big buckets when they needed them, partly from running as good of offense in the 2nd half as they did all year).

They turn the ball over that much this time around I don't seem them winning. To me that's the biggest focus area for this game.

I'll be surprised if Louisville gets away with all the hand checks and contact by their guards on the road @ 5th/3rd. If they call that closely, SK will break 2,000 points just at the free throw line and UC will win. I have a good feeling with the way the Bearcats are running offense (and of course defense) right now. Both teams are hot right now; advantage to the home team.

Will Louisville get away with all the flagrant pulling and grabbing they did to turn us over last time- on our own court?

(02-20-2014 08:34 AM)indycat Wrote:  I'll be surprised if Louisville gets away with all the hand checks and contact by their guards on the road @ 5th/3rd. If they call that closely, SK will break 2,000 points just at the free throw line and UC will win. I have a good feeling with the way the Bearcats are running offense (and of course defense) right now. Both teams are hot right now; advantage to the home team.

Whoops.

(02-20-2014 08:34 AM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  Will Louisville get away with all the flagrant pulling and grabbing they did to turn us over last time- on our own court?

I doubt it. We scored incredibly well against them in the half court at their place. We just struggled to get it there because of the amount of holding allowed. It was extremely frustrating at the time. I doubt that is allowed Saturday.

Their halfcourt defense is good, but their press is the best in college basketball. If it's a halfcourt game I think we win. Can't let them get easy baskets and loose balls and we can win.

records vs. RPI's

UofL
Top 100 :3-4
Top 50 : 3-4

UC

Top 100: 8-3
Top 50: 5-3

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...NCY/LVILLE

I won't disrespect Louisville. Their fans may prefer to be thought if as rivals of UK, but if they're honest about it, UC/UL in either football or ball has been an event for da*n near a decade now. UC/Pitt was similarly competitive over that time but has never had the same spark. I think the two programs make each other better, and need to find a way to keep that going.

No idea who will win on Sat, but guarantee it will be a war. It always is.

Louisville has talent and the ability to win against anyone. I expect another tough game, as most of them have been, in this series. Shoe should be rocking on Sat.

(02-20-2014 11:21 AM)bearcatmill Wrote:  Louisville has talent and the ability to win against anyone. I expect another tough game, as most of them have been, in this series. Shoe should be rocking on Sat.

Tom Gelehrter ‏@Tommy_G 7m
With Cincinnati/Louisville Part 2 now 48 hours out. When was last time 5/3 Arena hosted game this big in terms of team ranks & conf. title?