(02-20-2014 09:54 AM)Chappy Wrote: Admittedly, I don't follow women's basketball.... but I'm curious about how a conference with MTSU, UTEP, Southern Miss, East Carolina and Tulane all putting together good seasons can be 1-bid.
Is it a lack of good OOC wins?
I think a lot of fans become enamored with the simple number of wins. But most tournament caliber teams could rack up 25+ wins in the regular season by scheduling the way UTEP and ECU did. Thankfully, the selection committee isn't made up of fools. They look at the quality of the opposition. And that is where UTEP and ECU come up sorely lacking.
UTEP played only three top-100 RPI teams in OOC play. MT played that many in the first three games of the season. ECU didn't play a SINGLE team in the top-100 in OOC play and instead faced nine teams outside the top-200. Nobody (outside of Pirate fans) takes a shiny win/loss record against that slate of opposition seriously. So UTEP and ECU will basically be punished by the selection committee for such weak scheduling. The fact that they both have two bad losses (outside the top-100) is icing on the rejection cake.
Tulane just lacks enough quality wins. They lost five out of the seven games against top-100 competition.
Southern Miss actually has the best argument for an at-large bid. They are playing their best ball down the stretch. They have only one "bad" loss. And they have by far the best win in the conference (over MT). But even there, they played far too weak an OOC schedule.
If C-USA teams want to improve their chances for at-large bids in the future, follow three simple rules:
1. Schedule at least four games against Power-6 (BCS) conference foes. They don't even have to be the BEST teams from those conferences. The bottom teams in the ACC, SEC, Big 10/12 and Pac-12 are ones that good C-USA teams should beat and those teams generally carry strong RPIs based upon the top competition they play. Plus those teams are "name" teams that fans/media know and pay attention to.
2. Schedule no more than 3 games against foes you KNOW are going to be outside the top-150. Everyone has some local teams they play to save on expenses. But don't pick your ENTIRE OOC schedule from the pastry section.
3. Win against quality opponents. There is no getting around the fact that you have to beat some good teams to warrant inclusion in the NCAA tournament.