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Toledo has soft "bubble"
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Nick in Cleveland Offline
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Post: #1
Toledo has soft "bubble"
"Does Saturday's loss at Eastern Michigan disqualify the Rockets from at-large consideration? Probably. There's simply no way Toledo can get back that kind of loss against the rest of the MAC. This is how soft bubbles are born"


I guess they don't know that Eastern also beat UW-Green Bay...and has a pretty high RPI too


Green Bay [21-5 (11-2), RPI: 63, SOS: 167] The Phoenix own a home win over Virginia, a three-point home loss to Wisconsin and computer numbers that honestly could be worse given how tough things are in the Horizon League this season. The best bet is still to make it academic in the HL tourney, but Green Bay isn't as long a shot as, say, Toledo.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
02-18-2014 05:17 PM
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T-Town Offline
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RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-18-2014 05:17 PM)Nick in Cleveland Wrote:  "Does Saturday's loss at Eastern Michigan disqualify the Rockets from at-large consideration? Probably. There's simply no way Toledo can get back that kind of loss against the rest of the MAC. This is how soft bubbles are born"


I guess they don't know that Eastern also beat UW-Green Bay...and has a pretty high RPI too


Green Bay [21-5 (11-2), RPI: 63, SOS: 167] The Phoenix own a home win over Virginia, a three-point home loss to Wisconsin and computer numbers that honestly could be worse given how tough things are in the Horizon League this season. The best bet is still to make it academic in the HL tourney, but Green Bay isn't as long a shot as, say, Toledo.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

The Big Ten (sic) would be more likely to get at-large bids for all 12 of their teams than for either Toledo or Green Bay to get an invitation. They all have tons of "good" (sic) losses and besides they need all of those BIG NCAA Tourney $$$$$ they can get their hands on in order to pay those obscene coaching salaries that they pay.
02-18-2014 05:37 PM
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T4C8 Offline
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RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
Im not feeling good about any at large chances anymore
02-18-2014 06:08 PM
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MidnightBlueGold Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
Toledo's bubble chances ended after the WMU loss.
02-18-2014 06:16 PM
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perimeterpost Offline
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RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
Toledo's problem is they've already lost to 3 of the top 5 teams in the MAC. To get an At Large Bid they'll have to lose in the MACC to a top team, chances are it will be their 2nd loss to that team. That would likely be a deal breaker. Bit of a Catch .22.

Also, consider this-

If Toledo beats EMU in the rematch it will still mean that Toledo's top 2 wins are vs teams that beat them. (OU, EMU). Not impressive enough for an at large.
02-18-2014 06:50 PM
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HuskieTap22 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
Eastern Michigan might be the only team with an outside chance of an at large if they can win out until the MACC finals. They are the only teams with a SOS that will keep them in the conversation and another win over Toledo plus whoever they knock off in the tournament could help. Plus they only have one loss to a team with a losing record plus wins over Cleveland State and Wisconsin Green Bay. An RPI of 68 and a SOS of 38 is the only thing that would keep their really slim chances alive if they can go on a streak. Admittedly though it is a big stretch. Toledo is finished for an at large with an SOS north of 100.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2014 09:32 PM by HuskieTap22.)
02-18-2014 09:31 PM
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MidnightBlueGold Offline
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RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-18-2014 09:31 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  Eastern Michigan might be the only team with an outside chance of an at large if they can win out until the MACC finals...

Good one. No MAC team - no matter how good their SOS was, no matter how good the teams were that they lost to - will ever get an at-large bid with 10 losses, including 5 MAC losses.
02-18-2014 09:41 PM
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EagleSam Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
Nah we don't have a prayer. If we would've beat UMass, who we were beating most of the game, it might have been a different story.

Sucks to say it, but we are almost certainly a one-bid league again.
02-18-2014 09:43 PM
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Campbell4President Offline
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RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
I have a feeling that it is going to be Ohio or Buffalo winning the MAC Tourney which means my Rockets would be in the NIT. I know I'm probably the only Rocket fan that would feel this way but unless my team is good enough to make it to at least the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the NIT especially if they could buy home games the way they did with the ladies a few years back (but I don't know how the NIT works with home games, etc.). I'd prefer a chance to win the NIT over a first round loss of the NCAA tournament.
02-19-2014 01:30 AM
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MidnightBlueGold Offline
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RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-19-2014 01:30 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  I have a feeling that it is going to be Ohio or Buffalo winning the MAC Tourney which means my Rockets would be in the NIT. I know I'm probably the only Rocket fan that would feel this way but unless my team is good enough to make it to at least the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the NIT especially if they could buy home games the way they did with the ladies a few years back (but I don't know how the NIT works with home games, etc.). I'd prefer a chance to win the NIT over a first round loss of the NCAA tournament.

NIT home games are determined by the seeing - unlike the WNIT which is determined by bidding between the 2 teams.
02-19-2014 07:04 AM
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Slinkin Street Flash Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
I think you'll find if Toledo gets to 27 wins, they can get in as an at-large. So they might go 5-1 the rest of the way, and 1-1 in the tournament, and they'd be 27-6, and that ought to get them in. Beating WMU would help, because their remaining schedule doesn't have any other strong teams on it.

It's hard to say because no MAC team has got in as an at-large in the last 10 years. And with how things have changed over that period it's hard to know what'll make it.

From what I've seen, for MAC teams, 28 wins will be about a 90% chance of getting in, 27 wins about 75% chance, 26 gets down to 40% chance.
02-19-2014 07:38 AM
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Eagle66 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
I used ESPN RPI data from last year to pull up one of the teams that played as an at-large in the 2013 First Four (Middle Tennessee State), as well as the highest RPI team not to make it last year (Southern Miss). Here's their data compared to Toledo thus far. (I tried putting it in a table, but couldn't get the formatting right)

Toledo
RPI - 29
SOS - 127
Record - 21-4
Conf Rec - 9-3
Vs Top 50 - 0-1
Vs 51-100 - 3-2
Vs 101-150 - 3-1
Road Rec - 7-4
Best Win - 65 Ohio
Worst Loss - @ 108 W. Michigan
Conf RPI - 12

Middle Tenn.
RPI - 28
SOS - 135
Record - 28-5
Conf Rec - 19-1
Vs Top 50 - 1-3
Vs 51-100 - 0-0
Vs 101-150 - 6-1
Road Rec - 11-4
Best Win - 48 Ole Miss
Worst Loss - @ 161 Arkansas St.
Conf RPI - 15

Southern Miss
RPI - 34
SOS - 66
Record - 23-9
Conf Rec - 12-4
Vs Top 50 - 0-5
Vs 51-100 - 3-2
Vs 101-150 - 9-1
Road Rec - 9-6
Best Win - 69 Denver
Worst Loss - @ 211 Marshall
Conf RPI - 11
02-19-2014 09:13 AM
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uakronkid Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
The difference is that Toledo only played one top-50 team.
02-19-2014 09:20 AM
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inductchuck16 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-19-2014 01:30 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  I have a feeling that it is going to be Ohio or Buffalo winning the MAC Tourney which means my Rockets would be in the NIT. I know I'm probably the only Rocket fan that would feel this way but unless my team is good enough to make it to at least the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the NIT especially if they could buy home games the way they did with the ladies a few years back (but I don't know how the NIT works with home games, etc.). I'd prefer a chance to win the NIT over a first round loss of the NCAA tournament.

I want the banner that says 'NCAA Tournament'

Not one that says 'NIT'
02-19-2014 12:08 PM
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T-Town Offline
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RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-19-2014 01:30 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  I have a feeling that it is going to be Ohio or Buffalo winning the MAC Tourney which means my Rockets would be in the NIT. I know I'm probably the only Rocket fan that would feel this way but unless my team is good enough to make it to at least the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the NIT especially if they could buy home games the way they did with the ladies a few years back (but I don't know how the NIT works with home games, etc.). I'd prefer a chance to win the NIT over a first round loss of the NCAA tournament.

I understand where you are likely coming from (probably the women's success in the 2010 WNIT) and I don't want to rain on your NIT parade, but:

1) With UT being one of the host sites for the 1st & 2nd rounds of the Women's NCAA Tournament this year, I seriously doubt that Savage will be hosting any NIT games this year, even if a team gets in.

2) The women's were able to play all six WNIT games at Savage in 2010 because they rank higher in attendance than most other teams playing in the WNIT and therefore the UT administration was in a favorable position to out bid most other schools (even big names) for the home court advantage. The men do NOT have that luxury. For example this year, although the UT women are only playing about .500 ball, they currently rank 25th in the country in average attendance per game, yet the men with a record of 21-4 do not even come close to ranking in the top 100 teams in the country in average home attendance.

I remember a few years ago the men did get a 1st round NIT game against South Alabama at Savage but I don't think they would be ever be likely to get a second round game at Savage because the bidding would probably be too tough.

I feel the same way about the men this year as I felt about the women last year-------namely they have a reasonably good chance of winning the MAC Tournament this year (probably 50/50) and most teams are not often in that position, so I am going to be disappointed if they don't succeed.

I personally don't have another 33 years to wait around for the program to win another MBB MAC Tournament and future opportunities are never promised so they need to answer the call this year because the opportunity to win it all does exist this year.
02-19-2014 01:24 PM
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axeme Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-19-2014 01:24 PM)T-Town Wrote:  
(02-19-2014 01:30 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  I have a feeling that it is going to be Ohio or Buffalo winning the MAC Tourney which means my Rockets would be in the NIT. I know I'm probably the only Rocket fan that would feel this way but unless my team is good enough to make it to at least the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the NIT especially if they could buy home games the way they did with the ladies a few years back (but I don't know how the NIT works with home games, etc.). I'd prefer a chance to win the NIT over a first round loss of the NCAA tournament.

I understand where you are likely coming from (probably the women's success in the 2010 WNIT) and I don't want to rain on your NIT parade, but:

1) With UT being one of the host sites for the 1st & 2nd rounds of the Women's NCAA Tournament this year, I seriously doubt that Savage will be hosting any NIT games this year, even if a team gets in.

2) The women's were able to play all six WNIT games at Savage in 2010 because they rank higher in attendance than most other teams playing in the WNIT and therefore the UT administration was in a favorable position to out bid most other schools (even big names) for the home court advantage. The men do NOT have that luxury. For example this year, although the UT women are only playing about .500 ball, they currently rank 25th in the country in average attendance per game, yet the men with a record of 21-4 do not even come close to ranking in the top 100 teams in the country in average home attendance.

I remember a few years ago the men did get a 1st round NIT game against South Alabama at Savage but I don't think they would be ever be likely to get a second round game at Savage because the bidding would probably be too tough.

I feel the same way about the men this year as I felt about the women last year-------namely they have a reasonably good chance of winning the MAC Tournament this year (probably 50/50) and most teams are not often in that position, so I am going to be disappointed if they don't succeed.

I personally don't have another 33 years to wait around for the program to win another MBB MAC Tournament and future opportunities are never promised so they need to answer the call this year because the opportunity to win it all does exist this year.

There is no bidding for the men's NIT games, as someone noted earlier. The NCAA took the tourney over and home games are determined by the seeds which are set before the tourney starts. Better seed is the home team until NYC. Attendance has zero to do with it.
02-19-2014 01:29 PM
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T-Town Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-19-2014 01:29 PM)axeme Wrote:  
(02-19-2014 01:24 PM)T-Town Wrote:  
(02-19-2014 01:30 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  I have a feeling that it is going to be Ohio or Buffalo winning the MAC Tourney which means my Rockets would be in the NIT. I know I'm probably the only Rocket fan that would feel this way but unless my team is good enough to make it to at least the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the NIT especially if they could buy home games the way they did with the ladies a few years back (but I don't know how the NIT works with home games, etc.). I'd prefer a chance to win the NIT over a first round loss of the NCAA tournament.

I understand where you are likely coming from (probably the women's success in the 2010 WNIT) and I don't want to rain on your NIT parade, but:

1) With UT being one of the host sites for the 1st & 2nd rounds of the Women's NCAA Tournament this year, I seriously doubt that Savage will be hosting any NIT games this year, even if a team gets in.

2) The women's were able to play all six WNIT games at Savage in 2010 because they rank higher in attendance than most other teams playing in the WNIT and therefore the UT administration was in a favorable position to out bid most other schools (even big names) for the home court advantage. The men do NOT have that luxury. For example this year, although the UT women are only playing about .500 ball, they currently rank 25th in the country in average attendance per game, yet the men with a record of 21-4 do not even come close to ranking in the top 100 teams in the country in average home attendance.

I remember a few years ago the men did get a 1st round NIT game against South Alabama at Savage but I don't think they would be ever be likely to get a second round game at Savage because the bidding would probably be too tough.

I feel the same way about the men this year as I felt about the women last year-------namely they have a reasonably good chance of winning the MAC Tournament this year (probably 50/50) and most teams are not often in that position, so I am going to be disappointed if they don't succeed.

I personally don't have another 33 years to wait around for the program to win another MBB MAC Tournament and future opportunities are never promised so they need to answer the call this year because the opportunity to win it all does exist this year.

There is no bidding for the men's NIT games, as someone noted earlier. The NCAA took the tourney over and home games are determined by the seeds which are set before the tourney starts. Better seed is the home team until NYC. Attendance has zero to do with it.

Thanks for the clarification; however, I still don't see any home NIT game for UT if they lose out in the MACC Tournament.
02-19-2014 02:08 PM
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Eagle66 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-19-2014 01:29 PM)axeme Wrote:  
(02-19-2014 01:24 PM)T-Town Wrote:  
(02-19-2014 01:30 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  I have a feeling that it is going to be Ohio or Buffalo winning the MAC Tourney which means my Rockets would be in the NIT. I know I'm probably the only Rocket fan that would feel this way but unless my team is good enough to make it to at least the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the NIT especially if they could buy home games the way they did with the ladies a few years back (but I don't know how the NIT works with home games, etc.). I'd prefer a chance to win the NIT over a first round loss of the NCAA tournament.

I understand where you are likely coming from (probably the women's success in the 2010 WNIT) and I don't want to rain on your NIT parade, but:

1) With UT being one of the host sites for the 1st & 2nd rounds of the Women's NCAA Tournament this year, I seriously doubt that Savage will be hosting any NIT games this year, even if a team gets in.

2) The women's were able to play all six WNIT games at Savage in 2010 because they rank higher in attendance than most other teams playing in the WNIT and therefore the UT administration was in a favorable position to out bid most other schools (even big names) for the home court advantage. The men do NOT have that luxury. For example this year, although the UT women are only playing about .500 ball, they currently rank 25th in the country in average attendance per game, yet the men with a record of 21-4 do not even come close to ranking in the top 100 teams in the country in average home attendance.

I remember a few years ago the men did get a 1st round NIT game against South Alabama at Savage but I don't think they would be ever be likely to get a second round game at Savage because the bidding would probably be too tough.

I feel the same way about the men this year as I felt about the women last year-------namely they have a reasonably good chance of winning the MAC Tournament this year (probably 50/50) and most teams are not often in that position, so I am going to be disappointed if they don't succeed.

I personally don't have another 33 years to wait around for the program to win another MBB MAC Tournament and future opportunities are never promised so they need to answer the call this year because the opportunity to win it all does exist this year.

There is no bidding for the men's NIT games, as someone noted earlier. The NCAA took the tourney over and home games are determined by the seeds which are set before the tourney starts. Better seed is the home team until NYC. Attendance has zero to do with it.

The only exception is if there are conflicts (i.e. NCAA games being played in a higher seeds arena). For example, #1 Kentucky playing at #8 Robert Morris last year, and #2 Dayton at #7 College of Charleston a few years ago.
02-19-2014 03:38 PM
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RedandBlackAttack Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
(02-19-2014 03:38 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  
(02-19-2014 01:29 PM)axeme Wrote:  
(02-19-2014 01:24 PM)T-Town Wrote:  
(02-19-2014 01:30 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  I have a feeling that it is going to be Ohio or Buffalo winning the MAC Tourney which means my Rockets would be in the NIT. I know I'm probably the only Rocket fan that would feel this way but unless my team is good enough to make it to at least the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing them play in the NIT especially if they could buy home games the way they did with the ladies a few years back (but I don't know how the NIT works with home games, etc.). I'd prefer a chance to win the NIT over a first round loss of the NCAA tournament.

I understand where you are likely coming from (probably the women's success in the 2010 WNIT) and I don't want to rain on your NIT parade, but:

1) With UT being one of the host sites for the 1st & 2nd rounds of the Women's NCAA Tournament this year, I seriously doubt that Savage will be hosting any NIT games this year, even if a team gets in.

2) The women's were able to play all six WNIT games at Savage in 2010 because they rank higher in attendance than most other teams playing in the WNIT and therefore the UT administration was in a favorable position to out bid most other schools (even big names) for the home court advantage. The men do NOT have that luxury. For example this year, although the UT women are only playing about .500 ball, they currently rank 25th in the country in average attendance per game, yet the men with a record of 21-4 do not even come close to ranking in the top 100 teams in the country in average home attendance.

I remember a few years ago the men did get a 1st round NIT game against South Alabama at Savage but I don't think they would be ever be likely to get a second round game at Savage because the bidding would probably be too tough.

I feel the same way about the men this year as I felt about the women last year-------namely they have a reasonably good chance of winning the MAC Tournament this year (probably 50/50) and most teams are not often in that position, so I am going to be disappointed if they don't succeed.

I personally don't have another 33 years to wait around for the program to win another MBB MAC Tournament and future opportunities are never promised so they need to answer the call this year because the opportunity to win it all does exist this year.

There is no bidding for the men's NIT games, as someone noted earlier. The NCAA took the tourney over and home games are determined by the seeds which are set before the tourney starts. Better seed is the home team until NYC. Attendance has zero to do with it.

The only exception is if there are conflicts (i.e. NCAA games being played in a higher seeds arena). For example, #1 Kentucky playing at #8 Robert Morris last year, and #2 Dayton at #7 College of Charleston a few years ago.

I loved watching Robert Morris beat godly Kentucky on their own home floor last year, awesome site.
02-19-2014 03:45 PM
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MissouriStateBears Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Toledo has soft "bubble"
You will get screwed on NIT seeding as well. The year we were the highest rated RPI team ever to be left out of the tournament, we weren't even a #1 seed in the NIT.
02-19-2014 03:47 PM
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