Following most basketball players through a season, you don't usually see radical change. The differences, if any, are usually gradual and incremental. Maybe they’ll average 2 more points per game in conference. Or 1 less rebound. Or half a steal more per game. If there is going to be a radical change in play, it is more likely to happen over the summer as a player grows and develops, putting in time perfecting his shot, or building his strength.

But not with Lester Wilson. Something happens when he gets about 2/3’s to 3/4’s of the way into the season. Suddenly we have a ‘paradigm shift’, a moment when his career is punctuated by a shift into a new, and radically different equilibrium. The shift could be very negative, or very positive.

Last year, after game 24, ¾’s of the way into the season, Lester was averaging 34.7 minutes, scoring 15.5 points on .444 from the field, shooting.385 from 3 and grabbing 5.5 rebounds. Having a pretty awesome freshman year, in other words. Suddenly, without warning, in the last 8 games of the season, he went to 24.5 minutes, with only 6.1 points on .305 from the field, .235 from 3 and .556 from the line, and 4 rebounds. This shift was in a decidedly negative direction.

Anybody who hoped that Lester would return to his previous level of performance with a new season was disappointed. Lester’s preconference levels this season were a lot like the last 8 games of last season: 18.7 minutes; 8.8 points on .368 from the field and .266 from 3, (although free throw shooting did improve to .733) with 2.6 rebounds and 0.4 steals.

Well, you might think that getting into conference play in the relatively weak ASun would bring improvement. But if you did think that, you were disappointed. Lester’s numbers actually dropped in the first 7 conference games: 16.1 minutes, 5.1 points on .280 from the field, .240 from 3, .570 from the freethrow line, 2.5 rebounds and 0 steals. Probably not coincidentally, the Bucs were 3-4 in those 7 conference games.

At this point we were at game 20, 2/3’s of the way into the season. Not a moment too soon, there was another sudden and radical break in Lester’s performance level. In the next (most recent) 8 conference games, Lester averaged 26.4 minutes, scoring 13.9 points on .455 from the field, .375 from 3, 13-14 for .929 from the line, 5.8 rebounds, and averaged 1 steal. Unlike last year’s late season shift, this one is hugely positive. The numbers were better and more efficient even than Lester's early freshmen performances. Not coincidentally, the Bucs have gone 6-2 in those 8 conference games games.

Why has Lester’s career gone this way, with 2 radical late season shifts? One possible guess from a fan with no inside knowledge – Lester strikes me as a very proud, serious minded and, perhaps, a little stubborn young man. The kind of guy who broods over the way things are going and doesn’t take to change lightly. You could walk into a game halfway through and see immediately from his body language exactly how the game has been going for him without looking at the stats. Whereas, with a Jalen Riley, you might not know whether he’s made or missed his last several shots. The kind of guy who broods over things may be harder to get to change. And it may have the effect of a dam breaking when change finally does come through.

Whatever the reason, I hope that Lester continues on this improved path, with the confidence, fire and energy that it has brought to his game and to the team as a whole.

I hope many of our players see what hard work during the offseason does for you. Look at Rashawn, he worked his butt off this past offseason and has turned into one of the best shooters in the conference, and maybe the country. Hopefully Lester will Learn from Rashawn and will put more work into his shot this offseason than those big Biceps of his.

It's not unusual for a college freshman to wear down as the year goes on.. especially on a team that loses players, and he has to try and carry such a heavy load...
And it's not unusual for players to have a sophomore slump.. happens all the time.. we are lucky that he had several more guys to help carry the load this year, and he seems to have now regained his confidence..
I have watched Lester play since his high school days.. and I truly believe he will be all conference in the Socon next two years if he stays healthy..

The short-memory hypothesis has a lot of merit. It seems like all the great shooters at all levels have a certain level of amnesia. To this point, in Saturday's game Jalen drove the lane and got swatted by Willie Green. Jalen turned to Green and gave him an ear-to-ear grin. That blocked shot was already a distant memory.

(02-17-2014 01:52 PM)bucfan1968 Wrote:  It's not unusual for a college freshman to wear down as the year goes on.. especially on a team that loses players, and he has to try and carry such a heavy load...
And it's not unusual for players to have a sophomore slump.. happens all the time.. we are lucky that he had several more guys to help carry the load this year, and he seems to have now regained his confidence..
I have watched Lester play since his high school days.. and I truly believe he will be all conference in the Socon next two years if he stays healthy..

Mike Smith dropped off significantly as a sophomore.