(02-17-2014 02:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 11:51 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(02-16-2014 11:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  one point I'd make about ECU and Tulane in particular- and also Tulsa- they'll see a RPI boost just from not having to play vs the RPI bombs located in the cellar of CUSA...

Southern Miss plays in 'that' conference and has an RPI of 42. Middle TN is 74. We (Memphis) had to play crap teams in that conference and always had a decent RPI. We and the remaining 'decent CUSA teams just beat them. So --- I think the problem lies mostly with the teams like ECU *losing* to teams like UNC Wilmington (RPI of 275), Florida Atlantic (RPI of 235), FIU (200), Tulane (210), and North Texas (203). ECU lost to all of those teams and that IMO --- not the conference, is the real problem.

I think though there's a lot more of a penalty playing a really awful team than there is playing a solid team. I mean, look at Houston. They are 2-3 games worse this year compared to last year- but the RPI is much better. OOC schedule still awful. In the RPI, it's better to play and lose to say a Memphis than it is to play and beat a Rice ranked 284 in the RPI. Just look at Tulsa. 9 of their 16 conference games(another help for them next year- going up to 18)- are vs teams with RPI 200 or worse. In the AAC next year for instance- Tulane and ECU would be the only teams in that boat. So to go from 9/16 to at most 4/18- that's a HUGE difference right there. For Tulane/ECU- they would go from like 8/16 down to 2/18 at the most.

As far as the OOC schedules, I can understand especially for UCF, Houston, and even SMU why they would schedule weakly this year OOC- not knowing what the new conference would be like. I'd expect them to upgrade their OOC schedules as we go along here.

At the time SMU played Virginia and A&M in a OOC tournament. Plus they played @Arkansas. While Virginia is holding up their end of the bargain. Who knew Arkansas & A&M would hike their skirts up once SEC play started. Both were in the top 60 RPI at the time.

Other problem with SMU OOC. No Moody Coliseum at the time. Now that Moody will likely be sold out for next season. Hopefully, they will schedule up in OOC. . . That is if any team in other conferences have the balls to schedule a home-and-home with SMU

(02-17-2014 08:28 PM)Tigers2B1 Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 12:16 PM)NYCTUFan Wrote:  I think some of the programs need to take a hard look at their non conference strength of schedule. When Temple was in the A10 to be sure they had some wiggle room if they ended up on the bubble for an NCAA bid they have always looked to schedule non conference slate of games that combined ended up as tough or tougher than the conference schedule.

Temple has always publicly taken a “we will play anyone anyplace” mentality when scheduling OOC games. Sometimes it came back to bite them but more often than not it made the team stronger when conference play started.

Looking at the current and future AAC teams the rankings for strength of non conference schedules are as follows:

Temple 44
Memphis 62
UConn 72
Cincy 95
SMU 295
USF 322
UCF 341
Houston 344

Tulsa 45
East Carolina 245
Tulane 324

You can’t control how the other teams in the conference play, but quality out of conference wins always help the RPI.

ECU put 4 Div II teams on their schedule (for the wins I guess) that aren't reflected in that OOC schedule ranking. The "we're in a bad conference" excuse just looks too flimsy.

Which in essence was the point being made. Don't blame a weak conference for your rock bottom RPI when you're not only playing at the bottom of it record-wise but also play a horrible out of conference schedule. When you function like that please don't blame your conference --- it's silly -

the thing is, ECU and the others will see their RPI's improve just by switching conferences. CUSA is so bad this year(27 spots worse than last year). That difference times 18 is HUGE. Yes ECU can schedule better, but even if they don't- they would see their RPI go up just from the schedule difference.

(02-18-2014 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing is, ECU and the others will see their RPI's improve just by switching conferences. CUSA is so bad this year(27 spots worse than last year). That difference times 18 is HUGE. Yes ECU can schedule better, but even if they don't- they would see their RPI go up just from the schedule difference.

If playing in a new conference pulls bottom dweller programs RPI up than by definition it drags the RPIs of programs like UConn, Memphis and the like down by that same amount. Granted, it might not amount to much either way but there's no free RPI lunch here.

(02-18-2014 12:21 PM)Tigers2B1 Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing is, ECU and the others will see their RPI's improve just by switching conferences. CUSA is so bad this year(27 spots worse than last year). That difference times 18 is HUGE. Yes ECU can schedule better, but even if they don't- they would see their RPI go up just from the schedule difference.

If playing in a new conference pulls bottom dweller programs RPI up than by definition it drags the RPIs of programs like UConn, Memphis and the like down by that same amount. Granted, it might not amount to much either way but there's no free RPI lunch here.

not necessarily. the rpi's in CUSA will get even worse. Also, for the teams coming from CUSA, they get 2 more conference games, which will help them out a lot. Your theory is right as a whole, but the teams taking the hit won't be the AAC schools. It'll be schools in CUSA, and then SBC and then Southern.

Also, next year, teams will miss 2 teams. So that will help out as well for the stronger teams- they'll avoid 2 of the weaker schools potentially.

(02-18-2014 12:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 12:21 PM)Tigers2B1 Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing is, ECU and the others will see their RPI's improve just by switching conferences. CUSA is so bad this year(27 spots worse than last year). That difference times 18 is HUGE. Yes ECU can schedule better, but even if they don't- they would see their RPI go up just from the schedule difference.

If playing in a new conference pulls bottom dweller programs RPI up than by definition it drags the RPIs of programs like UConn, Memphis and the like down by that same amount. Granted, it might not amount to much either way but there's no free RPI lunch here.

not necessarily. the rpi's in CUSA will get even worse. Also, for the teams coming from CUSA, they get 2 more conference games, which will help them out a lot. Your theory is right as a whole, but the teams taking the hit won't be the AAC schools. It'll be schools in CUSA, and then SBC and then Southern.

Also, next year, teams will miss 2 teams. So that will help out as well for the stronger teams- they'll avoid 2 of the weaker schools potentially.

I have to say this for you stever20 --- you try really hard.

I think you just look at Houston. Last year they had the #181 conference SOS. this year, their SOS in conference play is up to #8. That's a HUGE difference for them. Now you say what about the top teams. All are between 92 and 114. However, all 5 have at least 3 games left with the top teams(and Louisville has 4). So they are going to jump up considerably when you add those other games in.

Tulsa this year 124 still has 4 teams 191 or worse left
Tulane 134 still has 3 teams 201 or worse left
ECU 144 still has 2 teams 258 or worse left
(all out of 5 teams left to play)

I don't know how far the 3 CUSA teams will fall in conference SOS, but they will drop some the rest of this year.

On average the 4 teams coming from CUSA this year have seen their conference SOS improve from an average of 136 up to 55.75. That is a HUGE difference.

just look at the 4 teams coming from CUSA..
last year- avg record was 20-11 avg rpi was 132.75
this year- avg record is 14.5-9.5 avg rpi is 110.75

so despite being 4 games worse this year, the RPI is 22 spots better. That's all SOS being so much better.