(02-14-2014 12:34 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 10:04 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 09:55 AM)Blazer85 Wrote:  Hope you're not referring to UAB. We weren't a bottom half team going into conference play. Unfortunately, we had several of those "bottom half" teams sneak up and bite us resulting in us becoming one of those bottom half teams. But no way should we be there, and hopefully last night is the beginning of a turn-around for us. We've beaten USM, ODU, and Tulsa and lost close ones to UTEP and MTSU.

UAB just guaranteed that CUSA will be a one bid conference for the tournament. USM had an outside chance of getting a bid if they lost in the finals of the tournament, IF they had won out prior to the conference tourney. But getting blown out like they did last night, USM lost any argument that they would deserve an at-large bid, even if they win the rest before the conference final. The conference tourney champion will be the only NCAA participant.

My interest is not in the other teams. My interest is in UAB being the premiere basketball team in this league. We had some let downs against some of the lower half teams in the league, but we've been competitive with (or beaten) most of the top half of the league.

What that means to me is that UAB has every bit as much of a chance of getting CUSA's NCAA bid as any other team (USM, UTEP, La Tech, MTSU, etc).

UAB had around a Top 100 RPI based on our OOC schedule. So if you're looking at teams to complain about, how about looking at all the teams in CUSA with sub 150 RPIs coming in to league play that now are getting wins over teams like UAB, UTEP, Charlotte, etc. that have significantly damaged the chances of CUSA getting multiple bids.

USM wasn't getting an at-large bid whether they won or not against UAB. The selection committee doesn't look blindly at your # in the RPI. They want to see big wins. They don't care that much even about good or decent wins. They want to see that you can beat Top 50 teams. The fact that UAB now has more Top 50 wins than USM isn't so much to say that UAB should be in at-large contention as it is to emphasize the point that USM's at-large resume is virtually shot ...even before last night.

Of course you shouldn't be interested in helping other teams. The creator of this post was just poking fun. I'm sure he meant it more as a "congratulations!"

(02-14-2014 12:34 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  USM wasn't getting an at-large bid whether they won or not against UAB.

Disagree. USM had a shot at getting an at-large bid if they didn't win the tourney. Of course things would have to fallen right for them but USM definitely had a chance at an at-large.

(02-14-2014 04:14 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 12:34 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  USM wasn't getting an at-large bid whether they won or not against UAB.

Disagree. USM had a shot at getting an at-large bid if they didn't win the tourney. Of course things would have to fallen right for them but USM definitely had a chance at an at-large.

If USM wins the conference, wins out, and loses in the final, I would be very surprised if they didn't get it.

(02-14-2014 04:38 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 04:14 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 12:34 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  USM wasn't getting an at-large bid whether they won or not against UAB.

Disagree. USM had a shot at getting an at-large bid if they didn't win the tourney. Of course things would have to fallen right for them but USM definitely had a chance at an at-large.

If USM wins the conference, wins out, and loses in the final, I would be very surprised if they didn't get it.

Where is USM RPI at the moment?

(02-14-2014 04:42 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 04:38 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 04:14 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 12:34 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  USM wasn't getting an at-large bid whether they won or not against UAB.

Disagree. USM had a shot at getting an at-large bid if they didn't win the tourney. Of course things would have to fallen right for them but USM definitely had a chance at an at-large.

If USM wins the conference, wins out, and loses in the final, I would be very surprised if they didn't get it.

Where is USM RPI at the moment?

RPI is currently 40. RPI Forecast projections have us around 27 if we close the season with six straight wins and 35 with a 5-1 finish as long as it's another road loss.

It's a case of you control what you can (WIN your games), you don't control what you can't....

If our resume looks good enough at hte end and we don't get in.. then I'll gripe. IF our resume doesn't and we dont' get in.. then I won't.

(02-14-2014 04:59 PM)USMSTUD Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 04:42 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 04:38 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 04:14 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 12:34 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  USM wasn't getting an at-large bid whether they won or not against UAB.

Disagree. USM had a shot at getting an at-large bid if they didn't win the tourney. Of course things would have to fallen right for them but USM definitely had a chance at an at-large.

If USM wins the conference, wins out, and loses in the final, I would be very surprised if they didn't get it.

Where is USM RPI at the moment?

RPI is currently 40. RPI Forecast projections have us around 27 if we close the season with six straight wins and 35 with a 5-1 finish as long as it's another road loss.

If that is the case, USM would have a very decent shot for an at-large. The only thing that could prevent that is the Eagles strength of schedule. Mizzou St was a victim of this about 8 years ago. Had been ranked in to the top 25, had an RPI of like 31 and still got left out of the dance even though 5 other teams from the MVC made it that year.

(02-14-2014 08:47 AM)shyminer Wrote:  Miners need to win the tourney, and please don't play FAU! Those 3's :/

Speaking of threes, UAB was dead last in the conference and hit 11-23.

(02-14-2014 10:04 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 09:55 AM)Blazer85 Wrote:  Hope you're not referring to UAB. We weren't a bottom half team going into conference play. Unfortunately, we had several of those "bottom half" teams sneak up and bite us resulting in us becoming one of those bottom half teams. But no way should we be there, and hopefully last night is the beginning of a turn-around for us. We've beaten USM, ODU, and Tulsa and lost close ones to UTEP and MTSU.

UAB just guaranteed that CUSA will be a one bid conference for the tournament. USM had an outside chance of getting a bid if they lost in the finals of the tournament, IF they had won out prior to the conference tourney. But getting blown out like they did last night, USM lost any argument that they would deserve an at-large bid, even if they win the rest before the conference final. The conference tourney champion will be the only NCAA participant.

Last season we had a similar SOS and a 23-9 record against D1 competition. We were the last team out. This season we can finish 27-5 against D1 without winning the autobid and have a top 50 win. I like our chances if that happens. Big if, though.

I know this from experience with UAB. A high RPI doesn't guarantee anything. Because usually they start looking at how many wins you have vs the RPI Top 50. So while overall USM has a good profile and good computer numbers, I'm betting you that at this point USM would be out based on lack of Top 50 wins.

The selection committee wants to know that they are picking a team that has the potential to win games in the NCAA tournament. The best way to do that is to see how many other tournament caliber teams they've beat (ie, usually translates to looking at record vs. Top 50 RPI teams since those are the most likely ones to be dancing).

I think USM is a good team, and very well could be deserving of a bid. But my opinion is that the chance of that happening is very low outside of them winning the CUSA tournament. There are no more chances for wins vs the Top 50. In fact, of USM's remaining games only 1 is even against the RPI Top 100, and 4 of the 6 remaining are against sub 200 RPI teams.

CUSA had a chance at multiple bids earlier in the year, but that was before teams like UAB, Charlotte, and UTEP started losing to teams like UNT, FAU, and Rice. Had the RPI leaders from the OOC schedule all taken care of business in CUSA competition, I think we could be looking certainly at 2 bids for CUSA (maybe 3). At this point, however, we are a 1 bid league.

And before folks complain, I have no problem with UNT, FAU, and Rice playing better ball. I just wish they could do that in the OOC schedule.

(02-14-2014 04:42 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 04:38 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 04:14 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 12:34 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  USM wasn't getting an at-large bid whether they won or not against UAB.

Disagree. USM had a shot at getting an at-large bid if they didn't win the tourney. Of course things would have to fallen right for them but USM definitely had a chance at an at-large.

If USM wins the conference, wins out, and loses in the final, I would be very surprised if they didn't get it.

Where is USM RPI at the moment?

40

(02-14-2014 07:29 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  I know this from experience with UAB. A high RPI doesn't guarantee anything. Because usually they start looking at how many wins you have vs the RPI Top 50. So while overall USM has a good profile and good computer numbers, I'm betting you that at this point USM would be out based on lack of Top 50 wins.

The selection committee wants to know that they are picking a team that has the potential to win games in the NCAA tournament. The best way to do that is to see how many other tournament caliber teams they've beat (ie, usually translates to looking at record vs. Top 50 RPI teams since those are the most likely ones to be dancing).

I think USM is a good team, and very well could be deserving of a bid. But my opinion is that the chance of that happening is very low outside of them winning the CUSA tournament. There are no more chances for wins vs the Top 50. In fact, of USM's remaining games only 1 is even against the RPI Top 100, and 4 of the 6 remaining are against sub 200 RPI teams.

CUSA had a chance at multiple bids earlier in the year, but that was before teams like UAB, Charlotte, and UTEP started losing to teams like UNT, FAU, and Rice. Had the RPI leaders from the OOC schedule all taken care of business in CUSA competition, I think we could be looking certainly at 2 bids for CUSA (maybe 3). At this point, however, we are a 1 bid league.

And before folks complain, I have no problem with UNT, FAU, and Rice playing better ball. I just wish they could do that in the OOC schedule.

Currently, USM has a Top 50 win against NDSU. RPIForecast projects NDSU to end with an RPI of 50.2.

(02-14-2014 05:54 PM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 10:04 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 09:55 AM)Blazer85 Wrote:  Hope you're not referring to UAB. We weren't a bottom half team going into conference play. Unfortunately, we had several of those "bottom half" teams sneak up and bite us resulting in us becoming one of those bottom half teams. But no way should we be there, and hopefully last night is the beginning of a turn-around for us. We've beaten USM, ODU, and Tulsa and lost close ones to UTEP and MTSU.

UAB just guaranteed that CUSA will be a one bid conference for the tournament. USM had an outside chance of getting a bid if they lost in the finals of the tournament, IF they had won out prior to the conference tourney. But getting blown out like they did last night, USM lost any argument that they would deserve an at-large bid, even if they win the rest before the conference final. The conference tourney champion will be the only NCAA participant.

Last season we had a similar SOS and a 23-9 record against D1 competition. We were the last team out. This season we can finish 27-5 against D1 without winning the autobid and have a top 50 win. I like our chances if that happens. Big if, though.

Our strength of schedule was much higher last year. Think we finished in the 60s. Around 150 now and not going to improve much.

(02-14-2014 07:42 PM)USMSTUD Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 05:54 PM)Funslinger Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 10:04 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 09:55 AM)Blazer85 Wrote:  Hope you're not referring to UAB. We weren't a bottom half team going into conference play. Unfortunately, we had several of those "bottom half" teams sneak up and bite us resulting in us becoming one of those bottom half teams. But no way should we be there, and hopefully last night is the beginning of a turn-around for us. We've beaten USM, ODU, and Tulsa and lost close ones to UTEP and MTSU.

UAB just guaranteed that CUSA will be a one bid conference for the tournament. USM had an outside chance of getting a bid if they lost in the finals of the tournament, IF they had won out prior to the conference tourney. But getting blown out like they did last night, USM lost any argument that they would deserve an at-large bid, even if they win the rest before the conference final. The conference tourney champion will be the only NCAA participant.

Last season we had a similar SOS and a 23-9 record against D1 competition. We were the last team out. This season we can finish 27-5 against D1 without winning the autobid and have a top 50 win. I like our chances if that happens. Big if, though.

Our strength of schedule was much higher last year. Think we finished in the 60s. Around 150 now and not going to improve much.

It was higher but not that much higher and we didn't have a Top 50 win last season. Our SOS has been hurt this season by teams blowing leads late. Morehead State had a 7 point lead on Belmont with 2:30 to go and lost by 5 by making some of the most boneheaded plays I've ever seen.. Drexel lost to Charleston last night by missing two free throws with 14 seconds to go and then giving up an offense board and put back to lose by 1. Plus, Louisville is having a down season from what was projected. It will be tough, but I still think we have a shot if we don't lose again until the title game.

Bracketmatrix.com which is a compilation of 74 brackets still has us as an 11 seed after the UAB loss. But only 33 of the 74 brackets have been updated since the loss. Let's see where USM is after all of them have been updated.

Most bracket projections are probably still predicting USM to win the CUSA tournament. I doubt there are very many that will project them as an at-large. Having one top 50 win is nice but the committee will have problems when they have lower RPI teams with more top 50 wins. Take for example even as low as UABs RPI is at around 150, we have two top 50 wins over UNC and USM. Given that, I'm sure there are teams lower than USM in the RPI that have more than two top 50 wins who will likely be perceived as better at-large candidates.

And again, I would love for USM to get in as an at large. It helps perception of the league and is a good financial boost. But I don't see it happening knowing the way the committee works.

(02-15-2014 09:39 AM)Blazer85 Wrote:  Most bracket projections are probably still predicting USM to win the CUSA tournament. I doubt there are very many that will project them as an at-large. Having one top 50 win is nice but the committee will have problems when they have lower RPI teams with more top 50 wins. Take for example even as low as UABs RPI is at around 150, we have two top 50 wins over UNC and USM. Given that, I'm sure there are teams lower than USM in the RPI that have more than two top 50 wins who will likely be perceived as better at-large candidates.

And again, I would love for USM to get in as an at large. It helps perception of the league and is a good financial boost. But I don't see it happening knowing the way the committee works.

True, but some are still seeding us ahead of at-large teams.

Thought USM had the best shot at an at large bid with an RPI in the 40's but two loses in a row pretty much killed it.

(02-16-2014 11:02 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Thought USM had the best shot at an at large bid with an RPI in the 40's but two loses in a row pretty much killed it.

Yep, agreed. MT might finish around ~47 if we win out, though, so perhaps that will be good enough for at least consideration (if we don't win the tournament)...

That said, if USM wins out they should have an RPI ~32 or so (according to RPIForecast).