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Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
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Eichorst Offline
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Post: #1
Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
The ACC is bringing forth a proposal that would give conferences greater flexibility when it comes to determining the participants in the conference championship games. The proposal would allow conferences to do away with divisions and take the top 2 teams in the conference based on record, AP rank, etc.

The interesting thing about the abolition of divisions is that it allows much greater scheduling flexibility during the regular season. Rather than a team being forced to play 5 or 6 in-division games (at 12 and 14 teams, respectively) and limiting play against teams from the other division to 3 or 2 games, conferences could create much more balanced schedules that ensure that everyone (even in large conferences of 16 or 18 members) play each other 2 teams in 4 years.

So how does the Big XII fit in? For starters, the Big XII wants a championship game. Secondly, the Big XII wants to expand to keep up with the other power conferences, but they've been concerned about scheduling.

Under the current setup for instance, if the Big XII adds Cincy and Memphis, it could create a new Big XII North and have enough teams for a championship game. However, why would Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, and West Virginia want to play 5 games in the Big XII North and only 3 games against the South? Many of these teams' recruits come from Texas, and they would be limiting their exposure to those recruiting grounds to 1 or 2 games a year.

There are lots of potential division proposals that have been floated around (zipper, north/south, east/west) with a whole host of potential expansion teams (UCF, USF, Memphis, Cincy, Boise St, BYU, etc.), but each proposal ran into scheduling issues for current Big XII members. Either Texas and Oklahoma would end up split, or the non-Texas division would end up without enough games in Texas. Even potential south divisions wouldn't be happy, because only one of Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St could ever be in the title game in a given year, even if the north division is terrible.

Along comes the ACC proposal. Suddenly, the Big XII can expand to 12 or 14 teams without worrying about scheduling issues. They can pit their top 2 teams against each other in an exciting, ratings-monster championship game while retaining all current rivalries and while expanding into new markets.

If I were the AAC or MWC, I'd be on the lookout for potential poaching!
02-11-2014 05:58 PM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
Allowing greater flexibility is definitely a major stepping stone toward future realignment. Conferences are hesitant to move to 16 without a change. 4x4 pods make a ton of sense in scheduling, which could be one of the more used options.
02-11-2014 06:17 PM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
Interesting post.
02-11-2014 06:30 PM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 05:58 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  The ACC is bringing forth a proposal that would give conferences greater flexibility when it comes to determining the participants in the conference championship games. The proposal would allow conferences to do away with divisions and take the top 2 teams in the conference based on record, AP rank, etc.

The interesting thing about the abolition of divisions is that it allows much greater scheduling flexibility during the regular season. Rather than a team being forced to play 5 or 6 in-division games (at 12 and 14 teams, respectively) and limiting play against teams from the other division to 3 or 2 games, conferences could create much more balanced schedules that ensure that everyone (even in large conferences of 16 or 18 members) play each other 2 teams in 4 years.

So how does the Big XII fit in? For starters, the Big XII wants a championship game. Secondly, the Big XII wants to expand to keep up with the other power conferences, but they've been concerned about scheduling.

Under the current setup for instance, if the Big XII adds Cincy and Memphis, it could create a new Big XII North and have enough teams for a championship game. However, why would Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, and West Virginia want to play 5 games in the Big XII North and only 3 games against the South? Many of these teams' recruits come from Texas, and they would be limiting their exposure to those recruiting grounds to 1 or 2 games a year.

There are lots of potential division proposals that have been floated around (zipper, north/south, east/west) with a whole host of potential expansion teams (UCF, USF, Memphis, Cincy, Boise St, BYU, etc.), but each proposal ran into scheduling issues for current Big XII members. Either Texas and Oklahoma would end up split, or the non-Texas division would end up without enough games in Texas. Even potential south divisions wouldn't be happy, because only one of Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St could ever be in the title game in a given year, even if the north division is terrible.

Along comes the ACC proposal. Suddenly, the Big XII can expand to 12 or 14 teams without worrying about scheduling issues. They can pit their top 2 teams against each other in an exciting, ratings-monster championship game while retaining all current rivalries and while expanding into new markets.

If I were the AAC or MWC, I'd be on the lookout for potential poaching!

If the ACC gets what it wants, conferences can even be at odd numbers (like 15) and not have to worry about uneven divisions.

Example, the BiG could expand by 1 and the conference sticks with their 9 game conference schedule. Each team could have 4 permanent partners and then divide the other 10 teams in half, playing 5 of them H and A for two years and then the other 5 of them H and A the next two years.

Lots of possibilities if the ACC gets what it wants and what other conferences do with it as well. Could be interesting to see what the ramifications will be. Will it encourage further merger amongst G5 schools?

Cheers,
Neil
02-11-2014 07:07 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 06:17 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Allowing greater flexibility is definitely a major stepping stone toward future realignment. Conferences are hesitant to move to 16 without a change. 4x4 pods make a ton of sense in scheduling, which could be one of the more used options.

Actually, I think such a change might make the conferences that are now at 14 decide they no longer need to go to 16 to improve scheduling. You can give each school 3 permanent scheduling partners and rotating the remaining 10 schools at 5 each year, leaving four OOC games to insure 7 home games a year.

As for the Big 12, I don't think the other P5 conferences care if they expand by taking in AAC and/or MWC schools. And that's all that's available to them unless somebody does something stupid. Any moves along those lines won't trigger any retaliatory moves. That could prove to be bad news for those G5 conferences, but it won't move the needle much with the networks. There just aren't any blockbuster moves left.
02-11-2014 07:18 PM
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Eichorst Offline
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 07:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  Actually, I think such a change might make the conferences that are now at 14 decide they no longer need to go to 16 to improve scheduling. You can give each school 3 permanent scheduling partners and rotating the remaining 10 schools at 5 each year, leaving four OOC games to insure 7 home games a year.

I should have been more clear. I don't know that I'm implying that the B1G, SEC, or ACC will suddenly expand (though I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC continued to grow proactively), but I think this definitely incentivizes the Big XII to grow, which could cause enormous changes to the G5 conferences, which will in turn cause changes to the FCS. Ultimately, I think this advances the possibility of a P5 split.
02-11-2014 07:34 PM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 07:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-11-2014 06:17 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Allowing greater flexibility is definitely a major stepping stone toward future realignment. Conferences are hesitant to move to 16 without a change. 4x4 pods make a ton of sense in scheduling, which could be one of the more used options.

Actually, I think such a change might make the conferences that are now at 14 decide they no longer need to go to 16 to improve scheduling. You can give each school 3 permanent scheduling partners and rotating the remaining 10 schools at 5 each year, leaving four OOC games to insure 7 home games a year.

As for the Big 12, I don't think the other P5 conferences care if they expand by taking in AAC and/or MWC schools. And that's all that's available to them unless somebody does something stupid. Any moves along those lines won't trigger any retaliatory moves. That could prove to be bad news for those G5 conferences, but it won't move the needle much with the networks. There just aren't any blockbuster moves left.

The most recent full member P5 additions were:

Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt to the ACC
Mizzou, Texas A&M to the SEC
Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska to the B1G
Colorado, Utah to the PAC
TCU, West Virginia to the Big 12

I'd say about half of those additions don't quite qualify as "blockbuster" moves (in addition to some having average markets or mediocre-at-best athletics).
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2014 07:46 PM by HuskyU.)
02-11-2014 07:46 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 07:34 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  
(02-11-2014 07:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  Actually, I think such a change might make the conferences that are now at 14 decide they no longer need to go to 16 to improve scheduling. You can give each school 3 permanent scheduling partners and rotating the remaining 10 schools at 5 each year, leaving four OOC games to insure 7 home games a year.

I should have been more clear. I don't know that I'm implying that the B1G, SEC, or ACC will suddenly expand (though I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC continued to grow proactively), but I think this definitely incentivizes the Big XII to grow, which could cause enormous changes to the G5 conferences, which will in turn cause changes to the FCS. Ultimately, I think this advances the possibility of a P5 split.

I think it makes it a lot easier for the Big 12 to grow in that it removes a potential obstacle. I'm just not sure it incentivizes it. The only thing that will do that is if some network will pay the big bucks for it. I suspect their appetite is close to being satiated. At this point, the networks may actually prefer that the AAC and MWC remain viable, because they will be able to buy that product for a lot less than if they were in the Big 12 or PAC 12. And maybe they can even use those conferences to schedule games at times when the P5 would rather not play (like weeknights).
02-11-2014 07:49 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 07:49 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think it makes it a lot easier for the Big 12 to grow in that it removes a potential obstacle. I'm just not sure it incentivizes it. The only thing that will do that is if some network will pay the big bucks for it. I suspect their appetite is close to being satiated.

I agree. I think ESPN and Fox are sick and tired of conferences in the middle of a contract demanding more money every time they add more schools.

We may have reached the point where ESPN tells a conference, "Eh, we're not giving you another 'raise' unless you add Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Florida State, someone like that."
02-12-2014 02:17 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 07:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-11-2014 06:17 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Conferences are hesitant to move to 16 without a change. 4x4 pods make a ton of sense in scheduling, which could be one of the more used options.
Actually, I think such a change might make the conferences that are now at 14 decide they no longer need to go to 16 to improve scheduling. You can give each school 3 permanent scheduling partners and rotating the remaining 10 schools at 5 each year, leaving four OOC games to insure 7 home games a year.
Agree with ken d, I've actually heard some people from Auburn and UGA talking about that possibility. Purely at the idea/discussion stage for now, but an idea that is being taken seriously.
02-12-2014 02:27 AM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 05:58 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  The ACC is bringing forth a proposal that would give conferences greater flexibility when it comes to determining the participants in the conference championship games. The proposal would allow conferences to do away with divisions and take the top 2 teams in the conference based on record, AP rank, etc.

The interesting thing about the abolition of divisions is that it allows much greater scheduling flexibility during the regular season. Rather than a team being forced to play 5 or 6 in-division games (at 12 and 14 teams, respectively) and limiting play against teams from the other division to 3 or 2 games, conferences could create much more balanced schedules that ensure that everyone (even in large conferences of 16 or 18 members) play each other 2 teams in 4 years.

So how does the Big XII fit in? For starters, the Big XII wants a championship game. Secondly, the Big XII wants to expand to keep up with the other power conferences, but they've been concerned about scheduling.

Under the current setup for instance, if the Big XII adds Cincy and Memphis, it could create a new Big XII North and have enough teams for a championship game. However, why would Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, and West Virginia want to play 5 games in the Big XII North and only 3 games against the South? Many of these teams' recruits come from Texas, and they would be limiting their exposure to those recruiting grounds to 1 or 2 games a year.

There are lots of potential division proposals that have been floated around (zipper, north/south, east/west) with a whole host of potential expansion teams (UCF, USF, Memphis, Cincy, Boise St, BYU, etc.), but each proposal ran into scheduling issues for current Big XII members. Either Texas and Oklahoma would end up split, or the non-Texas division would end up without enough games in Texas. Even potential south divisions wouldn't be happy, because only one of Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St could ever be in the title game in a given year, even if the north division is terrible.

Along comes the ACC proposal. Suddenly, the Big XII can expand to 12 or 14 teams without worrying about scheduling issues. They can pit their top 2 teams against each other in an exciting, ratings-monster championship game while retaining all current rivalries and while expanding into new markets.

If I were the AAC or MWC, I'd be on the lookout for potential poaching!

If the ACC rule changes were approved, it would mean the top two teams in any conference could meet WITHOUT divisions for a conference championship game.... THAT would allow the Big 12 to continue their round robin and NOT have to expand to get a championship game.

Why slice up the revenue/money pie into smaller pieces, if you don't have to?
02-12-2014 04:42 AM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-12-2014 04:42 AM)IceJus10 Wrote:  
(02-11-2014 05:58 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  The ACC is bringing forth a proposal that would give conferences greater flexibility when it comes to determining the participants in the conference championship games. The proposal would allow conferences to do away with divisions and take the top 2 teams in the conference based on record, AP rank, etc.

The interesting thing about the abolition of divisions is that it allows much greater scheduling flexibility during the regular season. Rather than a team being forced to play 5 or 6 in-division games (at 12 and 14 teams, respectively) and limiting play against teams from the other division to 3 or 2 games, conferences could create much more balanced schedules that ensure that everyone (even in large conferences of 16 or 18 members) play each other 2 teams in 4 years.

So how does the Big XII fit in? For starters, the Big XII wants a championship game. Secondly, the Big XII wants to expand to keep up with the other power conferences, but they've been concerned about scheduling.

Under the current setup for instance, if the Big XII adds Cincy and Memphis, it could create a new Big XII North and have enough teams for a championship game. However, why would Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, and West Virginia want to play 5 games in the Big XII North and only 3 games against the South? Many of these teams' recruits come from Texas, and they would be limiting their exposure to those recruiting grounds to 1 or 2 games a year.

There are lots of potential division proposals that have been floated around (zipper, north/south, east/west) with a whole host of potential expansion teams (UCF, USF, Memphis, Cincy, Boise St, BYU, etc.), but each proposal ran into scheduling issues for current Big XII members. Either Texas and Oklahoma would end up split, or the non-Texas division would end up without enough games in Texas. Even potential south divisions wouldn't be happy, because only one of Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St could ever be in the title game in a given year, even if the north division is terrible.

Along comes the ACC proposal. Suddenly, the Big XII can expand to 12 or 14 teams without worrying about scheduling issues. They can pit their top 2 teams against each other in an exciting, ratings-monster championship game while retaining all current rivalries and while expanding into new markets.

If I were the AAC or MWC, I'd be on the lookout for potential poaching!

If the ACC rule changes were approved, it would mean the top two teams in any conference could meet WITHOUT divisions for a conference championship game.... THAT would allow the Big 12 to continue their round robin and NOT have to expand to get a championship game.

Why slice up the revenue/money pie into smaller pieces, if you don't have to?

Depends on how much the rule is actually changed. It could be changed to allow conferences with 12 or more schools to choose the participants in their championship games without having divisions. It may even be changed to allow semi-finals but the 12 team limit might remain.
02-12-2014 08:26 AM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 05:58 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  The ACC is bringing forth a proposal that would give conferences greater flexibility when it comes to determining the participants in the conference championship games. The proposal would allow conferences to do away with divisions and take the top 2 teams in the conference based on record, AP rank, etc.

The interesting thing about the abolition of divisions is that it allows much greater scheduling flexibility during the regular season. Rather than a team being forced to play 5 or 6 in-division games (at 12 and 14 teams, respectively) and limiting play against teams from the other division to 3 or 2 games, conferences could create much more balanced schedules that ensure that everyone (even in large conferences of 16 or 18 members) play each other 2 teams in 4 years.

So how does the Big XII fit in? For starters, the Big XII wants a championship game. Secondly, the Big XII wants to expand to keep up with the other power conferences, but they've been concerned about scheduling.

Under the current setup for instance, if the Big XII adds Cincy and Memphis, it could create a new Big XII North and have enough teams for a championship game. However, why would Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, and West Virginia want to play 5 games in the Big XII North and only 3 games against the South? Many of these teams' recruits come from Texas, and they would be limiting their exposure to those recruiting grounds to 1 or 2 games a year.

There are lots of potential division proposals that have been floated around (zipper, north/south, east/west) with a whole host of potential expansion teams (UCF, USF, Memphis, Cincy, Boise St, BYU, etc.), but each proposal ran into scheduling issues for current Big XII members. Either Texas and Oklahoma would end up split, or the non-Texas division would end up without enough games in Texas. Even potential south divisions wouldn't be happy, because only one of Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St could ever be in the title game in a given year, even if the north division is terrible.

Along comes the ACC proposal. Suddenly, the Big XII can expand to 12 or 14 teams without worrying about scheduling issues. They can pit their top 2 teams against each other in an exciting, ratings-monster championship game while retaining all current rivalries and while expanding into new markets.

If I were the AAC or MWC, I'd be on the lookout for potential poaching!

Two things.....

According to all reliable reports, the Big12 does not want a CCG and they do not want to expand..
02-12-2014 10:17 AM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
Link.
02-12-2014 10:29 AM
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Eagle78 Offline
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Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-12-2014 10:29 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Link.


http://www.newsandsentinel.com/page/cont...l?nav=5064
02-12-2014 10:37 AM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
Leagues getting the ability to have a 2 game playoff with say 4 pods of 4, 3 pods of 6 or who knows 4 pods of 6 would bring about movement.
02-12-2014 10:48 AM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-11-2014 07:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-11-2014 06:17 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Allowing greater flexibility is definitely a major stepping stone toward future realignment. Conferences are hesitant to move to 16 without a change. 4x4 pods make a ton of sense in scheduling, which could be one of the more used options.

Actually, I think such a change might make the conferences that are now at 14 decide they no longer need to go to 16 to improve scheduling. You can give each school 3 permanent scheduling partners and rotating the remaining 10 schools at 5 each year, leaving four OOC games to insure 7 home games a year.

As for the Big 12, I don't think the other P5 conferences care if they expand by taking in AAC and/or MWC schools. And that's all that's available to them unless somebody does something stupid. Any moves along those lines won't trigger any retaliatory moves. That could prove to be bad news for those G5 conferences, but it won't move the needle much with the networks. There just aren't any blockbuster moves left.
It could make it easier for 14 team conferences to bide their time until attractive candidates break free of GoRs or other constraints they may have.
02-12-2014 10:50 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-12-2014 10:17 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  According to all reliable reports, the Big12 does not want a CCG and they do not want to expand…
My understanding is slightly different. I'd say the Big <12 doesn't want to expand, and is willing to forego a CCG if expanding to 12 is a pre-requisite for having one. But I don't think they are necessarily against having a CCG, in and of itself.
02-12-2014 10:58 AM
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RE: Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-12-2014 10:17 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Two things.....

According to all reliable reports, the Big12 does not want a CCG and they do not want to expand..

I do not believe that for a second. I've read the same reports, but the Big XII is basically leaving money on the table for no reason whatsoever by not having a championship game. Additionally, expansion with AAC and MWC members does not mean that they need to give a full share. The Big XII was founded on unequal distributions of TV money, so there's no reason to think they won't give unequal distributions to future members.

I think the Big XII has an exciting product, but I think they with only 10 members, they reduce their chances of getting a team to the 4-team playoff. Only once since 2010 has the Big XII had a team in the final BCS Top 4 before bowl selections, and that might get worse over the next decade while the other 4 power conferences each have more members. I think if access to the playoff is important, getting to 12 or 14 members is imperative for the conference. And if they can't steal from the other power conferences, they must steal from the AAC and MWC.

Just some thoughts, but I disagree with the Big XII statement's that they're happy where they're at. I think that's just lip service.
02-12-2014 11:00 AM
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Eagle78 Offline
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Why the new title game rules will spark the next round of expansion
(02-12-2014 10:50 AM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  
(02-11-2014 07:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-11-2014 06:17 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Allowing greater flexibility is definitely a major stepping stone toward future realignment. Conferences are hesitant to move to 16 without a change. 4x4 pods make a ton of sense in scheduling, which could be one of the more used options.

Actually, I think such a change might make the conferences that are now at 14 decide they no longer need to go to 16 to improve scheduling. You can give each school 3 permanent scheduling partners and rotating the remaining 10 schools at 5 each year, leaving four OOC games to insure 7 home games a year.

As for the Big 12, I don't think the other P5 conferences care if they expand by taking in AAC and/or MWC schools. And that's all that's available to them unless somebody does something stupid. Any moves along those lines won't trigger any retaliatory moves. That could prove to be bad news for those G5 conferences, but it won't move the needle much with the networks. There just aren't any blockbuster moves left.
It could make it easier for 14 team conferences to bide their time until attractive candidates break free of GoRs or other constraints they may have.


I am not sure what you mean by "candidates" "[breaking] free of GORs". From what I understand, GORs by their very nature cannot be broken unless there is provable fraud involved in their construction - something that would seem very far-fetched given the sophistication of the parties that entered into the agreements.

From what has been widely reported, these GORs are a sale of property rights from one entity to another. There are no issues involving the amount of liquidated damages, etc. as is the case for exit fees. Think of it like selling a house. Once the house is sold, it is sold. Neither party can simply say "I have changed my mind" or I want to after-the-fact "adjust the terms of the sale". No, once the house is sold, it is sold. Nothing can be changed unless some kind of provable fraud was involved. The sale has been transacted and has concluded.

Now, unlike a home sale, these GORs do expire around the middle of the next decade. Of coure, as also been widely reported, NO GOR can bind a school to a conference. They can still leave, but the media rights they sold to the conference will remain until the end of the GOR.

Finally, people seem to forget that the entities that signed these GORs did so voluntarily and unanimously which, IMO, makes the contention that any school would now be looking to "break" a GOR - even if they could - somewhat laughable.

IMO, I think there will be a sustained pause in any realignment until the expiration or near-expiration of the GORs (and even then, it would be anybody's guess as to what the environment will be at that time), or other schools not currently part of a GOR are involved (and, IMO, in that case, the issue will be which of these schools are accretive to a conference).

Just my two cents.
02-12-2014 12:01 PM
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