I could see the Texahoma 4 going to PAC.

Could see the B1G scooping up 2 other schools to get 16.


But does the SEC ever meet 16 without 2 of the ACC- NC/VA schools?
Would the ACC feel the need to go to 16 if the SEC didn't?

What happens to who's left? Do we see 1, 2, 3 or 4 conferences of 16?


Or does the B12 stay put and we work with what we have going forward?

I hope not. It is an artificial number or grouping.

Two things most likely to trigger it:

1) The B1G gets aggressive again and expands to 16 thus triggering another wave of realignment that could see some or all the other P conferences going to 16

2) The B12 collapses at the end of its GOR and its former members do their best to get taken in by the remaining 4 P conferences. Some will make it but several (probably at least 3-4) are SOL because they just aren't that appealing.

(02-08-2014 05:32 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Two things most likely to trigger it:

1) The B1G gets aggressive again and expands to 16 thus triggering another wave of realignment that could see some or all the other P conferences going to 16

2) The B12 collapses at the end of its GOR and its former members do their best to get taken in by the remaining 4 P conferences. Some will make it but several (probably at least 3-4) are SOL because they just aren't that appealing.

I mostly agree with above post, in the long term I see 4 power conferences once TV contracts get close to renewal. IMO it will be the PAC, SEC, ACC and B1G. The B12 will divided up into the the other 4, and anyone left out will try and create of Best of the Rest CF Conference mostly from AAC and MWC teams to maximize TV dollars.

No.

I could tolerate an 8x8 but not a 4x16.

(02-08-2014 05:56 PM)ULdave Wrote:  I could tolerate an 8x8 but not a 4x16.

16 is no longer a conference. Its a TV contractual arrangement.

But no, its not going to happen.

Yes, in 2 to 5 years. But it might wind up being three 16 team conferences plus 1 all but football (N.D.) and one twelve, or fourteen, or sixteen team conference (PAC).

Okay well let's say Baylor, TCU, Iowa State and one of either K-State or WV is left after the first 6 are plucked. Who takes 'em? Why on earth does the ACC/SEC take either of the first 3 just to get 16? Nothing against them, it's just their value is in the B12 and being associated with the other B12 schools. I could see WVU and K-state in certain scenarios.

Do we see any shuffling or poaching between the P*4* at this point?

Those 4 (BU/TCU/ISU/KSU) have the most to fear from a B12 collapse because they arent that valuable to any of the surrounding P conferences. In all likelihood they'd snatch some combo of AAC and MWC to rebuild the B12, but it'll be like the post raid BE and no longer a player

There's maybe a handful of schools whose decisions could cause the sort of fallout that would lead to an entire conference being eliminated (Texas, UNC, UND, FSU) but they all seem happy in their current situations. The various GORs make movement even less likely, and I'm not sure there's the desire or will right now among any school currently in a P5 conference to make a move. There could be minor movement, but not the widespread chaos needed to get to 4 conferences.

Expansion has even driven by a desire to add TVs for conference networks. A la carte programming will turn that paradigm on its ear. I believe a la carte programming is inevitable and will spark realignment resulting in 6 or more regional major conferences of 12 or fewer members that restore many historic rivalries.

We had our chance at 6 x 12:

Pac 12 - stays as is
Big 10 - stays at 12 (no Rutgers or Maryland)
ACC - reverts to 12 (keeps Maryland, no Louisville, Pittsburgh, or Syracuse)
SEC - reverts to 12 (no Missouri or Texas A&M)

Here's where it gets messy:

With Nebraska and Colorado the only departures from the Big 12, this would have made adding TCU and West Virginia that much more questionable. The Big 12 still would be able to offer more money than the Big East, but would not be in such desperation to rapidly expand the footprint. My guess is that Louisville and Cincinnati get to head to the Big 12 North with Missouri, Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State. Texas A&M reluctantly presses on in the Big 12 South.

With Louisville and Cincinnati gone from the Big East, but Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Syracuse, and TCU staying, the Big East holds the last golden tickets, but still has to worry about satisfying the non-football half of the conference. A large part of it may depend if Notre Dame would be required to join a conference or not in a 6 x 12 alignment. Central Florida and Houston both get added to push the Big East to a 9/17 alignment, or 10/17 if Notre Dame is a football member. Brigham Young and Boise State all get added for football only, with perhaps another school like San Diego State getting an offer to join for football if Notre Dame is allowed to remain a football independent.

Big East National - Boise State*, South Florida, TCU, Rutgers, West Virginia, San Diego State*
Big East American - BYU*, Central Florida, Houston, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

MWC West - Hawaii*, UNLV, San Jose State, Nevada, Idaho, Fresno State
MWC Mountain - NMSU, New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah State

(02-08-2014 06:58 PM)prp Wrote:  There's maybe a handful of schools whose decisions could cause the sort of fallout that would lead to an entire conference being eliminated (Texas, UNC, UND, FSU) but they all seem happy in their current situations. The various GORs make movement even less likely, and I'm not sure there's the desire or will right now among any school currently in a P5 conference to make a move. There could be minor movement, but not the widespread chaos needed to get to 4 conferences.

I have to agree with you.

The B12 after losing Nebraska, Colorado, TAMU, Missouri is no longer a peer conference of the B1G, SEC or PAC but with Texas and Oklahoma still there its developing into an ACC type conference.

I also feel like 14 is as large as the power conferences want to go in the forseable future with the B1G, ACC and SEC all sitting at 14. Who would have thought those leagues would be going beyond 12 five years ago? The PAC in the long term could benefit by going to 14 with UNLV, Boise State. Don't look at their academics now but where they could be in 10-15 years.

The B12 will be back to 12 in short order I believe because of the new playoff system puts any conference at less than 12 at a disadvantage. It won't be perfect but for Texas and Oklahoma it will do.

86

2 divisions of 10
6 divisions of 11

Divisions designed to foster regional rivalries, save money on travel.

West - 11
UCLA
USC
Cal
Stanford
Arizona
Arizona St
Fresno St
SDSU
Hawaii
UNLV
Nevada

Northwest - 11
Oregon
Oregon St
Washington
Washington St
Utah
BYU
Colo
Colo St
Air Force
Wyoming
Boise St

Southwest - 11
Texas
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Baylor
TCU
SMU
Tulane
Houston
New Mexico
Memphis

Midwest - 10
Nebraska
Kansas
Kansas St
Iowa
Iowa St
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
Tulsa
Missouri
Minnesota

Mideast - 10
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northwestern
Indiana
Purdue
Notre Dame
Michigan
Michigan St
Ohio St
Cincy

Southeast - 11
LSU
Miss St
Miss
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Louisville
West Virginia
East Carolina

Atlantic Coast - 11
Florida
Florida St
Miami
Georgia
Georgia Tech
South Carolina
Clemson
NC State
Wake Forest
UCF
USF

East - 11
Duke
North Carolina
Virginia
Va Tech
Maryland
Penn St
Pitt
Syracuse
Boston College
UConn
Rutgers

Not perfect. Temple, Utah St and San Jose St left out.

I don't think the B12 will be hurt by no champ game. 1/2 the time these champ games are a real good strong 1/2 of the conf school vs a 2 or 3 loss school from the other side. That helps nothing and can hurt with an upset. A 12-0 B12 champ isn't going to be left out. most of the time neither will an 11-1 champ.

(02-09-2014 09:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I don't think the B12 will be hurt by no champ game. 1/2 the time these champ games are a real good strong 1/2 of the conf school vs a 2 or 3 loss school from the other side. That helps nothing and can hurt with an upset. A 12-0 B12 champ isn't going to be left out. most of the time neither will an 11-1 champ.

For now...

If what the ACC proposed goes through, it'll just be the best 2 teams in the conference playing for the conference championship. More than likely other P5s will adopt these same guidelines. That means the championship games will likely feature 2 top 5/10/15/20 teams. An 11-1 ACC champion beating another highly ranked opponent in its championship game is going to look a lot better than an 11-1 Big 12 Champion that ended its season beating an unranked conference opponent in a non-championship game.

No

(02-09-2014 09:49 AM)westwolf Wrote:  No

I agree.

The theory behind 4x16 is to set up some perfect playoff system where 4 CCG winners move on directly to the CFP semifinals.

At this point, I would suggest that the momentum is more towards expanding the CFP to 8 schools, with the P5 conference champions qualifying automatically. This completely eliminates the need for 4x16.

In my view, though, the key school in all of this is Texas. If they want to relocate following the current round of GOR's, this would trigger another significant round of realignment that could end in 4 major conferences. If they want the B12 to stay together (as their little fiefdom), there will continue to be five P5 conferences.

(02-08-2014 05:08 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I hope not. It is an artificial number or grouping.

+2