RE: Cincinnati wants out of the American
Had the Big 12 taken Louisville and Cincinnati to go along with West Virginia, I think everyone involved would be pleased right now. The B12 would be viable and it would have a strong presence in the deep in talent Ohio Valley. Alas, they took a more shortsighted approach and it bit them in the arse a bit, IMHO, when the ACC surprised everyone by taking the Cardinals instead of UConn to replace Maryland.
BTW, while the conventional wisdom seems to be that there is some sort of a pecking order, I don't necessarily agree with that premise. I think it is very situational. The Louisville for Maryland swap is one such example and another is that when the ACC expanded in 2011 they didn't even consider Rutgers for either spot No. 13 or 14. And yet when the Big Ten expanded to 14 teams a short time later, RU was at the top of their wish list (or so they say).
I agree with the Cincy poster that their best fit is unquestionably the ACC. They are closer geographically to that league than any league not named the Big Ten, there is a ton of academic prestige associated with the ACC and their longtime rival, Louisville is already in that league. Also, though their history with Pitt and Syracuse is brief, there is still at least some history there so it's not a total non-factor.
However, I just don't see the ACC as being a likely home for the Bearcats for the foreseeable future as I don't see the impetus that would cause the league to expand to 16 or more teams? I mean sure it could happen but short of Notre Dame joining as a full member, I doubt it very much.
Now, the ACC could be raided again, as it was for Maryland, but again, that seems unlikely to me. Also, even if the league were raided, that would probably be bad news for UC.
Why?
Well, it's all about that situational thing. I believe that if the ACC is raided again, that league would almost have to be the SEC or B1G. No other potential suitor is really much of a threat, IMHO. However, for the hell of it, let's say that the SEC gets nervous over FSU's run of success and decides, "Hey, if you can beat them, join them (or have them join you)."
Were that to happen, I think the ACC's first move would be to shore up its Florida presence and to give Miami another potential rival. That is why I would bet the ranch that either USF or (my bet) UCF would be the choice to replace the Seminoles, not UC.
This is all very complex and fluid and I wish Cincy nothing but the best but I think they're stuck in the AAC for the next several years until the Big Ten and Southeastern Conferences get itchy trigger fingers again.
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