There are about 250 schools in D-I football. Based on current trends, I expect that eventually these will be divided into three more or less equal sized subdivisions. The top level would likely be the P5 plus the MWC and AAC. The second level would include the rest of what is now FBS (MAC, Sun Belt, CUSA) plus several of the stronger FCS leagues, including the Missouri Valley, Colonial, Ohio Valley and maybe one or two more.

If that happens, and NIU is going to be in the second level whether they are in the MAC or the MVC, they might well feel the latter suits them. I think realignment within this subdivision would be likely, since many current affiliations came about primarily for access to the FBS rather than other affinity reasons. I could easily see schools like Ark State, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Northern Illinois, Southern Illinois, Ball State, Western Ky, Middle Tennessee and others come together in that scenario.

I would see that second level continuing to have access to bowls plus a separate four team playoff of its own.

(01-30-2014 04:57 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  Not sure about NIU, but Memphis would have to like their chances of making a bowl in that lineup.

Memphis will be making bowls in the AAC.

Missouri State on its own to the Sun Belt makes more sense to me. Murray State out of Kentucky and UT-Chattanooga out of Tennessee would be good adds or replacements down the road. With UM now in the SEC, having Missouri State in the de facto SEC minors would be beneficial for them.

the only way NIU is leaving the MAC is for warmer waters - aka the AAC. The same goes for Buffalo, Ohio, and pretty much any of the MAC schools. Its the only "low tier" FBS conference with any sentiment of stability. A new conference filled with other have-nots and FCS call-ups will not attract them away from the MAC unless the conference implodes. They won't be leaving for CUSA and definitely not for the hypothetical CAC. They are basically AAC or stay MAC.

Poor Indiana State, can't get no respect.

Im not sure any established school would be interested in leaving a conference to start a new conference with no auto-bids that would include that many move-up FCS schools. I just don't think this is a very appealing option to most of current FBS schools that are mentioned in the proposal.

I had hoped that schools like Montana, Montana State, NDSU etc. would have moved up to FBS and saved the WAC in the process, that would have been an interesting conference to watch. Oh well. I don't see any place they can go now.

(01-31-2014 05:33 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I had hoped that schools like Montana, Montana State, NDSU etc. would have moved up to FBS and saved the WAC in the process, that would have been an interesting conference to watch. Oh well. I don't see any place they can go now.

On another thread, I suggested that if the P5 want do be able to control their own destiny, they would insist on a new football division within the NCAA. This division would include any school whose average annual average home attendance is 30,000 or more or who are accepted in a conference which averages 30,000 or more. If the P5 conferences remain exactly as they are now (including all announced moves), there would likely be no more than two other conferences that would qualify,

The Mountain West would have to drop its lowest drawing members and add two more schools to get its average over 30,000. It would then consist of:

Air Force
Boise
Nevada
Fresno
Hawaii
San Diego State
UT San Antonio
UTEP

The AAC would also have to shed a few teams, and would be left with:

Cincinnati
Houston
Memphis
UConn
USF
Temple
UCF
East Carolina
Navy
Army

Including independents BYU and Notre Dame, this division consists of 84 schools.

By bringing in a few of the strongest FCS conferences into the mix, you would then have a reconstituted FBS with 71 schools in 8 conferences, limited by rule to no more than 10 teams and required to play a full round robin schedule. These are:

MAC
Buffalo
Akron
Bowling Green
Kent State
Miami(O)
Ohio
Toledo
Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan

CUSA
Southern Miss
UAB
FIU
FAU
Troy
South Alabama
Georgia Southern
Old Dominion
Appalachian St
Charlotte

SunBelt
SMU
Tulsa
Tulane
Rice
Texas State
North Texas
LA-Lafayette
LA-Monroe

WAC
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Wyoming
Colorado St
Utah St
UNLV
San Jose St
Idaho

Central Athletic Conference
Ball State
Northern Illinois
MTSU
Western Ky
Arkansas St
Marshall
LA Tech
Missouri St

Missouri Valley
N Dakota St
S Dakota St
S Dakota
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Western Illinois
Illinois St
Indiana St
Youngstown St

Colonial
UMass
Towson
Villanova
New Hampshire
Wm & Mary
Maine
Richmond
James Madison
Delaware

Ohio Valley
Eastern Illinois
Jacksonville St
Tennessee St
UT Martin
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Kentucky
Murray State
SE Missouri State
Austin Peay

To make this more palatable (the current FBS schools aren't going to want to drop down in class) you'd have to throw them a bone or two. Maybe big bones. For example, some substantial revenue support for a playoff for this group, and allowing the top tier teams to schedule two buy games a year against these teams (and no games with the third tier teams). Limiting the number of bowls for the top tier to leave more for this division. Things like that.

There's room to add a few teams (like a Montana, for example) but I wouldn't want to break the rule about requiring a full round robin. But out of a pool of about 100, there aren't that many schools in the third tier that could realistically compete for the championship of this division.

Just my two cents (adjusted for inflation, apparently).

(01-31-2014 12:53 AM)DexterDevil Wrote:  Way this would happen is if MSU and ArkST went to MAC west, them+Ball State, NIU, Toledo, and either Western Michigan/Ohio broke off the MAC, basis of 6 right there for a new FBS conference granted MSU is no longer a transitional. Potential adds would be to get to 10 to start, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Western Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, Mid Tenn, maybe UT-C and NDSU.

Would set up a conference good in basketball and high potential for football.

Would no else see the potential and enjoyment out of having NIU, Toledo, Ohio, Western Kentucky, ArkSt, MidTenn, and Ball State together? Minus NIU they all are decent in basketball, you add MoState, Illinois State, and Eastern Kentucky and that's a solid football and basketball conference, add Wichita State for basketball and Olympics and if they add football then add a NorthernIowa type team.

Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

Part of the problem with the Missouri Valley Conference is that it's a legally separate entity from the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Only 5 schools are members of both leagues:

Illinois State
Indiana State
Missouri State
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois

If Wichita State started football, there would be no problem for the six schools to start a new league that would have an automatic bid in all sports including the FCS Playoffs, assuming the league could agree on who would be members seven and eight.

Bradley, Drake, Evansville, and Loyola-IL would be in a bit of a jam. All are in the Summit's footprint, but ORU is the only other private school in the league, and all four would push the Summit to 13, or 14 if UMKC returns. If all four joined the Horizon League, it would push them to 13 members. The Atlantic Sun or even OVC could make a run at Evansville as well.

(01-30-2014 05:05 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  First problem it has is you have to start with 8 existing FBS members to form it and invite the potential move ups in because you have to be a legal FBS conference to extend bona fide invitiations.

Second problem not very likely that AAC schools would defect for such.

Nor would NIU

My word people... The only D4 like proposal that has gotten any traction is FBS + Big East and maybe the A10 and WCC. People who scream that the P5 want their own division are

1 - P5 Tee Shirt fans who don't realize that teams like Ohio State makes a 5 million dollar profit on home games against G5 teams. with the current FBS arrangement most P5 schools can set up 7 or eight home games (and some years 9 for conferences moving to a nine game slate). Without the G5 that goes away and means the loss of about 10 Million dollars a year (and the TV rights to two home games).

2 - G5 Tee Shirt fans who dream that if there is a big split the Big12 will take them, or that the P5 will add on Memphis for ***** and giggles dividing their pie up further.

3 - Some deluded FCS fans who think the occasional upset over an FBS club means their team is "ready" for the move and that the current G5 conferences will willingly fall back with them

4 - Anyone who is not aware that the current contract for the football playoff FBS level teams pretty much locks in all ten conferences until at least 2020.

Any changes will be teams shuffling in the FBS and maybe the occasional FCS call up... The MAC is not going to 16, no sensible G5 is going to 16 (money payouts stop at 12). If the Big12 takes teams it will be UConn and Cincy, maybe UCF. Then the AAC will raid and maybe two more FCS teams come up.

(02-01-2014 11:50 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  My word people... The only D4 like proposal that has gotten any traction is FBS + Big East and maybe the A10 and WCC. People who scream that the P5 want their own division are

1 - P5 Tee Shirt fans who don't realize that teams like Ohio State makes a 5 million dollar profit on home games against G5 teams. with the current FBS arrangement most P5 schools can set up 7 or eight home games (and some years 9 for conferences moving to a nine game slate). Without the G5 that goes away and means the loss of about 10 Million dollars a year (and the TV rights to two home games).

2 - G5 Tee Shirt fans who dream that if there is a big split the Big12 will take them, or that the P5 will add on Memphis for ***** and giggles dividing their pie up further.

3 - Some deluded FCS fans who think the occasional upset over an FBS club means their team is "ready" for the move and that the current G5 conferences will willingly fall back with them

4 - Anyone who is not aware that the current contract for the football playoff FBS level teams pretty much locks in all ten conferences until at least 2020.

Any changes will be teams shuffling in the FBS and maybe the occasional FCS call up... The MAC is not going to 16, no sensible G5 is going to 16 (money payouts stop at 12). If the Big12 takes teams it will be UConn and Cincy, maybe UCF. Then the AAC will raid and maybe two more FCS teams come up.

And no one has ever been able to articulate the problem solved by a split of just the five, nor a split that takes two welfare cases rather than the current five.

(02-01-2014 12:22 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(02-01-2014 11:50 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  My word people... The only D4 like proposal that has gotten any traction is FBS + Big East and maybe the A10 and WCC. People who scream that the P5 want their own division are

1 - P5 Tee Shirt fans who don't realize that teams like Ohio State makes a 5 million dollar profit on home games against G5 teams. with the current FBS arrangement most P5 schools can set up 7 or eight home games (and some years 9 for conferences moving to a nine game slate). Without the G5 that goes away and means the loss of about 10 Million dollars a year (and the TV rights to two home games).

2 - G5 Tee Shirt fans who dream that if there is a big split the Big12 will take them, or that the P5 will add on Memphis for ***** and giggles dividing their pie up further.

3 - Some deluded FCS fans who think the occasional upset over an FBS club means their team is "ready" for the move and that the current G5 conferences will willingly fall back with them

4 - Anyone who is not aware that the current contract for the football playoff FBS level teams pretty much locks in all ten conferences until at least 2020.

Any changes will be teams shuffling in the FBS and maybe the occasional FCS call up... The MAC is not going to 16, no sensible G5 is going to 16 (money payouts stop at 12). If the Big12 takes teams it will be UConn and Cincy, maybe UCF. Then the AAC will raid and maybe two more FCS teams come up.

And no one has ever been able to articulate the problem solved by a split of just the five, nor a split that takes two welfare cases rather than the current five.

The two welfare cases would solve his issue #1. Beyond that, it solves nothing.

The real answer is for FBS football to be in its own division. FBS on its own could provide a perfectly acceptable 64 team field for the NCAA tourney. It will provide 74 bowl teams right now.

If its an issue, 10 "at large slots" could be reserved for the best of the left behind Division-1 schools. D-1 could then have its own NCAA tourney with 64 teams, plus they would have landed 10 in the big NCAA tourney. There would still be 210-220 schools left in D1. Plenty of schools there to have a playoff. That would spell an end to the NIT and CIT---but does that really matter?

As a Toledo fan the one other item the MAC brings to the table is a bus travel league. This footprint requires planes. Does not make sense economically to do this. I also do not see fans lining up to see the likes of this bunch in the Glass Bowl


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ummmmm NO!

(01-30-2014 04:37 PM)MSUBear42 Wrote:  A member of MissouriState.247sports.com came up with this one... Not sure which current league it would stem from, but it would be a pretty good conference.

curious to why in the original thread you said you liked this list minus Ohio.