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Overall the computer models are quite good, but obviously not perfect. I really like the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) because it is composed of about 22 model members, and consequently gives you a better feel for different possibilities with any given storm system. However when looking at the details, there are still several events that fall outside of the ensemble of possibilities. This was not one of those cases. If you looked at the average snowfall from the SREF Monday evening, you would have concluded Birmingham had no concerns. But if you looked at the maximum snowfall possible from any given single member of the ensemble, this worst case scenario captured the timing and intensity of the metropolitan Birmingham's snowfall. Unfortunately the SREF is not considered to be an operational forecast system. The operational models are deterministic, and the associated forecasts are too deterministic as well. Always have been! Users aren't given the full picture of possible scenarios upon which to make decisions.

Would officials have made better decisions if they were told there was a 5-10% probability that Birmingham would get 2-3 inches of snow from this event? Would they have closed schools, closed businesses, and sanded roads before hand?

I don't know. But I do know if they had gone to all that trouble and nothing happened, they and the forecasters would have been criticized to the Nth degree. It has happened many times in the past.

My whole point is the way our forecasts are presented have always been too deterministic. It's this scenario and this scenario only. Probabilities are only given with respect to the chances of precipitation, and the general public struggles to even understand what they mean.

Furthermore, NWS offices are constantly conferring with each other regarding the forecast everyday. The Birmingham and Atlanta offices had similar forecasts because they had coordinated with each other throughout the lead up to the event. They also coordinated with the national center (NCEP) up in the DC area. These folks deal with winter storms all winter long, and pass along their guidance. The NWS offices have also had extensive winter weather training. But for the most part, forecasters live and die by the computer models.

I went to bed last night with a forecast that said it would be partly cloudy today with a high of 42. ZERO percent chance of precipitation. I awoke to freezing rain and sleet. The NWS didn't issue a freezing rain advisory until it had been falling for nearly an hour. However, the local sheriff's department had issued multiple warnings via social media, as it was responding to dozens of wrecks on county roads.

Additionally, if you go to weather.gov right now, and enter my zip code, you will see a current condition of "a few clouds and breezy. 35 degrees." The handy-dandy thermometer my neighbor installed behind our apartments, which is large enough to be seen from space (old neighbors = bad eyesight) says it's 24 degrees. Also, ice is falling from the sky in copious amounts. Where I live, weather forecasts are not only rarely right, the CURRENT CONDITIONS are rarely right. Sometimes, I find it hard to believe this is the modern age.

(01-30-2014 10:03 AM)Grammar-Nazi Wrote:  I went to bed last night with a forecast that said it would be partly cloudy today with a high of 42. ZERO percent chance of precipitation. I awoke to freezing rain and sleet. The NWS didn't issue a freezing rain advisory until it had been falling for nearly an hour. However, the local sheriff's department had issued multiple warnings via social media, as it was responding to dozens of wrecks on county roads.

Additionally, if you go to weather.gov right now, and enter my zip code, you will see a current condition of "a few clouds and breezy. 35 degrees." The handy-dandy thermometer my neighbor installed behind our apartments, which is large enough to be seen from space (old neighbors = bad eyesight) says it's 24 degrees. Also, ice is falling from the sky in copious amounts. Where I live, weather forecasts are not only rarely right, the CURRENT CONDITIONS are rarely right. Sometimes, I find it hard to believe this is the modern age.

This is the NWS forecast I got for Indianola.

Quote:Today
Rain and snow likely before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 23 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Somebody must have finally updated the forecast.

(01-30-2014 10:12 AM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 10:03 AM)Grammar-Nazi Wrote:  I went to bed last night with a forecast that said it would be partly cloudy today with a high of 42. ZERO percent chance of precipitation. I awoke to freezing rain and sleet. The NWS didn't issue a freezing rain advisory until it had been falling for nearly an hour. However, the local sheriff's department had issued multiple warnings via social media, as it was responding to dozens of wrecks on county roads.

Additionally, if you go to weather.gov right now, and enter my zip code, you will see a current condition of "a few clouds and breezy. 35 degrees." The handy-dandy thermometer my neighbor installed behind our apartments, which is large enough to be seen from space (old neighbors = bad eyesight) says it's 24 degrees. Also, ice is falling from the sky in copious amounts. Where I live, weather forecasts are not only rarely right, the CURRENT CONDITIONS are rarely right. Sometimes, I find it hard to believe this is the modern age.

This is the NWS forecast I got for Indianola.

Quote:Today
Rain and snow likely before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 23 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Somebody must have finally updated the forecast.

Except I'm in Maryville, Mo., today, where I teach. I commute back to Indianola on the weekends. Which, this time of the year, can be quite the experience.

It also doesn't help that the current conditions are based upon extrapolation, because the nearest actual NWS observation station is nearly 50 miles away. In the Midwest, 50 miles can mean 50 degrees on certain days. You really have no idea what the weather is going to be in rural areas like Maryville based upon weather forecasts, because they are always forecasts for urban areas up to 100 miles away. For Maryville, all of our weather forecasting comes from Kansas City, and is designed for Kansas City. We are 90 miles north from that, and so the "forecast" we get, as well as "current conditions" are more or less true guesses, and not based on actual observation of the vast swaths of farmland around us that many urban areas -- and those working in them -- forget are actually occupied by people, not just cows.

So I think the takeaway is this... If it is 20 degrees outside and there is any precipitation in the forecast for your location (or SOUTH of your location) that day... think really long and hard about just staying home.

The forecasts after lack precision as to where rain will and will not hit all the time. That's what happened here. The only reason it's a big deal is that the air was colder.

(01-30-2014 10:17 AM)Grammar-Nazi Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 10:12 AM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 10:03 AM)Grammar-Nazi Wrote:  I went to bed last night with a forecast that said it would be partly cloudy today with a high of 42. ZERO percent chance of precipitation. I awoke to freezing rain and sleet. The NWS didn't issue a freezing rain advisory until it had been falling for nearly an hour. However, the local sheriff's department had issued multiple warnings via social media, as it was responding to dozens of wrecks on county roads.

Additionally, if you go to weather.gov right now, and enter my zip code, you will see a current condition of "a few clouds and breezy. 35 degrees." The handy-dandy thermometer my neighbor installed behind our apartments, which is large enough to be seen from space (old neighbors = bad eyesight) says it's 24 degrees. Also, ice is falling from the sky in copious amounts. Where I live, weather forecasts are not only rarely right, the CURRENT CONDITIONS are rarely right. Sometimes, I find it hard to believe this is the modern age.

This is the NWS forecast I got for Indianola.

Quote:Today
Rain and snow likely before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 23 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Somebody must have finally updated the forecast.

Except I'm in Maryville, Mo., today, where I teach. I commute back to Indianola on the weekends. Which, this time of the year, can be quite the experience.

It also doesn't help that the current conditions are based upon extrapolation, because the nearest actual NWS observation station is nearly 50 miles away. In the Midwest, 50 miles can mean 50 degrees on certain days. You really have no idea what the weather is going to be in rural areas like Maryville based upon weather forecasts, because they are always forecasts for urban areas up to 100 miles away. For Maryville, all of our weather forecasting comes from Kansas City, and is designed for Kansas City. We are 90 miles north from that, and so the "forecast" we get, as well as "current conditions" are more or less true guesses, and not based on actual observation of the vast swaths of farmland around us that many urban areas -- and those working in them -- forget are actually occupied by people, not just cows.

Dang!

Well that forecast got updated too.

Quote:A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then a slight chance of rain between noon and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north northwest 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

I agree with what you stated regarding extrapolated observations from the main airports. So many folks have their own weather instruments today, and post them on the Internet. Somebody's observations from Maryville should be posted on the NWS page instead of Kansas City's observations.

The local forecasts are mostly geared towards Birmingham and just south of town here the majority of the time as it probably should be, however sometimes north of town may be a tad different.

There have been times when I have gone from work just north of town to home & it has been about 10 degrees difference in temperature.

Also, while traffic south of town has been a nightmare the last few days (& on a daily basis), north of town it isn't really too bad EXCEPT in parts of Trussville and Sweeny Hollow Road between Pinson & Trussville. Even then it is mostly during rush hours.

Weather Underground uses local observations. Here is a link to Maryville, MO.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/find...ryville+MO

By the way, many of these non traditional observations still get ingested into the computer models, or at least the experimental models.

(01-29-2014 04:08 PM)Grammar-Nazi Wrote:  

(01-29-2014 03:19 PM)mixduptransistor Wrote:  

(01-29-2014 02:21 PM)TPBlaze84 Wrote:  The difference is that James Spann offers quite the personal air of Demi-God style authority in his weather predictions, making it quite surprising to many people when he is wrong.

This.

He can't complain about getting the lion's share of the derision and blame, although of course he doesn't control the weather. However, if he's going to make his money on being the Jesus Christ of Weather and build his personal brand on his weather forecasting, he has to be prepared for this.

Agreed. I mean, read his first paragraph in his "apology":

Quote:In terms of human impact, yesterday’s forecast “bust” was the most significant for me since Janaury 1982, when we had a timing error of about six hours on the arrival of freezing rain and snow. Instead of starting at 5:00 p.m… it started around 11:00 a.m. People were caught off guard, schools and businesses closed, and the result was traffic gridlock, abandoned cars, separated families, and human suffering. Very much like yesterday, so I have been down this road before. The main difference is that I was a young man of 26 years old in 1982. With the experience and maturity that should come with a long tenure in my position, you would think that kind of error would not happen again, But, it did.

Essentially, he says it's his first mistake since 1982, and he was just 26 years old then, so even that mistake was forgivable. It's like he's saying he's practically infallible, so everyone should forgive him this one slip-up.

More like "I haven't screwed up this badly since 1983"

It bothers me that he thinks he's the only one out there and all the blame should fall on him, as well.

His ego just turns me off. He thinks he's the **** of the walk when it comes to weather in Alabama and he has everyone within the sound of his voice eating out of his hands, when he's no better or worse than any other meteorologist on television.

(01-30-2014 02:10 PM)mixduptransistor Wrote:  It bothers me that he thinks he's the only one out there and all the blame should fall on him, as well.

His ego just turns me off. He thinks he's the **** of the walk when it comes to weather in Alabama and he has everyone within the sound of his voice eating out of his hands, when he's no better or worse than any other meteorologist on television.

The Associated Press and the AMS both think he is the best meteorologist not only in Alabama, but America.

He's got the awards to prove it.

If ya'll think what we're doing to Spann is bad, have ya'll seen the GA/Atl folks tossing & taking blame for pretty much the same offense?

The thing that did surprise me about the forcast thing going in was that they normally take a closer to worst case scenario approach & they really didn't other than on the more southern areas of the state.

(01-30-2014 02:55 PM)Montgomery Blazer Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 02:10 PM)mixduptransistor Wrote:  It bothers me that he thinks he's the only one out there and all the blame should fall on him, as well.

His ego just turns me off. He thinks he's the **** of the walk when it comes to weather in Alabama and he has everyone within the sound of his voice eating out of his hands, when he's no better or worse than any other meteorologist on television.

The Associated Press and the AMS both think he is the best meteorologist not only in Alabama, but America.

He's got the awards to prove it.

Good for him. He's a good TV personality but he doesn't know anything about the weather that no one else does. He thinks he's king of the world, everyone should hang off his every word, and that we should be so gracious that he is on this Earth.

(01-30-2014 11:01 AM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  Weather Underground uses local observations. Here is a link to Maryville, MO.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/find...ryville+MO

By the way, many of these non traditional observations still get ingested into the computer models, or at least the experimental models.

Cool. Thanks.

I know Shelby Co school personnel were in a meeting with the EMA at approx 10:00 trying to decide when to dismiss students... the fact buses couldn't run was a blessing in disguise because there would have been thousands of elementary-age children stuck at homes with no parents.

It all falls back on the EMA, NWS, & NOAA, not the local tv weather broadcasters.

(01-30-2014 02:55 PM)Montgomery Blazer Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 02:10 PM)mixduptransistor Wrote:  It bothers me that he thinks he's the only one out there and all the blame should fall on him, as well.

His ego just turns me off. He thinks he's the **** of the walk when it comes to weather in Alabama and he has everyone within the sound of his voice eating out of his hands, when he's no better or worse than any other meteorologist on television.

The Associated Press and the AMS both think he is the best meteorologist not only in Alabama, but America.

He's got the awards to prove it.

Get this man some kneepads.

(01-30-2014 05:05 PM)UABslant Wrote:  I know Shelby Co school personnel were in a meeting with the EMA at approx 10:00 trying to decide when to dismiss students... the fact buses couldn't run was a blessing in disguise because there would have been thousands of elementary-age children stuck at homes with no parents.

It all falls back on the EMA, NWS, & NOAA, not the local tv weather broadcasters.

The EMAs depend on the NWS. I don't blame the EMAs.

If the NWS had issued a winter storm warning, it would have been all over TV. I don't blame the TV folks.

I retired from the NWS after 30 years. The NWS missed the event, at least up here in the Birmingham metro. We/they have missed events before and will miss events again in the future, but usually the impacts aren't as biblical as this one.

Forecasters live and die by the forecast models.

There was a winter storm warning for Atlanta (issued late - around 3am I think), but the same thing happened.

Should we just go back to the Farmer's Almanac & Granny's rheumatism???