RE: unionization.....let the litigation wars begin
this is only going to push schools to go back to focusing more on academics
I know many will not want to believe this, but the reality is the money stream is pretty much played out at this point
cable TV is on the brink right now and losing subscribers year over year for the first time in history and they really have no way to deal with it
the conference TV contracts are in place for the next decade for the major conferences with the exception of the Big 10 for their 1st tier only
the PAC 12 network is sucking wind and paying out nothing to the conference members......the LHN is sucking wind, but fortunately UT gets paid anyway and the SEC network will probably do OK, but I doubt it will be the home run most think or even a triple and the ACC screwed up and is in a difficult position to form a conference network so that is out
the playoffs are not going to be a big money maker over and above what they are paying now and it is doubtful they will be expanded beyond 4 teams and even if they did go to 8 it is not going to come with a great deal more money it will come with "access bowl" money slightly increased at best or chopped up a different way
the AAC and MWC have seen that "hey we would like at least a little money" results in "here is a lot less than you would have liked prove something to us" and everyone else is what they are
facility wars are winding down to a degree because most of the large schools are as big as they can get for a stajium, they have a practice facility, Tennessee is actually downsizing, Stanford downsized (back when they sucked a lot more) and others have either expanded or remodeled recently and really have nothing left to do or attempt especially with the limited eturn on that investment
jumbotrons litter the landscapes, naming rights deals are there, but still difficult to land especially with a quality sponsor......the money tree is tapped out and it not growing
the begging bowl holders from D1-AA are at the castle walls and beating on the doors and that will not get better unless something is done about it
now with the "pay us" from players and their poverty pimp advocates and flim flam artist, academic stories like FSU and UNC and players that are basically dead from the shoulders up and even the major programs seeing that they can spend double what they spend now and get zero return on athletics things are going to change
the NCAA is already putting in the graduation rate requirements for playoff and access bowl payout monies and the next step will be to put in place requirements for participation coming out of high school and that will send some of the mush mouths and future felons to community college or JuCo or possibly just out on the streets where they can start their jail career earlier
more than likely it will come in the form of a needed GPA like a 2.75 or higher out of high school and something like a 950/19 SAT/ACT (barely above having a pulse) and if you fail to have that then you cannot participate in NCAA athletics as a freshman and you have to take 12 hours of approved DEGREE PLAN courses each of two semesters to qualify for the next year with a 2.75+ GPA and passing all of those classes with at least a C
so you would basically be placed into your redshirt year immediately if you did not meet the NCAA min participation standards
and again they will make it 24 hours total of classes that count towards a degree plan and possible even mandate the classes.....so if a player needs remedial English or Math they can take that (and need to keep the 2.75 GPA including those classes), but they will then need to make those required DEGREE PLAN classes up in the summer before their second year
failure to have the 24 hours with the 2.75 GPA means you are again unable to play on the field, you can still practice, get a "scholarship", ect you just can't play and that next year counts as one of your 4 that you can play (and you have already burned the redshirt)......and again you will have to tack on another 24 hours towards a degree plan with a 2.75 GPA so going into your 3rd season you will need to have 48 hours with a 2.75 GPA that all count towards a degree or you cannot participate again
so if a school desired they could keep a guy on "scholarship" for 4 years and at the start of that 5th year if they managed to have 96 credit hours towards a degree plan with a 2.75 GPA they could play for their 5th year finally
and there will probably be a few teams at first that will try that and look at it like having someone at a JuCo only having control of them and paying the freight on them, but over time as they find these guys do not get it in 1-2 seasons and they go into their 3rd of 5 seasons still not able to participate and looking like they will never participate they will see it is a poor idea
along with that will be the stipulation that players that fail out, go to jail, or otherwise leave in bad academic standing you lose the ability to hand out that scholarship for the entirety of the time they would have been able to participate
so if Mush'Mouth McFelony gets arrested as a true freshman and has a 1.10 GPA with 6 hours that means instead of 85 scholarships for the next 4 years (+ the one he was there) you are only allowed to give 84 scholarships because the ghost of Mush'Mouth McFelony is still haunting you
and of Kaint-read Jefferson comes in with a 2.01 out of HS and a 713 SAT and stays around two years trying to become eligible and finally fails out that means for the remaining 3 years he would have been around you are down one more scholarship
so eventually when schools get down to 78 scholarships they can hand out and find themselves only able to sign 18 players some years because of how it worked out and the rest of those scholarships are doing nothing because they were used on non-qualifiers and known criminals they will adjust who they offer scholarships to and there will be "mid major" programs that will try and step in and take the risk, but they will be the ones that get hit even harder trying that because they will not have the "home runs" on a few risk that the majors have and the ones that do not pay off will be a bigger hit overall for programs that go with the "speed" and "coach them up" and "work them in slow" style (that works for many), but when your depth starts to suffer because of failed risk it limits who you can bring in as another project
over time they will bump up the entrance requirements and the overall GPA requirements for ALL athletes to be able to participate and up the losses for failing our or arrested or otherwise leaving in poor academic standing and that will wash out many of the smaller programs that can't take the risk, can't weather the bad press of shipping a non-performer out after a season of letting them try and that can't develop the JuCo contacts to get that transition program in place instead of running it through the 4 year university
again many will disagree, but there is a reason that Duke, Stanford (who has been terrible in football a lot more than they have been good) Duke, Wake, Northwestern, Vandy and on and on are allowed to stick around and it is not because Alabama, UT, OU, Tennessee, FSU and others do not want them around.....it is because they want them around and soon will be the time they become a benefit instead of a liability
because with academics in focus those schools will again be able to compete and others that have competed athletically more so that academically (that many toss out as getting a major conference invite because of football field performance even though that will NEVER happen) will get sent packing when it all weeds itself out
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unionization.....let the litigation wars begin
