Toledo is ranked 64th in the RPI. Unfortunately, even if the Rockets were to win all their MAC games, that ranking is likely to go down due to the lower RPIs of the MAC opponents.
No it won't, because teams ahead will lose a lot more games. Toledo's rpi after a sweep of the rest of our schedule would be in the low 30's. OU twice, and EMU twice are the best two rpis outside of us.
how is xavier a 5 seed? they aren't that good. would take that draw in a second. usually the best place to be is in the 4/13, 5/12, or 6/11 games because you avoid top 10 type teams until the sweet 16 at the earliest. the rockets probably need to win the conf tourney to qualify as the sched doesn't have enough strong opponents. the rockets would maybe get in (or in the play in game) if they go 16-2 or 17-1 in the mac and lose the final of the conf tourney, but it would be a nail biter. if we go 16-2 in the league and win the tourney we would be 30-3 and might rise as high as 9 in the seeding which would might make for a lighter first game opponent but put us against a syracuse or arizona in game two if we make it that far.
(01-25-2014 11:55 AM)Sleepy Wrote: Toledo is ranked 64th in the RPI. Unfortunately, even if the Rockets were to win all their MAC games, that ranking is likely to go down due to the lower RPIs of the MAC opponents.
bracketology still doesn't have us close to an at large. need to win the mac tourney, unless we can win out in the conf reg season a loss in the mac tourney could relegate us to the NIT
If you assume a loss in the MAC Tourney final, it would be really hard to imagine a team with 4-5 losses and an RPI of less than 50 not getting an at large bid. But as Lunardi point's out, the committee has not been kind to The MAC over the years.....
Not that I'm looking ahead, but here are the 2nd and 3rd round site locations for the tourney and the approx drive time from Toledo. A boy can dream, right?
2014 NCAA Second/Third Rounds (March 20-22)
Buffalo, NY – Driveable, 5 hrs
Milwaukee, WI – Driveable, 5.5 hrs.
Orlando, FL –Easy Flight
Spokane, WA – Tough Flight
2014 NCAA Second/Third Rounds (March 21-23)
Raleigh, NC – On the long end of driveable, 9 Hrs., Maybe Flight?
San Antonio, TX -Flight
San Diego, CA – Flight.
St. Louis Mo – Driveable, 7 hrs.
If you assume a loss in the MAC Tourney final, it would be really hard to imagine a team with 4-5 losses and an RPI of less than 50 not getting an at large bid. But as Lunardi point's out, the committee has not been kind to The MAC over the years.....
Last year the Rocket women finished with three losses, including the tournament loss, and had an RPI of 46 (before the NIT and NCAA tournaments started) and still were left out. The men, I think, would need an RPI in the 30s to be guaranteed a spot. We are currently 36 (not counting the Miami game).
realtimerpi has us at 29 today. i imagine if we only lose 2 games the rest of the way we would finish in the 30s. but to be safe i would say we need to only lose 1 game in the regular season to have an at large spot.
The only thing of relevance that dbag mentioned was our schedule. All mid-majors get knocked on our schedules because nobody from larger conferences will play us at our home gyms, they don't return our phone calls and will only play us if we luck our way into a post season tournament. There are some tough teams in the MAC this year and we don't get any consideration for playing our conference. Akron is not an easy win and we went to their gym and boot stomped them. I hope our team can stay focused through the tournament. I don't mind if we have a couple of mental lapses in the regular season, but come tourney time we need to control our own destiny. Not like football this year, don't put our destiny in the hands of idiots who don't know how to pick teams.
Looking at that link you can only read the little snip on Baylor and doesn't it suck when MAC teams don't get at-large bids and the national medial are still considering teams like Baylor who is 1-6 in their conference as bubble teams. WTF? That is how screwed up the NCAA is right now.
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2014 04:46 PM by emanoh.)
When looking at the women's tourney from last season, the Big12 sent a below .500 team Kansas to the dance with a 60something rpi over Toledo and a few other schools. Every school but Drexel was knocked out in the first three rounds of WNIT, and Kansas won two games in the NCAA. So they actually in hind site probably got it right....not to mention the MAC hasn't won an NCAA Women's tourney game in a long time.
Lunardi is right about Toledo's bubble chances for an at large being ZERO---those slot are pretty much reserved for those 16-14 teams from the power conferences---- but he is just spouting the party line as far as the reasons he gives. The NCAA serves at the pleasure of the power conferences and at $1-1.5M per game played in the tourney, the Big Boys want get as many of their conference teams in the tourney as is humanly possible, so the selection criteria are subjective and varied enough---bad/good losses, bad/good wins, RPI, late losses (designed to keep mid-majors out unless they win their tourney), schedule, etc,etc----that they can always selectively find enough reasons to justify excluding anyone they want to exclude. Last year some naive optimists on the MAC board were debating before the MAC tourney about the possibility of Ohio and Akron both getting into the MAC------I foolishly joined the debate by offering the following data that I am reproducing here:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Here are the data for the 68 teams in the 2012 NCAA Tournament:
31 Automatic Qualifiers and 37 At-Large teams (includes the "play-in games")
Look at the data and draw you own conclusions about the likelihood of the MAC getting 2 teams in (or the fairness of the system if you like).
Also please note that 3 of the 5 at large bids to "lesser conferences" (out of 37 total at large bids) went to conferences whose commissioner (or associate commissioner) was on the selection committee
At Large Bids ---Conference----Selection Committee
The 8 "BIG" CONFERENCES ---- 32 at-large bids
3-Mountain West Conference
3-Atlantic 10 Conference------------Xavier AD
4-Atlantic Coast Conference---------Wake Forrest AD
5-Big 12 Conference-------------------Oklahoma AD
8-Big East Conference
5-Big Ten Conference-------------------Michigan AD
3-Southeastern Conference-------------LSU AD
1-Pac-10 Conference
Total =32
The OTHER 23 CONFERENCES ----- 5 at-large bids
America East Conference
Atlantic Sun Conference
Big Sky Conference--------------------Conference Commissioner
Big South Conference
Big West Conference
Colonial Athletic Association-----------Northeastern AD
1-Conference USA-------------------------Associate Commissioner
Horizon League
Ivy League
1-Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Mid-American Conference
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
1-Missouri Valley Conference
Northeast Conference
Ohio Valley Conference
Patriot League
Southern Conference
Southland Conference
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Summit League
Sun Belt Conference
2-West Coast Conference-----------------------Commissioner
Western Athletic Conference------------------Utah State AD
Total =5
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
As is the case for collegiate football, men's basketball is no longer a sport, rather is a big $$$$$ major entertainment enterprise thanks to the TV dollars---- and the power conferences are in the drivers' seat. Unfortunately universities have become totally addicted to the money this system provides and are now its enablers. No surprise that the Northwestern players want to unionize.
I have some faith that 1 loss at either EMU or OU, and a loss in the championship game would still get us in.
I firmly believe 1 loss in the semi's with the team who beat us winning the MAC tourney would still get us in.
I know a loss in the championship game being our only loss the rest of the year would get us in.
Anything with a Toledo rpi in the 30's would keep us in the dance. To do that 3/4 need to be own vs. OU and EMU. That starts this weekend!
(01-30-2014 05:46 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote: I have some faith that 1 loss at either EMU or OU, and a loss in the championship game would still get us in.
I firmly believe 1 loss in the semi's with the team who beat us winning the MAC tourney would still get us in.
I know a loss in the championship game being our only loss the rest of the year would get us in.
Anything with a Toledo rpi in the 30's would keep us in the dance. To do that 3/4 need to be own vs. OU and EMU. That starts this weekend!
Hopefully the Rockets will prevail in the MAC Tournament, so we will not have to test your faith. You may be right but I sure wouldn't want to have to rely on it for a bid.
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2014 06:08 PM by T-Town.)
(01-25-2014 11:55 AM)Sleepy Wrote: Toledo is ranked 64th in the RPI. Unfortunately, even if the Rockets were to win all their MAC games, that ranking is likely to go down due to the lower RPIs of the MAC opponents.
