6 games in indeed, that's 1/3 of the MAC season. If I had to take a guess at what sort of record you'd need to win the MAC, you'd be looking at probably 13-5, 12-6 maybe. At 3-3, that would mean that we would need to go likely 10-2 the rest of the way vs if we would have won today, 9-3.

So let's look at it in thirds:

The first third of the season we played: @BG, @Buffalo, WMU, @CMU, Akron, Ohio -> Went 3-3
Second third: BG, @Miami, @Akron, Kent, @Ball St, Toledo (potentially could go 4-2? ) *Personally, I think we go 3-3
Last third: @NIU, @WMU, CMU, NIU, BSU, @Toledo (potentially 4-2, 5-1?) *Probably 4-2

I guess if you look at it from a scheduling perspective, some might argue we'd completed our toughest part of the schedule. I'd argue we're about to enter it.

An interesting site that statistically analyzes things(http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketb...rojections) ranks our remaining games from easiest to hardest as follows:

1. Ball State - HOME (last third)
2. N. Illinois - HOME (last third)
3. Central Michigan - HOME (last third)
4. Bowling Green - HOME (second third)
5. Kent State - HOME (second third)
6. at Ball State (second third)
7. at N. Illinois (last third)
8. at Miami(Ohio) (second third)
9. Toledo (second third)
10. at W.Michigan (last third)
11. at Akron (second third)
12. at Toledo (last third)

So I guess here's what I'm asking.. based on everything that has happened so far.. are we satisfied with that? I'm seeing 10-8 in the MAC right now which would probably put us 4th or 5th. If we get to 10-8 that would put us at 18 wins, and I do think we could win a couple in the MAC tournament.. so a 20 win season wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. Any other thoughts?

(01-25-2014 06:35 PM)emussuperfan Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 04:15 PM)EagleSam Wrote:  Dear god. We are 6 games into an 18 game conference schedule. This game hurt like hell, but we have plenty of chances left to improve from it. There is no sugar-coating what happened today, but that doesn't determine what will happen the rest of the year. Tons of winnable games left. Hell, I think EVERY game left is winnable. No dominant teams in this conference.

Dream on if they cant win home games they can't win much of anything else! Not only that they will lose your fan base much like football. These where very win able games and much as few other games this year the team lost it's composure and fell a part! And what was with Riley why wasn't he getting back on offense after Ohio missed shots?

AMEN! How I yearn for the Boykins/Dial days but doubt they will ever return at least during my lifetime. I have been associated with EMU Hoops for a long time and looked forward to this year but am now totally frustrated. EMU hoops is just not to be.

Three losses in the second third? I'd be disappointed. That should be 4-2 at least. Kent is not the Kent of old this year. They look average at best.

I think 4-2 and 5-1 is still very possible. That would put us at 12-6 in the conference and in great position for the double bye.

It'll be very tough, but it's doable. This is a wide open conference.

(01-25-2014 06:54 PM)Dennis Hoopster Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 06:35 PM)emussuperfan Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 04:15 PM)EagleSam Wrote:  Dear god. We are 6 games into an 18 game conference schedule. This game hurt like hell, but we have plenty of chances left to improve from it. There is no sugar-coating what happened today, but that doesn't determine what will happen the rest of the year. Tons of winnable games left. Hell, I think EVERY game left is winnable. No dominant teams in this conference.

Dream on if they cant win home games they can't win much of anything else! Not only that they will lose your fan base much like football. These where very win able games and much as few other games this year the team lost it's composure and fell a part! And what was with Riley why wasn't he getting back on offense after Ohio missed shots?

AMEN! How I yearn for the Boykins/Dial days but doubt they will ever return at least during my lifetime. I have been associated with EMU Hoops for a long time and looked forward to this year but am now totally frustrated. EMU hoops is just not to be.

Yep, cancel the rest of the season because we are 3-3 in the conference. Throwing in the towel after a 3rd of the conference schedule is always a great idea.

(01-25-2014 06:58 PM)EagleSam Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 06:54 PM)Dennis Hoopster Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 06:35 PM)emussuperfan Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 04:15 PM)EagleSam Wrote:  Dear god. We are 6 games into an 18 game conference schedule. This game hurt like hell, but we have plenty of chances left to improve from it. There is no sugar-coating what happened today, but that doesn't determine what will happen the rest of the year. Tons of winnable games left. Hell, I think EVERY game left is winnable. No dominant teams in this conference.

Dream on if they cant win home games they can't win much of anything else! Not only that they will lose your fan base much like football. These where very win able games and much as few other games this year the team lost it's composure and fell a part! And what was with Riley why wasn't he getting back on offense after Ohio missed shots?

AMEN! How I yearn for the Boykins/Dial days but doubt they will ever return at least during my lifetime. I have been associated with EMU Hoops for a long time and looked forward to this year but am now totally frustrated. EMU hoops is just not to be.

Yep, cancel the rest of the season because we are 3-3 in the conference. Throwing in the towel after a 3rd of the conference schedule is always a great idea.

I've heard this so many times it isn't funny any more! We lose to teams that are shorter and faster. I'm not the one that has thrown in the towel but this team has more than a few times! And my guess and it is a good one is that we will see this team throw in more towels than pull out a wins. At best we will go 50-50 the rest of season which is very sad when you think about it! We have 5sr! And we play liked a bunch of freshman!

(01-25-2014 06:57 PM)EagleSam Wrote:  Three losses in the second third? I'd be disappointed. That should be 4-2 at least. Kent is not the Kent of old this year. They look average at best.

I think 4-2 and 5-1 is still very possible. That would put us at 12-6 in the conference and in great position for the double bye.

It'll be very tough, but it's doable. This is a wide open conference.

The game I'm going to next Saturday @Miami is one of those games that you think we should probably win but weird things have happened against them over the years. (hopefully we can exercise some demons there, bringing the girl friend who has been a good luck charm so far!) @Akron and vs Toledo could both easily be losses if we're not on our A game. Kent State we also always seem to struggle with. It's just I see that as four tough games and two(BG and @BSU) that we hopefully don't overlook. That's my logic behind 3-3. Again, I hope I'm wrong.

The last third of our schedule is easily the one where we could make us run. I'm being conservative at 4-2 just based on what I've seen so far.

In fairness though, I also don't see us getting blown out in any of these games primarily based on our defense. However, we go through these offensive stretches where we can't score because we just depend way too much on 1 on 1 play and just don't have a clue what we're doing. Plus we took a dip in our free throw shooting which we cannot afford.

To me the issue isn't the talent at all. We've got that and we've got the depth.. We just need to find an identity on the offensive end and all of a sudden this team could be what many expect. It's just I don't see much progress on that end of the floor and in our game today against Ohio U, it cost us this game.

Just my 2 cents.

(01-25-2014 04:19 PM)holybovine Wrote:  I say this with absolutely no bitterness or anger, but Murphy is a two trick pony. His two tricks:

1) The 2-3 zone
2) Effectively recruiting transfers

Offensively, he is a non-coach. There is no structure, rhyme, or reason to the offense. Plays are not run, and players do whatever they want to out there. It's like a YMCA game.

This big weakness, in combination with the low basketball IQ of most transfers, results in some painful losses. Hey, at least he's a two-trick pony: Our past several coaches have been 0-trick ponies.

i agree 100%. i get that his calling card is defense and we've seen what a solid defense is capable of, but why ignore the offensive end like this? these players are lost in the half court. how many other coaches provide this little guidance for scoring out of a set offense? there is so much potential for this season and we still have the talent to win the MAC, but i think the recurring offensive malaise will be our undoing.

In a weird day of MAC and B1G hoops, ALL SEVEN home teams lost, including MSU.

And if BobW and NUPudge, were really paying attention they could have made big, big predictions about yesterday.

There seems to be a big, big pattern in the MAC this year:

"RE: Men's Basketball Week of Jan 20 - 26
home team record in conference play drops to 11-17.

East leads West in crossover games 15-5."

OMG, our next opponent is a MAC home crossover team.

When do we get to play NIU on the road. Lol.

(01-25-2014 06:50 PM)TheCrumbIsHere Wrote:  6 games in indeed, that's 1/3 of the MAC season. If I had to take a guess at what sort of record you'd need to win the MAC, you'd be looking at probably 13-5, 12-6 maybe. At 3-3, that would mean that we would need to go likely 10-2 the rest of the way vs if we would have won today, 9-3.

So let's look at it in thirds:

The first third of the season we played: @BG, @Buffalo, WMU, @CMU, Akron, Ohio -> Went 3-3
Second third: BG, @Miami, @Akron, Kent, @Ball St, Toledo (potentially could go 4-2? ) *Personally, I think we go 3-3
Last third: @NIU, @WMU, CMU, NIU, BSU, @Toledo (potentially 4-2, 5-1?) *Probably 4-2

I guess if you look at it from a scheduling perspective, some might argue we'd completed our toughest part of the schedule. I'd argue we're about to enter it.

An interesting site that statistically analyzes things(http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketb...rojections) ranks our remaining games from easiest to hardest as follows:

1. Ball State - HOME (last third)
2. N. Illinois - HOME (last third)
3. Central Michigan - HOME (last third)
4. Bowling Green - HOME (second third)
5. Kent State - HOME (second third)
6. at Ball State (second third)
7. at N. Illinois (last third)
8. at Miami(Ohio) (second third)
9. Toledo (second third)
10. at W.Michigan (last third)
11. at Akron (second third)
12. at Toledo (last third)

So I guess here's what I'm asking.. based on everything that has happened so far.. are we satisfied with that? I'm seeing 10-8 in the MAC right now which would probably put us 4th or 5th. If we get to 10-8 that would put us at 18 wins, and I do think we could win a couple in the MAC tournament.. so a 20 win season wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. Any other thoughts?

I suppose I could solve this problem very easily.

For those who are into research analysis type problems this should be a no brainer.

We are talking 1st third, 2nd third and third third.

Each time can be ranked based on their Sagarin ranking.

Each game can be given a score based on the difficutly of the opponent + the home/road factor.

Sum up points for the 1st third, 2nd third and 3rd third and see...

Just be eyeballing the info above + knowing what the 1st third was like (e.g., Akron, Buffalo, Ohio, etc.) that the 1st third should easily be the most difficult third.

We have as many tough games in the last two thirds of the season (i.e., Toledo, twice, and Akron) as we did in the first third (e.g., Akron, Ohio, @ UB).

I see us on a roll which hopefully starts against UT at home on Feb 15.

Matter of fact, one might argue we've not had an 'easy' game, other than @CMU:

An 'easy game' might be CMU, NIU, BSU, etc. at home. Probability of win should be 75 - 80%.

@BG was a 50 - 50 game. @UB was a 40 - 60 game. WMU (home) was a 60 - 40 game. @CMU was say a 70 - 30 game.

(01-26-2014 10:20 AM)emu steve Wrote:  Matter of fact, one might argue we've not had an 'easy' game, other than @CMU:

An 'easy game' might be CMU, NIU, BSU, etc. at home. Probability of win should be 75 - 80%.

@BG was a 50 - 50 game. @UB was a 40 - 60 game. WMU (home) was a 60 - 40 game. @CMU was say a 70 - 30 game.

We had 4-5 games where we would have if we had kept our composure! And I don't care who we play! We must win home games! And we haven't!

(01-26-2014 10:42 AM)emussuperfan Wrote:  ... We must win home games! And we haven't!

'RE: GameDay: Ohio (WOS)
In a weird day of MAC and B1G hoops, ALL SEVEN home teams lost, including MSU. '

Super didn't get the memo.

Apparently in 2014, it is okay to lose home games.

It is the new paradigm: Win on the road; lose at home...

I has to stay home due to weather so I watched on TV, I thought the student section did a great job of representing EMU.

All I can say is that EMU and Murphy executed the game plan perfectly until the final two minutes. The team came back nicely from a blowout loss to Akron.

I was curious but it seemed to me that for long stretches of the second half Talley was on the bench and I can't figure out why that occurred.

We get second chances at Akron and Ohio U and hopefully we win on the road.