This is from the article:

The AAC chugged along through 2013 doing its best impression of an AQ conference. But after cannibalization of a conference that once played for three BCS titles (back when Virginia Tech and Miami were still members), what remains looks more like the Conference USA standings from a decade ago than the once-proud Big East. Reborn as the American, the league has several decent teams still among its roll call, including reigning champion UCF and a Cincinnati team that has a chance at a third straight 10-win season should they beat North Carolina in the Belk Bowl.

But while the AAC will welcome East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa in 2014, it will also lose Louisville and Rutgers to the ACC and Big Ten respectively. It is still the best-positioned of the non-AQ leagues to claim the new automatic bid in future seasons despite the losses, and had the system been in place in 2013 UCF would have been playing in a top-tier bowl just as they are under the last season of the former Big East’s AQ status.

- See more at: http://sportsunbiased.com/ncaa/college-f...VtJK9.dpuf

My comment to this article on the C-USA board...

I think The American may have the same problem C-USA 2.0 had. All the teams beat up on each other in conference allowing a team from a weaker league (example: Boise State, the WAC years) to grab the Access Bowl. 2011 was the only year C-USA 2.0 legititmately had a chance to send a team to a BCS game; but Southern Miss said "Not so fast my friend." Every other year we just beat each other up.

It all depends what the Committee values...SoS or overall record...JMO going forward it mostly going to be a battle for that slot between the AAC and MWC.

The key for the American is going to be much like the old Big East football conference, have everyone go at least 4-8 during the season.

Its going to be more difficult as programs like Rutgers and Pittsburgh were able to get pay day games at home against conferences like the MAC. I don't see as much of that for the AAC, if at all.

AAC 1.0 might be a lot like MWC 1.0 where Utah, BYU and TCU dominated and represented the non-AQ in the top 25. This time the programs look like they are going to be Houston, Cincinnati and UCF with huge recruiting advantages over the other schools. South Florida I'm sure will be back in contention shortly.

(01-22-2014 11:00 AM)Maize Wrote:  It all depends what the Committee values...SoS or overall record...JMO going forward it mostly going to be a battle for that slot between the AAC and MWC.

I disagree with the second half of the statement.

Looking at the Sagarin numbers I don't think the MWC 2.0 is going to be that competitive with the AAC. Boise State took a big hit with Chris Petersen moving to Washington. They've seen their best days of football already.

If 2 teams in a G5 conference end up undefeated its going to come down to who has the best quality win to determine who gets the automatic spot. The difference in SOS right now between the G5 leagues in tiny enough to the point where the 2 conferences with the undefeated team will have the greatest SOS.

Its also worth noting that no G5 program has every gone undefeated on a 13 (12 game plus championship game) schedule. Houston, NIU, Ball State have all been close but lost in the conference championship game to inferior clubs. I can see it happening in the AAC where UCF almost pulled it off last year but in the MAC, MWC 2.0, CUSA 3.0 it probably won't happen.

Then you have the SBC where Arkansas State's record of 10-3 in 2011 was the best record in the history of that football conference. I'm not saying this conference couldn't have an undefeated team but the tradition for it in the SBC just isn't there. ASU is the only program to ever to hit double digit wins from the SBC. Comparatively the MAC has 4 schools that have done it in the last 2 seasons.

It's in the best spot of the G5, yes, but it's still in a terrible position to advance itself.

Access Bowl Bid prediction over the next 12 years (barring more realignment):

American 5 bids
MWC 3-4 bids
MAC 2-3 bids
CUSA/Sunbelt combined 1 bid

Based on the data I'm looking at, Access Bowls are going to be tilted heavily toward the AAC.

12 year cycle:

AAC 10 Access Bowls
MWC 2 Access Bowls
CUSA, MAC, SBC (0)

I do not expect the top G5 school to go undefeated on a 13 game schedule. Its never happened before. The AAC should be good for producing a 1 loss team every year that can dominate its P5 competition as was the case with UCF.

(01-22-2014 11:07 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  AAC 1.0 might be a lot like MWC 1.0 where Utah, BYU and TCU dominated and represented the non-AQ in the top 25. This time the programs look like they are going to be Houston, Cincinnati and UCF with huge recruiting advantages over the other schools. South Florida I'm sure will be back in contention shortly.

If the American is anything like MWC circa 2008, then that is a huge compliment. In my opinion, MWC 1.0 was the best non-AQ football league ever.

(01-22-2014 11:23 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(01-22-2014 11:00 AM)Maize Wrote:  It all depends what the Committee values...SoS or overall record...JMO going forward it mostly going to be a battle for that slot between the AAC and MWC.

I disagree with the second half of the statement.

Looking at the Sagarin numbers I don't think the MWC 2.0 is going to be that competitive with the AAC. Boise State took a big hit with Chris Petersen moving to Washington. They've seen their best days of football already.

If 2 teams in a G5 conference end up undefeated its going to come down to who has the best quality win to determine who gets the automatic spot. The difference in SOS right now between the G5 leagues in tiny enough to the point where the 2 conferences with the undefeated team will have the greatest SOS.

Its also worth noting that no G5 program has every gone undefeated on a 13 (12 game plus championship game) schedule. Houston, NIU, Ball State have all been close but lost in the conference championship game to inferior clubs. I can see it happening in the AAC where UCF almost pulled it off last year but in the MAC, MWC 2.0, CUSA 3.0 it probably won't happen.

Then you have the SBC where Arkansas State's record of 10-3 in 2011 was the best record in the history of that football conference. I'm not saying this conference couldn't have an undefeated team but the tradition for it in the SBC just isn't there. ASU is the only program to ever to hit double digit wins from the SBC. Comparatively the MAC has 4 schools that have done it in the last 2 seasons.

You also have a situation though where SBC teams traditionally load up on ACC and SEC teams in non league play. If an SBC Champ manages to somehow go 12-0, they are going to have as good a shot as any simply because of the quality of their OOC wins.

People cite that ASU has one win over a P5 program since we moved to FBS 21 years ago...but as fans we like to point out that our coaches for the last couple of years have intentionally scheduled games against Top 25 P5 schools as a way to judge how we are against the best of the best.

I think we are slowly attempting to move away from that, but will settle more for games against 6-6 type SEC/ACC teams than games against teams like Virginia, Wake Forrest, or Kentucky.

The SoS concern is a legitimate one. It's one thing to blow through the conference like a breeze, but those other 3-4 games better have some "meat." Looking at some of the upcoming/future AAC member schedules, some of these schools have some P5 games lined up, while others not so much. I'm not saying the MWC is stronger for having their PAC agreement, or the MAC and their B1G games, but it couldn't hurt the AAC to shore up something similar for all its members.

It's why I love basketball more than football at the collegiate level. You can try to avoid strong mid-majors, but it will hurt you if you do (the paper tigers). In college football, it's accepted general practice to stock up on fluff and let the conference work do the talking.

Whether individual teams are in a good position is a helluva lot more important than whether their conference is arguably "better" than another conference. A program or coaching staff that isn't getting the job done, even if in a "better" G5 league, is worse off than a program in any other league that is getting good support and coaching.

(01-22-2014 12:03 PM)Texas2Step Wrote:  

(01-22-2014 11:07 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  AAC 1.0 might be a lot like MWC 1.0 where Utah, BYU and TCU dominated and represented the non-AQ in the top 25. This time the programs look like they are going to be Houston, Cincinnati and UCF with huge recruiting advantages over the other schools. South Florida I'm sure will be back in contention shortly.

If the American is anything like MWC circa 2008, then that is a huge compliment. In my opinion, MWC 1.0 was the best non-AQ football league ever.

The argument with MWC 1.0 always was that it should be included as a BCS conference. Average attendance in MWC 1.0 was close to 35,000 and included a growing but under represented portion of the country. They were not that far off from the Big East FB conference.

MWC 2.0 though has no claim to stake out as a Power Conference. The gap between it and the PAC is now like the gap between the B1G and MAC in football. In basketball its a different story as the MWC is pretty competitive in that but the case for football is over.

Now going back to the AAC, the heir to the football throne of the Big East football conference, traditionally as soon as the critics have tried to write it off a program steps up in a big way to maintain its legitimacy. Remember when Miami was down in the late 90's? Virginia Tech then steps up with a really good program. VT, Miami and BC all leave and then West Virginia steps up to win BCS bowls. Cincinnati was the weakest football link of BE 2.0 coming in but emerged as a Lion for the football conference.

Its happened again after UCF has won the Fiesta Bowl in the first season of the conference. For whatever reason, as soon as a school gets the Big East label recruiting ticks up significantly and now that is transferred to the AAC which got off to a good start in 2013. The AAC has inherited the ESPN Big East football package (though for less money) that has led to the development of great programs over the years.

I think the non-ESPN TV package has held back programs coming into the league from CUSA. Programs like Tulane and Memphis now have a big edge on CUSA/SBC competition in recruiting. Tulsa and ECU have been solid programs for years. I do think the future of the AAC is largely going to be dictated by its football performance as the measuring stick more than anything else.

(01-22-2014 12:20 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Whether individual teams are in a good position is a helluva lot more important than whether their conference is arguably "better" than another conference. A program or coaching staff that isn't getting the job done, even if in a "better" G5 league, is worse off than a program in any other league that is getting good support and coaching.

Agree 100%

(01-22-2014 12:14 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(01-22-2014 11:23 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(01-22-2014 11:00 AM)Maize Wrote:  It all depends what the Committee values...SoS or overall record...JMO going forward it mostly going to be a battle for that slot between the AAC and MWC.

I disagree with the second half of the statement.

Looking at the Sagarin numbers I don't think the MWC 2.0 is going to be that competitive with the AAC. Boise State took a big hit with Chris Petersen moving to Washington. They've seen their best days of football already.

If 2 teams in a G5 conference end up undefeated its going to come down to who has the best quality win to determine who gets the automatic spot. The difference in SOS right now between the G5 leagues in tiny enough to the point where the 2 conferences with the undefeated team will have the greatest SOS.

Its also worth noting that no G5 program has every gone undefeated on a 13 (12 game plus championship game) schedule. Houston, NIU, Ball State have all been close but lost in the conference championship game to inferior clubs. I can see it happening in the AAC where UCF almost pulled it off last year but in the MAC, MWC 2.0, CUSA 3.0 it probably won't happen.

Then you have the SBC where Arkansas State's record of 10-3 in 2011 was the best record in the history of that football conference. I'm not saying this conference couldn't have an undefeated team but the tradition for it in the SBC just isn't there. ASU is the only program to ever to hit double digit wins from the SBC. Comparatively the MAC has 4 schools that have done it in the last 2 seasons.

You also have a situation though where SBC teams traditionally load up on ACC and SEC teams in non league play. If an SBC Champ manages to somehow go 12-0, they are going to have as good a shot as any simply because of the quality of their OOC wins.

People cite that ASU has one win over a P5 program since we moved to FBS 21 years ago...but as fans we like to point out that our coaches for the last couple of years have intentionally scheduled games against Top 25 P5 schools as a way to judge how we are against the best of the best.

I think we are slowly attempting to move away from that, but will settle more for games against 6-6 type SEC/ACC teams than games against teams like Virginia, Wake Forrest, or Kentucky.

I see your vantage point but still the fact remains that no SBC school has pulled out a 12-0 or 11-1 record before. Those are the kind of records the SBC needs if its going to pick up an access bowl.

SBC has 5 new programs to FBS (TXST, USA, GSU, Southern, App) and the constant threat of more raiding from CUSA. I don't think its inconceivable that Arkansas State finishes with the best record among CUSA/SBC schools on a regular basis with 10 or even 11 wins. Its hard to see it moving the needle in recruiting enough for an access bowl to happen though.

The AAC schools have significantly more tradition, TV exposure and attendance than CUSA/SBC members, not to mention the ability to score power conference teams at home and the potential for Top 25 matchups in conference play.

CFB rankings are a tricky thing. They depend a lot on how much pollsters "buy" your team's performance. They're a lot more likely to believe your team is good if you've had several good seasons in a row than if you went 3-9 last year. The only G5 schools that have a consistent history of high-level successes are Cincinnati and Boise. UCF, NIU, USF, Fresno, Houston, ECU, UConn, and Ohio also have had a some pretty good seasons.

These schools will get the benefit of the doubt if they have a good season. They will be ranked higher by the selection committee than a school with a similar record from another G5 conference. No other G5 school will really get the benefit of the doubt next year (although it's possible I'm forgetting one, so don't crucify me if your team belongs on this list).


Thus, the AAC has a definite, if short-term, advantage because the AAC has more teams that have experienced recent successes at a high level. This advantage will disappear unless AAC teams continue to have better OOC records than other G5 conferences.

(01-22-2014 11:45 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Based on the data I'm looking at, Access Bowls are going to be tilted heavily toward the AAC.

12 year cycle:

AAC 10 Access Bowls
MWC 2 Access Bowls
CUSA, MAC, SBC (0)

I do not expect the top G5 school to go undefeated on a 13 game schedule. Its never happened before. The AAC should be good for producing a 1 loss team every year that can dominate its P5 competition as was the case with UCF.

Boise State was 13-0 in 2009 so it has happened before. Their Fiesta Bowl win over TCU gave them a 14-0 record.

(01-23-2014 10:33 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(01-22-2014 11:45 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Based on the data I'm looking at, Access Bowls are going to be tilted heavily toward the AAC.

12 year cycle:

AAC 10 Access Bowls
MWC 2 Access Bowls
CUSA, MAC, SBC (0)

I do not expect the top G5 school to go undefeated on a 13 game schedule. Its never happened before. The AAC should be good for producing a 1 loss team every year that can dominate its P5 competition as was the case with UCF.

Boise State was 13-0 in 2009 so it has happened before. Their Fiesta Bowl win over TCU gave them a 14-0 record.

I stand corrected.

Its happened 1 time in 10 years of having a 12+1 game schedule.