Much has been made about CUSA's transformation from its 1.0 version to its 2.0 version and now onto its 3.0 version. The impact has been discussed at length and few believe that CUSA 3.0 is anywhere close to its original product. The reality is the same thing is going on with the MWC.

CUSA 2.0 was about Cincinnati, Louisville and USF leaving with the football conference expanding to 12. MWC 2.0 was about Utah, BYU and TCU leaving with the football conference expanding to 12.

The hype about CUSA 2.0 at the time was they now had a regional football conference with powers like ECU and USM that was set to grow for the future. The same hype exists today with the MWC and Boise/Fresno St.

Just like Tulsa's performance surprised some in CUSA 2.0 becoming their most consistent performer, backing that up with stadium upgrades it may be Colorado State with its new stadium that will be the most consistent program in the next decade.

Thoughts on where the MWC is headed?

The MWC may be down for a bit with all of the coaching turnover since the end of the 2012 season. But in the long run the conference can only get stronger, because it has no competition in the west for recruits but the Pac-12. There are no other FBS conferences in its footprint, there won't be in the foreseeable future, and unlike some folks I don't expect the Pac-12 or MWC to further expand (I can't really see UT giving up its Big 12 fiefdom). So as the western population grows in relation to the national population -- 7 of the 11 fastest-growing U.S. states are west of Texas -- and the western talent pool expands commensurately, the MWC is better-positioned than any other G5 conference to gradually recruit and field better and better players.

the B-12 will answer your ?, with WV, B-12 has to look east,
the 2 biggest deals out there are Conn & BYU, BYU has to much baggage & west coast schools time slots don,t fit.
B-12, looking east can get a preance in the NE with Conn, Mass Cin, Temple & Buffalo
along with Fla [UCF & USF]

The PAC 12 dominates that region and they struggle to get national coverage.
Some of those states are growing at a high percentage but are low population states.
Plenty of schools have potential UNLV building a dome could catch fire.
SDSU could benefit if the chargers move to L.A. .
CSU building a Big 12 level stadium could step up.


The PAC could take New Mexico and UNLV if they improve.
Only flagship type schools are candidates so losing schools is unlikely.

MWC should get much stronger. It SHOULD have some stability now. The Big 12 is your next catalyst. It will not stay at 10 long-term.

(01-23-2014 08:12 AM)USM@FTL Wrote:  MWC should get much stronger. It SHOULD have some stability now. The Big 12 is your next catalyst. It will not stay at 10 long-term.

I agree. Now that the MW has gone through its first year as a 12 team conference and had a Championship Game, the focus can be on the redevelopment of the conference. Getting the Access Bowl slot consistently will be a big plus and then wait out the TV contract when it can be renewed or sent out for bid.

Football wise, the coaching stability will be key for development. With a lot more MW schools now paying more for coaches, the turnover should be less giving some stability in that area (i.e. the raise UNLV gave it coaching from 350k to 650k..base salary).

Keep an eye on BYU. Rumors are swirling since the convention. I think BYU may be force to rethink their membership in the WCC. If the WCC decides, most likely, to not give stipends to athletes; that may force BYU back to the MW. And the MW will not take BYU w/o football.

(01-23-2014 09:49 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 08:12 AM)USM@FTL Wrote:  MWC should get much stronger. It SHOULD have some stability now. The Big 12 is your next catalyst. It will not stay at 10 long-term.

I agree. Now that the MW has gone through its first year as a 12 team conference and had a Championship Game, the focus can be on the redevelopment of the conference. Getting the Access Bowl slot consistently will be a big plus and then wait out the TV contract when it can be renewed or sent out for bid.

Football wise, the coaching stability will be key for development. With a lot more MW schools now paying more for coaches, the turnover should be less giving some stability in that area (i.e. the raise UNLV gave it coaching from 350k to 650k..base salary).

Keep an eye on BYU. Rumors are swirling since the convention. I think BYU may be force to rethink their membership in the WCC. If the WCC decides, most likely, to not give stipends to athletes; that may force BYU back to the MW. And the MW will not take BYU w/o football.

I can't see BYU returning to the MWC. The WCC is mainly a group of rich private schools so their should be no reason that they can't pass the stipends.

(01-23-2014 10:46 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 09:49 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 08:12 AM)USM@FTL Wrote:  MWC should get much stronger. It SHOULD have some stability now. The Big 12 is your next catalyst. It will not stay at 10 long-term.

I agree. Now that the MW has gone through its first year as a 12 team conference and had a Championship Game, the focus can be on the redevelopment of the conference. Getting the Access Bowl slot consistently will be a big plus and then wait out the TV contract when it can be renewed or sent out for bid.

Football wise, the coaching stability will be key for development. With a lot more MW schools now paying more for coaches, the turnover should be less giving some stability in that area (i.e. the raise UNLV gave it coaching from 350k to 650k..base salary).

Keep an eye on BYU. Rumors are swirling since the convention. I think BYU may be force to rethink their membership in the WCC. If the WCC decides, most likely, to not give stipends to athletes; that may force BYU back to the MW. And the MW will not take BYU w/o football.

I can't see BYU returning to the MWC. The WCC is mainly a group of rich private schools so their should be no reason that they can't pass the stipends.

While it is most likely that they can pay stipends, it is the principle that the WCC schools are against it and seem to want no part of paying 'fun money' for athletes already getting a 40k/year education for free.

(01-22-2014 03:25 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  CUSA 2.0 was about Cincinnati, Louisville and USF leaving with the football conference expanding to 12. MWC 2.0 was about Utah, BYU and TCU leaving with the football conference expanding to 12.

There is a difference there in that it was about Utah, BYU, TCU leaving, then Boise State and SDSU leaving, then Boise State and SDSU deciding not to leave after all, and in the process of expansion killing off the WAC as an FBS conference.

Much as addicts of conference realignment speculation like to ignore it, the fact is that the brand equity of a conference is built up over a period of time and each conference realignment move imposes a cost. The MWC is going to enjoy stability that CUSA2.0 was not able to enjoy, due to the differences in geography and population distribution, and is going to benefit from that stability.

Other than the P5 Every conf gets watered down with new additions. You probably could even argue the B12 and maybe even the ACC are lessened thru the expansions. [/quote]

(01-23-2014 11:13 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Other than the P5 Every conf gets watered down with new additions. You probably could even argue the B12 and maybe even the ACC are lessened thru the expansions.

[/quote]

For the B12 it was a contraction not an expansion. They are lucky they held together.

I think the MWC is going to have a good decade for the reasons mentioned earlier by Mongoose. Lack of competition for secondary Cali recruits is a huge competitive advantage and the source of a lot of the BCS buster success. The secondary Texas and South recruits get all kinds of competition- maybe 8 or 9 conferences are vying for their services. The higher touted players from out West get nation wide attention, but the next level and JUCOs have fewer suitors. The PAC12 only has so many spots and after that the MWC teams will get their pick of a lot of solid talent. The league will always struggle with TV contracts and revenue, but competitively it will hold its own. I think you'll see 1 or 2 teams ranked most ever year.

(01-23-2014 04:24 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I think the MWC is going to have a good decade for the reasons mentioned earlier by Mongoose. Lack of competition for secondary Cali recruits is a huge competitive advantage and the source of a lot of the BCS buster success. The secondary Texas and South recruits get all kinds of competition- maybe 8 or 9 conferences are vying for their services. The higher touted players from out West get nation wide attention, but the next level and JUCOs have fewer suitors. The PAC12 only has so many spots and after that the MWC teams will get their pick of a lot of solid talent. The league will always struggle with TV contracts and revenue, but competitively it will hold its own. I think you'll see 1 or 2 teams ranked most ever year.

Im not so sure about that. The bottom half of the Pac-12 used to be terrible. There has been a massive upgrade in the coaching level in the lower half of the Pac-12. Guys like Leach, Dykes, and Peterson are now on the scene. That's going to make finding those diamonds in the rough much harder than it was. Plus, MW teams are not getting as many Texas recruits now that TCU has left. Despite its size, California actually produces fewer D1 players than Texas. Yes, there is more completion in the east---but the bulk of the D1 prospects are also there. Besides, its not like no other P5 conferneces recruit California---they all do.

With the improvement of the bottom of the Pac-12, I think there is actually reason to believe recruiting for the MW could get tougher rather than easier.

(01-23-2014 05:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 04:24 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I think the MWC is going to have a good decade for the reasons mentioned earlier by Mongoose. Lack of competition for secondary Cali recruits is a huge competitive advantage and the source of a lot of the BCS buster success. The secondary Texas and South recruits get all kinds of competition- maybe 8 or 9 conferences are vying for their services. The higher touted players from out West get nation wide attention, but the next level and JUCOs have fewer suitors. The PAC12 only has so many spots and after that the MWC teams will get their pick of a lot of solid talent. The league will always struggle with TV contracts and revenue, but competitively it will hold its own. I think you'll see 1 or 2 teams ranked most ever year.

Im not so sure about that. The bottom half of the Pac-12 used to be terrible. There has been a massive upgrade in the coaching level in the lower half of the Pac-12. Guys like Leach, Dykes, and Peterson are now on the scene. That's going to make finding those diamonds in the rough much harder than it was. Plus, MW teams are not getting as many Texas recruits now that TCU has left. Despite its size, California actually produces fewer D1 players than Texas. Yes, there is more completion in the east---but the bulk of the D1 prospects are also there. Besides, its not like no other P5 conferneces recruit California---they all do.

With the improvement of the bottom of the Pac-12, I think there is actually reason to believe recruiting for the MW could get tougher rather than easier.

Very few Texas players went to the MWC when we were there, with the exception of Air Force and they recruit a different kind of player. There were a handful here and there, but in total it was like 30 or so for the rest IIRC, or 4 or so a team.

The WAC and MWC have feasted and continue to feast on the west coast leftovers, as well as the diamonds in the rough from mountain states. There's a reason most of the BCS busters and many near misses came from out west. Recruits are undervalued because of less hype and competition. It's simple supply and demand.

Unlike the other G5 conferences, the MWC has mostly schools that are either the state's flagship/land grant and/or the only game in town. The Pac-12 is the king of the West but there's enough room for another FBS conference that fills a void or a niche in a fast growing region. Stability and geography will be the MWC's best friend since the Pac-12 has no intentions of expanding and even if they do, I really doubt they'll look at any of their schools and the Big XII might go East if they expand, BYU might be a possibility as well but that would still leave the MWC untouched by realignment. California offers the most recruits, the Pac-12 can't have them all and the Phoenix area is becoming a fertile recruiting ground. Although the MWC has no presence in Arizona, it's still in their geographic footprint where recruits are not too far from home and PHX is a big Southwest hub.

The American is a fine conference but it's in the shadow of P5 leagues (SEC, Big XII, B1G, ACC) where one move by any of those leagues can cause a domino effect. They remind me too much of their predecessor, the Big East just before the breakup, too many schools flirting with other conferences or many their intentions publicly known (which I don't blame any school for trying to better their situations). The same happened to C-USA 1.0 and 2.0 where its potential never materialized because most schools were trying to get out and 3.0 more than likely will have the same fate. The MAC will forever be in the shadow of the Big Ten which they realized a long time ago and try to make the best of it. The Sun Belt might have a brighter future than the MAC given its geography but that will take years to materialize.

Like I wrote above, geography and no expansion by the Pac-12 will give the MWC more room to grow compared to its G5 peers. I hope at some point UTEP joins the MWC where it has historical ties and fits the urban mission of most MWC institutions. C-USA 3.0 will eventually grow and I'll enjoy and support the conference as long as UTEP is in it.

Some day the Big 12 could have a change of heart and decide to move westward rather then eastward. If so, I believe it would add BYU and Colorado St. BYU because they are the ND of the west and Colorado St if they continue building their football program. Colorado St would get the Big 12 back into the state of Colorado and also act as the bridge state to BYU and the state of Utah. The MW will survive the loss of Colorado St but would have to add either New Mexico St, Idaho or UTEP as their 12th member.