definitely entering the meat of the schedule

Thu., Jan. 23 vs. UCF * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 9:00 p.m. ET
Sun., Jan. 26 at Temple * TV Philadelphia, Pa. 4:00 p.m. ET
Thu., Jan. 30 at Louisville * TV Louisville, Ky. 7:00 p.m. ET
Sun., Feb. 2 vs. USF * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 12:00 p.m. ET
Thu., Feb. 6 vs. Connecticut * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 p.m. ET
Sat., Feb. 8 at SMU * TV Dallas, Texas 7:30 p.m. ET
Sat., Feb. 15 vs. Houston * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 3:00 p.m. ET
Wed., Feb. 19 at UCF * TV Orlando, Fla. 7:00 p.m. ET
Sat., Feb. 22 vs. Louisville * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 12:00 p.m. ET
Sat., Mar. 1 at Connecticut * TV Hartford, Ct. 12:00 p.m. ET
Thu., Mar. 6 vs. Memphis * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 p.m. ET
Sat., Mar. 8 at Rutgers * TV Piscataway, N.J. 12:00 p.m. ET

Hopefully we can at least split the remaining games with Louisville, UConn, Memphis, and SMU while not dropping any to the rest of the teams we should be able to handle. If we can head into the AAC tourney with 5 or less losses we should have a pretty decent seed for the NCAA tourney.

8-4 looks reasonable--- 2 vs. UConn, 2 vs. UL, 1 at home UM and 1 away SMU, see 4 losses in this group in some combination. 25-6 overall record going into the AAC tourney.

Taking a road trip for the UCF game. Cheap airfare from Dayton, and with family in Orlando it's easy. Bringing 8 to the game.

(01-20-2014 06:21 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  8-4 looks reasonable--- 2 vs. UConn, 2 vs. UL, 1 at home UM and 1 away SMU, see 4 losses in this group in some combination. 25-6 overall record going into the AAC tourney.

Agree--that's a fair assumption. I worry a lot about "February fatigue" hitting this team given their short bench and intensive pressing defense. They need Lawrence back and no season ending injuries.

Thu., Jan. 23 vs. UCF * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 9:00 p.m. ET Win 18-2
Sun., Jan. 26 at Temple * TV Philadelphia, Pa. 4:00 p.m. ET Win 19-2
Thu., Jan. 30 at Louisville * TV Louisville, Ky. 7:00 p.m. ET Lose 19-3
Sun., Feb. 2 vs. USF * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 12:00 p.m. ET Win 20-3
Thu., Feb. 6 vs. Connecticut * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 p.m. ET Win 21-3
Sat., Feb. 8 at SMU * TV Dallas, Texas 7:30 p.m. ET Lose 21-4
Sat., Feb. 15 vs. Houston * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 3:00 p.m. ET Win 22-4
Wed., Feb. 19 at UCF * TV Orlando, Fla. 7:00 p.m. ET Win 23-4
Sat., Feb. 22 vs. Louisville * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 12:00 p.m. ET Win 24-4
Sat., Mar. 1 at Connecticut * TV Hartford, Ct. 12:00 p.m. ET Lose 24-5
Thu., Mar. 6 vs. Memphis * TV Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 p.m. ET Win 25-5
Sat., Mar. 8 at Rutgers * TV Piscataway, N.J. 12:00 p.m. ET Win 26-5

Nothing earth shattering about my pics.. I'll adjust to 25-6 assuming there will be a hiccup game along the way. That game at Rutgers scares me for one. And the home games vs. Memphis, Louisville and UConn are anything but gimmies

7 tough games (4 at home) and five should be non-challenges (some of which will end up challenging us, of course).

I would hope no worse than 8-4 in that stretch. 10-2 would be fantastic.

(01-20-2014 09:10 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  Taking a road trip for the UCF game. Cheap airfare from Dayton, and with family in Orlando it's easy. Bringing 8 to the game.

Just might make this game as well. I'll be in Orlando for work that week, and I'm trying not to schedule anything the night of the game.

(01-20-2014 09:35 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  7 tough games (4 at home) and five should be non-challenges (some of which will end up challenging us, of course).

I would hope no worse than 8-4 in that stretch. 10-2 would be fantastic.

10-2 should be good enough to win the Conference. That's my hope.

(01-20-2014 11:41 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-20-2014 09:35 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  7 tough games (4 at home) and five should be non-challenges (some of which will end up challenging us, of course).

I would hope no worse than 8-4 in that stretch. 10-2 would be fantastic.

10-2 should be good enough to win the Conference. That's my hope.

Almost definitely. 10-2 would get us a 2 or 3 seed in the tournament as well. I don't think its particularly realistic, but that would be fantastic.

I'd be happy with an 8-4 finish as I think that would give us as legit shot to win the conference. Anything worse and I would be disappointed at least somewhat, but with Lawrence sidelined, I do think that could make it tough to keep rolling as guys may start to wear out a little as the dog days of the season wind down.

I figure 6 total losses would probably make us a 3 or 4 seed, if we were able to finish with 4 or 5 total losses, I think we'd be in the conversation for a 2 seed, but probably not in there, unless we take 5 of 6 from U of L, Memphis and UConn, which really seems like a tall order. I'd be happy to split with those three.

The thing that gives me hope as we move into tougher games against UL, Uconn and Memphis, is that we actually have the best front court of that group. If Jackson can stay out of foul trouble, no reason we can't win at least 3 of those 5 games, and maybe even more.

Thu., Jan. 23 vs. UCF-- UC should win.
Sun., Jan. 26 at Temple-- UC should win.
Thu., Jan. 30 at Louisville-- PUSH... Could go either way, but probably UL favored.
Sun., Feb. 2 vs. USF--UC should win.
Thu., Feb. 6 vs. Connecticut--PUSH... Could go either way, but UC should be favored.
Sat., Feb. 8 at SMU-- PUSH... But UC should be favored.
Sat., Feb. 15 vs. Houston-- UC should win.
Wed., Feb. 19 at UCF-- UC should win.
Sat., Feb. 22 vs. Louisville PUSH... Could go either way, but UC will probably be favored.
Sat., Mar. 1 at Connecticut PUSH... Could go either way, but UConn will be favored.
Thu., Mar. 6 vs. Memphis-- UC will be favored.
Sat., Mar. 8 at Rutgers-- UC should win

That's 6 games UC ***SHOULD*** win. You've got to win, as a matter of habit the games you "should" win. Not that it's a given, you still have to get the job done, but UC has been doing this fairly reliably.

There are four games that are "toss-up"/push type games that are really anyone's guess, but that UC should be favored in, mostly because UC either (a) WON the first meeting and (b) because they are played at 5/3 or © because UC is just the better team. IF...if you can win the MAJORITY of these games (ie. at least 2 of the 4) THEN you are doing really well.

There are TWO games that UC will likely be under the gun on.. AT Louisville and AT UConn. Those two games are CRUCIAL. UC has already shown that they can win against a big team on a hostile court (ie. @ Memphis) so they should be "in" these games. IF YOU CAN WIN ONE OR BOTH OF THESE GAMES...especially @Louisville...THEN YOU MAKE A STATEMENT THAT THIS CONFERENCE IS YOURS.

Personally, I think UC loses at least one game down the stretch, but 12-0 is "possible." 10-2 is probably on the top-end of the "realistic" range, 7-5 would be disappointing.

(01-20-2014 12:17 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  Thu., Jan. 23 vs. UCF-- UC should win.
Sun., Jan. 26 at Temple-- UC should win.
Thu., Jan. 30 at Louisville-- PUSH... Could go either way, but probably UL favored.
Sun., Feb. 2 vs. USF--UC should win.
Thu., Feb. 6 vs. Connecticut--PUSH... Could go either way, but UC should be favored.
Sat., Feb. 8 at SMU-- PUSH... But UC should be favored.
Sat., Feb. 15 vs. Houston-- UC should win.
Wed., Feb. 19 at UCF-- UC should win.
Sat., Feb. 22 vs. Louisville PUSH... Could go either way, but UC will probably be favored.
Sat., Mar. 1 at Connecticut PUSH... Could go either way, but UConn will be favored.
Thu., Mar. 6 vs. Memphis-- UC will be favored.
Sat., Mar. 8 at Rutgers-- UC should win

That's 6 games UC ***SHOULD*** win. You've got to win, as a matter of habit the games you "should" win. Not that it's a given, you still have to get the job done, but UC has been doing this fairly reliably.

There are four games that are "toss-up"/push type games that are really anyone's guess, but that UC should be favored in, mostly because UC either (a) WON the first meeting and (b) because they are played at 5/3 or © because UC is just the better team. IF...if you can win the MAJORITY of these games (ie. at least 2 of the 4) THEN you are doing really well.

There are TWO games that UC will likely be under the gun on.. AT Louisville and AT UConn. Those two games are CRUCIAL. UC has already shown that they can win against a big team on a hostile court (ie. @ Memphis) so they should be "in" these games. IF YOU CAN WIN ONE OR BOTH OF THESE GAMES...especially @Louisville...THEN YOU MAKE A STATEMENT THAT THIS CONFERENCE IS YOURS.

Personally, I think UC loses at least one game down the stretch, but 12-0 is "possible." 10-2 is probably on the top-end of the "realistic" range, 7-5 would be disappointing.

Pretty much agree; however, if the low end is 7-5 thats still 24-7, 13-5 overall. Not a bad season and probably anywhere from 5 to 8 seed in the tournament depending on the conference tournament and few other factors.

As long as Mick continues to get this program into the tournament good things are bound to happen because the Cats are probably going to put a few runs together over the years.

The game at SMU two days after playing UConn scares me. I think if we beat UConn we lose to SMU two days later. If we lose to UConn we may be focused enough to win at SMU.

I predict losses at Louisville, at SMU, and at UConn to finish this stretch 9-3. I predict we finish undefeated at home. And so it is written...

(01-20-2014 01:10 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  The game at SMU two days after playing UConn scares me. I think if we beat UConn we lose to SMU two days later. If we lose to UConn we may be focused enough to win at SMU.

I predict losses at Louisville, at SMU, and at UConn to finish this stretch 9-3. I predict we finish undefeated at home. And so it is written...

Agreed on the SMU game... That's one of the reasons I have it as a "PUSH" though UC, especially if we win against UConn, will be "favored."

But yeah, that's a tricky one.

I'm avoiding making a hard-and-fast prediction of how the last 12 play out. Like I said, I think 12-0 is a possibility. 7-5 is foreseeable, but would be (only and merely) disappointing because of the great season we have already put in the books.

9-3 would be completely in the range and I'd be happy with that.

I'm not really that concerned with UConn, they have a very good backcourt but beyond that, there's no one else on that team that can beat you. Louisville is balanced and a pretty solid team, I think we beat them at least once. SMU matches up well with us, but I still believe we're good enough to go to Moody and win. Memphis I think we can take again. My fear is we'll drop one or two we're not supposed to. The good news, is that we have another week of lesser competition before heading out to Louisville and if we beat them on the 30th, the rest of the pack will need us to lose at least 3 to overtake us. Every week we get through, the harder to touch us it becomes.

A conference title would be a lovely feather in the cap, the 3-4 seed would be even nicer.
I feel pretty good about this team.

(01-20-2014 12:17 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  Thu., Jan. 23 vs. UCF-- UC should win.
Sun., Jan. 26 at Temple-- UC should win.
Thu., Jan. 30 at Louisville-- PUSH... Could go either way, but probably UL favored.
Sun., Feb. 2 vs. USF--UC should win.
Thu., Feb. 6 vs. Connecticut--PUSH... Could go either way, but UC should be favored.
Sat., Feb. 8 at SMU-- PUSH... But UC should be favored.
Sat., Feb. 15 vs. Houston-- UC should win.
Wed., Feb. 19 at UCF-- UC should win.
Sat., Feb. 22 vs. Louisville PUSH... Could go either way, but UC will probably be favored.
Sat., Mar. 1 at Connecticut PUSH... Could go either way, but UConn will be favored.
Thu., Mar. 6 vs. Memphis-- UC will be favored.
Sat., Mar. 8 at Rutgers-- UC should win

That's 6 games UC ***SHOULD*** win. You've got to win, as a matter of habit the games you "should" win. Not that it's a given, you still have to get the job done, but UC has been doing this fairly reliably.

There are four games that are "toss-up"/push type games that are really anyone's guess, but that UC should be favored in, mostly because UC either (a) WON the first meeting and (b) because they are played at 5/3 or © because UC is just the better team. IF...if you can win the MAJORITY of these games (ie. at least 2 of the 4) THEN you are doing really well.

There are TWO games that UC will likely be under the gun on.. AT Louisville and AT UConn. Those two games are CRUCIAL. UC has already shown that they can win against a big team on a hostile court (ie. @ Memphis) so they should be "in" these games. IF YOU CAN WIN ONE OR BOTH OF THESE GAMES...especially @Louisville...THEN YOU MAKE A STATEMENT THAT THIS CONFERENCE IS YOURS.

Personally, I think UC loses at least one game down the stretch, but 12-0 is "possible." 10-2 is probably on the top-end of the "realistic" range, 7-5 would be disappointing.

Good post IMO.

this site projects 26-5

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_217_Men.html

Without Lawrence I'd say 7-5 is most likely. They're just too thin down low and that will eventually catch up to them.