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The Race for the AAC
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MemphisCanes Offline
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Post: #1
The Race for the AAC
It's a five horse race.

Cincinnati 5-0 16-2
Louisville 4-1 15-3
Memphis 3-2 12-4
Connecticut 2-2 14-3
Southern Methodist 2-2 12-4

Houston 2-2 10-7
Rutgers 2-2 8-9
UCF 1-3 9-6
South Florida 1-3 10-7
Temple 0-5 5-10

The AAC is a thing of beauty for those who like symmetry. It's got 5 tourney teams, and 5 teams that won't make the CBI. Also, everyone plays everyone at home and away.

Right now, only SMU (2nd) out of the Big 5 has played a harder conference slate than Memphis (3rd). Cincy and Louisville have played the two easiest (9th and 10th, respectively). Of course, we'll all have the same (or very similar) conference SOS at the end of the year.

Cincy- SMU, @MEM, @HOU, RUT, TEM.
Louisville- @UCf, @RUT, MEM, SMU, HOU.
Memphis- @USF, CIN, @ LOU, @ TEM, CON.
UConn- @HOU, @SMU, UCF, @MEM.
SMU- @CIN, CON, @LOU, USF.

So far, Memphis and SMU are the only two in the Big 5 to play three other big 5 teams.

UConn is the only Big 5 team to lose to a non-Big 5 team in conference so far.

SMU has the easiest schedule from here on out, playing only 5 more games against the top 5 and getting 3 of those at home.

Memphis is next, playing 5 more games and getting 2 at home.

Cincy still has to play @SMU, @LOU and @CON. If they're still in front after that stretch they deserve the title.

I think the eventual champ may be the team that can manage not to slip up against the Bottom 5. UConn is already at a disadvantage.
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2014 03:40 PM by MemphisCanes.)
01-17-2014 03:38 PM
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MemphisCanes Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
Folks are only interested in moping about the loss, not talking about the conference race?

Dayum.
01-17-2014 04:08 PM
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Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
I thought it was really good stuff. Right on.

Thanks.
01-17-2014 04:16 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
I'll play.

SMU lost their center for up to six weeks. Best case is he returns right before the Memphis game on Feb 1st.

I wouldn't consider them a tourney team. Their only really good win is vs. UConn. Beat A&M but...lost to UVA and Arky.

They are a tough team that Memphis will need to be fully prepared for when the Tigers travel to Dallas.

Houston is still a spoiler in this race, and at 2-2 (and having played Cinci, UL and UConn) will likely fight SMU for the 5th spot. There is some talent on that team and despite the drubbing at the hands of UL will also be a tough trip thier place.

The eventual champ will likely be the one that best holds home court and fares the best vs. Houston and SMU.

Cinci is doing that right now, UConn, not so much (vs. Tx teams).
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2014 04:22 PM by salukiblue.)
01-17-2014 04:20 PM
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MemphisCanes Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
SMU is at 29 and climbing in the kenpom polls. They may settle back down w/o their center, but there in as a double-digit seed in most early brackets. I think Cincy and SMU are potentially the worst matchups for Memphis in the conference, both are tough, rebound well and love the paint.

Houston just lost by almost 40 to Louisville.
01-17-2014 04:27 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
(01-17-2014 04:27 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  SMU is at 29 and climbing in the kenpom polls. They may settle back down w/o their center, but there in as a double-digit seed in most early brackets. I think Cincy and SMU are potentially the worst matchups for Memphis in the conference, both are tough, rebound well and love the paint.

Houston just lost by almost 40 to Louisville.

Alright mister "one game doesn't matter." Houston also beat UConn and lost to Cinci on a last second shot.

SMU is in 25 of the 43 brackets in the bracket project. Sure they are a fringe tourney team, but there is a lot of bball left. They have their chance, though.

Most people see this as a 4 bid league. SMU's wins to get them into an at-large will have to come at the expense of one of the other four. If it becomes a "beat each other up" league, four is likely the max with all the teams getting crappy seeds.

Ideally, what would be best is if Louisville separated itself from the pack, only losing to Memphis twice. Then Ville becomes a 2/3 seed and Memphis gets street cred for beating OSU and getting wins against Zags and two to UL. No bad losses.
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2014 04:38 PM by salukiblue.)
01-17-2014 04:34 PM
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Brother Bluto Offline
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Post: #7
RE: The Race for the AAC
I think Cincinnati is gonna fall off eventually. Just my gut feeling.
01-17-2014 04:54 PM
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fsquid Online
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Post: #8
RE: The Race for the AAC
I think once you get 5 losses, you won't win the conference, so we have 2 more we can lose.
01-17-2014 04:58 PM
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Joe1 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: The Race for the AAC
(01-17-2014 04:08 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  Folks are only interested in moping about the loss, not talking about the conference race?

Dayum.

I'm interested in talking about the conference race. I wouldn't sleep on Houston beating a few more folks. I would think they are nit good. How does Cincy's schedule look going forward? They have to lose soon or later.
01-17-2014 05:08 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #10
RE: The Race for the AAC
(01-17-2014 05:08 PM)Joe1 Wrote:  
(01-17-2014 04:08 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  Folks are only interested in moping about the loss, not talking about the conference race?

Dayum.

I'm interested in talking about the conference race. I wouldn't sleep on Houston beating a few more folks. I would think they are nit good. How does Cincy's schedule look going forward? They have to lose soon or later.

Any team with a player named Chicken better be ok.

Cinci still has home and home vs. UConn and UL. Get Memphis and Houston at home. @ SMU.
01-17-2014 05:12 PM
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MemphisCanes Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
(01-17-2014 04:54 PM)Brother Bluto Wrote:  I think Cincinnati is gonna fall off eventually. Just my gut feeling.

Me too, and I like our chances against them in the return game.
01-17-2014 05:51 PM
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TripleA Online
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Post: #12
RE: The Race for the AAC
I don't think winning the conference is that important. Winning the conference tourney is more important. And getting a few key wins is important. We have one @ Louisville. We need 2 more between @SMU, @UC, @UConn and Louisville.

Also, we have a slight advantage b/c we've already played UC, UL and UConn once apiece. None of them have played any against each other yet. So we've had 3 of those games, and they have had one apiece.
01-17-2014 08:39 PM
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MemphisCanes Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
(01-17-2014 08:39 PM)TripleA Wrote:  I don't think winning the conference is that important. Winning the conference tourney is more important. And getting a few key wins is important. We have one @ Louisville. We need 2 more between @SMU, @UC, @UConn and Louisville.

Also, we have a slight advantage b/c we've already played UC, UL and UConn once apiece. None of them have played any against each other yet. So we've had 3 of those games, and they have had one apiece.

No, it's not. The conference tourney would be a bit more important, in my mind. The most important thing is winning enough games against the Top 5 to get a good seed (5 or better) and preparing our team to play multiple tough opponents in a row.
01-18-2014 10:27 AM
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MemphisCanes Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
Notable AAC games today:

Louisville @ UConn (a hug game for both).
SMU @ UCF (the two best rebounding teams in the AAC)
Cincy @ USF (should be a walk for Cincy, but we should pull for the upset)
01-18-2014 10:30 AM
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salukiblue Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
(01-18-2014 10:30 AM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  Notable AAC games today:

Louisville @ UConn (a hug game for both).
SMU @ UCF (the two best rebounding teams in the AAC)
Cincy @ USF (should be a walk for Cincy, but we should pull for the upset)

Like AAA noted, does it really matter who wins the regular season?

Do we really root for Cinci to lose to a bad team and, in effect, fall out of the T25 and not be seen as good of a team, or do we want Cinci to remain a T25 team when Memphis plays them again?
01-18-2014 10:59 AM
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tigers1125 Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
(01-17-2014 04:20 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  I'll play.

SMU lost their center for up to six weeks. Best case is he returns right before the Memphis game on Feb 1st.

I wouldn't consider them a tourney team. Their only really good win is vs. UConn. Beat A&M but...lost to UVA and Arky.

They are a tough team that Memphis will need to be fully prepared for when the Tigers travel to Dallas.

Houston is still a spoiler in this race, and at 2-2 (and having played Cinci, UL and UConn) will likely fight SMU for the 5th spot. There is some talent on that team and despite the drubbing at the hands of UL will also be a tough trip thier place.

The eventual champ will likely be the one that best holds home court and fares the best vs. Houston and SMU.

Cinci is doing that right now, UConn, not so much (vs. Tx teams).

Have you watched SMU play? They are a very good team. Obviously well coached but with talent too. Tough game home or away.
01-18-2014 12:30 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
I acknowledged they were a good team, just not ready to dub them a tourney team. Especially in light of their weak ooc schedule. That's all.
01-18-2014 03:22 PM
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MemphisCanes Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
(01-18-2014 10:59 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(01-18-2014 10:30 AM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  Notable AAC games today:

Louisville @ UConn (a hug game for both).
SMU @ UCF (the two best rebounding teams in the AAC)
Cincy @ USF (should be a walk for Cincy, but we should pull for the upset)

Like AAA noted, does it really matter who wins the regular season?

Do we really root for Cinci to lose to a bad team and, in effect, fall out of the T25 and not be seen as good of a team, or do we want Cinci to remain a T25 team when Memphis plays them again?

To paraphrase Jim Mora, you play the conference slate to win the conference slate. I want to win.
01-19-2014 11:48 AM
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MemphisCanes Offline
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RE: The Race for the AAC
About a third of the way through conference play and the standings are as follows:

Cincinnati 6-0 17-2
Louisville 5-1 16-3
Southern Methodist 3-2 14-4
Memphis 3-2 13-4
Houston 3-2 11-7
Connecticut 2-3 14-4
Rutgers 2-3 8-10
UCF 1-4 9-7
South Florida 1-4 10-8
Temple 0-5 5-11

Cincy has played the easiest conference slate of any of the AAC teams, so I think their record is a bit inflated. Leaving Memphis out, Louisville has probably been the most impressive AAC team in conference play.
01-20-2014 02:52 PM
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JFlight21 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: The Race for the AAC
Cincinnati plays the best defense in the conference and has the best big man, Justin Jackson, in the conference. They'll be in the race all year. With UC's ability to switch on screens with great athletes at positions 1-5 (and maybe the two best perimeter defending bigs in the conference in Rubles and Jackson), teams with good guards and lesser post players are a very good matchup for UC. Look at the three other top teams (UL, Memphis, Uconn), all three teams are strong in the backcourt with relative weaknesses in the front court. That bodes well for UC down the stretch.
01-22-2014 05:09 PM
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