RE: WWE Network model will eventually be the ESPN Model
Guys, at some point it isn't going to matter what games ESPN will play to try and protect its revenue stream. People aren't going to pay it. Eventually someone is going to start an internet broadcast news service, entertainment network, weather channel, etc. Watch that USSC case with Aereo as well (Aereo will likely win).
I'd rather not pay for Major League Baseball, NFL, NBA, NHL, etc. And at some point, I won't have to continue to pay for sports programming I don't want to.
This is coming. Within 5 years. And it will turn college sports on its head.
This could cause chaos in college football. Especially in top heavy conferences. For example, The UT Longhorn Network could be a problem for the Big XII, as there will likely be massive differentials between what UT, OU and OSU can receive for their product and what the others can demand. Florida State, VT, and Clemson have a LOT more support than Wake, Pitt, or Uva over in the ACC. This could even cause issues with the (gasp) SEC. This could cause conference shifts or possibly more schools to go independent (see UT). For the Big Ten, this will expose their decision to take Rutgers and Maryland (teams in huge markets that largely won't deliver them, especially when people are in a pay for view scenario).
For the G5 conferences, its a mixed bag. Most of these games will continue to be broadcast, either on cable or on broadcast internet. There will be more game choices for TV though. The Belt will end up with more exposure and probably a little more money. Everyone else will end up the same.
The coming changes to pay per view for NCAA football really could come down hard on low intensity teams in the P5, such as Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, Rutgers, Maryland, Pitt, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Miss State, Kentucky, Purdue, Indiana, Washington State, and Oregon State if they get shut out of equal revenue by the greater producing conference members or in a worse case, get left behind when high earning conference mates just leave them.
The SEC - 10 high intensity/large fan bases, 4 lower intensity groups. Lowest chance of a split. There are too many good teams here that pull their own weight.
B1G - The B1G doesn't admit that they make mistakes. But I would imagine that Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State might get a bit peeved about a greater and more obvious revenue distribution model.
BigXII - In serious danger of breaking up due to the extreme asymmetry of fan intensity/support. UT and OU are in a league by themselves. OSU carries their own weight. Tech, Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas....not so much. If this model develops, watch for UT and possibly OU to go indy. Which would be catastrophic for some of the Big XII smalls. Baylor and Tech should be thankful for the GOR. But at some point, the differential in income might make that irrelevant.
ACC - A problem as well. Huge asymmetry in fan support. Clemson and Florida State are already not happy with the basketball focus. God help the lower teams if Florida State and Clemson start talking to UT and OU.
Pac12 - Pretty much evenly split. Everyone will be carrying Washington State, but that, plus geography, isn't going to be enough to knock that conference apart.
Certainly there are GOR's and exit fees to consider. But in a pay per view (or pay per channel) scenario, there are going to be some teams leaving a LOT more money on the table with their current conference affiliations.
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