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School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
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Wilkie01 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-15-2014 04:47 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 03:50 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 01:02 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 12:25 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Only a UK fan could figure out some kind of formula that would rank everyone in The AAC ahead of Louisville. I would be interested in selling how you screwed the numbers to list Louisville next to Buffalo. Typical LPT bull sh it.
CJ

Jim, Louisville has 12,058 undergraduates, a 161 USNWR ranking, is not ranked in ARWU, has an average football attendance of 52,914, and has an outstanding revenue stream of $96+ million. Adding in a new column for merchandise will help because you are looking to be top 30. Academic prowess pulled you down a bit; your peers are Ole Miss, WVU, and Northern Illinois. If anything, these rankings should show how much the ACC believes in the direction that Louisville is headed. Despite the reputation of the lowest common denominator of UK's fanbase, I don't spend all day trying to figure out another way to screw over Louisville. Using these same numbers on the SEC board, we discussed where Louisville would fit in the SEC in these crazy scenarios.
Not true. UofL has 15,893, 07-coffee3

I went by NCAA reporting on undergraduate enrollment for the 2012-13 year since that is the latest numbers. Either the NCAA messed up, or Louisville reported the wrong number. Are you sure that 15,893 does not include graduate students?

Yes:

Undergrads 15,893
Postgraduates 6,400
Total Students 22,293
01-15-2014 05:32 PM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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Post: #22
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-15-2014 04:53 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Excellent analysis. This shows what I've been saying all along - the Big 10 is king when it comes to long-term value. The SEC has to stay aggressive if they want to keep up with the Big 10 in revenue.

One comment on the revenue part, though. Much of the revenue comes from the conference. This makes schools like Mississippi State, Purdue, WSU etc look much better than AAC/MWC schools despite the fact that they don't actually bring in any more revenue.

It'd be pretty easy to subtract conference revenue and grade based on that.

As schools alone in a vacuum? Absolutely, the Big 10 is king. Rutgers meets their average score, and Maryland is in the bottom 1/3, but it is currently impossible for them to take a school in an existing or contiguous state that would improve their average.
01-15-2014 05:41 PM
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ncbeta Offline
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Post: #23
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-15-2014 05:27 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 04:28 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  I don't know how difficult it would be to do, but I would love to see these reordered utilizing only 1, 4 and 5. While some views those rankings as critical, I would like to see where these same schools rank using just the data from attendance, football attendance and athletic revenue. I think we would see some interesting differences.

UCF and ECU sure like that suggestion! Surprisingly, it does not help the G5's much in comparison to the P5's. Boise State, for example, is still just a 2 average. They have about 12,000 students, 34,000 football attendance, and 33 mil revenue. By these football only numbers, they are almost identical to Hawaii. Boise State has just found a way to field outstanding teams without the "data" benefits.

We can compromise. Just throw out #3 04-cheers
01-15-2014 05:43 PM
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KevinSmith Offline
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Post: #24
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
Interesting formula but flawed.Undergrad pop does not matter unless it's a live-on-campus school - commuter schools can be huge and no one cares about athletics. Also location pop is region-specific, in big pro-sports cities big school that is not already big time has a HUGE disadvantage.

Also current P5 DO NOT WANT TO ADD TEAMS unless it adds money to all current members. It's not merit. It's not effort. It's CREAM.

There maybe a few teams admitted to big money country club but it wil be less than 5, it will take 5-10 years and all schools competing for that spot will need to spends P5 money from now on even to qualify, including full cost of attendance.

Realignment process is about apartheid and in 5-10 yrs there will be a de facto FBS D-1AA outside P5 and this he the way P5 schools want it.
01-15-2014 10:24 PM
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Marge Schott Offline
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Post: #25
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-15-2014 04:46 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 03:23 PM)Hitch Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 12:19 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  One of the things that really stood out to me is the incredibly solid numbers across the board for Virginia Tech. Some astute Big 10 folks on here have pointed out how VT would be a good consideration for addition for their conference despite the absence of AAU. They are better academically in both categories than Nebraska and are a very close match in every category except overall revenue to Iowa.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but the B1G doesn't like to take the second fiddle in states. I don't see Vtech getting an invite before UVA.

Sure, but I don't see UVA and VTech as much different than, say, Indiana/ Purdue, UF/FSU, or USC/Clemson. Each has its strengths. I'm not saying that the Big 10 would choose VT over UVA, but if for whatever reason UVA was not available, the Big 10 could do much worse than VT. In other words, if UVA did not exist and VT was exactly as it is now but had the designation of flagship, it would be an add, academically speaking, that is a bit higher than Nebraska. Of course, Nebraska has legendary status as a football school, but it can definitely be said that if the Big 10 is looking for great academics as well as a bump in football, VT should be a viable option.

Sorry, VT and ACC folks. I don't think VT is going anywhere. We are playing hypotheticals since that is all SEC and Big 10 folks have to do at the moment. Feel free to poach our schools in an imaginary world.

VT's enrollment and research expenditures are significantly larger than UVA's, both of which are staples of the Big Ten.

I agree that VT would be an excellent addition, but I doubt the Big Ten has any interest in VT. And I think I can fairly confidently say that VT isn't interested in the Big Ten as long as UVA is in the ACC. (at which point the SEC would probably be more favorable to them than the Big Ten, as evidenced by the response UNC was getting when it was rumored the Big Ten was targeting them).
01-16-2014 01:51 AM
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Marge Schott Offline
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Post: #26
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-15-2014 05:32 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 04:47 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 03:50 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 01:02 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 12:25 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Only a UK fan could figure out some kind of formula that would rank everyone in The AAC ahead of Louisville. I would be interested in selling how you screwed the numbers to list Louisville next to Buffalo. Typical LPT bull sh it.
CJ

Jim, Louisville has 12,058 undergraduates, a 161 USNWR ranking, is not ranked in ARWU, has an average football attendance of 52,914, and has an outstanding revenue stream of $96+ million. Adding in a new column for merchandise will help because you are looking to be top 30. Academic prowess pulled you down a bit; your peers are Ole Miss, WVU, and Northern Illinois. If anything, these rankings should show how much the ACC believes in the direction that Louisville is headed. Despite the reputation of the lowest common denominator of UK's fanbase, I don't spend all day trying to figure out another way to screw over Louisville. Using these same numbers on the SEC board, we discussed where Louisville would fit in the SEC in these crazy scenarios.
Not true. UofL has 15,893, 07-coffee3

I went by NCAA reporting on undergraduate enrollment for the 2012-13 year since that is the latest numbers. Either the NCAA messed up, or Louisville reported the wrong number. Are you sure that 15,893 does not include graduate students?

Yes:

Undergrads 15,893
Postgraduates 6,400
Total Students 22,293

It's only full-time undergraduate students. The NCAA presumably uses the same list that the Federal Government uses.

http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/InstDetails....343020414d
01-16-2014 01:55 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #27
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-16-2014 01:55 AM)Marge Schott Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 05:32 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 04:47 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 03:50 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 01:02 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Jim, Louisville has 12,058 undergraduates, a 161 USNWR ranking, is not ranked in ARWU, has an average football attendance of 52,914, and has an outstanding revenue stream of $96+ million. Adding in a new column for merchandise will help because you are looking to be top 30. Academic prowess pulled you down a bit; your peers are Ole Miss, WVU, and Northern Illinois. If anything, these rankings should show how much the ACC believes in the direction that Louisville is headed. Despite the reputation of the lowest common denominator of UK's fanbase, I don't spend all day trying to figure out another way to screw over Louisville. Using these same numbers on the SEC board, we discussed where Louisville would fit in the SEC in these crazy scenarios.
Not true. UofL has 15,893, 07-coffee3

I went by NCAA reporting on undergraduate enrollment for the 2012-13 year since that is the latest numbers. Either the NCAA messed up, or Louisville reported the wrong number. Are you sure that 15,893 does not include graduate students?

Yes:

Undergrads 15,893
Postgraduates 6,400
Total Students 22,293

It's only full-time undergraduate students. The NCAA presumably uses the same list that the Federal Government uses.

http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/InstDetails....343020414d

Yes, that makes sense.

A school like UC benefits when using "total" rather than "full-time" students because at any one time we have almost 6,000 students on co-op (co-op is mandatory for almost half of our undergraduate students, and highly encouraged for the rest). That makes us look 15-20% bigger than we actually are because students take longer to graduate when they take a co-op.
01-16-2014 09:20 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #28
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-15-2014 10:24 PM)KevinSmith Wrote:  Interesting formula but flawed.Undergrad pop does not matter unless it's a live-on-campus school - commuter schools can be huge and no one cares about athletics.

How many FCS schools are commuter schools? I can't think of any. Many AAC schools were arguably commuter schools 30-40 years ago, but not any more.

And you can't just use on-campus housing to measure "commuter schools." Ohio State has less than 10,000 students living on-campus, but that doesn't mean there's 47,000 students living at Mom and Dad's house and driving to class.
01-16-2014 09:30 AM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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Post: #29
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-16-2014 09:20 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-16-2014 01:55 AM)Marge Schott Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 05:32 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 04:47 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 03:50 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Not true. UofL has 15,893, 07-coffee3

I went by NCAA reporting on undergraduate enrollment for the 2012-13 year since that is the latest numbers. Either the NCAA messed up, or Louisville reported the wrong number. Are you sure that 15,893 does not include graduate students?

Yes:

Undergrads 15,893
Postgraduates 6,400
Total Students 22,293

It's only full-time undergraduate students. The NCAA presumably uses the same list that the Federal Government uses.

http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/InstDetails....343020414d

Yes, that makes sense.

A school like UC benefits when using "total" rather than "full-time" students because at any one time we have almost 6,000 students on co-op (co-op is mandatory for almost half of our undergraduate students, and highly encouraged for the rest). That makes us look 15-20% bigger than we actually are because students take longer to graduate when they take a co-op.

Yes, that does make sense. Thanks for the information.
01-16-2014 10:42 AM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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Post: #30
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-16-2014 09:30 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 10:24 PM)KevinSmith Wrote:  Interesting formula but flawed.Undergrad pop does not matter unless it's a live-on-campus school - commuter schools can be huge and no one cares about athletics.

How many FCS schools are commuter schools? I can't think of any. Many AAC schools were arguably commuter schools 30-40 years ago, but not any more.

And you can't just use on-campus housing to measure "commuter schools." Ohio State has less than 10,000 students living on-campus, but that doesn't mean there's 47,000 students living at Mom and Dad's house and driving to class.

Additionally, undergraduate on-campus vs. off-campus is not so important for stadium attendance... it matters for alumni donors down the road. The split of donations/contributions from someone who lived on campus vs. off campus would be quite the extensive study. I would contest that the average Joe living in Houston that attended Arizona State is probably watching them most weeks, getting back to campus every few years, and trying to attend a bowl game every once in a while whether they lived on or off campus. Many "off-campus" kids live within a few blocks of campus during their school tenure, anyway. Most are still a part of the campus culture.

Like I said from the beginning, none of these numbers are perfect representatives and there are caveats all over the place, but it gives a pretty good indicator.
01-16-2014 10:47 AM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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Post: #31
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-16-2014 01:51 AM)Marge Schott Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 04:46 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 03:23 PM)Hitch Wrote:  
(01-15-2014 12:19 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  One of the things that really stood out to me is the incredibly solid numbers across the board for Virginia Tech. Some astute Big 10 folks on here have pointed out how VT would be a good consideration for addition for their conference despite the absence of AAU. They are better academically in both categories than Nebraska and are a very close match in every category except overall revenue to Iowa.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but the B1G doesn't like to take the second fiddle in states. I don't see Vtech getting an invite before UVA.

Sure, but I don't see UVA and VTech as much different than, say, Indiana/ Purdue, UF/FSU, or USC/Clemson. Each has its strengths. I'm not saying that the Big 10 would choose VT over UVA, but if for whatever reason UVA was not available, the Big 10 could do much worse than VT. In other words, if UVA did not exist and VT was exactly as it is now but had the designation of flagship, it would be an add, academically speaking, that is a bit higher than Nebraska. Of course, Nebraska has legendary status as a football school, but it can definitely be said that if the Big 10 is looking for great academics as well as a bump in football, VT should be a viable option.

Sorry, VT and ACC folks. I don't think VT is going anywhere. We are playing hypotheticals since that is all SEC and Big 10 folks have to do at the moment. Feel free to poach our schools in an imaginary world.

VT's enrollment and research expenditures are significantly larger than UVA's, both of which are staples of the Big Ten.

I agree that VT would be an excellent addition, but I doubt the Big Ten has any interest in VT. And I think I can fairly confidently say that VT isn't interested in the Big Ten as long as UVA is in the ACC. (at which point the SEC would probably be more favorable to them than the Big Ten, as evidenced by the response UNC was getting when it was rumored the Big Ten was targeting them).

The SEC would love VT, UVA, or both. With a presence in Texas and Missouri as well as establishing the foundation for the network, adding value, not just markets, should (and I think will) be the SEC's aim. I would not have any hesitation to adding FSU, Clemson, UVA, VT, UNC, NCSU, or Duke in any combination. Of course, our wanting them to come and any of those schools actually wanting to join are two different things.
01-16-2014 10:53 AM
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Post: #32
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-15-2014 04:53 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Excellent analysis. This shows what I've been saying all along - the Big 10 is king when it comes to long-term value. The SEC has to stay aggressive if they want to keep up with the Big 10 in revenue.

One comment on the revenue part, though. Much of the revenue comes from the conference. This makes schools like Mississippi State, Purdue, WSU etc look much better than AAC/MWC schools despite the fact that they don't actually bring in any more revenue.

It'd be pretty easy to subtract conference revenue and grade based on that.

There are also a lot of differences in accounting methodology for tabulating revenue, so I think combined with the issue above, merchandise sales should replace this metric.
01-16-2014 11:07 AM
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Post: #33
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
From the relatively clean start BBB set up it'd be easy to start getting caught in the weeds of adding too many factors, but on further reflection I thought there were a couple of tweaks that may be reasonable.

First, while football is primary, basketball does count for something, particularly in terms of possible inventory for conference TV networks (for those which have one). Perhaps attendance could be a combined metric, with football weighted heavier than basketball (say 80/20) to make some accounting for hoops.

The other possible metric that could be included is endowment - while not strictly an athletics measure, neither is undergraduate attendance, but it does show a measure of the school that's not reflected just in the revenue figure.
01-16-2014 11:53 AM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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Post: #34
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-16-2014 11:53 AM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  From the relatively clean start BBB set up it'd be easy to start getting caught in the weeds of adding too many factors, but on further reflection I thought there were a couple of tweaks that may be reasonable.

First, while football is primary, basketball does count for something, particularly in terms of possible inventory for conference TV networks (for those which have one). Perhaps attendance could be a combined metric, with football weighted heavier than basketball (say 80/20) to make some accounting for hoops.

The other possible metric that could be included is endowment - while not strictly an athletics measure, neither is undergraduate attendance, but it does show a measure of the school that's not reflected just in the revenue figure.

Yes, good suggestions. I am a bit burned out on collecting data for the time being, but if anyone wants to send me this data in an easy to enter format, I'll be glad to add it.
01-16-2014 01:49 PM
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HuskyU Offline
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Post: #35
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
Not including Independents (BYU and Notre Dame), UCF and UCONN have the best "worth" in the remaining G5 (even above multiple schools already in the P5).

When can we expect our invites to the P5's?

Seems to show there's a lot more to "conference realignment worth" than just the numbers.
01-17-2014 08:57 AM
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Post: #36
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-17-2014 08:57 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  Not including Independents (BYU and Notre Dame), UCF and UCONN have the best "worth" in the remaining G5 (even above multiple schools already in the P5).

When can we expect our invites to the P5's?

Seems to show there's a lot more to "conference realignment worth" than just the numbers.

You have to be in the right place at the right time. UConn only has one possible home (ACC). Barring a move of Florida schools, UCF only has one remote possible home (Big 12).
01-17-2014 09:23 AM
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Post: #37
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
Budgets have as much to do as success with getting into the P5 for Utah, TCU and Louisville.

UConn leads pretty easily among the G5, but they are dependent on the ACC having a place for them. Wasn't a good idea to have the high profile lead role in suing the ACC back in 2005 and then electing that AG to a higher office.
01-17-2014 09:25 AM
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Post: #38
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-17-2014 09:23 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-17-2014 08:57 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  Not including Independents (BYU and Notre Dame), UCF and UCONN have the best "worth" in the remaining G5 (even above multiple schools already in the P5).

When can we expect our invites to the P5's?

Seems to show there's a lot more to "conference realignment worth" than just the numbers.

You have to be in the right place at the right time. UConn only has one possible home (ACC). Barring a move of Florida schools, UCF only has one remote possible home (Big 12).

Very true. I would say that UCF to the Big 12 is a lot more possible because the Big 12 is a lot more likely to expand to 12/14 before the ACC goes to 16.

And you're right on the lawsuit. UCONN should've taken a backseat like the rest of the suing schools. We'll just have to keep winning National Championships in our Olympic sports, build a better football product, and hope that the P5 want to expand their memberships.
01-17-2014 09:45 AM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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Post: #39
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
(01-17-2014 08:57 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  Not including Independents (BYU and Notre Dame), UCF and UCONN have the best "worth" in the remaining G5 (even above multiple schools already in the P5).

When can we expect our invites to the P5's?

Seems to show there's a lot more to "conference realignment worth" than just the numbers.

Definitely true.

BYU - Religious center and Sunday competition issue
UCF - Proximity to two powerhouses and relative newcomer in an old boys club
UCONN - ACC spite and Big 10 hesitation to go so far from their norm (neither AAU nor contiguous), not to mention very flash in the pan football
01-17-2014 09:57 AM
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Post: #40
RE: School's Worth in Realignment - Big Board
I can't do it today, but it sounds like people have a real interest in seeing combined data for the following categories. Please add or modify and keep it to data that is easily accessible:

Vested Interest Support - Undergraduate population (combine with living alumni if that data is available)

Academics - USNWR and ARWU combined

Finances - Overall athletic gross revenue combined with endowment. Receipts from conference membership stay; conference money comes from the schools associated with it, not the organization itself. If a member becomes such a drag that it substantially hurts the membership, they will get kicked out. It has happened before, and will happen again. No judgement calls by us for this purpose.

Following - Football/Basketball attendance (80/20 split) and merchandise ranking. I really don't want to try with TV ratings because it is so dependent on scheduling and platform, and market share is nearly impossible to truly estimate. UT haters love bringing up the LHN numbers for their games last year, but we all know that would not be the case if UT was playing on a national network instead.


That is 4 categories, which will put schools on a 4.0 scale instead of 5.0, which may be easier to follow. I will use sliding scale this next time. I have a feeling that the results will be similar to my first run at it, but we'll see.
01-17-2014 10:56 AM
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