Crystal Ball Time: January 2020
Six years away.
What happens in the college world between now and then?
My Guesses
The Power 5.
Greater revenue in store for the Power 5. Smart TV's, smart boxes, the increase in app delivery means better demographic information than ever and finally targeted ad delivery (ie. the folks on the other side of the tracks on the nice side of town watch the same game but get different ads) means better ad revenue. Those smart TV's, smart boxes and apps also provide an avenue to reach cord cutters and cord nevers who will pay a subscription fee of 7.5X to 10X for the content they want vs. what is being charged to the cable and satellite for lower tier content. A year of SEC Net at current rates will run you between $110 and $150 a year and ESPN owning SEC Net they might bump that number much higher and throw in the ESPN and ESPN2 SEC games as part of the subscription. Providers like ESPN will sell the same piece of content multiple times. Georgia Tech at Georgia may go out over ESPN, be sold online via an SEC subscription and an ACC subscription.
Membership at least through this period will be more stable than we have grown used to.
Sports bubble, sports schmubble, the truly big money is yet to come.
The Group of 5.
While losing financial pace with the P5, the G5 will also see a dramatic increase in revenue and exposure. They will fill more time on basic cable, regional cable, local TV, and benefit from the same technologies that will spur even greater wealth for the P5.
Talk of TV markets will still be around but it will no longer center on Nielsen TV markets, the market will be how many people will pay to watch, how many will tune in to the basic cable national telecasts, and the regional telecasts.
Membership with the likely exception of the MWC, will almost certainly go into major turmoil. Schools valued solely for being in a large TV market will see their worth plummet unless they are delivering viewers or advancing the success of the league on the field or the court. There is within each of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, and Sun Belt wide disparity in committment to athletics demonstrated in facilities, salaries, success, and capacity to sell tickets.
Schools advancing their league in the hunt for the access bowl slot, national rankings and even the NCAA Tournament will grow weary of institutions that undermine that chase with poor results and no cogent plan to change that situation.
Most likely two of the G5 conference names will go to the dustbin of history as these schools realign radically to best position for the new income stream and to best align successful teams to challenge consistently for the access slot, Top 25 football rankings, and NCAA tournament berths.
The Rest of Division I
The remaining 200+ schools will see dramatic change as well. The cost of doing business will rise rapidly and only a select few leagues will be strong enough to keep close to the pace of revenue growth of the G5 (just forget the P5). Outside of a few strong leagues, the remainder will have to choose between becoming the permanent Washington Generals and opting for Division II or III. I think by January 2020, the first 10 to 15 or so have opted out, starting a trend that won't stabilize for a number of years until it has settled in around 280 to 300 left in Division I.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2014 06:00 PM by arkstfan.)
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